United777
Topic Author
Posts: 2196
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 8:04 am

Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 2:53 pm

After what happened today and from all the people I do know at Boeing I have came across a prediction about Boeing. That is I think in 10-20 years time Boeing will start to end all of it's commercial aircraft unit and focus only on defense and space. There will be still a maker of jets but just won't be a part of Boeing anymore. I've been reading that right now Boeing is only making two percent of commercial aircraft sales and really does not see a market it for it in the next 10-20 years.

I think with the way things are going at Boeing unless we get more executives up there that are from the "old Boeing" we will see Boeing only as a defense and space company. Think about it all the highest executives jobs at Boeing now are pretty much old McDonnell Douglas workers and defense and space was there game.

Also think 10-20 years from now. We are going to see way more countries out there making new jets. Not just USA, France (Europe), Canada or Brazil. We will see China, Japan and even India.

It looks like Airbus is here to stay ahead of Boeing when it comes to commercial jets. I think the 757/767 should have been cancelled in like 1999-2000.

Anybody agree with me?

Farhan
Seattle, USA
 
deltaflyertoo
Posts: 1479
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 2:58 pm

No I don't agree...not a market? Please. Like Boeing is going to hand the 737 seat market on a silver platter to Airbus, China or even India? Not going to happen. As for the 747, a replacement is going to be needed and most airlines are not going to opt for the A380. They've will also probably develop a new kind of 737-900 to replace the 757. The next 20 years look bright for Boeing in the commercial sector.

Also, don't forget, whether airlines are Airbus or Boeing customers, the airlines will demand Boeings existance when it comes to price stability for these new planes. India, China and Japan also don't have the proven safety record, or brand for that matter to move in on share if Boeing were gone. I.E. every airline would build 90% of its fleet around Airbus if that happened. Why would Boeing allow this?
 
garnetpalmetto
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Joined: Tue Oct 21, 2003 1:38 am

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 3:04 pm

Let's also not forget the coming 7E7. An ultra-efficient aircraft? I don't see how it could miss.
South Carolina - too small to be its own country, too big to be a mental asylum.
 
ckfred
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 3:12 pm

I don't agree, either. For one thing, a lot of airlines don't care for Airbus aircraft. A friend of mine who is a commercial pilot calls them Scarebuses, because they are automated to the point that the plane second guesses the pilot. He won't fly one.

Second, people have been writing obituaries for Boeing for years. The 747 was supposed to be a white elephant after the energy crisis of 1973. The plane is still in production.

After EA got Boeing to stretch the 757 to 180 seats in a two-class configuration, it was supposed to be a white elephant, too. But for the 737-900, it would probably continue in production until the 7E7 flies.

Boeing's problem isn't that Airbus builds better aircraft. The problem is that Boeing answers to shareholder who want to see earnings growth. That means selling planes at prices that return a profit. Since Airbus is owned by European governments, its focus is on production, regardless how little profit is made on each plane.

Third, what drove Phil Conditt to resign was all of the problems on the millitary side of the business, both aircraft and satallite launches.

Considering that the 7E7 is more efficient than the A330, and the A380 has a parking problem (see the forum on space problems at LAX), Boeing is in a very good position.
 
flyLAX
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 3:13 pm

Look people. Boeing isn't going anywhere. For all of you who seem to be happy to think that will happen are just flat out wrong. Boeing is here to stay. Airbus WILL not put them out of the commercial aircraft business period. Don't even ask me to back up this statement with facts because you all should know them by now. The industry needs and wants Boeing and will continue to for years to come. Boeing may be in trouble at the moment but that will soon change. For those of you who think Airbus wins; you're wrong again. Airbus is just ahead right now, but will soon change as well. So please, enough with all this "Boeing is finished" crap.
 
Tiger119
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 3:16 pm

If Boeing stops building commercial aircraft, I imagine the price for an Airbus will go "sky high."
Flying is the second greatest thrill known to mankind, landing is the first!
 
737-990
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 3:39 pm

Re:"Boeing is only making two percent of commercial aircraft sales and really does not see a market it for it in the next 10-20 years".

