PVD757
Topic Author
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List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:04 am

What do you think the list of major airlines in 2010 in the US will look like?
What about worldwide?
 
yanksn4
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:07 am

(not in order)

-Jet Blue
-Frontier
-Southwest
-Virgin Atlantic
2013 Airports: EWR, JFK, LGA, LIS, AGP, DEN, GIG, RGN, BKK, LHR, FRA, LAX, SYD, PER, MEL, MCO, MIA, PEK, IAH
 
L.1011
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:09 am

American Continental DontEverLeaveTheAirport Northwest United jetBlue Southwest AirTran
 
funflyer
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:14 am

Don't forget to add in BA.
Who cares about status?
 
Aviationman
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:14 am

In Canada:

WestJet (For sure)
Air Canada (They will still be there)
CanJet (Maybe?....Hopefully!)
Air Transat (Another "for sure")
SkyService (Hopefully!)

JetsGo and its Mickey Mouse operation, HMY.....Forget about them....They will be gone by then.
 
PVD757
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:27 am

I do not believe Airtran or Frontier will have the legs to survive that long. US airways will be either out of business or acquired by then......
 
aa757first
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:33 am

In US

UA
CO
NW
DL
AA
B6
HP
 
COIAH99
Posts: 242
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:36 am

Continental
Northwest
Delta
American

Just wondering are lcc considered "majors" now?
Work Hard Fly Right
 
yanksn4
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:37 am

Why won't Frontier be one of the majors when they are just behind B6/WN and are getting more and more frequent flyers everyday?
2013 Airports: EWR, JFK, LGA, LIS, AGP, DEN, GIG, RGN, BKK, LHR, FRA, LAX, SYD, PER, MEL, MCO, MIA, PEK, IAH
 
COIAH99
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:39 am

I guess your right if the lcc carriers are still around then they would be considered a major...
Work Hard Fly Right
 
Aviationman
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:39 am

It would be sad to see US go.
 
PVD757
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:46 am

Passenger count determines whether or not you are a major, regional, etc. I think the cutoff for major is set at 1,000,000 pax a year. Actually, WN is considered a major, so is AE.
 
COIAH99
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 1:51 am

Thank you for clearing that up PVD757, I didn't now the paramiters for being considered a major so here's my revised list:

Continental
Northwest
Delta
American
Frontier
Southwest
Jetblue
Work Hard Fly Right
 
acho
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:12 am

In Mexico: (not in order)
Mexicana, which will hopefully aquire an all airbus fleet, with A-430s and will join OneWorld

Aeromexico: Will expand its fleet, will replace all its current MD80 and DC9 with the new 73Gs and possibly 717s. Will aquire more long range aircraft, including the 777.

Aviacsa: Will moderinze its fleet (732s and 727s) to 735s and 717s and continue serving Mexico and the US as a low cost carrier.

Acho


 
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Aloha717200
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:16 am

Frontier will still be around in 2010. They're strong.


My list, not in order: (USA)

United
American
Delta
Continental
Northwest
Jetblue
Southwest
Frontier
America West
American Trans Air
Alaska Airlines
Virgin USA
Aloha (provided that they don't sell themselves before that time)


Or, in other words, almost exactly the same as it is today.
 
rjpieces
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:26 am

PVD757, why do you think AirTran and Frontier won't be here in 2010?!! They are both doing quite well now and have good future growth plans.

Honestly, I think the industry will look the same in 2010 as now except:

-No US Airways
-JetBlue will be a big player since all of their planes on order will be in operation and more will be on order.
-AmericaWest looks like they will finally have a profit this year, hopefully they will transform into an airline with a longlasting model
-The majors will also have to transform their models or they won't be around either. I think UA and AA will have to shut down a hub and rely more on "focus cities"
-A lot more niche carriers. It seems like we have seen so much growth in this area since B6 arrived...VirginUSA, this new Loco in Pittsburgh, Independence Air, etc
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
icarus75
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:30 am

In Europe :
AF/KL/AZ
BA/IB
LH
SU
Flying is amazing!
 
