I give US until Memorial Day. It's unfortunate, as I have been flying US quite a bit over the past year, and I have been very impressed with their service.
As for who could benefit/be harmed by this, I see the following:
US Airways assets:
: Finally, Northwest will have a hub in the Northeast. It won't be near the size of US' current operation, but it will still be a respectable operation. This hub could come at the expense of MEM
might be more inclined to just feed its pax through DFW
, or IAH
: au revoir. Just too many hubs in the Great Lakes region
: I don't know about this one. DL
won't touch it, it would just siphon off ATL
won't touch it, instead they would build up RDU
(which I think they will do...they have all of Terminal 3 to themselves at RDU
doesn't have the money to touch it. That leaves NW
has already picked up PHL
, so I don't think they could make a move, especially if they keep MEM
. That leaves Continental, and for some reason, I don't see them at CLT
...the only way I could really see them at CLT
is by ditching CLE
and having those pax go through CVG
. Southwest would be at CLT
in a heartbeat, with flights to many of their eastern seaboard destinations...this could be an easy 50-70 flight station by the end of the year for Southwest, and they will have the planes to do it (they have all these new planes coming, and they haven't allocated a lot of them yet).
(I'm grouping these together, since they share a lot of the same qualities): This will be a dogfight between AA
. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if these two just split these three airports down the middle. AA
, and US consitute the top 3 at each airport, while everyone else is a good ways behind them. I don't see CO
, or others making a big move for these facilities. In the end, AA
will have about 200 daily flights at both LGA
, about 100 at DCA
will have about 150 at BOS
, about 100 at DCA
. Either AA
will pick up the shuttle, CO
will not. If CO
wanted a shuttle, they would/should run it through EWR
...in my mind, EWR
is a lot easier to get to for all of Midtown/Downtown (especially with AirLink...only 2 (very crowded) stops between EWR
and NYP...and EWR
is pretty close to the Holland Tunnel.
I think these scenarios will occur:
: will pick up the Southern slack right away. Instead of US predominately serving a lot of the Carolinas, it will be Delta. Eventually, AA
might have some of this out of RDU
, but it will predominately be DL
will have increased presence in the Northeast Corridor as well.
: they get a ton too. A lot more presence in the Northeast Corridor, which should help.
: they lose their code-share partner...losing a lot of east coast presence. Might be gone by May 2005.
: they get PHL
...which gives them a larger presence in the Northeast.
: maybe move CLE
...but that's it. Not much more.
: a nice big operation at CLT
...this will certainly benefit them. With US gone at PHL
and a weaker NW
operation there, they will certainly expand at PHL
as well. They might also start a smaller station at PIT
), USA - Florida">MCO
), USA - Nevada">LAS
, and PHX
getting service. No more than 20 flights a day. It looks like a good win for Southwest.
: not much they can do. They would have to wait until the 190s come, but who knows what will happen in a year.
: maybe a little bit larger at PHL
, but they will have to contend with Southwest. They also will add service to CLT
, but just to ATL
/F9: no real change...they don't overlap with US that much.