Where did you come up with that figure? Last I saw Boeing and Airbus have an almost even split of the over 100 seat market. It might not be the 60-70% it had in the Eighties but it's still alot. The 737 and 777 are doing just fine and of course the 7E7 is just on the horizon to replace the 757 and 767.

As far as other countries go the only way it can be done (as was proven by Airbus) is if their governments spend billions of Dollars in subsidies and force their national airlines to purchase those aircraft (like Russia). The japanese have so far been stoped in this ambition by becoming major sub-contractors for Boeing, and I don't see them changing this arangement in the near future as it looks like they will be working on the 7E7.
Happiest is a man who has his vocation as a hobby
 
cloudy
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 4:04 pm

I think the only thing that would put Boeing out of the business would be a serious 3rd player. If it were not for Airbus and Lockheed, Mcdonald Douglas would still be in the business. Otherwise they could go down to 40 or even 30 percent but could nevertheless keep a viable product line. The commercial jetliner business will grow in time, and there will be plenty of room for two competitors.

Profit margin does not mean much without volume, and vice versa. Also, you have to look at the total profit of a given business over several economic cycles. Commercial airplanes look bad relative to defense now simply becuase the economy has been down and because of the 9/11 related wars. Go back about five years and the exact opposite was the case - commercial markets were more lucrative. In fact, people were then pointing out the huge advantage Boeing had over Lockheed Martin in surviving the defense drawdown - it had a commercial business to fall back on.

Boeing will not willingly stop being competitive in the commercial aircraft market. That is certain. What is NOT certain is whether Boeing's executives (particularily the notorious Stonecipher) are willing to see that you have to be willing to take risks and make new products in order to stay competitive. Boeing is very innovative on the drawing board but has a mortal fear of actually cutting metal. Everyone fears screwing up and then getting blamed and punished by others who never would have had the courage to try themselves. This is a very government-like attitude - and I suspect it comes from having to deal with the government so much. In this respect, Boeing's defense business may actually be a disadvantage. It gets the whole company used to doing things by way of delay, beauracracy and politics - it creates a culture where PROPOSING things is thought of as brilliant but DOING things usually gets punished.

[Edited 2003-12-02 08:13:38]
 
MxCtrlr
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 4:07 pm

United777, the best advice I can give you is to put the crack pipe down, step away from the rocks, dude and check into the nearest Betty Ford Clinic!

Boeing ain't going anywhere, any time soon. Their current management trials and tribulations are nothing to predict such cataclysmic conjecture.

I too would like to see your sources for the 2% aircraft sales figures. I tend to believe that particular figure is WAY off or WAY misunderstood by you.

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Freight Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool
DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
 
User avatar
clickhappy
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 4:16 pm

I think he is trying to say commercial aircraft sales only account for 2% of Boeing's gross profit.
 
lehpron
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 4:35 pm

I will agree considering the current market projections state more for regionals, they just might take over the market by then. I'm guessing Airbus will try to compete with Boing wherever they go.

I am sure it will not happen with 10-20 years, that is too soon, maybe 50-70 years down the line. By then there should be a market for extreme transportation systems that would make everything we see as giant taxis.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
Leskova
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 4:41 pm

Ckfred, that has to be one of the most ridiculous posts that I've read in quite a while...

First of all, Airbusses do not "second guess" the pilot - that's an old cliche that was "created" after there were some accidents/incidents with pilots who were not fully used to flying Airbusses: ask some pilots who actually fly them (because I doubt that your friend flies one) - they'll tell you what they're actually like...

Second of all, do you live in the 1980s? Check the facts - Airbus is not owned by European Governments - it is owned by EADS and British Aerospace (or however they call themselves these days).


Other than that, I can only agree with the general sentiment here: the market wants more than one manufacturer of large aircraft, Boeing - just as Airbus - isn't going anywhere.
Smile - it confuses people!
 
United777
Topic Author
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 4:42 pm

 Smile I like some of your guys response! Honestly though I've been talking to some Boeing workers here in Seattle and I got a lot of my information from them. What I really tried to say or I guess I put some stuff in the wrong way. What I really tried to say is that I don't see 737,747,777 and 7E7 under the Boeing name in a few years. I think the commerical group will be it's own company all together.