MxCtrlr
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:32 am

Passenger count determines whether or not you are a major, regional, etc.

Negative! Revenues determine an airline's status. Major is achieve when they reach US$1 Billion in annual revenue.

MxCtrlr  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Freight Dogs Anonymous - O.O.T.S.K.  Smokin cool
DAMN! This SUCKS! I just had to go to the next higher age bracket in my profile! :-(
 
fraT
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 2:56 am

My prediction is:

Contideltanwa. After the supermerger 2008
TAFKAU (The airline formerly known as United)
British American . AA after the takeover by BA
Southwest
Jetblue
 Big grin  Big grin Big grin  Big grin
 
anstar
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:06 am

Hey FraT,

you're forgetting CX and SQ after entering the domestic market

lol
 
Nicollo
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:12 am

Your all wrong,

We have site to site transport from our homes via internet cable connection

 
Tolosy
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:13 am

fraT

I would have fought of AirEuropa Airways

for respectively AF BA LH, the european airline
 
PVD757
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:15 am

Airtran will not be around for one reason. DL. I know, your argument already "They've survived for years against them".

Here's my point: Look at what Delta did with Jetblue on one route. When Airtran starts up their transcon network with their OWN dedicated planes, Delta will just add capacity to each route and systematically get rid of them. Think about this: Airtran is not going to start service to small airports from ATL with their new aircraft. They are going to go head to head with DL on major routes.

I know that Ryan does contract work for them on routes now. But, I believe that if Airtran wanted to stop the routes tommorrow they could without worrying about where to put the airplanes. When they own the hardware, it's a different story.

Also, they survive for the most part by flying niche routes. Delta is not going to run them out of Flint Michigan (sorry if you're from there by the way). LAX, SEA, SFO are another story.

Last, Airtran is picking up a new type with the 737. Their low cost model must change to reflect this, just like jetBlue's will have to. This is the reason why WN will never fly anything else but one type of aircraft.

As far as Frontier is concerned, I think that IF, and a big IF, UA survives the bleeding right now, they will keep TED around long enough to put Frontier out of business. Ted has no other mission. Frontier is just keeping the gates warm and the airport open.
 
capt078
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:19 am

i'm not sure we can say who will be a major, as right now a major is determined by revenue, and of course, by 2010, the $1 billion mark will not be such a grand number. instead, i list who i think will be the top

delta
american
us airways/america west
northwest
continental
united
southwest
jetblue
alaska
airtran
ata
 
elwood64151
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:20 am

In the United States:

For certain (IMHO):

Delta
Northworst
Continental
American
United
AirTran
Southwest
JetBlue
Alaska

Possible:

Frontier
American Trans Air

Possibly Gone:

USAirways
Midwest
GP Air
America West

Not Majors:

Atlantic Coast
Spirit

Just my opinion.
Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.
 
aa757first
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:25 am

Possibly Gone:
America West


May I ask your reasoning? I'm not doubting you or anything, I just wanted to know why you think this.

AAndrew
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:25 am

I think that IF, and a big IF, UA survives the bleeding right now, they will keep TED around long enough to put Frontier out of business. Ted has no other mission.

Ummm....no. TED's mission is to help UA prevent further market share erosion in its key markets, starting with DEN and eventually moving to other locations such as IAD and ORD, and maybe others. TED's initial operation in DEN won't be nearly big enough to even put a large dent in F9, let alone put them out of business. I don't think TED will be around in 5 years, much less 10

Ok...my list:

United Airlines (started some new domestic and int'l routes after US failed)
American Airlines
Alaska Airlines (following purchase of Aloha)
JetBlue (much larger after purchase of Frontier)
Delta (bought out NW and Airtran)
Continental (bought out HP)
Southwest


And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
capt078
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:32 am

PVD757: delta didn't drive jetblue out of atlanta. if anything, it was airtran. jetblue left because their limited number of planes are in such high demand, the airline must place them on routes that will create the most revenue. neeleman said it himself that once airtran announced its transcontinental plans, jetblue realized their planes would be better positioned somewhere else. furthermore, airtran is hardly a niche carrier because it flies into a few secondary airports. airtran is beating delta on the florida routes and routes to the northeast...that's delta backyard so to speak.

