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EK413
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Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Tue Jan 20, 2004 3:19 pm

HONG KONG-BASED Cathay Pacific Airways may consider purchasing up to 15 B747-400s to boost its passenger and freight capacity to meet with unexpected growth in demand.
According to the airline's Deputy Chairman and Chief Executive Officer David Turnbull, the local market has recovered much quicker than the airline had anticipated , and it will potentially suffer a serious shortfall in capacity over the next year.
Although Mr Turnbull suggests that the airline could look to purchase new equipment from either Airbus or Boeing, the airline is in need of additional capacity in the short-term and is understood to be seeking the aircraft from the second-hand market. With airlines such as British Airways and United Airlines looking to retire many of their B747-400s from service, there will be no shortage of options and Cathay is expected to be able to purchase the aircraft at a fraction of the cost of new-build models. The new aircraft will be used on passenger services, allowing older B747-200 models to be converted to freighters for operation with the airline's cargo arm. However, with the airline being touted as a potential launch customer for the new B747-400 conversion under development between Boeing and Xiamenbased Takoo Aircraft Engineering Company, it is still possible that some aircraft may be converted to cargo configuration.

Airliner World February 2004.
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
N754PR
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Tue Jan 20, 2004 5:33 pm

Sorry EK413 but this is old news and there are at least two topics talking about this.
Bush, your a sad, sad man.
 
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EK413
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Tue Jan 20, 2004 7:36 pm

I wasnt aware of that. Where is the other two topics Confused
Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
cx251
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Tue Jan 20, 2004 10:30 pm

EK413:

This piece of news is old and also contains incorrect information. Cathay does NOT have any B747-200 passenger version for quite a while. Majority of the 2nd hand B747-400s will be converted to special freighters. (CX will indeed be the launch customer for this type) These SFs will then phase out the old B747-200 freighters.

Furthermore, CX is not likely to buy 2nd hand B744s from UA since UA's engines are not Rolls Royce.
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Tue Jan 20, 2004 11:04 pm

If cargo remains a good market, then the Classics will continue to fly in the Cx fleet until they fall to bits. We are indeed close to getting up to 15 744s probably from BA, and either order 9-10 A330s or 773s...probably not ERs.
 
anxebla
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 8:24 am

Does CX interested in a new generation of B-747 (advanced) or just in used B744??? and what about A-380 for CX? Does anyone know if CX is a "candidate" airline?
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 8:29 am

a new generation of B-747 (advanced)

I find it quite interesting that so many posters here are convinced that Boeing will be selling some form of revamped 747NG this year.... when they haven't even proposed one (for this month  Laugh out loud), not to mention actually gotten it board-approved and set to be offered.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 12:15 pm

There are several seperate fleet requirements at this stage, and it is easy to get them confused.

Firstly, we need freighters. This is obviously coming from the second hand 744s to be converted. Secondly, we need interim growth on the longhaul fleet and aircraft to replace the 4 A340-300s going off lease starting next year. This is going to come from 2nd hand 744s also. If we buy 15 744s from BA then they would provide enough aircraft for these two requirements.

We also need growth on our regional fleet, and will shortly be ordering 9 or 10 regional aircraft, being the 777-300 and/or A330-300.

Looking ahead to 5-6 years time, we will need a replacement for our longhaul fleet. By then the 744s will be getting old. At the moment there is not much choice for 744 replacements, and Cathay is hoping for the 747Adv to be made by Boeing, otherwise the choice is A340-600 or 777-300ER, neither of which are worthy replacements (as much as I like the 773ER!).

Cathay is eyeing up the A380 and 7E7 with interest, although the A380 is not being given very serious consideration at this stage. The 7E7 however would be good if we want to fulfil our plan of flying to every major regional city every two hours. We shall see!
 
PVD757
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 1:46 pm

The 773ER not a worthy replacement? How about we let a couple of years go by before we decide this? The plane isn't even in revenue service and we have already decided it's junk. The 744 will be hard to replace in a lot of fleets and many more hearts. I'm sure it can be done though.
 
rjpieces
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RE: Why Didn't NW Take The 764?

Wed Jan 21, 2004 1:49 pm

I think what CX Flyboy means is that the 777-300ER is not the best replacement for 744s for an airline that fills them. Even though many airlines are thinking of replacing 744s with 773ERs/A346s this is at a loss of capacity.
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nethkt
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 1:57 pm

SARS, SARS and SARS will keep Cathay from buying new aircrafts. Also keep them not to be the world no.1 airlines.

Poor Cathay!  Big grin Watch out of another SARS!!
Let's just blame it on yields.
 
cx251
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 1:59 pm

I guess what 'worthy replacement' means here is the cost of the actual aircraft. At the moment B777-300ER is the most expensive aircraft available in Boeing, even more expensive than a brand-new B747-400ER. Since CX needs to replace it's old B747-400s it would be quite a big sum to order 15 or so B773s in one go.
 