 Smile Hey by the way for some of you people. Dude this is a public forum and I understand if some of you don't agree with me but dude if you want to say stuff back to me stay back from the personal stuff. Anything else is fine with me.  Smile

Clickhappy - Dude thanks a lot, that's what I meant to say!

Farhan
Seattle, USA

[Edited 2003-12-02 08:43:59]
 
Shenzhen
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 4:55 pm

As everyone in this forum knows, you either bring new products to the market place, or risk the chance of being pushed out.

Boeing is at a cross roads with their product line. If they invest in the 7E7, which I personally see them doing, this will probably be the start of a new line of products that will see them through the foreseeable future.

In a few years time, Airbus will be at this same cross road, and will also need to make some major decisions on revamping their entire product line (less the A380). If they decide to make incremental changes, like what they did with the A340, in 10 years, they could be in the same boat as Boeing is today.

The major difference in the future, Airbus can not rely on the EU to finance 100 percent of the development costs, as they did with Airbus' current product line. This will make the future decisions much harder then their past.

Hopefully, everyone will continue to succeed, because many families rely on both these fine companies for their welfare.

Cheers.
 
gamarocchi
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 5:57 pm

I think also that the current few years are really important for Boeing's
survival in the civil aviation business. My idea is that they have been
cutting too many product lines already, for example I think cutting the 757
is overkill and if they also cut the 747 I think they are halfway through
going out of business. I sincerely hope their sales can pick up cause I
think having AT LEAST two strong aircraft manufacturers is good for us in
general, as it can keep the price of aircrafts (and consequently, travel)
down. But I think they are basing too much of their planning on temporary
issues. It is not a good idea to cut a product line or a factory just
because the economy is weak, bringing the product back once the economy
recovers will be more expensive probably than it would have been just
keeping it alive even if it does not sell. I think in this American
companies are a little short sighted because usually immediate return is
favored rather than sound investments in the future. I think this is a lot
relevant to the Toyota/GM confrontation (even more than to the Boeing/Airbus
one).

 
Greg
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:12 pm

I have yet to figure out how a change in managment automatically equates to the death of a company! It does not.

Leadership changes almost annually at any number of very visible, very successful corporations.

The original post was short sighted, irrelevant, and shows some major ignornance of the industry, the economy, and most of all, common sense.

Brgds.
 
Vimanav
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:29 pm

Every company has a lifespan which is cyclical in nature. Failure to improvise or adapt to market requirements would well mean the death knell of the company. Boeing is in neither of these stage, though its going through a difficult phase.

As we look at newer and leaner managment systems, it is not difficult to visualize a Boeing Airplane Co. which hives off its Commercial Airplanes as a separate company altogether. Yes they have been kind of upstaged by the Europeans, but let's not forget that they make darned good planes. The 737 line may safely be expected to remain in production until at least 2012. Ditto for the B777. It's too early to comment on the 7E7 though but given Boeing's track record, its unlikely that this programme would not be a success. Let us not forget that highly capital intensive industries like aviation are particularly prone to heavy political lobbying and therefore there will still be a very large number of customers globally who may want Airbus aircraft but will still opt for Boeing due to political pressures.

As for the aircraft manufacturing industries of other nations go, let's not forget that the Americans and Europeans have decades of a headstart as compared to the other nations in the so called race, Japan, China, Brazil and India. Even the Russians who have a pretty strong aviation lineage are hard pressed to produce an aircraft that can be a global success in the twenty first century. I'd give 50+ years to the countries above (except Brazil) before they have an aircraft manufacturing industry which can be even remotely equal to the Americans or the Europeans.

I however do not discount the possibility of one of these nations probably discovering an alternate fuel / energy source which may revolutionize the current tried and tested modes of fuelling transportation much sooner than 2020. After all necessity is the mother of invention.

rgds//Vimanav
Sarfaroshi kii tamannaa ab hamaare dil mein hai, Dekhnaa hai zor kitnaa baazu-e-qaatil mein hai
 
Andreas
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:31 pm

leskova ROFLMFAO...that is the only thing that remains to be said to the likes of ckfred...knows nothing, understands nothing, remembers old nonsenical posts from earlier on, hears only rumours and then only half of it, and then posts the whole mixture as a strightforward factual statement....oh well...

just a few thoughts:

1. It would be desastrous if Boeing went out of business. We call such a situation a monopoly, and trust me, nobody wants that, not even Airbus!!! (Think of the situation on the chip markets, Intel and AMD...Intel would be horrified if AMD went out of business).

