jetbluefan1
Posts: 2867
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Sun Feb 29, 2004 8:17 am

I'd like to get your scoop on this, and please do not start going on and on about how JetBlue's costs will rise, yada yada yada...please answer my question and only post what you may feel is appropriate.

JetBlue has some (not many) short-hop routes, and most of them have a lot of frequencies:

JFK-BUF (5 going to 6 5/1)
JFK-ROC (4)
JFK-SYR (3)
JFK-BVT (3)
LGB-SLC (1)
LGB-LAS (2 - ending 5/1)
LGB-OAK (6 - going to 5 5/1)

As you can see, JetBlue operates (or will operate) over 15 flights from JFK to Upstate New York and Vermont. My question is: why don't other airlines take advantage of these routes? JetBlue has only very little competition on these routes from EWR and LGA with CO X and US X. Therefore, they can basically charge as much as they want and people will still fly with them anyway because of obvious reason (ie: big planes). So why did AE just give up on the routes?

It does seem weird to me that other airlines aren't trying to take advantage of these routes. In the past, you have seen DL and AA add flights and routes to compete with JetBlue. But why wouldn't they do the same for these routes?

I would think that these flights are very profitable for the airline, but I don't have any hard facts. Say the bulk of passengers pay $79 for a one-way ticket (fares range from $49-109, so I'm taking the average). From experience, flights have generally been 70% full on weekdays (109 passengers), so that's $8,611 right there. On the weekends, flights are generally around 90% full (140), so that's $11,060. And I won't even go into the higher fares on Saturdays and Sundays...

So there's a good amount of money coming in on those flights. These estimated numbers are actually underestimated as many people do walk-ups on these routes.

As far as the short-hop flights from LGB, I bet they aren't as profitable because they have lots of competition and not the highest loads.

Any insite, comments, observations, etc. would greatly be appreciated.

JetBluefan1
 
Randy4920
Posts: 117
Joined: Mon Oct 09, 2000 12:10 pm

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Sun Feb 29, 2004 10:37 am

i have heard that now, the LGB-LAS-LGB routing will stay around
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2867
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Sun Feb 29, 2004 11:20 am

Currently it's only going till April 30th - that's the last date that you can book. But if they decide to keep it running, then that would be awesome too.

JetBluefan1
 
JBLUA320
Posts: 2997
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RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Sun Feb 29, 2004 12:18 pm

Well, I think that other carriers do have a presence on the routes above, especially Continental Express with their Newark connections to Continental Connection within New York and the upstate/New England region. But quite honestly, airlines like Continental make most of their money elsewhere, so the flights, Id think, are more to route thru passengers from Newark onward up north, with the exception of a few business oriented routes and perhaps some leisure traffic to Vermont.

While jetBlue has a goldmine on the JFK-Florida routes, they dont have many places elsewhere to turn. However, Continental is well established in just about every corner of this country- there is no pressure on them to increase capacity, because more capacity means more planes, and more planes equals more money that they'd have to spend.

jetBlue flies these routes because they know they can fill them and make money. An airline like CO doesn't HAVE to increase capacity- with all their other routes around the world, a network far more expansive then jetBlue's, there is just no need.

My 2 cents...
JBLU
 
akjetBlue
Posts: 777
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RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Sun Feb 29, 2004 9:01 pm

First we'll start off with US Air... Remember MetroJet? Awesome idea running some of the same routes that jetBlue is now running. Most of the NYC to upstate routes are still there with US but now operated by US Express. Large old aircraft and cheap fares don’t make for big profit…

JetBlue worked so well in the Northeast on short hauls because mainline carriers were charging upwards of $600 for a ticket between places like BUF and NYC. A little much for a 30 minute flight? It cost other airlines too much to operate old aircraft on short hauls. It makes more sense to operate a longer flight to a farther hub.

Cruising at high altitude doesn’t use much gas (compared to the heavy amounts use on climbing…) If you spend most of your money on gas climbing to 20,000 feet only to be there for 20 min before descending, doesn't it seem to make more sense to spend the same amount of money on gas to climb to 20,000 feet and then cruise using a far less amount of gas for two hours cruising? Our Main hub is JFK in NY which happens to be rather close to all the cities in the northeast that we serve, if we had another hub farther away I’m sure you’d see more frequencies to the alternate hub as that you can make more profit on those routes.

Delta has CVG, ATL and DFW, US has CLT, UA has both IAD and ORD, NW has DTW, MEM, and MSP, AA has ORD and DFW. All these cities are moderatly far enough from northeastern cites that a decent profit can be achieved. Most of the upstate and northeastern cities have service to one of the hubs farther away than NY; the longer the aircraft is at cruising altitude the cost of transporting the passenger per mile will drop, letting the amount of profit per mile rise.

JetBlueFan1, have you been to the Airline Economics class taught by Mike Barger at most JetBlue orientations? I think you'd really enjoy it if you haven't already seen it. It explains how we make money, and why we choose to focus on long haul routes rather than short hauls. Notice how we have rarely gone into a market that is "dominated" by another carrier? It doesn't make sense for most carriers unless you can do it cheaper, and make more money while doing it.

