Matt D
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USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:01 am

No disrepect meant to all of the hard working folks of USAirways, and you have my condolences. But all signs seem to point to their imminent shutdown and liquidation, unless they pull off a real longshot miracle. Not likely given the current business climate.

So let's pretend you are all bettin' folks. What are your predictions for when USAirways shuts down-either through sale (a la Americans mercy killing of TWA) or Creditor demanded liquidation?

My guess is within 90 days, or approximately April 15.

If they can last that long, then my second guess will be sometime between Labor day and Halloween. After all, if they can make it to summertime, which is the busiest time of year, then that will see them through one last "fire sale".

Look to see ridiculous fares such as $129 R/T PHL-LAX.

When such fares start appearing, they are always the last gasp of life from an airline in its death throes. Remember Nationals Unrestricted $69 R/T's from LAX-LAS about a month before they went under?



[Edited 2004-01-10 18:02:49]
 
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RayChuang
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:04 am

I think US will be gone within 60 to 90 days.  Sad

And you know there will be a major dogfight between CO, DL and UA for the former US routes and there will be a major dogfight between WN and FL for route authorities from PIT and PHL.
 
yanksn4
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:20 am

Unfortunately US A I R WAYS is gone.  Crying Now is american going to take over the carolinas/lga and Ua going for maybe Reagan?

BTW- if the UA/US merger had gone through, I think this would not be happening.
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iflyatldl
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:20 am

Except for the Trans-Cons, DCA and LGA slots, maybe some Trans-Atlantic routes and the Shuttle, US doesn't really have a lot to fight over sadly enough. I could see maybe something with CLT and PHL, but overall, US's route Network wasn't that profitable. We all know Florida routes are a dime a dozen. A carrier anounces we're starting service to X City, FL and other carriers response is: Yeah, whatever.
Ah, Summer, Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox and Beer.....
 
MD88Captain
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:20 am

I don't see a major dogfight to buy/acquire any routes. DAL and other have the ability to just add flights into former US Airways markets. No of the airlines are at full capacity. U's demise will just be absorbed by the marketplace.
 
leviticus
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:24 am

This is a very strange thing, USAirways is dying. But simultaneously they are about to join Star Alliance. How does that go together ? Maybe they have some secret plan or something.
 
panaman
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:30 am

All I can say is use your frequent flyer miles quick.......!
Sorry I moved from SXM, looking for a new house on Anguilla now!
 
kaitak
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:30 am

Being part of an alliance won't save them. I think we're seeing the beginning of the end . . . and a headache for Airbus, which now has dozens of A32Xs to place - not going to do much for the price of new aircraft, is it.

I think WN will ensconce itself in PHL and AA (being already at RDU) will establish its hub as the dominant one in NC. Sad to see a big airline go, particularly when it's taking some great old names with it - Mohawk, PSA, Piedmont - but that's the market economy.

I wonder, however, if US's collapse will be enough to save UAL.
 
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RayChuang
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:31 am

MD88Captain,

I think the more likely prospect if US does fold is the dogfight between WN and FL for route authorities out of PHL and PIT. Given the low seat-mile cost structure of WN and FL, they could fly many former US routes and still make revenue from the flights. Remember, FL already has a presence at both PIT and PHL, and WN has a presence at PIT and will soon do a major presence at PHL by the end of 2004.

Given that prospect don't be surprised under this circumstance that FL may ask Boeing to keep the 717-200 line open, because FL is going to need a lot more 712's to fly many former US routes out of PIT and PHL. And it could mean much more 737-700 sales to both WN and FL in the long run.
 
rockyracoon
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:33 am

Weaken themselves up so UAL can buy them out? Only thing I don't think they've got the financial capabilities right now.

peace
 
yanksn4
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:38 am

Could we see maybe UA picking up some the former US planes? Maybe a Ua A330?
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rockyracoon
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:39 am

Or UA could speed up phasing out their 737, with a bunch of US 320s and 319s.
 
jetbluefan1
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:40 am

I really hate to say this, but US Air will be gone by April 30th  Sad It's going to be so sad - it's such a great airline that I've always enjoyed flying.