2. Why would they do go out of business? They account for about half the aircraft sales worldwide, and Airbus is not willing to push up capacities to take away further sales from Boeing, that would be deadly in terms of risk!

3. I wouldn't give too much credibility to the statements of "workers", there's a reason why they are workers and not top management, and they certainly do not have access to all the info necessary to give judgement.

4. Even the stupidest management will after some time recognize strategic mistakes and adjust to it. Customers will buy even me-too products just to put an end to any sort of monopoly.
I know it's only VfB but I like it!
 
gamarocchi
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Tue Dec 02, 2003 11:55 pm

Andreas, it is very true what you say. In fact Airbus does not WANT to have more than 60% of the market, one reason is to avoid causing commercial troubles between Europe and America as Boeing going down would surely become a political issue in America. Anyway about monopolies... Microsoft for instance does not mind being one in the consumer market (and don't tell me about Apple, in the CONSUMER market it is practically non existant.. as for Linux, maybe in the future but..) and actually they seem to do what they can to remain one.
It will be humiliating anyway to Boeing if they were to shut down the 747 and 717 programs. And you could foresee a future where a third contender from Brazil or China or Russia comes up and then things would become really bad. Even if I think maybe in 20 years there will be traffic enough to sustain three aircraft makers again...
 
B747FAN
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 12:01 am


Do you actually believe that the US Govt will allow a huge company like Boeing to fold, or cease production of commercial aircrafts. Impossible. Just like they bailed out General Motors, and the major airlines they will do so for Boeing if the time comes. Not to mention, Boeing's alliances with Japan, China and numerous other countries who have a significant part in aircraft manufacturing. Boeing may be a US company, but its infrastructure is definately global. And like some of you have stated above, there are numerous development plans on the drawing board. Boeing engineers are definately looking into the future and experimenting with revolutionary materials and energy sources and futuristic concepts way past the 7E7. The first thing they teach you in business school, "If you sit still, the world will pass you by."
) He turns not back who is bound to a star. - Leonardo Da Vinci.
 
Andreas
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 12:14 am

Gamarocchi: It is correct what you say, I probably created a misunderstanding in my post: Of course everybody strives to be number one on their respective world markets, but NOT WITHOUT at least an existing competitor, whoever it is, because of the problems that would create (even Microsoft does recognise this in the meantime, maybe not Mr. Gates, but the rest of the gang seems to understand  Big grin).

regards

Andreas
I know it's only VfB but I like it!
 
CanadianNorth
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 12:34 am

The 777 is coming along nicely.
The 737NG is doing just fine.
The 7E7 is on the way down the pipe.
Boeing has way more than 2% of the 100 seat market.
Safety and efficiency will go down and prices up at Airbus if Boeing goes.
The U.S. government probably will do something to try to keep Boeing in the bizz.
Most airlines like the Boeings.
BOEING IS HERE TO STAY!



CanadianNorth
What could possibly go wrong?
 
gamarocchi
Posts: 179
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 12:51 am

Andreas I do agree with you. In fact I think some Microsoft people were embarassed by Bill Gates some times, as they know at the very end it is best for Microsoft to have some competition.

As for Boeing I do hope the 7E7 is a big success,but especially I do hope traffic picks up nicely and airlines start again showing big profits. I would like a lot if they made a nice new 747 ADV, as I think the 380 is not nice looking (still an impressive aircraft though!).
 
CitationX
Posts: 122
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:50 am

It would be nice if the US government decided to force the major aerospace conglomerates such as Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman United Technologies and L-3 Communications to break up. Since the mergers of the 1990s we have seen gross mismanagement, a total lack of cost and schedule control, a stagnation of technological innovation, massive layoffs, and serious ethical scandals in the aerospace/defense business.

