baw2198
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UA After Bankruptcy

Sat Jan 17, 2004 5:11 pm

Once united gets back on track and gets going really well financially, what aircraft do you think they will purchase?

( my opinion)

I think they'll go with 737ng and be the first launch customer for the 7e7 and start to sell off and / or lease their bus's so they can have better fleet comonality. ( I'm NOT starting an A vs. B war with this statement)
That being said, what do you think will happen?

Baw2198
"And remember, Keep your stick on the ice"--->Red Green
 
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sat Jan 17, 2004 5:39 pm

What makes you think UA will purchase the 737NG? They operate 155 A319/A320 and have 42 more on order... I've seen nothing that suggests UA isn't a happy A319/A320 consumer -- in fact, everything I've read seems to indicate the exact opposite. And dumping 155 A32S aircraft wouldn't be an easy task... Other than that, UA has: -- too many 733 classics, too many 767, too many 777 (and one more on order) and too many 747.

I highly doubt UA will be ordering more planes for a long, long time...

 
mjszanto
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sat Jan 17, 2004 6:34 pm

How certain is United's exit financing right now? Is it certain they will get the loan guarantee from the US government they want? If they don't would they be able to come out of bankruptcy? I have to honestly tell you guys I've lost track.
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 2:24 am

Re: exit financing. Here's a direct cut/paste from the www.united.com website, from a 12/16/03 press release:

Loan Backers Cite Major Restructuring Progress, Solid Business Plan;
Banks to Provide $400 million in Non-Guaranteed Funding

Financing Contingent on Approval by ATSB, Bankruptcy Court

CHICAGO, December 16, 2003 - UAL Corporation (OTCBB: UALAQ.OB), the holding company whose primary subsidiary is United Airlines, confirmed today that it has reached formal agreement to secure $2 billion in exit financing with JPMorgan and Citigroup, marking a major step toward emerging from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Under the financing plan, JPMorgan and Citigroup will each underwrite $200 million of the non-guaranteed portion of the facility and $800 million of the guaranteed portion, which requires the backing of a loan guarantee from the Air Transportation Stabilization Board (ATSB). The Company plans to file an update to its previous proposal to the ATSB shortly. Financing is also subject to approval by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court.

“The competitive terms of this financing package -- especially the willingness of both banks to include a substantial amount of at-risk funding -- reflect the extraordinary progress United has made this past year, and the credibility of our plan for the future,” said Glenn F. Tilton, United’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. “We are very pleased to be working with both banks, and look forward to moving ahead with them in the exit process and beyond.”

“Obtaining exit financing commitments on a timely basis is a major step for United,” said Jake Brace, United’s executive vice president and chief financial officer. “JPMorgan and Citigroup, along with our other Debtor-in-Possession financing lenders, have gained a deep understanding of our business and the progress United has made on lowering costs, enhancing productivity and improving revenue, which led directly to these exit financing commitments.”

“This is a vastly different company than it was a year ago, and we believe all the pieces are now in place to enable United to compete effectively,” said Bill Repko, Managing Director, Head of Restructuring, JPMorgan. “United has done all the right things to position itself for a successful exit.”

JPMorgan and Citigroup will serve as the joint lead arrangers and co-administrative agents for the loan. They will also be joint book runners with JPMorgan leading the syndication.

“We are extremely pleased to participate in providing financing that assists United to complete its restructuring,” said Chad Leat, head of Global Loans and Leveraged Finance Capital Markets. “United has made a great deal of progress, and we look forward to continuing to work with them.”

As part of its restructuring efforts, the company is on track to reduce its costs by $5 billion annually by 2005, has improved its revenue performance and has heightened operational results. UAL generated an operating profit of $19 million in the third quarter 2003, the first time it has shown an operating profit since the second quarter of 2000.

---------------
Re: the ATSB loan guarantee. Again, from the United website, taken from a 12/18/03 press release:
---------------
Business Plan Endorsed by Commercial Lending Market
CHICAGO, December 18, 2003 - UAL Corporation (OTCBB: UALAQ.OB), the holding company whose primary subsidiary is United Airlines, today filed an update to its previous proposal to the Air Transportation Stabilization Board (ATSB) for a federal loan guarantee. As part of its planned exit from Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, UAL is seeking $2 billion in financing, including a $1.6 billion federal loan guarantee. JPMorgan and Citigroup have each agreed to underwrite $200 million of the non-guaranteed portion of the facility and $800 million of the guaranteed portion, pending approval of a loan guarantee from the ATSB. The financing is also subject to approval by the U.S. Bankruptcy Court.