now, unlike some people, i don't think that airtran poses the threat to delta that others suggest. delta doesn't seem to have any trouble filling its planes and neither does airtran. i think the two can and do actually exist somewhat symbiotically. airtran takes the low-fare leisure (and some business) travelers from delta, and delta takes the higher fare business (and some leisure) travelers from the other majors. i think we'll eventually see out of atlanta what we see at o'hare, though delta will of course be the much larger airline.
 
rjpieces
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:35 am

PVD757, I couldn't disagree with you more!  Smile  Smile

A few thing to keep in mind. B6 was brand new in Atlanta and was relying on ATL-LGB alone, no feeding traffic, etc. AirTran has a fairly big hub in ATL and they will be flying the same EXACT routes DL does but charing less.

Seeing that the transcon routes from ATL have some of the highest airfares in the nation, it is perfect for AirTran. Also, even if they don't suceed in taking away some of Delta's pax, hopefully the low airfares will encourage people to fly who otherwise wouldn't. By your argument, why didn't DL kill AirTran a long time ago? It isn't that easy.They do go head to head with Delta on major routes now.

Yes AirTran will have higher costs because they will have a 2nd fleet type but the expansion it allows them makes up for the higher costs.

Also, your whole analysis is based on the notion that the majors have a good business model. THIS IS WRONG! Ted's inflight service should have been on all UA mainline years ago. Ted is not meant to put Frontier out of business, rather to compete with it on a level which UA can't.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
capt078
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 3:42 am

RJpieces: let's not beat around the bush here, ted's objective is most certainly at harming if not ruining frontier. the real question is, god-forbid ted succeeds, would united maintain the ted business model or return to its traditional, albeit unsuccessful, one? other than that, i pretty much agree with everything you said.
 
PVD757
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:12 am

Let me see, who dropped in 777s and 767s to LAX when jetBlue sarted service? Oh right, that WAS Airtran. You take a look in the timetables for BOS-ATL and tell me who is going to win this route. Airtran is not running anybody out of the market. Why is Delta running so much tin on this route if they are getting their butts kicked? Oh, and by the way, Airtran serves a BOS-PHL route. I had a friend on it a month ago. It was Monday morning and there was only 18 people on it, 18 people on a Monday morning for an airline that's so scary with their low fares. Another niche route not going anywhere.

And as far as TED is concerned, United has had no reason to start this behemoth up until Frontier became successful. If they do not drive out Frontier on the routes they compete with them on, then it will fail just like Metrojet did.

I'm not saying that the majors have the best models going. I do know that UA, AA, CO, and DL have been through a bunch of significant dowturns in their illustrious careers. If you think that they will let go of routes that are their bread and butter, why don't you ask how Frontier likes their new competitor out of DEN to LAX or how Midwest Express likes their neighbors in MKE? What about that promising little carrier in RDU who divorced themselves from AA because they thought they could survive on their own?
 
CanadianNorth
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:29 am

Canada...

-Air Canada (they wont go, alot wish they would but they wont)
-Westjet (they seem to be doing fairly well donn see why they wouldnt be)
-Canadian North (they seem to know what they are doing)
-First Air (they aint the best but i really cant see em going)
-Canjet (i donno really but they might last)
-Skyservice (they have a chance of making it)
-Air North (they are'nt the pros of the industry but i donn think the gov would like em gone)
-Jazz (they seem to last longer than AC's other subsidarys


CanadianNorth
What could possibly go wrong?
 
PVD757
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:30 am

RJpieces: Just to clarify: I never said anything about the majors having a good business model or not, like most posts on this board, it's ONLY my opinion on things, I'm NOT claiming to be right or wrong - just what I think.

