F4N
Topic Author
Posts: 507
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2000 11:37 pm

Too Many Framemakers?

Tue Feb 17, 2004 5:29 am

To all:

It seems to me that the field of large commercial aviation manufacture seems to be not only evolving, but perhaps showing signs of pending overcapacity in another decades' time.

There are of course, Boeing and Airbus fighting it out at the large end but also the RJ makers competing with their current portfolios but also expanding into the realm of A & B with their newer, larger offerings. Then there are the Chinese looming on the horizon with the homegrown model, ostensibly for the domestic market but anyone who believes that is naive to say the least. Then there is the FD 728/928. And the Russians; enormously clever and talented bureaus handicapped by the legacy of communism. Such will not always be the case, however. They are looking to re-invigorate their commercial aviation sector and seem to be willing to finally do what it takes to make it work.

And so; lots of potential market overlap & product duplication chasing a very finite market. Given the level of coporate rivalry/animosity and gov't interference that exists with 4 major players, what will happen when there are more? The potential commercial & political fallout could be huge or could be nothing and we could enter a new golden age of commercial aviation.

Yes, greatly oversimplified, but...Thought and comments?

regards,

F4N
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: Too Many Framemakers?

Tue Feb 17, 2004 5:38 am

Don't forget that Mitsubishi is planning to enter the market with its own transport category airplane. The lower end of the market will certainly be crowded.
 
F4N
Topic Author
Posts: 507
Joined: Fri Mar 17, 2000 11:37 pm

RE: Too Many Framemakers?

Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:47 am

N79969:

I had not heard that Mitsubishi planned on entering the market. What class of a/c are they planning. I see thought, that Bombardier has announced that the cost of their planned 100 seaters is ~ 2 billion $C. It will be interesting to see if A & B abdicate the 100-150 seat segment to the RJ makers.

regards,

F4N
 
Arsenal@LHR
Posts: 7510
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 2:55 am

RE: Too Many Framemakers?

Thu Feb 19, 2004 6:55 am

It could get overcrowded if Russia re-enters the regional jet market, with the RRJ (Russian regional jet) and if the Chinese start their own regional aerospace programme. Meanwhile the Japanese are trying to enter the SST market with their Concorde replacement programme, even it it has been set back a few years. The regional jet market could suffer from overcapacity if the Russians and the Chinese kick-start their own niche markets. But Embraer and Bombardier will continue to dominate the RJ market, with Airbus and Boeing battling for the worldwide market from 100-seaters upwards. But i reckon capacity has been with cut BAe systems and Fokker ending their RJ production lines.
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