JetBluefan1
 
worldtraveler
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:43 am

the key to US' longevity will be how willing any other carrier is to keep US operating in the markets they acquire. The value of US' assets is not the real estate they own or lease but in the revenue that is generated from the use of those assets. It will take any carrier time to ramp up US' operation under the acquiring carrier (months at best). The minute US stops flying, competitors will move in, start taking business, and the value of the assets are diminished. It may be in the acquiring airline's interest to provide Debtor in Possession financing to US for the assets they want US to continue to operate. That is certainly more costly than acquiring assets at face value but is more likely to result in continued US jobs and service to US' communities.
 
Matt D
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:43 am

Actually, I believe the beginning of the end of US goes all the way back to the late 80's, starting with the Piedmont and PSA mergers, both of which never really did much for them. Ever since that time, US has constantly struggled with profitablity. They have been ever so slowly shrinking. They were gone from the West Coast by summer 1991 and the mixed fleet inherited from Piedmont hobbled them throughout most of the 90's. Then what only made things worse were the 1991 and 1994 crashes (LAX, CLT, PIT) that absolutely decimated their reputation, causing damage that they never really recovered from.
 
donder10
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:43 am

If they did then UA could pick up some of the 32Xs to replace some of the 737s providing the lease rates are competitive.
 
Matt D
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:46 am

IMO, United is no position to pick up anything. If US is on its deathbed, UA is in the bed next door in Intensive Care as well. The biggest beneficiaries to the US shutdown will be JetBlue, Southwest, AirTran, and probably Northwest, long looking to establish a Northeast presence.
 
atrude777
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:51 am

im seeing a pattern here. ya'll predict sometimes around April.....thats when TWA got bankrupt. I dont think AA will buy US Airways, or any airline, they may get aircrafts and routes but it wont be like AA with TWA.

Alex.
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
worldtraveler
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:51 am

Matt D is right. US's 320's have higher lease costs than UA's old 737's. UA will be watching the US situation and will probably get stuck w/ worthless tickets that were issued by US under the UA/US codeshare.

Keep in mind that CO, DL, and AA already have fairly extensive overlap w/ many US routes. DL can compete for most of US' revenue w/o adding many resources at all. AA competes in the NE but has now SE hub which is why they would probably be most interested in CLT. You could well see many aircraft upgrades by DL, AA, and CO if US folds. Even if someone acquires US' assets, DL, AA, and CO aren't going to welcome any competitor to the neighborhood w/ open arms.
 
Matt D
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:53 am

Also I would like to add that when the day comes and you start seeing a lot or all of the outbound International flights being cancelled, yet all planes coming in, it will mean that the shutdown is in progress. Just like when the original Braniff shut down, they wanted to make sure all of their planes could be stateside so that no foreign governments could sieze them.
 
rockyracoon
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 2:54 am

I forgot about Independence. Independence Air has got to be excited too. Now they've got a decent chance to succeed. I wonder if they'll be making any changes in route structure etc?
 
clrd2go
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:19 am

Hmm..I guess we'd better use our free round trip tickets to Nassau pretty
quick.


Jim
What a long strange trip it's been
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:27 am

I also agree with the 60-90 day timeframe. Now that word is out that US is in deep sh*t, many companies and individuals will steer clear, expediting the process, and I don't see US officials being agressive to counter that trend, unlike what UA did in 12/2002 by assuring it's "business as usual". UA was successful, there weren't large migrations away immediately following their Ch. 11 filing.

I see Song being a big winner here, and probably AirTran as well. WN will win big in PHL and probably launch CLT, and F9 and B6 will certainly look for a way in, too. AA and NW could also benefit, especially in BOS. UA will benefit somewhat due to the codeshare, and a good number of US' passengers would probably use UA for transcon. routes. UA would probably increase frequency into PIT and PHL, not sure about CLT. I don't know if this is possible under Bermuda II, but perhaps UA could move an IAD-LHR slot up to PHL (or maybe the currently unused SEA-LHR slot) to pick up some of the vacuum left over from US' international routes.

Just my .02.
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rjpieces
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RE: US Airways Now Talking Merger

Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:33 am

I feel like everyone is overthinking this. US still has some financing lined up. All of this stuff in the news is probably the truth, US is looking to sell some assets because they can use the cash now. US still has a long way to go before Chapter 7.