Remember how we opened BOS? A whole bunch of flights to many destinations? I'd venture a guess that we're going to open a LARGE new city with many destinations some time after April 30th. In the mean time we're adding the needed aircraft and rather than have them sit, it makes more sense to operate more frequencies on routes we already know are profitable.

Smiles from Orlando,

-PhilzyMCO
Save a horse! Ride a Cowboy!
 
ont 737
Posts: 606
Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2001 10:19 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Sun Feb 29, 2004 10:00 pm

Yes, the word here in LGB is that the 2 LAS and 6 OAK are going to stay at least through the Summer. If those in Forrest Hills decide to use the upcoming deliveries to start up LGA this spring (which is likely, but remember receiving slot allocations and actually starting the flights are two different processes) our OAK and LAS flights will stay.
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2867
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Sun Feb 29, 2004 10:42 pm

Akjetblue,

Are you saying that JetBlue's short-haul flights really aren't too profitable? I don't work for the airline - you do - so I really wouldn't know. I guess that possibly the only airline that could turn a profit on the routes is JetBlue because of customer commitment and new planes, etc., but if it's not too profitable for B6, then I understand why other airlines wouldn't be jumping on for the ride.

And for that new LARGE city, I'd be willing to bet that it's St. Louis. JetBlue can't just sit there idle while STL is basically beggining for new flights. It's not their way of doing things. Remember LAS once National left? Zoom! JetBlue pushed up its start-up date to like 3 months earlier and announced 4 frequencies before the route even started.

ONT7373,

I really do hope they keep those flights from LGB. I like LGB the way it is now. Hopefully the new cities and additional frequencies will be put thru LAX or ONT. Do you know when JetBlue will announce its LGA schedule?

JetBluefan1
 
B6FA4ever
Posts: 748
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 6:49 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 12:11 am

i know a lot of passengers really like LGB because of the time they spend less for checking in and to go through security. but also we have a lot of ppl coming from north LA where LAX would be more preferable to them. I'm really hoping LAX comes soon. we can do so much out of there compared to LGB.

if we do open STL as another city...i think we would do great! (by the way, is there any other LCC serving that city?) but having STL would be a great geographical position for us because first of all we serve no city in the mid-west (sorry, i don't count MSY as part of it) and 2nd, AA would really be the only compitition and they downgrating their hub there to pretty much all Eagle. but honestly i think if we start there, AA may upgrade their eagle flts to mainline to try and compete w/ us.

~B6FA4ever
 
PVD757
Posts: 3030
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RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 12:20 am

Last time I looked, WN has at least a fair amount of service at STL. Something on the order of 75-80 daily flights??? It wouldn't be a walk in the park for B6 to waltz into STL, especially seeing how operating costs at STL aren't the lowest and delays can sometimes severely impact schedules their.
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 12:53 am

JetBlue negotiated something with ATC that allows them to just get above 10,000 for the short hops in the northeast. At 10,000, you lose the speed restriction of 250 kts, but you don't burn the gas to get higher. Also, you don't have to worry about getting a spot in the very crowded jetways that start above FL180 (18,000). This alone helped them save time and money both for the upstate NY flights.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
rjpieces
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RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 1:21 am

Keep in mind that B6 had to start flights to upstate New York as part of the agreement that let them start flights from JFK (which is slot controlled for now). I don't think it was their first choice of cities to serve then but I've heard the flights have grown into pretty good routes for them. Customers love the low fares (since they were used to the majors overcharging the crap out of them) plus it also feeds some of their other JFK flights. Wait until B6 gets the Embraers, those routes will probably see multiple frequencies now.
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 2:25 am

"Wait until B6 gets the Embraers, those routes will probably see multiple frequencies now."

No kidding. That's a slam dunk for them.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 3:02 am

There's no reason to downgrade routes with that high load factor to smaller planes so I'm sure BUF, ROC and SYR will still get A320s. But there are stil routes to explore for example BUF-BOS currently operated only bu US Airways Express charging $600 for this trip. Ideal route for B6 to fly EMB190.
 
mia
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Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 1:40 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 3:03 am

Listen homeboys...WN does short hops here in Florida and im sure they make a killing. Once I had an emergency and I needed to fly MCO-FLL. While continental wanted to charge me 300, Southwest charged me a modest 60. JetBlue needs to bring low fares into the short route markets (maybe even fly to Tallahassee).
"Like all great travelers, I have seen more than I remember, and remember more than I have seen."
 
asuflyer05
Posts: 2054
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 8:53 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 3:03 am

"Remember how we opened BOS? A whole bunch of flights to many destinations? I'd venture a guess that we're going to open a LARGE new city with many destinations some time after April 30th. In the mean time we're adding the needed aircraft and rather than have them sit, it makes more sense to operate more frequencies on routes we already know are profitable."

If history tells us anything, we should see an announcement on new service in the next couple of weeks as JetBlue begins to wind down the winter JFK-Florida routes. Between the aircraft coming off those routes and the new deliveries, they are going to have a couple of aircraft which need to be utilized.