If Boeing exits the commercial airliner business, it will have a poisonous impact on the United States balance of trade. It is in our national interest to have a major presence in this business in the future. One way to insure this is to force Boeing to spin off the commercial airplane business into a separate company or get DQ'ed when bidding for future defense contracts (that should get Stoney's attention!).
 
ILoveORD
Posts: 193
Joined: Mon Sep 15, 2003 5:20 am

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 2:43 am

I don't agree either.

United777,

Who the hell are you to be posting predictions about the future of Boeing's Commercial division? Unless you're an analyst at Goldman (which I highly doubt) and/or company observer, why don't you the spare the rest of us members and help get rid of rid of these kind of b/s forums so we can all have one less line to skim over in the forum index, please.


"I think," "I think," "I think," yeah, yeah, so you say; put up some charts, graphs, tables, data, etc. to back up your claims before making such a prediction; or worse yet, "borrowing" somebody else's work/article (see link below); yeah, you've been reading; next time cite your sources. Rule #8 in discussion forum terms and conditions: "If you have something to say, please do so; however be sure to mention your sources, perhaps with an HTML link or reference to a publication. If you are merely providing an opinion, please MENTION THIS in your post. We would like to avoid arguments based on rumors or misinformation."

If everybody started posting their own (unqualified, unfounded, and unintelligible) predictions, this place would be cluttered with utter nonsense (though it already is)....something you help to abate.

"Boeing is only making two percent of commercial aircraft sales and really does not see a market it for it in the next 10-20 years."

What? What are you talking about??: are you saying that only 2% of Boeing's sales are made by commercial aircraft or 2% of entire commercial aircraft sales are Boeing planes?? In either case, you're DEAD wrong!

According to Boeing Co. and charts offered by the Associated Press in many newspapers today, in the business section dealing with the Condit retirement, Boeing's 2002 sales and operating revenues were as follows:

Military aircraft and missile systems: 25%
Space and communications: 20%
Boeing capital corp. and other: 02%
Commercial airplanes: 52%

Yes, commercial aircraft sales account for more than half of Boeing total sales and operating revenues.

As far annual sales in recent years is concerned:

1999: approx. 57 billion
2000: apporx. 50 billion
2001: approx. 57 billion
2002: approx. 53 billion

Yes, Boeing's annual sales have not dropped as significantly (and in case of 2002, higher sales than 2000) post 9/11 as some people would have you believe.

Additionally, if you mean to infer Boeing is only making 2% of total commercial sales, then you're wrong again. According to article below, Airbus has 50% of market share, then in a likelihood, Boeing has a good chunk (definitely more than 2%) of the other 50%; likely around 40 or so, accounting for smaller plane manufacturers, such as Saab, Embraer, etc.

Here's an article that deals with the issue at hand. I think we can all read it and then come up with our own, somewhat informed opinions...

http://www.buffalo.edu/reporter/vol34/vol34n21/articles/Boeing.html?print=1




[Edited 2003-12-02 18:59:39]
Backhanding the left into submission, one activist judge at a time.
 
flyingbronco05
Posts: 3484
Joined: Fri May 10, 2002 11:43 am

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 3:10 am

If Boeing ends, there will only be Airbus making "commercial" jets and that is a monopoly, which is illegal.

Boeing isn't going anywhere.

FB05
Never Trust Your Fuel Gauge
 
gamarocchi
Posts: 179
Joined: Mon Dec 01, 2003 1:03 am

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 3:20 am

ILoveORD I think the article you posted the link of was written before the announcement of the 7e7 right? Well, the 7e7 seems a committment to stay in the civilian aircraft business, and I feel quite sure that Boeing is not going to leave the market as things stand now (and I do think that things are likely to get better in future). Anyway what do you think will happen if a third aircraft maker enters in the market for jets bigger than a regional jet (imagine Embraer 5/8 years from now, or maybe a Chinese maker) and it has success?

Also while I believe Boeing will not abandon and all the evidence is there to support this idea, if boeing announced that they will kill the 7e7 project I will change my mind...
 
United777
Topic Author
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 3:35 am

IloveORD - Dude take it easy man! Hey man if you didn't like my topic I didn't ask you to read it and for you to reply a whole story book to me. Damm some of you take this stuff a little too serious somtimes.