Also, for some historical context. Pan Am started selling assets and with the cash they refined their operation to the point where they were making money! Until Pan Am 103.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
worldtraveler
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:35 am

good thought on the PHLLHR route, Steve. If UA picks off the LHR route (and they probably aren't capable of acquiring any assets), the future of PHL as a hub is very uncertain. Without London, PHL has limited value as an int'l hub.
 
ntspelich
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:36 am

RayChuang -

and WN has a presence at PIT and will soon do a major presence at PHL by the end of 2004.

Hate to say it, WN isn't at PIT.

NS
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Danny
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:40 am

I give them 6 months.
 
AA717driver
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RE: Usairways Wants To Sale ASSETS-HUBS,SHUTTLE, G

Sun Jan 11, 2004 3:53 am

RJpieces--Exactly what financing does U have lined up? Some that hasn't come from the ATSB loan? Or, is it from the RSA? With no unencumbered assets left from Ch. 11, who in their right mind will loan U money at this point?

As for who will acquire the assets of U, leave UAL out of the equation. What about Ch. 11 don't you understand? The very fact that this thread exists validates what I said(warned) to the optimists a year ago when they said U would emerge and take the industry by storm.

UAL can't buy squat right now. What creditor would allow them to burn precious cash on anything other than operating their current system? I can't believe the creditors didn't demand their money immediately when "Ted" was announced--new paint jobs cost money, you know.TC
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LFutia
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 4:06 am

I'm also going to say 60-90 days now that US is totally screwed and people will find out and decide not to fly US because they are screwed so that will lead to US going down the toilet unless they decide to merge w/ UA but however both airlines lost a hefty amount of money after their merger didn't happen.

Leo/ORD
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Logos
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 4:12 am

As I said in another thread, I'd say the over/under is about 10 months. I'm truly sorry for those professionals (especially ex-PI) at US who are trying hard.

Cheers,
Dave in Orlando
Too many types flown to list
 
anstar
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:25 am

I'm sure Jetstar may take some of the A320's, don't think they'll be hard to place at all!
 
CO737800
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:27 am

I will have to say that US Air will last till Oct or Nov
 
Danny
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:29 am

A330 to NWA
A319/A320 to UAL
BOS slots to Virgin USA
LGA slots divide among majors

Anything valuable left?
 
Bluewave 707
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:49 am

The vultures will be circling the carcass known as US.

The only ways for US to survive is to pare down their fleet to two to three types, and chuck the routes and cities that aren't profitable. Fleet: the A320 series, and A330s, maybe the 737s

Also, get rid of Stephen Wolff and his people. Let's face he almost sank UA when he was there.
"The best use of your life will be to so live your life, that the use of your life will outlive your life" -- D Severn
 
FLIBOYZ
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:50 am

REDEEM THOSE FF MILES NOW!!!!! I GIVE US UP UNTIL APRIL MAY THE LATEST. IT'S SO SAD.

MY .02
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 5:55 am

Also, get rid of Stephen Wolff and his people.

???

Wolf left first and left Rakesh Gangwal as CEO. Gangwal left in 2000 I think it was. Larry Nagin, general counsel at UAL for a while under Wolf was also at US, and left a while ago. So, not sure I understand where this comment came from.
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atrude777
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:04 am

Friend of mine wants to know something...hes got a free us airways ticket, wants to use it to to LAX around mid-july should he buy the ticket now...? sell it on ebay in case they ain't around what should he do any help is appreciated thanks

Alex.
Good things come to those who wait, better things come to those who go AFTER it!
 
LHR001
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:06 am

45 days or less......

Boston to be divided between Air Tran, America West, American, Delta, Jet Blue, and Northwest.

Charlotte to be divided between Air Tran, Delta, and Southwest Airlines.

Charlotte international routes to go dormant. Remember that without US Airways domestic feed the Charlotte to Europe routes are light!

New York/La Guardia to be divided by Air Tran, American, American Trans Air, and Northwest.

Philadelphia to be divided by Air Tran, American, American Trans Air, America West, Continental, Delta, Jet Blue, Northwest, and Southwest Airlines.

Philadelphia international routes to go dormant. Remember that without US Airways domestic feed the Philadelphia to Europe routes are light!

