usnseallt82
Posts: 4727
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2004 4:49 pm

Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:03 pm

I'm curious to ask what airlines people think will last over the next several years. Its apparent that a few major carriers seem to be in jeopardy these days, but which ones do you think will stick it out and which ones won't?

Or, better yet, which ones would you LIKE to see gone and which ones would you like to see stay?

My votes for the lasting carriers will be AA, DL, UA, WN, and F9.

Cheers!  Big thumbs up
Crye me a river
 
COIAH99
Posts: 242
Joined: Sun Dec 21, 2003 3:41 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:06 pm

Unseallt82...you forgot CO!  Big grin
I honestly don't want to see any go. I still think back to TWA, Pretty sad what happened to all those employees.
Work Hard Fly Right
 
theflcowboy
Posts: 357
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2004 3:44 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:08 pm

I would like to see B6 grow. They have a great route system in place and a nice plane to fly. Plus their policy of no overbooking flights is nice too.

MD
A318, A320, A332, A333, B1900, B722, B732, B733, B734, B735, B737, B738, B772, CR1, CR2, CR7, CR9, MD80, MD81, MD82, MD8
 
theflcowboy
Posts: 357
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2004 3:44 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:08 pm

I would like to see B6 grow. They have a great route system in place and a nice plane to fly. Plus their policy of no overbooking flights is nice too.

MD
A318, A320, A332, A333, B1900, B722, B732, B733, B734, B735, B737, B738, B772, CR1, CR2, CR7, CR9, MD80, MD81, MD82, MD8
 
usnseallt82
Posts: 4727
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2004 4:49 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:08 pm

You're right, CO!  Big thumbs up I guess I've just assumed over the past few months that since CO has been doing very well, they're not in the running for the chopping blocks! Although, I guess anything is possible, but I really have very few doubts that they will be able to push through.

Cheers!
Crye me a river
 
usnseallt82
Posts: 4727
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2004 4:49 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:10 pm

I think B6 will be a major LCC fairly soon, which will be a nice addition to the increasing lineup of low fare travel options. Also, and more importantly, I hope they stick the financial stick so far up AA's ass that the airline has no choice but to admit their fallible nature these days and bow to the crumbs of LCC's!

But that's just me.  Big thumbs up

Cheers!
Crye me a river
 
7574EVER
Posts: 462
Joined: Sun Jan 04, 2004 4:47 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:11 pm

US Airways is DOOMED!!! I think UA will make a rebound and American will be once again climbing the ladder to the top.

[Edited 2004-01-24 07:12:27]
Right rudder....Right rudder...Come on, more right rudder....Right rudder......Aw forget it, I quit!!
 
usnseallt82
Posts: 4727
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2004 4:49 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:17 pm

As far as International carriers are concerned, I don't think BA, AF, QF, and CX will ever die, but some of the LCC's in Europe may not be around too much longer.

Cheers!
Crye me a river
 
aa757first
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Aug 03, 2003 11:40 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 4:03 pm

I hope AA gets stronger. I hope their Asian network grows, and I also hope they are able to protect DFW.

AAndrew
 
futureualpilot
Posts: 2402
Joined: Thu May 25, 2000 10:52 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sat Jan 24, 2004 4:06 pm

I see mostly who we have today, except US Airways, who unless by some miracle, seems doomed.

Life is better when you surf.
 
Phaeton
Posts: 398
Joined: Sat Jan 24, 2004 7:19 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 3:33 am

I have to add one more to the list of airlines that are doomed: Swiss
"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it.", Winston Churchill
 
LHSebi
Posts: 1007
Joined: Wed Jan 07, 2004 4:24 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 3:44 am

I highly doubt that Lufthansa will go broke anytime soon (or later for that matter)!

Sebastian
I guess that's what happens in the end, you start thinking about the beginning.
 
luv2fly
Posts: 11056
Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:29 am

I see UA emerging stronger out of bankruptcy, AA getting better, CO and NW will be fine, DL not sure here, pilots are playing hard ball and the facts do not lie! I could see them downsizing if things do not work out, I really do not see them going away totally tho. Of course WN, B6, F9 and FL, US is a wait and see what happens here, tho I do not hold out much hope, Midwest not sure, have not heard anything lately on them, I feel tho since they have strayed so much from what they originally were it might be hard for them. HP seems to have turned the corner so I could see them being OK or becoming part of someone, TZ looks OK right now as they were able to work on the huge debt payments for now. Spirit not really sure here as they are a private company. AS I really do not follow them tho everything I hear about them sounds like they are doing OK. HA and AQ I really do not follow them as well.
You can cut the irony with a knife
 
yanksn4
Posts: 1367
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 10:05 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:34 am

Two Carriers that will be gone:

US Airways (unfortunately, but hopefully bought by UA)
Midwest Express
2013 Airports: EWR, JFK, LGA, LIS, AGP, DEN, GIG, RGN, BKK, LHR, FRA, LAX, SYD, PER, MEL, MCO, MIA, PEK, IAH
 
OttoPylit
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RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:33 am

FLCowboy, every start up claims to not overbook flights. Basically because they are new and don't see the possible lost revenue until later. I remember that Southwest once claimed no overbookings, and now they overbook. I remember that Valujet/Airtran claimed to never overbook flights, and now they do. Jetblue says they will never overbook flights, give it a year or two and they will. I guarantee it.