Capt078: You claim FL is not a niche carrier, I agree and did not state that, I said they fly to a few niche markets (BMI, FNT, CAK, etc.)! And your claim of FL "beating" DL on routes to Florida and the northeast is somewhat vague. DL is running widebodies to every Florida airport with a runway and FL doesn't even serve 1/2 the notheast cities that DL does. They are mostly matching fares so where is the "beating?" Yes, DL's costs are higher on those routes but they're filling 200-250 seats at a time vs. FL's 100. DL ushered FL out of DL / KBDL), USA - Connecticut">BDL, and I highly doubt DL's BOS, LGA, PHL routes are empty.

IMHO, FL is going to be a victim of the WN/B6 war. AA/DL/CO/NW are still strong enough to weather the storm. If UA survives and HP stays course, I just don't see 3 very large "LCCs." Maybe I shouldn't totally count them out, but I feel as though the second (mainline) fleet type will at least come back to haunt them. As for F9: I like F9, hope they decide to come to PVD, I just think if UA rights their ship...well Capt078 sees my point, it depends on UA, thats all. Hey maybe F9 continues the focus city thing - I think that will continue to strengthen them.

To summarize, there is just too much capacity (still) right now and at least 2 or 3 will be gone by then. Under todays environment, without the future unkowns, this is my opinion. Whether it's via a nasty drink of chapter 7 belly-up or a merger or two, the landscape needs to change.
 
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mariner
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:32 am

For the whole nearly ten years ot its existence, people have been saying that UA is going to crush Frontier like a gnat.

The gnat is still here.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

Seriously, does no one stop to consider the politics of this?

(i) As long as Frontier is operating reasonably succesfully at DIA, it keeps the Department of Justice and the FAA off UA's back.

(ii) Better for UA to have tiny Frontier as their competitor at DIA rather than JetBlue.

Frontier is growing, but not aggressively so. JetBlue is growing very aggressively. Which one would you rather compete against?

(iii) By paying off the ATSB backed loan in full and early, Frontier has become the darling of the ATSB - and many in the Federal government.

It is the only airline to have paid back a dime so far, and thus justifies the entire ATSB approval process.

Now here comes UA looking for $1.6 billion from the ATSB. You work out the politics of that.

(iv) There are some exceptions, but in general Ted's fares are higher than Frontier's. And Ted's costs are higher than Frontier. You do the math.

(v) Ted is replacing mainline. Therefore, Ted's loads will, to a large extent, be a carry over from mainline.

Using DEN/LAS, if mainline l/f is 75%, then Ted starts with 75% l/f. If Ted gets a bit more - say 80% l/f - not all of that small difference is going to come from Frontier. Other airlines fly the route.

Anything over 80% average l/f means that at least on some flights you're turning pax away. Hello, Frontier.

In general, probably the worst thing that could happen to UA in its present fragile state would be for Frontier to "go away."

In other words, it is in UA's interest to keep Frontier flying. Keep an eye on 'em, smack 'em upside the head if they get too uppity, make nice, but not too nice, about gates at Terminal A (as UA did).

But keep 'em flying. If only to keep others away.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
LHSebi
Posts: 1007
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:35 am

For europe:
LH + CityLine
BA
KLM
AF

Not familiar enough with the current standing of the non-european carriers.

Sebastian
I guess that's what happens in the end, you start thinking about the beginning.
 
capt078
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:49 am

PVD757: airtran has taken market share (of leisure travelers) from delta. hence, airtran is beating delta. as i said though, i think that the two exist in a mutually beneficial way: delta garnering business travelers (mostly from other majors) and airtran cornering leisure travelers.

you can't possibly think that delta drove jetblue out of atlanta and that it was some major coup in doing so. as i stated before, straight from the horse's mouth (neeleman), jetblue exited the atlanta route to dispatch on higher profit/demand routes, and the announcement of airtran operating lcc service to the west coast from atlanta was the deciding factor. it would not surprise me to see jetblue return to atlanta, once it has a larger fleet and has succeeding in ingratiating itself in other markets in higher demand of an lcc. notice how most of jetblue's routes are those that do not offer an lcc alternative, so airtran's announcement that it was going to offer its own lcc service to the west coast obviously changed things for jetblue.
 
rjpieces
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 4:54 am

PVD, big deal that they had 777s and 767s on those routes and were giving FFP perks, werethey making money doing it? Answer: Probably not. But it did suceed in getting B6 out of the market. With AirTran, which has a hub in ATL and lots of loyal pax, do you really think Delta will be able to knock them off a route? And btw, AirTran has been expanding in lots of markets out of ATL so there are other places for their 737s.