Pittsburgh to be divided by Air Tran, Continental, Jet Blue, Northwest, and Southwest Airlines.

Pittsburgh international routes to go dormant. Remember that without US Airways domestic feed the Pittsburgh to Europe routes are light!

Washington/Reagan to be divided by Air Tran, Alaska, American, America West, Continental, Delta, and Northwest Airlines.


LHR001
 
Adam T.
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:12 am

I agree that NWA would probably buy US A330s, but like everyone else said, UA is no position to buy anything right now- which is why I don't see them getting US A319/320/321.
I wonder what would happen to CLT though, from what i've heard, that was a big reason why UA wanted to merge with US in the first place, to have a strong presence in the southeast and compete with Delta's Atlanta base. But as mentioned already, UA is in no position to buy anything.

Do you really think SWA or AirTran or JetBlue will try and make a large presence in PHL or PIT?
I agree that AA or DL will take over the ops in LGA AND/or BOS. What about DCA? I remember CO showing some interest in it during the rumored UA/US merger

It is sad that this seems to be a possibility, living in NC I know a few people who work for US Airways, they do try very hard and are great people.
 
Av8rDAL
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:12 am

Yeah, I agree. Reduce fleet to strictly Airbus 319s, 320s, and 330s if they still want to operate transatlantic routes. Cut routes to those that are popular and profitable.

If US wants to save itself, then they pretty much need to start looking up to JetBlue, AirTran, Southwest's business strategies....as would any other airline who wants to be profitable in today's economic climate.
Maintain thine airspeed, lest the Earth rise up and smite thee.
 
FA4UA
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:13 am

I think we'll see the start of the liquidation process in about 90 days but the end won't be for at least a year. It will be a slow death.

I also agree with RockyRaccoon in regards to UA picking up the A320/319. I think UA will wait until they are gone before picking up anything though. Say about a year from now when all of US' planes are on the market, it will be easy to pick them up for real cheap. I also think UA will be all over the carribean precense that US has. Besides AA there isn't much competition down there and UA needs to grow this market anyway.

I also think UA and the other big six carriers will wait till after US is gone before picking up slots. Nobody really has significant cash to get into a bidding war over assets right now so it will be easier and cheaper to wait until US dies and then pick them up. Plus if it means picking up their staff as well the seniority integration issues will be easier if US is already defunct.

As they say when one door closes another one opens... this could be a bright day for Independence Air, Virgin USA, WN, F9, B6 and of course the Legacy Carriers will pick up a lot of hot assets!

FA4UA
The debate continues... Starwood or Hyatt... which is better
 
Adam T.
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:15 am

Sorry guys, I saw the topic about CLT if US goes under AFTER I posted my question...

Adam
 
SwissINTLA340
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:19 am

Most Likely within the next 4-5 months once WN starts going out of Philly......... Sad
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FLAIRPORT
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:29 am

I give Us Airways a few years. I think that they will make a comeback.

BUT, in case I am wrong, a couple of q's:
my firend is from CLT and travels there from FLL often... how will he get there (prodictions!)?

What will happen to LGAs terminal:
it looks very nice. I can see DL moving all ops to the USAirways terminal. 1 side for shuttle and Song, he other for connection and mainline.
then Northwest, FL and NK could share theDelta Terminal and WN would add LGA and move to the marine Air Terminal!
NEXT FLIGHT: FLL-ATL-HPN on FL
 
bistro1200
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:30 am

I guess I should sell my Mesa stock!

I'd love to see Jonathan Ornstein the day he gets that call of US's demise.
Measure to the millimeter, mark with a crayon, cut with an axe.
 
srbmod
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:32 am

Once they sell off the US Airways Shuttle, 90-120 days. There will be several groups that will take some hits from US Airways going CH 7. First off, the employees, that goes without saying. Secondly, the RSA, as their investment will be written off (and no telling how many teachers' pensions will be destroyed either). Embraer, as they lose an important Embraer 170 customer at the wrong time. Airbus, as they now see the market value of their products drop significantly. The hub cities will be the first to rebound, as probably within 3-6 months of US Airways going under, those cities will have new airlines hubbing out of them. Too early to speculate who will take what hub, but Frontier, Northwest, AirTran, and Southwest will probably be increasing their operations or starting operations from what are currently US Airways hubs.
 
deltairlines
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:43 am

I give US until Memorial Day. It's unfortunate, as I have been flying US quite a bit over the past year, and I have been very impressed with their service.