They will analyze their flights, see that X number of people don't show up on certain days/flights, and will start increasing revenue by booking more people on those flights.
I don't have a microwave, but I do have a clock that occasionally cooks shit.
 
ScottishLaddie
Posts: 2309
Joined: Sat Jan 03, 2004 8:30 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 10:47 am

From what I have heard AC needs some major changes if it is to survive in it's current state.
 
usnseallt82
Posts: 4727
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2004 4:49 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:18 pm

As far as international carriers go, I definitely agree that Lufthansa will last out just about any other competitors when times get rough, alongside AF and BA.

Cheers!
Crye me a river
 
elwood64151
Posts: 2410
Joined: Fri Feb 08, 2002 10:22 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:41 pm

I hope that no carriers die, and that in fact we gain a few more.

However, I would not be surprised by any of DL, UA, AA, or US hitting seriously hard times this year. I would also not be surprised by a YX bankruptcy.

Further, no carrier is safe. FL, F9, WN, and B6 are all doing wonderfully, but B6 just reported that Q4 traffic was essentially flat over 2002. That's bad news for any airline, but especially bad for one who's finances are based upon growth.

So I'm not counting anyone out--or in--yet.
Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.
 
cloudy
Posts: 1613
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RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Mon Jan 26, 2004 4:03 am

FLCowboy, every start up claims to not overbook flights. Basically because they are new and don't see the possible lost revenue until later. I remember that Southwest once claimed no overbookings, and now they overbook. I remember that Valujet/Airtran claimed to never overbook flights, and now they do. Jetblue says they will never overbook flights, give it a year or two and they will. I guarantee it.
-----

But did those others require payment at the time of reservation, as JetBlue does? At least I have heard that this is JetBlue's policy. This would seem to be a good way to keep no-shows to a minimum
 
fraT
Posts: 992
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 4:32 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:18 am

I really have some doubts about Delta.
It seems as every airline in the U.S. (besides US) is on the way up, only DL's losses don't go down. Everybody has done a lot of things to save money, I havn't heard anything about DL.
 
txagkuwait
Posts: 1388
Joined: Fri Aug 27, 1999 7:39 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Mon Jan 26, 2004 5:32 am

Ottopylit:

I've been around, associated with, or known somebody of significance within Southwest Airlines Co since February 1971. That was 4 months before they inaugurated service.

Southwest has NEVER, and I do mean NEVER claimed they don't overbook.

I will admit that they didn't overbook for a long time, mainly because they couldn't. Not enough passengers. The first couple of months the average passenger load per flight was about 15. They had 112 seats on the -200s back then. That's not exactly a terrific load factor. 30 passengers on an airplane was considered a really good load. (Break even was somewhere around 34 pax, or 30% LF)

Southwest did not even fill up a flight until November of that 1st year. They did, however, beat the rest of the pack in advising their passengers of their oversale policy. It said, right there in the schedule and on the cash register ticket...."we overbook....if we deny you boarding we will pay you." (The details were left sort of vague).

At any rate, I am not arguing with your post or philosophy here. Just your facts. Make sure they are right or cite a source.

have anice day

TxAg
 
texan
Posts: 4059
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2003 2:23 am

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Mon Jan 26, 2004 7:11 am

DL will be ok eventually. While it is possible that they could enter Chapter 11 reorganization within the next year or so, it is doubtful that they will enter Chapter 7. Remember, companies have more than one life in Chapter 11. US has been there before, and TW went there 2 or 3 times, and CO has gone there twice. AA and DL have yet to enter Chapter 11, so they have tons of life left in them even if they are forced to reorganize. UA all depends on employee trust in management. If management screws up there like it has in the past (1985, 2000) it could be in serious trouble. UA will probably come out ok, though. US, YX, and TZ are the three that, from what I understand, are in the most trouble. I'm still not sold on B6, nothing against the company or employees, just a very fast growing LCC in New York does not always inspire great trust in long term survivability. Let's hope they do survive, though.

Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
 
kevin752
Posts: 684
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 3:18 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Mon Jan 26, 2004 7:48 am

I think that AA, DL, WN, F9 and CO will always be around in the US for international ailines I think that LH (hope they always stay alive), BA, and AF will be the airlines to lead the future.
"Keep Climbing"
 
usnseallt82
Posts: 4727
Joined: Tue Jan 06, 2004 4:49 pm

RE: Fate Of The Airlines: Who Will Last? Who Won't?

Mon Jan 26, 2004 11:50 am

I would really enjoy seeing B6 develop into a more prominent carrier across the U.S.
Crye me a river