AirTran however is making money in this industry. This doesn't mean that AirTran will knock Delta out of the market, nor the opposite. And do you see AirTran load reports? Or do you just rely on your friends account of a flight for all of your info?

As for Ted, you are basically saying United had no reason to change their model until LCCs arose. The problem is not that the LCCs are making money. The majors shouldn't worry about that. They should look at HOW they are making money and then see how their airlines could be more like that. That is exactly what United is doing.

"I do know that UA, AA, CO, and DL have been through a bunch of significant dowturns in their illustrious careers"

How many downturns has WN faced in the last 30 years?

And unfortunately, the majors don't have a choice over the fate of their bread and butter routes. There really are no bread and butter routes left for the majors, except NW's hub domination and DL's transcons out of ATL. The NYC-LAX market which a few years ago were cashcows now face competition from JetBlue, AmericaWest, and ATA.

You put too much faith in the majors. They are not able to just kill already wellknown airlines. The only time the majors can kill an airline is when they are starting up (which AA did to Legend for example). Plus you are forgetting that it takes a lot of money to kill another airline, and the majors are desperately short of that now. I still fail to see any coherent points/arguments about DL will kill AirTran and UA kill Frontier. Will AA also be killing B6 soon? Maybe NW can take on WN.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
PVD757
Topic Author
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 5:14 am

Look, RJ, we've mostly agreed on things in here (that's why your a respected user), I'm just posting my opinions on things. DL and UA and extremely established carriers. I'm not disputing FL and F9 aren't nor that they have a great base of loyal customers. The market has changed - loyal customers are loyal because you offer them the lowest price. Yes some have IFE and some have leather seats and some have this and that, BUT the "majors" have been around for a long time. They have staying power, but are not imune to the industies trials and tribulations. The topic is based on factors and decisions that haven't happened yet. What I base my opinions on are differant than yours. I just think that when DL and UA get healthier (IF they get healthier if you prefer) they have more resources to fight thier competition. These guys have put many other carriers into the desert. I singled out Airtran's decision to introduce another, un-common aircraft type into thier fleet coupled with the ability of DL (IF they continue to trim costs) as a potential killer. I don't understand why you have to debate me and argue my opinion so much, I don't discredit your's at all, maybe I'm totally wrong, but right now, that what I THINK! Maybe I think we should do away with traffic lights, that's my opinion, doesn't mean that it's right. I'm a little older than you, so let me share some elder wisdom about about opionions (capt078: you always seem to pick apart my posts only to discover that you've misread or misunderstood my point, so this is for you too): Opinions are like a$$holes, everyone has one, and they all stink!
 
srbmod
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 5:14 am

Delta put the 777 on the ATL-LAX route after JetBlue dropped out of ATL. The reason for the 777 flight was so to have an operational spare just in case one of their 777 flights to Japan out of LAX needed an a/c due to MX reasons. AirTran is having very good loads on the Las Vegas and Los Angeles runs, probably the highest loads of any of their routes. AirTran's expansion in the west will be to cities that Delta currently serves out of ATL that have high fares.

My list for the US Majors in 2010:

1. American
2. Continental
3. Northwest
4. Southwest
5. America West
6. JetBlue
7. AirTran
8. ATA
9. Spirit
10. Frontier

I think that US Airways and United will be history by then, Alaska Airlines will have been bought out, Continental and Delta will have merged, and AirTran will have bought out Virgin American (or whatever it will be called)

As for calling a city like CAK a niche destination, if it's so niche, why does Comair fly ATL-CAK then, in direct competition with AirTran?
 