“United’s restructuring plan was designed to create a competitive, profitable company and to address the concerns raised by the ATSB last year,” said Glenn F. Tilton, United’s Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer. “The business plan we provided to the ATSB today reflects a substantially stronger company.”

The $1.6 billion federal loan guarantee sought by the Company is $200 million less than the guarantee sought by United last year. The lower amount reflects an endorsement of the Company’s business plan by the commercial lending markets. The remaining $400 million (or 20%) of the facility, which would be provided by the banks without any guarantee by the federal government, is double the size of the non-guaranteed portion the company included in its 2002 application.

When the company’s business plan was submitted to the ATSB for review in 2002, the board responded that United must reduce its cost structure, develop a competitive response to the low cost carriers, ensure that its financial projections were based on conservative assumptions, and manage the company’s pension obligations. Today’s filing details the steps United has taken to squarely address all these issues, as well as the company’s success in significantly reducing costs and generating revenue while maintaining operating performance.





And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 2:47 am

What makes you think UA will purchase the 737NG?

Ahead of that, what makes you think UA will "get back on track and get going really well financially"?  Laugh out loud
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
uadc8contrail
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 3:04 am

concordeboy,
what makes you think ual will not come out of this better???
bus driver.......move that bus:)
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 3:08 am

the fact that only two major USA airlines having been through bankruptcy ever saw the light of day.... for one  Big grin
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
uadc8contrail
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 3:23 am

so are we to assume your reffering to ea,co?????
bus driver.......move that bus:)
 
FA4UA
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 6:23 am

My crystal ball looks like:
in five years or so we might see the 7E7 added to the fleet and the retirement of the 744. The 762 will be gone in about a year or so. I see lots of A320/319 and 772LR for the future. I also see the 737 fleet gone completely in less then 5 years.

there's no way we'd buy more 737's. We need to streamline to one narrowbody aircraft (maybe two because the 757 will be around for awhile).

FA4UA
The debate continues... Starwood or Hyatt... which is better
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 9:40 am

UA getting rid of their Airbuses? UA is the world's largest Airbus operator (in terms of Airbus equipment, not total equipment)...forget it...
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
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American 767
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 9:44 am

FA4UA is right. I don't know if they will order the 7E7 but the 767-200's are likely the next aircraft to go now that the 727's, 737-200's, DC-10's and Classic 747's are gone. The 767-200's will probably be gone in two years from now, the oldest one will be 25, if not two years maybe three or four but definitely before 2010, the 300's yes those will still be around in 2010. They have indeed a large young Airbus fleet, so the A319's and A320's will soldier on for many years to come, definitely after 2015. The 737's, all Classic 2nd generation models, will be gone before the Airbus and the 757's are gone. The 747's, only the 400's are still around, will be gone before the 777's are gone. The last 777 won't be retired before 2025!

So when United exits bankruptcy and gets reorganized, they'll move on to fewer types in the fleet. In the long run the fleet will look like this:
Airbus A319/A320, they aren't going to order the A321 are they?
Boeing 757, soon to be out of production but will continue to fly for years to come
Boeing 767 (300 only), they aren't going to order the 400 are they?
Boeing 777, the flagship in United's fleet.
United won't add a new type to its fleet for a long time.

IAD, ORD, DEN and SFO will still be the four main hubs in the system. IAD is the gateway to Europe, SFO is the gateway to Asia, ORD and DEN are the two other hubs. ORD is where United's corporate headquarter is located, DEN is where pilots are trained and SFO is where most aircrafts are maintained. The SFO maintenance center services mostly 747-400, 767-300 and 777 widebody aircraft. They have another maintenance center in ORD but their largest one is in SFO.

Ben Soriano
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ScottishLaddie
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 9:55 am

What's the guesstimate( Big grin) for them exiting chap. 11?
It could be possible that they exit too early and fall straight back down again. ........Couldn't it?
 
artsyman
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 10:01 am

It could be possible that they exit too early and fall straight back down again. ........Couldn't it?
*****

Like US Airways....
 