As for who could benefit/be harmed by this, I see the following:

US Airways assets:
PHL: Finally, Northwest will have a hub in the Northeast. It won't be near the size of US' current operation, but it will still be a respectable operation. This hub could come at the expense of MEM...NW might be more inclined to just feed its pax through DFW, ATL, or IAH.
PIT: au revoir. Just too many hubs in the Great Lakes region
CLT: I don't know about this one. DL won't touch it, it would just siphon off ATL traffic. AA won't touch it, instead they would build up RDU (which I think they will do...they have all of Terminal 3 to themselves at RDU). UA doesn't have the money to touch it. That leaves NW and CO. NW has already picked up PHL, so I don't think they could make a move, especially if they keep MEM. That leaves Continental, and for some reason, I don't see them at CLT...the only way I could really see them at CLT is by ditching CLE and having those pax go through CVG and DTW. Southwest would be at CLT in a heartbeat, with flights to many of their eastern seaboard destinations...this could be an easy 50-70 flight station by the end of the year for Southwest, and they will have the planes to do it (they have all these new planes coming, and they haven't allocated a lot of them yet).
LGA/DCA/BOS (I'm grouping these together, since they share a lot of the same qualities): This will be a dogfight between AA and DL. In fact, I wouldn't be shocked if these two just split these three airports down the middle. AA, DL, and US consitute the top 3 at each airport, while everyone else is a good ways behind them. I don't see CO, NW, or others making a big move for these facilities. In the end, AA will have about 200 daily flights at both LGA and BOS, about 100 at DCA. DL will have about 150 at BOS and LGA, about 100 at DCA. Either AA or NW will pick up the shuttle, CO will not. If CO wanted a shuttle, they would/should run it through EWR...in my mind, EWR is a lot easier to get to for all of Midtown/Downtown (especially with AirLink...only 2 (very crowded) stops between EWR and NYP...and EWR is pretty close to the Holland Tunnel.

I think these scenarios will occur:
DL: will pick up the Southern slack right away. Instead of US predominately serving a lot of the Carolinas, it will be Delta. Eventually, AA might have some of this out of RDU, but it will predominately be DL. DL will have increased presence in the Northeast Corridor as well.
AA: they get a ton too. A lot more presence in the Northeast Corridor, which should help.
UA: they lose their code-share partner...losing a lot of east coast presence. Might be gone by May 2005.
NW: they get PHL...which gives them a larger presence in the Northeast.
CO: maybe move CLE for CLT...but that's it. Not much more.
WN: a nice big operation at CLT...this will certainly benefit them. With US gone at PHL and a weaker NW operation there, they will certainly expand at PHL as well. They might also start a smaller station at PIT...with PHL, BWI, MDW, BNA, CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO, TPA, AS / KLAS), USA - Nevada">LAS, and PHX getting service. No more than 20 flights a day. It looks like a good win for Southwest.
B6: not much they can do. They would have to wait until the 190s come, but who knows what will happen in a year.
FL: maybe a little bit larger at PHL and PIT, but they will have to contend with Southwest. They also will add service to CLT, but just to ATL.
AS/F9: no real change...they don't overlap with US that much.

Jeff
 
Matt D
Topic Author
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RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:50 am

Why would AA be interested in RDU again? They had that airport pretty much all to itself until 1995, at which time they abandoned it so that Midway II could take over.
 
Mikey711MN
Posts: 1229
Joined: Fri Nov 07, 2003 4:19 am

RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 6:51 am

I wonder if YX couldn't do some point-to-point eastern operations if they managed to get the necessary open slots at, say, BOS, LGA or DCA. It'd be a nice way to develop a sizeable loyal following out there......
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
Adam T.
Posts: 796
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2000 7:01 am

RE: USAir Death Date: Make Your Predictions Here

Sun Jan 11, 2004 7:04 am

I've always wondered why the RDU-LGW route is so popular for AA?

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