Lan_Fanatic
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:11 am

According to some people, the Latin american carriers that will be around for 2010 are:

Aeromexico/Mexicana
Varig/TAM
LanChile
TACA
 
FLAIRPORT
Posts: 3863
Joined: Thu Oct 26, 2000 10:46 am

RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 11:47 am

majors:
B6
UA
DL
F9
WN
CO
Independence Air
Alaska
Aloha
FL
AA
Air Florida (III)

smaller airlines:
NW
Us Airways (II)
Pan Am (VII)
TWA (II)
Virgin USA
Hawaiian
American Eagle
SkyWest

Others:
Comair
ASA
Atlantic Coast Jet
Air Wisconson
Business Express
NEXT FLIGHT: FLL-ATL-HPN on FL
 
PVD757
Topic Author
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Mon Jan 12, 2004 12:19 pm

Speaking of sources, Why are you so quick to tell me that mine are wrong. Where are yours at? How about telling us your great information pipeline? What info points to Airtran taking passengers away? And also, I don't believe I even discussed WN at all. The question posed to me is why I thought that Frontier and Airtran would not be around in 2010.
I'll tell you what. Why don't we see what a healthy group of majors can do with good revenue streams in their systems. And of course you believe everything that a CEO says. He never is going to say something negative about his company. Gee, come to think of it, I think the CEO from Enron said that they were doing fine up until the end, look how many people believed him.
 
elwood64151
Posts: 2410
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 1:20 am

Aa757first:

My reasoning is that while F9, FL, and some others do not have the name recognition that AA, DL, etc have, neither does HP; and HP, unlike its LCC contemporaries, is not on the firmest of financial ground.

Remember, I stated "possibly" gone, not definetely. HP could still improve its footing, making my prediction false.

I did state is was just my opinion, didn't I? ::looks up:: Yes, I did...

Delta (bought out NW and Airtran)

No way in HELL. First of all, the anti-trust guys would be all over a purchase of either carrier, and FL isn't going to sell itself to a large carrier that isn't making money.

Oh, and by the way, Airtran serves a BOS-PHL route. I had a friend on it a month ago. It was Monday morning and there was only 18 people on it, 18 people on a Monday morning for an airline that's so scary with their low fares. Another niche route not going anywhere.

AirTran has a lot of individual flights with no one on them. So does DL, AA, UA, US, etc... But their routes are generally full.

Besides, FL is making money. DL is not.

IMHO, FL is going to be a victim of the WN/B6 war

What B6 WN war? These two airlines serve entirely different markets (B6 cities WN doesn't fly to: JFK, DEN, SYR, IAD, SJU, LGB?, DEN, ROC, BOS, and Burlington, VT-code please?).

Thats about half of FL's route structure. And while PVD and MHT are close enough to BOS to steal traffic, and LGB is near LAX/ONT, etc, I don't see these two airlines as direct competitors.

airtran has taken market share (of leisure travelers) from delta

Actually, FL has taken business travellers, as well. I know my sister and brother-in-law (who live in ATL) fly them almost exclusively because their flights are non-stop out of ATL and DL's tickets are always higher last-minute, so they just fly FL as a matter of course, even when booking in advance and the fares are competitive. With NJ gone and FL serving that market, my brother-in-law uses them to fly there (he made one trip on DL, and now uses FL again--used to fly NJ because the fares were always low. Bless Him!).

So FL is taking business away from DL.

BUT the "majors" have been around for a long time. They have staying power

People said the same thing back before EA and PA went under...

I singled out Airtran's decision to introduce another, un-common aircraft type into thier fleet coupled with the ability of DL (IF they continue to trim costs) as a potential killer

On a smaller scale, I'd agree with that. However, FL is adding 50-100 737-NGs and at least a few more 712s. That means that can take advantage of fewer parts-per-aircraft and increased maintenance experience. Same goes for the B6 purchase of E-190s. They are getting so many that the cost-prohibitive factor of adding a second fleet-type is no longer a problem.

Lan_Fanatic:

Gotta agree with that. At least those.