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EK413
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 2:12 pm

Cx251

EK413:

"This piece of news is old and also contains incorrect information. Cathay does NOT have any B747-200 passenger version for quite a while. Majority of the 2nd hand B747-400s will be converted to special freighters. (CX will indeed be the launch customer for this type) These SFs will then phase out the old B747-200 freighters".
"Furthermore, CX is not likely to buy 2nd hand B744s from UA since UA's engines are not Rolls Royce".

Okay, I have read the information and posted the info. in Airliners.Net to see how accurate this information is. If you read carefully CX is in need of increased capacity, so be it Rolls Royce powered B744s or not CX need aircraft!

Don't point the finger at me Cx251, point it at Airliner World mag!


Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
lutfi
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 2:14 pm

Yes, B773ER or A346 are a loss of about 10-15% of capacity against B744.

If no B747ADV, expect mix of A380 and B773ER to replace B744, but this will be some way off, oldest CX B744 is only 15 years old.
 
PVD757
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 2:32 pm

While the UA 744s might not have the same engines, BA has RRs on theirs and they would probably be easier to add. BA is definitely looking to get rid of some of these as they target premium passengers, not the cattle flyers. On other threads, CX was supposedly unhappy with their A346s. If that is true, they need planes, period. The normally aspirated( Nuts) 773 could provide some relief. Maybe some of the lessors have a couple to move and they could grab them for a couple of years. Granted, this would only help on the shorter routes, but it might mean that some 744s on shorter routes could rotate onto longer routes.......
 
n949wp
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 2:39 pm

Nethkt,

Beware of the H5N1 chicken flu yourself!!  Acting devilish

'949
 
777MAS
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 2:46 pm

I do find it a wonder that CX hasn't ordered the A380 yet.

As for the 747s, what about the 747-400ER? Seems there hadn't been any takers other than QF.
 
PVD757
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 3:45 pm

I think that the 747-400ER is not an option right now. If they are even contemplating the A380 in the future, then they cannot afford to buy this also. Carriers are realizing that there is a glut in used aircraft right now and for the near future. If they commit to an aircraft type and decide they might not like it, they may not be able to unload it that easily. I realize that purchase agreements have clauses in them regarding satisfaction, but these might start to disappear.
 
cx251
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 4:40 pm

EK413:

Well i'm not pointing my finger at you at all whatsoever - just pointing out some incorrect information. I have read Airliner World mag before as well and it's............. oh well, haha...
 
B2707SST
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 4:45 pm

Interesting fodder for the rumor mill. The 747, A340, and 777ER variants aren't very suited to regional routes, leaving the A330-300 and 777-300A as the largest alternatives. But the 777-200A and the A330-300 are much more similar than the 773 and A333, which seem rather far apart for a specific mission profile.

Is CX looking at more 772As or are they definitely going with the stretch? Looking at the second-hand market, they could probably get some 772As from BA or even UA, if they can accept GE or PW engines instead of Rollers. Apart from CX, only TG and EK operate 777-200As with RR engines, and EK is desperate for any widebody they can get their claws on. TG recently ordered A340s, but are they also getting rid of their 777s? I know they had some problems with ETOPS.

--B2707SST
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lutfi
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 4:53 pm

CX did buy a second hand B772A from Boeing...

B773 and A330 fit well together for CX.

A330 311 seats
B772 343
B773 382

So the B772 and A330, as well as the B772 and B773 are only 10% apart in capacity - hardly worth bothering to operate two types.

But A330 and B773 are 20% difference in capacity, which is worth having
 
BOEING747400
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 5:37 pm

CX really does need new 744s because their last 744 was delivered around 1995 which means all of their 744s are at least 9-10 years old right now. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong here.

CX 744s don't look as pretty with RR engines so it'll be really nice to see their new 744s in GE engines which definitely looks sexier. Regular 744s with B1F and/or 744ERs with B5F would be awesome!
 
buckfifty
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Wed Jan 21, 2004 5:55 pm

The current estimate for the 744 fleet in CX is for another 10 to 15 years of service, which is pushing it into the 2010-2015 bracket. So any aircraft added to the fleet would be a supplement, not a replacement.

I find it quite interesting that so many posters here are convinced that Boeing will be selling some form of revamped 747NG this year.... when they haven't even proposed one (for this month ), not to mention actually gotten it board-approved and set to be offered.

CX is still hoping for some sort of sign from Boeing that they would start up the Advanced program again, as the 744 is just about the perfect aircraft for most of Cathay's routes, in terms of capacity, capability and flexibility. If a 744 can be had with lower operating costs and significantly further range, I'm sure CX would snap them up right now. The current 744ER is not enough of an improvement to justify the purchase price for a brand new airframe, so it seems that CX is holding their cards till a worthy replacement comes up.

