1. Exclude Non-Pilot Error Weather caused crashes. (No QF
don't come clean on this while airlines with fatal crashes could be clean in this department!)
2. Exclude design failure incidents.
3. Exclude 3rd party caused incidents such as ATC error, pilots crashing onto the victim's planes, terrorist/hijacking.
4. Decide if the analysis will be done on a per trip or per seat trip or per seat km basis.
5. Put a risk value on the airline's operations in terms of weather, type, safety procedures, security risk, terrorist risks.
An unsafe airline is where incidents occur due to the fault of the airline or its staff/crew.
In Indonesia there are airlines that had never had a crash but I consider as not safe! Oversimplification, or using the number of crashes or fatalities skews the reality!
Garuda with 8 fatal crashes over it's history. Fleet of 60 aircraft
Merpati with numerous crashes over it's history. Fleet of 60 aircraft
Mandala with crashes in its prop days, now uses 732s only and have had no fatalities since. Fleet of 15 aircraft
Bouraq, again, no crashes since the 732s came in. Fleet of 10 aircraft
Batavia, never crashed. Fleet of 5 - 7 aircraft.
Star Air, only incident was it slipped on a wet runway. Fleet of 6 aircraft.
Jatayu, no crashes, not non-fatal accidents. Fleet of 10 aircraft
Lion Air, 1 crash no fatalities due to equipment and pilot error. Fleet of 20 aircraft.
Now, who's the safest ? Who's the least safe?
Most would probably say Jatayu is safest with Garuda and Merpati as unsafe...
BUT, Jatayu's fleet breaks down often! PK
-JGW breaks down every month at 1 airport only! Several of it's aircraft are flying on "borrowed time" with components missing.
Now, what do you think?