And also, I don't believe I even discussed WN at all

Uh, yeah you did:

IMHO, FL is going to be a victim of the WN/B6 war

Sorry, PVD. I usually like reading your posts, but not on this particular thread.

Also, I notice you were the original questioner. Were you really interested in people's honest opinions or just in confirming your own?

[Edited 2004-01-12 17:21:47]
Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.
 
PVD757
Topic Author
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 1:38 am

just wanted to see what everyone thought and to see if anyone agreed with mine, not too confirm them. I'll be honest, I've been bored with the lack of news in the industry (that interests me) lately, so I jumped in, no big deal. The USAirways thing here has sparked a lot hard feelings that remind of the things I hate in this industry. Airlines come and airlines go, some are great and some are bad, it just sucks to see so many people I know losing jobs and such. I always try to choose my words carefully, it doesn't always work - oh well. Just been in one of those moods lately I guess!

cheers
 
planemaker
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 2:12 am

MxCtrlr is correct on the definition of what makes an airline a major. Following is the DOT classification breakdown:

The U.S. Department of Transportation classifies airlines by their annual operating revenues. Majors are those airlines whose annual revenues exceed $1 billion.

Based on CY2000, U.S. majors are Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, American Eagle, American Trans Air, America West Airlines, Continental Airlines, Delta Airlines, DHL Airways, FedEx, Northwest Airlines, Southwest Airlines, United Airlines, United Parcel Service, and US Airways.

The next category of airlines, nationals, are defined by DOT as those whose annual revenues fall between $100 million and $1 billion.

Regional airlines have annual revenues below $100 million.


FYI, Based on 2002 revenues, ATA is considered a major. Not too many have mentioned them as possible survivors in 2010.

My own personal opinion for the US market is that there will only be 4 legacy/cartel carriers that will survive plus 3 LCC's. PERIOD!


Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
737-990
Posts: 332
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 4:26 am

My 2 cents(in terms of revenue) :

1. American
2. Delta
3. United
4. Southwest
5. Northwest
6. Continental
7. JetBlue
8. USAirways
9. AmericaWest
10. Airtran
11. Alaska
12. ATA
13. Frontier
14. Spirit

Just my thoughts, no sources. I don't leave room for mergers, I don't believe in them, most end up being disasters. I will make one other prediction, Southwest will be number one in terms of passengers carried.

Happiest is a man who has his vocation as a hobby
 
N323ER
Posts: 125
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 5:11 am

Guess not many people have faith in FL(AirTran) wonder why i think they wiil be up there before 2010, but they again I am an employee so may be I am a little bias Big grin
RYAN SCAIFE
 
necigrad
Posts: 173
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 11:45 am

CURRENT MAJORS:

American
United
Delta
NorthWest
Continental

I predict ONE of the above will disappear.

Southwest
US Airways (gonna die)
America West
Alaska
ATA

That's the current list and what I think will happen
 
elwood64151
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 12:45 pm

PVD757:

It's no problem. Like I said, I normally like your posts, even if I don't agree with them. I just took serious issue with a few of your points.

N323er:

The reason so many people don't believe in FL is they don't want to. They want JetBlue or Southwest to be the only LCCs, and for Frontier and AirTran to just DIE ALREADY (as I've seen it in one post a year or so ago). They are willing to accept WN since they've been here for 33 years, and B6 because they've been taken in by the media hype B6 is so good at generating (not that either airline is bad).

But F9 and FL simply aren't part of their "Evoked Set" (a marketing term used to describe the first three or four companies or products that come to mind when prompted). ATA, Spirit and Alaska suffer from the same thing, and so dire predictions often follow them, as well.

In any event, FL is too strong financially to disappear entirely. If nothing else, they'll merge with someone else. F9 not quite the same, but getting stronger every day. TZ has always weathered the storms, and I think they will continue to do so.

Once again, just my $.02.
Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.
 
NWDC10
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RE: List Of Major Airlines In 2010

Tue Jan 13, 2004 4:59 pm

Do you think United would like to see Ted take over the continental U.S. routes while keeping United for international travel? United can't compete with Jet Blue and South West but Ted can-easier? Robert NWDC10

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