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ramprat74
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 10:24 am

They have another maintenance center in ORD but their largest one is in SFO.

Great post American767. But UA doesn't do heavy maintenance in ORD. We closed two of our maintenance bases in IND and OAK. We farm out most of our heavy checks now. GSO and BFM are where most of them are overhauled now. There are alot of good laid off UA mechanics on the street now.  Sad
 
klwright69
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 10:32 am

Uadc8contrail, I think he is referring to airlines that have been through chapter 11 and are still around. CO of course, and HP!
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 4:31 pm

What's the guesstimate for them exiting chap. 11?

- As originally stated by management in Dec. 2002, 18 months to two years. Barring any unforeseen events, the expected date is almost right on the original 18 month figure...6/30/2004.

It could be possible that they exit too early and fall straight back down again. ........Couldn't it?

- Anything is possible, of course. However, UA has managed their time while under Ch. 11 much more effectively than US ever did, and the management team led by Tilton is much more capable than Siegel, etc. The results speak for themselves: US is once again in dire straits vs. UAL which posted their first operational profit (what the lenders in Ch. 11 look at) after Q3 and have hit their required financial requirements 11 straight months. UA of course has a significantly better route structure, and their changes to that network, along with lease restructuring and cancellations have allowed them to make the big strides they have in 2003.

My belief (and time will tell if this proves right) is that UA will restructure everything and not leave any issue unresolved before they leave Ch. 11...they've made that point very clear on a number of occaisions. When UA emerges, they will have exit financing in place which is dependent on the ATSB loan being granted, and they will have to continue to meet benchmarks associated with that ATSB loan.

UA has to emerge first, but the first 6 months will truly show how successful their restructuring efforts were. Remember that US looked pretty good for a while after they reemerged, but things have turned south quickly, and it's now obvious they rushed through Ch. 11.

And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
PVD757
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 4:44 pm

I hope that when UA gets out of bankruptcy, they reduce their fleet types. I see no Boeing narrowbodies in their fleet in the next five years(inlcuding 757s). I also see the 762s retired, and maybe the 7E7 being added depending on economic timing in the industry. If they go back to making $1 billion+ for a couple or more years, they would be able to pay enough debt down to maybe get a few of the short range versions to replace their domestic transcon fleet. I don't envision more than 20 being added initially. They will however need this plane because of the lack of fleet type in that size. The 744s might not be around, but I do not see a plane replacing them capacity-wise. If anything, I see United trying to put a new spin on the BA philosophy of trying woo the premium international passenger. I see them relying on their Star partners more unitl they start making a lot more on the positive side.
 
7574EVER
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 5:06 pm

I could definitely see UA being the launch customer, or at least one of the first customers for the 7E7. As for 737NG's I think UAL will be sticking with the stick controlled buses. (fly on a Boeing you get where your going, fly on a bus in god you must trust. J/K I have nothing against airbus at all. I just prefer Boeing.) For now though, I'm very, very excited to see what their new livery will be. I can't wait! Also I believe that they will be the first to test the missle defense system for commercial aircraft. I'm anxiously waiting to see this. Oh yea, in the future, TED will be nothing but a distant memory.
Right rudder....Right rudder...Come on, more right rudder....Right rudder......Aw forget it, I quit!!
 
Paddy
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 5:08 pm

If and when UA is booming again(which I think will happen eventually), here are my predictions:

More flights out of LAX, SFO, IAD, JFK and maybe even SEA to relieve pressure at ORD.
More point to point travel per market demand.
Not too sure about possible overseas destinations, maybe more Asia flights to compete with NW. More destinations in the Middle East (DXB, BGH, CAI etc).
A combination of EMB190's, A319's and A320's to replace 737's.
Maybe A321's to fit between A320 and 7E7short-range.
7E7's to replace 757's and 767's.
More 772ER's.
When 744's are phased out, a combination of 773ER and 747NG will replace them.