By the way. ORD sucks dude!  Smile

To everbody else: For the record I never said Boeing is going out of business and is going nowhere! All I said when it comes to the commerical aircraft side I don't see it being part of Boeing in maybe 20 years. I think it is possible for it to be a whole different company. There is no point on having a divison such as commerical when it only accounts for 2% of gross profit. Boeing is more than commerical now. There is way more money and defense and space.

Farhan
Seattle, USA
 
bustaphil
Posts: 117
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 9:47 pm

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 4:07 am

I also believe, that Boeing will stay in the civil aviation business respectively continue manufacturing civil aircrafts for quite a time!
As Andreas already stated the "competitor-issue" alternatively the "monopoly"-issue" is one of the main arguements! Besides a US government would never allow to let a company like Boeing end it's civil aircraft production...
But Boeing will have quite a challenge with catching up with Airbus (I assume a lot of people will probaply deny this fact...  Laugh out loud )!!! This will for sure be not very easy! You simply have to accept the fact, that Boeing overslept a lot of things...

Besides I don't understand the hostility going on in here! If somebody has something to post than he or she shall do so! That's his or her given right! Besides the majority here are some self appointed experts! If we were real experts we wouldn't be posting in here...

[Edited 2003-12-02 20:26:00]
FLYING the best thing on earth!!!
 
Alessandro
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Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2001 3:13 am

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 4:41 am

My guesses is that Boeing and Airbus goes together into one company called
Bobus in 10-20 years time and Boeing only keep the military part for themselves. Embraer is definitly going to stay in the biz, Bombardier as well,
otherwise I only envision the Russian/Ukrainan as manufacturer of larger civilian jet engined planes, Antonov, Beriev, Illjysin, Sukhoi, Tupolev and Yakolev will continue their low output of planes.
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
srbmod
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 8:56 am

Perhaps Boeing will spin off the Commercial Aircraft Division as a way to fund future projects for the other divisions. But it is highly unlikely in the near term. Now 10-20 years down the road, Boeing could be forced to do something this drastic if the 7E7 turns out to be a flop, or if Embraer makes significant inroads into Boeing's marketshare (could be possible if the Embraer 170/175/190/195 family spawns off larger versions).
 
planemaker
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RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 10:38 am

In case no one has seen this:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3258116.stm

Pentagon freezes Boeing contract

The US military puts an $18bn deal to buy Boeing tanker planes on hold while it looks into the firm's links with an ex-Pentagon official.

Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
bizelite14
Posts: 13
Joined: Wed Dec 03, 2003 12:34 pm

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:09 pm

I think it's pretty clear that United777 is on the defensive for making an unprecedented, and false prediction on the direction of Boeing.

Furthermore I dont think the phrase "dude, take it easy...don't take this so seriously" is warranted in replying to "IloveORD"'s thorough, wonderfully constructed, and heart-felt response. This is a forum where ideas are entertained, but one must expect them to be taken seriously (otherwise users wouldnt be paying $25 just to write!).

I really appreciate "IloveORD"'s response because that is the type of rebuttal that proves United 777's "thesis" (or lack thereof) WRONG! The only way that you will be taken seriously is by backing up your claims.

And on the issue of the forum and its use as many have decided to comment: I would argue that its existence is for debate and discussion, but certaintly not the place for "hasty generalizations" and other mechanical means of rhetorical fallacies.

Alexander N. Fondrier (R -CT)
 
gigneil
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Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 1:15 pm

Its hardly an unprecedented prediction.

Even some Boeing advocates have pointed to the declining profit margins in the BCAG and increasing margins in IDS as reason Boeing might just discard commercial craft as too much work for not enough return.

Its the definition of capitalism to cut your losses and bank on your strengths. If Boeing gets tired of losing to Airbus, or if they start winning by bidding with a razor thin margin, they might choose to put their money where it makes money.

Make no mistake, as an American I'd feel something missing without new Boeing aircraft rolling off the line, but as a businessman I'd completely understand their choice.

That all having been said, I think it fairly improbable that it will be the actual outcome. Boeing will make strides against its market erosion with the initial 7E7, and expand on that strongly with a new product lineup centered around its technology advances. I don't think any conservative Boeing fans have too terribly much to lose sleep over.

