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Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:58 pm

Investing In Aviation

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:34 pm

Hello All!

I have been looking for a while now for some Aviation related companies or funds to invest money into. I am thinking of airlines but other companies as well. Does anyone have any advice or experience in this area?

“Aviation is proof that given, the will, we have the capacity to achieve the impossible.” - Edward Vernon Rickenbacker
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sat Jan 24, 2004 3:38 pm

From what I've heard, don't invest in US Airways!  Big thumbs up

Crye me a river
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sat Jan 24, 2004 8:20 pm

Advice from Warren Buffett........." If you want to become a Millionaire investing in the airlines, start with a Billion dollars"
"It's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog"
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:05 am

I have been considering some airline industry stocks. The way I see it, they are already pretty low, and the industry seems to be picking up again (for instance, CO is at around $17 right now, i can def see that climbing a bit over the next year). I was also thinking about some Boeing-thinking that as the 7E7 starts to come to they should rise a bit also. But who knows.

You can't join the MHC on the ground.
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:12 am

My advice, don't make an investment just because you are an enthusiast of a given industry.

However if you and your broker's research indicate that such an investment would be wise then go ahead... but don't do it b/c you like airplanes.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 3:28 am

Much of the above advice is exactly right - don't be foolish and invest simply because you like aviation. Airlines are a marginally-profitable business at the best of times, and these certainly aren't the best of times.

If I was to invest in aviation, I'd probably look at privatised airport companies. The airport operators normally turn in good profits, are more stable than airlines (you don't usually hear of airports going bust) and will benefit from any upturn in air transport as much as the airlines will.

Of course, if you'd rather gamble then go ahead and pour your money into an airline. But if you get burned, don't say we didn't tell you so...
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 3:38 am

Fourstripe, I have been looking into investing in aviation and I reccomend that you hold on to your money (for now). I have had 2 good picks, Jetblue (JBLU) and Embraer (ERJ). Currently these are both falling and I have already taken my money out but plan to go back in once they level out. The only other aviation stock I would watch is Boeing because I think that it has some potential to rise. As for all of the rest of the airlines, they're too risky and I wouldnt touch them.
Father, Son, HOYA spirit
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:14 am

Let me just say that I wish I invested in AA back in March, which their shares were in the 1.50-2.00/share range. I had planned to, but one of my professors advised against it. Today, they're up around $15.00 a share. Quite a return that would have been....

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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 4:54 am

I wouldn't put my money in JetBlue!!! Over the past couple of months they have made some not so wise decisions. AA is going to run them out of a couple of markets and that wont look good. I personally would put mine in F9, but again don't invest without doing a lot of research and don't do it just because you like airlines!!!!
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 1:56 pm

Definitely do some research...I was lucky enough to get some CO stock when it was around $3-4 a share and now it's around $17. Did get as high as I think $21 for a bit there. Good investment? Maybe. I still think it will get around $30/share. That's when I'll sell.
Work Hard Fly Right
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:45 pm

Investing in airlines is very volatile.More than
most sectors,except retail.In my opinion,
Luv is the most safest,reports gains,time after
time.Amr and Dal, it's nervous time. Amr has done
well in cleaning house,and the stock reflects it, hovering
around 17.But it has a lot more work to do.So does Dal.

Sometimes, logic plays no factor!You can read all the reports you want.It doesn't help. If your a short term
investor,watch the pluses and minuses.

Luv had another gain and doesn't go anywhere
on the market.Go figure! It should be $30-40 a share.
The usual reaction on Wall Street, a company should gain
over a dollar in value a share for a day.WN/LUV high was about
+.57 after the report.That sucks!Tell me about logic.

Tuesday's Off! Do not disturb.
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 2:52 pm

I've invested in many airline stocks over the years...some I made money and some I lost big type. Easy come, easy go. Whatever.

Ironically, the best time to buy airline stocks was in the immediate post-911 period when they hit recent lows....since then the so-called AWST airline index has risen about 20% but still remains low by historical standards....but then so is airline financial performance.

Assuming that the majors will return to profitability and prosper again this decade, a good portfolio might consist of buying AA, CO, DL & NW stock now and hold for 5 years. I would avoid US & UA. JetBlue & Southwest may also not have that much upside potential.

I dumped at the gybe mark in strong winds when I looked up at a Porter Q400 on finals. Can't stop spotting.
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RE: Investing In Aviation

Sun Jan 25, 2004 3:06 pm

The time to invest in airlines was sixteen months ago, back when AII was trading at just under $3 per share. I've seen it as high as $20.00, and it's presently trading around $14.00. AMR was below a dollar, and is now trading near $17.00. Northwest was around $10.00 and is now trading near $25.00.

The time to invest for the short-term has passed, and the industry is still too unstable to make a good long-term investment.

Right now, with the exception of US, which I'd call "sell", I'd call most airline stocks a "hold". Don't buy, don't sell. Check the projections for the end of next quarter, and if they look bad for your airline, sell your stock. If they look good, then I'd still call it a "hold".

But then, I'm not an investment banker.
Those who fail to learn history are doomed to repeat it in summer school.

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