 
uadc8contrail
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Sun Jan 18, 2004 5:23 pm

paddy,
good irish name....am trying to understand your thought process....first the next bird to go to gyr or vcv is the 67-200...next the 37 is going as the retrofit is due on the 37 by 2005 on the rudders and ual is not going to throw $$$around when they are starting to hit the upper end of the usable life,,,,there will not be any a/c flying from brazil in ua colors ie:170/190, at least mainline. sea, what can we say ....lhr route was sold to ba and nrt is the other intl, dont know if they cud activate the hkg route or if they still have the auth to op it, compete with nw????only cities ua does not fly out of the usa that nw does is dtw/pdx/msp/anc to nrt...can not see ua doing any of thoses cities, keep the 400s and if things look good lease some 773lr as the 400 can do more and the lease rates on it are lower then the 777-200....also on south america----spin the wheel becuz i have no idea what glen and his posse are doing with that little corner of the world,,,,best bet is go back into akl after the dust settles as nz will eventually get with qf
bus driver.......move that bus:)
 
bistro1200
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Mon Jan 19, 2004 3:05 am

Couple of points you missed:

1) United will re-enter the all-freighter cargo game, perhaps with ACMI or wet-lease 747-400Fs that UA pilots already know how to fly (differences training only). The DC-10 as a freighter was horrible, a 747 on UA's network is a much better fit.

2) United reduced their fleet already from 8 aircraft types to five (737, A319/320, B757/767, B777, B747-400. Retired: DC-10, B727, B737-200, B747-200). Going down to four will require the elimination of one more, namely the B737 series in a few years, but that will be very gradual.

3) More Pacific flying. Expect to see more cities/routes in the Pacific, including NEW cities and routes (Think SGN). Also those B747s now cost the same or less than B777s, in terms of lease rates and crew costs. This makes previously unprofitable routes now able to be flown profitably.

4) Bankruptcy exit timing: There has been considerable cost reductions all across the company, including payroll, lease rates, and properties management (like gate leases). Most importantly, there has been a huge shift in the thinking among staff working at all levels. Items such as cost control, customer satisfaction, and efficiency are now on everyone's mind, and the cavalier attitude of days gone by have been largely eliminated. Additionally, operating performance has been off the charts, with more company records for on-time, completion, and mishandled bags broken in 2003 than any other year. If anything gets UA out of bankruptcy, it will be the performance of the people working there, not Chase, JP Morgan, and Glenn Tilton alone.

Tilton was very clear on his arrival at UA: "The competition is not each other, but American, Northwest, and Delta. We need to beat them and not ourselves."
Measure to the millimeter, mark with a crayon, cut with an axe.
 
ordpark
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Mon Jan 19, 2004 3:56 am

Baw 2198 -

If only you were right about the fleet makeup....but unfortunately, were probably married to Airbus for the forseeable future....

The 757? If only we had more of them!!! What a great airplane!

The 737's, again much more reliable but are beginning to show thier age and miles....

-400's another great Boeing and they will be around for quite some time since, as was mentioned above, they're now cheaper to lease and operate then the 777's

The big guppies - 777's will also be with us for quite some time - good airplane.

a321's - I wouldn't bet against us getting them...Airbus would love to see us replace the 757's with them although in my mind they don't come close.

and God forbid we go for the 330/340 and I don't even want to talk about the 380!

as for taking pressure off ORD - now that the new runways are getting closer to reality (and I know that they will take time) our operation at ORD in the future will only get bigger - the place is a cash cow even with the ATC problems we face today!
 
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mariner
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Mon Jan 19, 2004 4:37 am

Ordpark:

It probably won't happen, but I think it would be interesting if UAL did order a small number of A380's.

There must be routes where it could be used - LHR, SYD, NRT - but, more importantly, it would steal a huge march on the competition.

AMR probably won't buy them, nor CAL, and I doubt that DAL could, with their present financial woes. Which only leaves NWAC, and that's doubtful.

So an A380 order would make UAL the only US airline flying 'em, to compete with the foreign airlines flying the A380, a number of them on UAL routes.

It would also get some huge headlines, such as: "We're baaaack - big time!"

Then again, it UAL doesn't buy the plane and NWAC does, they easily boast that they've got the biggest!

 Smile/happy/getting dizzy

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
iflyatldl
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RE: UA After Bankruptcy

Mon Jan 19, 2004 4:50 am

Lots of paint for it's new identity for it's self and little bro TED.  Big grin Can of paint just changes everything..... Big grin
Ah, Summer, Fenway Park, Boston Red Sox and Beer.....