N
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1664
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 2:51 pm

First of all, IloveORD did a great job in rebutting the "predicition" that Boeing will sell off their commercial airplane division.

Regarding operating margins...
Form 2002 10K
------------------------------------------------------
Commercial Airplanes

(Dollars in millions) 2002 2001 2000

Revenues $28,387 $35,056 $31,171
% Of Total Company Revenues 53% 60% 61%
Unit Cost Method
Operating Earnings $2,847 $2,632 $2,736
Operating Margins 10.0% 7.5% 8.8%
Program Accounting Method
Operating Earnings $2,017 $1,911 $2,099
Operating Margins 7.1% 5.5% 6.7%
Research and Development $768 $858 $574
Contractual Backlog $68,159 $75,850 $89,780

----------------------------------------------------------

Whilst the operating margins in 2003 are considerably lower, this is mainly due to one time charges for competion of the 757 184 million, prepaid pension expense 1.6 billion, goodwill, and of course reduced deliveries.

Now, regarding the statement that commercial only contributes 2 percent of the Gross profits... Compare commercial to the whole company.

Consolidated Results of Operations

(Dollars in millions) 2002 2001 2000

Revenues $54,069 $58,198 $51,321
Operating Earnings $3,868 $3,896 $3,058
Operating Margins 7.2% 6.7% 6.0%
Net Earnings $492 $2,827 $2,128
Research and Development* $1,639 $1,936 $1,998
Effective Income Tax Rate 27.1% 20.7% 29.0%
Contractual Backlog $104,173 $106,591 $120,600

Cheers
 
bustaphil
Posts: 117
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 9:47 pm

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 5:22 pm

Gigneil
I totally agree with your posting except for
I don't think any conservative Boeing fans have too terribly much to lose sleep over

I personally do have the impression that Boeing's future seems to be quite gloomy!

I think this article describes best the current situation with Boeing!

http://www.economist.com/agenda/displayStory.cfm?story_id=2260617

especially

Boeing’s civil-aviation arm has also been struggling under the weight of various problems. Airlines have experienced their worst crisis ever in the past couple of years thanks to a combination of terrorism, the war in Iraq and the SARS virus. Not surprisingly, the main aircraft-makers have suffered along with their customers: Boeing will deliver around 275 aircraft this year, compared with 620 in 1999. Airbus has been hurt too, but not so badly, hence the expectation that it will overtake Boeing in deliveries this year. Thanks to Airbus’s new A380 super-jumbo, demand for Boeing’s flagship 747 jumbo has fallen. So the company is pinning its hopes on its new 7E7—the E is for efficient. This would replace its ageing 767 and compete with the A330-200.

hits the nail on the head! So I wouldn't say that Boeing's future especially for the civil a/cs looks bright! So United777 statement respectively prediction might go a little bit too far but it certainly goes into the right direction! As already stated earlier Boeing overslept a lot of things!

Cheers from Austria
FLYING the best thing on earth!!!
 
lehpron
Posts: 6846
Joined: Tue Jul 10, 2001 3:42 am

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 7:13 pm

"So the company is pinning its hopes on its new 7E7—the E is for efficient. "

This is bad because they did not mention the 73x series planes, if Boeing is betting the farm on the 7E7, then they are really on thin ice. THink it'll be another 707/747 type deal for them?

Keep in mind most of us think it may be successful just because Boeing is even bothering to pursue it, as they went after SC, most people backed them up.

That last statement was not meant to be an "A vs. B" thing, just a pride issue over technicalites.
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
Shenzhen
Posts: 1664
Joined: Wed Jun 25, 2003 12:11 pm

RE: Future Boeing Prediction:end Of Commercial Aircraft

Wed Dec 03, 2003 9:23 pm

"""This is bad because they did not mention the 73x series planes, if Boeing is betting the farm on the 7E7, then they are really on thin ice. THink it'll be another 707/747 type deal for them?"""

Boeing are betting 5 billion, less then 2 years cash flow. Pull your head out. The only reason I say this is becuase you start another thread that basically mimicks this one.

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