On the other hand, CX is not relinquishing their A346's, but there are still operational requirements that need to be sorted out before they get placed on the HKG-JFK direct route. IMO, if the issues with the 346's will get resolved this year, and the aircraft proves itself in the operational theatre, you will probably see more orders for the type. If not, I'm sure the 773ER will be the next in line (thus fulfilling CxFlyboy's wishes). But again, these are not replacements for the 744.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Thu Jan 22, 2004 3:59 am

Is CX looking at more 772As

Nope. In fact, they once put a good bit of effort in trying to get rid of them (mostly due to their undersirable SCDs).



but are they also getting rid of their 777s? I know they had some problems with ETOPS

TG's keeping them... even after temporarily voluntarily withdrawing them from ETOPS operations a while back
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SIMPLICITY
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Thu Jan 22, 2004 4:24 am

spotter wise...
I would like to see more A330 in the fleet....

customer wise...
I would like to see more 744 with RR engines...they are perfectly matched!! The GE's are ugly enough, CX aren't that sort...sorry BOEING747400

Buckfifty:
I ain't convince that CX will start to replace their 747's in 2010-2015...I thought their policy is to have a young fleet...and the majority of their fleet are 747s...
 
buckfifty
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Thu Jan 22, 2004 9:21 am

I ain't convince that CX will start to replace their 747's in 2010-2015...I thought their policy is to have a young fleet...and the majority of their fleet are 747s...

It's been in the Hong Kong news for the last couple of months now, tied with the news of buying used 744's. I'm sure you've read it.
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Thu Jan 22, 2004 3:06 pm

SIMPLICITY,

Buckfifty is correct, we plan to continue using the 744s till the are 25 years old, unless there is a major change on the current operating costs and economic climate. This has been stated by management.
 
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EK413
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Thu Jan 22, 2004 3:57 pm

Cx251

EK413:

"Well i'm not pointing my finger at you at all whatsoever - just pointing out some incorrect information. I have read Airliner World mag before as well and it's............. oh well, haha"...

I was under the impression you had been pointing the finger at me...

 Big thumbs up


Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. We are tonight’s entertainment!
 
Motorhussy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Thu Jan 22, 2004 7:09 pm

Well the retirement of this second-hand 744 fleet will come in time for the (surprise) introduction of an A380 fleet from ILFC. This fits with CX's strategy of not being a launch customer but employing aircraft when they're sure of them - teething problems etc are ironed out.
come visit the south pacific
 
Hamlet69
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 2:34 am

"This fits with CX's strategy of not being a launch customer but employing aircraft when they're sure of them - teething problems etc are ironed out."

. . . as they did with the 777-200/-300, the A340-600? I would say the A340-600 has had more than its fair share of 'teething problems,' many of them exprienced by CX themselves.

CX will order the A380 if it sees a need for the aircraft. According to the CX employees here, that will apparently not be for the foreseeable future.

Regards,

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
ultrapig
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 2:45 am

I'm interested at how a main line carrier like CP picks up used aircraft-I understand that these are not off the assembly line duplicates but are manufactured differently for each customer-How much work would it take to standardize them? How much less does a 10 year old 747-400 sell fro than a new one- how much more in maintains does it occur and is it like a used car-more expensive to finance?
 
na
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 3:19 am

Having flown CX several times FRA-CLK I absolutely don´t understand why they are so shy of ordering A380s. The 744s are always packed. Downsizing to (possible) 773ERs would be dump stupid.
But its a smart move to go for second hand 744s now. The Jumbojet is a longlife aircraft. Its a perfect interim deal before the 747 NGs (hopefully come) around 2009.
 
airways6max
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 3:22 am

Cathay Pacific believes that it is making a sound business decision, that more 747s will increase their capacity, but also allow for some scheduling flexibility, which it would not be able to do with the Airbus A380.
 
Hamlet69
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 5:51 am

Cathay is also just coming off of the experience of having to park nearly 1/3 of their fleet (IIRC) during the last downturn. For the next downturn, the first aircraft to be parked would also be the hardest to fill - thus a potential A380 fleet. OTOH, the A380 would also (presumably) be their most expensive aircraft. Thus, you would have a situation whereby you'd be paying an arm and a leg to have the aircraft sit around. It's enough to scare anybody.

Hamlet69
Honor the warriors, not the war.
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 7:02 pm

Ultrapig,

A new 744 at list price costs about $180 Million. A secondhand 744 probably costs around $45 Million I would guess. Also, the second hand 744s will be used for another 10-15 years or so, till 2015ish, whereas a brand new one off the line would have a life of around 25-30years, especially as a freighter, taking them to 2030 or more. By 2030, the economics of the 744 will probably look really bad, with new aircraft by then flying with probably 40% lower operating costs, so realistically, you would have to retire the 744s when they're 15-20 years old if you bought then this year, and that is just a waste of money.
The reason why Cathay is looking for secnd-hand airframes instead of new planes is just because there is nothing out there suitable as a replacement in the long term of a 744. Everything else is either too small or too big.
 
ka
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 11:14 pm

ILFC expects delivery of its first of 5 A380 in autumn of 2007. To my knowledge they have not named any operators yet. CX ??? I would not be surprised at all. Actually I believe it.

KA

[Edited 2004-01-23 15:26:03]
Keep smiling - you might be on Radar!
 
CX Flyboy
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RE: Cathay Eyes Additional B747s....

Fri Jan 23, 2004 11:24 pm

Our management has said that the plane is too big and that we are not seriously considering the A380, so it would surprise me, but you never know!

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