They only requested 10 slot exemptions, and if they use them on flights to Florida, that's what 2-3 aircraft? I'd be interested to know how the Boston flights are performing as I would think we could see additional frequencies on BOS-FLL, BOS-LGB.

Matt
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2867
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 3:10 am

I'd be interested to know how the Boston flights are performing as I would think we could see additional frequencies on BOS-FLL, BOS-LGB.

I was thinking the same thing. You know how JetBlue's fares get higher as the plane fills up? By just scanning through the fares to/from BOS on B6, it looks like JetBlue is doing pretty well there. I too would assume that extra FLL frequencies should be added - but they're returning it to just 1 flight in May. If anything, I think they should add a 3rd flight going year around. And BOS-LGB is too big of a market for only 2 flights. But if anything, JetBlue needs to start flying BOS-SYR, ROC, and BUF. I have a feeling those routes would be VERY popular such as the JFK routes.

JetBluefan1
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 4:07 am

"it makes more sense to operate more frequencies on routes we already know are profitable."

However, when you open up a new feeder... especially a large one, it benefits many of the other feeder routes in that there is a new destination on the network. Those X number of people coming from the new feeder are going to be traveling to SOMEWHERE on the network. Conversely, people who live in current JetBlue cities would now have the option of traveling to the new feeder.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
LambertMan
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RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 4:11 am

PVD, WN basically has STL on its sh*t list. Herbie has said on several occassions that its not meeting expectations. It has been a bad performer for about 2 years or so now and has resulted in a decrease in flights from something like 83 to 58. Quite a big hit.

As for JetBlue, I'm not believing any rumors anymore. I've heard so much crap about JetBlue coming to St Louis in the past, at home and on this board. I refuse to believe a word of it anymore and nobody knows were B6 is going except for when Neelman basically told us about BOS. It would be nice however. Smile
 
PVD757
Posts: 3030
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 4:49 am

Lambert: thanks for the info, sorry to here it's so negative. I was just responding to a comment that there was no (or little) LCC service to STL...I'm sure we will see AA continue to add/upgrade service there as the flights perform better.
 
UN_B732
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RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 5:01 am

BTV cruises at FL210-FL230
-UN
What now?
 
DCA-ROCguy
Posts: 3893
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RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 7:09 am

From what I've read at Aviation Week and elsewhere, Southwest's average flight segment is well under 500 miles, and they are the most profitable major airline. Short haul flights, whatever the fuel burn on climb and descent, are *not* necessarily high-cost.

The 70% figure for ROC on weekdays sounds low. I read in the Democrat & Chronicle during the last year, and have heard from B6 agents at the ROC counter, that it's much higher than that, closer to 90 percent. Frankly, I'm surprised they haven't scheduled a fifth daily again for the summer yet.

Any info on where JetBlue wants to fly from LGA? I'd bet Florida and San Juan, most likely.

As for the Upstate-LGA routes....I don't think you're going to see any increase in network-carrier service. US Airways has a big FF base that helps them fill nine Express dailies on ROC-LGA (as of online timetable last week, probably all DH8's). With JetBlue in the picture, enough people are willing to haul out to JFK that Delta Connection or Continental Express probably couldn't compete offering RJ service to LGA. Only so many people are willing to pay for mainline service.

I haven't looked but would not be surprised if US is running such high frequencies on BUF-LGA and BUF-SYR. In the past decade US Airways has never given Upstate NY a nice benefit like such high-frequency LGA dailies unless there was another factor involved. (Like when the A320's magically started showing up at ROC right after JetBlue entered)

Perhaps US actually can't use all of its huge boatload of LGA slots to maximum efficiency right now (hard to believe considering how in-demand LGA is) and is dumping some on Upstate right now as a squatting tactic until they can use them elsewhere.

I agree, JetBlueFan1, BUF-BOS and ROC-BOS would probably be big winners for JetBlue once the 190's arrive. That is, if AirTran doesn't enter first with 717's. Only low fares will jump-start those once-thriving routes.

Jim
Need a new airline paint scheme? Better call Saul! (Bass that is)
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2867
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: JetBlue Short Hop Routes

Mon Mar 01, 2004 8:33 am

The 70% figure for ROC on weekdays sounds low. I read in the Democrat & Chronicle during the last year, and have heard from B6 agents at the ROC counter, that it's much higher than that, closer to 90 percent. Frankly, I'm surprised they haven't scheduled a fifth daily again for the summer yet.

I've only from the ROC-JFK 5 times - twice during mid-week and 3 times during the weekends. I'm just saying from experience that both flights (one flight = one round-trip) have been roughly 70% full. My mom actually flew on a flight leaving ROC on a WED that had 40 people on it! Onboard they announced open seating. But the weekends have always been high as it's not unusual for someone to go down on Friday night and come back Sunday night. But I agree that 5th flight on the route would definitely do well - there needs to be another flights between 6:15am-11:25am or 11:25am-5:15pm. They're too big of a time gap to keep open, especially with so much demand.

JetBluefan1