jetbluefan1
Posts: 2854
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 5:37 am

In the past week, I read 2 articles stating that the transcon markets are becoming more and more competitive. And with the competition comes lower loads, less money, and more angry airlines. Here are the articles:

http://www.btnmag.com/businesstravelnews/headlines/othernews_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000461643

http://www.usatoday.com/travel/2004-03-15-transcon_x.htm

From the articles, I learned 2 very important things about the trancon market from NYC-CA:

- ATA is stopping EWR-SFO
- HP is losing money on JFK-SFO

My questions are: what do you think will happen? What airline will be the next to drop routes/frequencies? What are the airlines' next moves?

Any input, helpful information, and opinions are very much welcomed.

JetBluefan1
 
Cory6188
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Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2004 12:29 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 5:40 am

Well, I can tell you right now that my flights from EWR-LAX on CO on 762s were oversold in both directions on Dec. 27 - Jan. 3. The gate agents at LAX were really frustrated because, according to them, "all our flights to EWR are oversold, almost everyday."

Apparently, although the yields might not be great, CO is filling their planes. I'm sure that the other majors are doing fine as well - it seems as if the LCCs are really having the difficulty. Maybe people are heading to the established airlines on a flight of that length for things like widebody service and real meals.
 
AA787
Posts: 517
Joined: Wed Feb 04, 2004 7:46 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 6:53 am

Who would like to venture a guess as to the airline that does the best on these routes?

Just curious,
AA787
ET In NYC
 
Guest

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 7:04 am

I'd say UA does the best out of SFO, and AA does the best out of LAX. SFO has the premium market in the SF Bay Area by the balls, and both AA and UA have the lucrative S.A.G. contracts out of LAX.
 
Guest

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 7:04 am

make that UA has the premium market in the SF Bay Area by the balls.
 
jjbiv
Posts: 1203
Joined: Mon Jan 08, 2001 10:58 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 7:19 am

Cory,

ATA's flights were packed around the prime holiday travel dates you mention (Dec. 27 - Jan. 3). The problem is the flights left with only between 30 and 60 customers the majority of the year. Without a hub at either end to make connections, it was a tough route once the competition heated up and capacity increased (keeping all fares low) -- even though the red-eye only had to cover direct variable costs since the aircraft sits idle overnight at SFO if not flying the red-eye. I have the impression that a lot of important lessons were learned. I'd look for another attempt to be made with a different destination for the reason cited above -- the aircraft overnights at SFO between Hawaii turns if not flying. This makes it fairly inexpensive to experiment with new red-eye routes.

joe
 
WMUPilot
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Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2003 2:48 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 12:44 pm

I think it was a smart move to pull out. We can better utilize the aircraft elsewhere. Let everybody else slug it out and lose money. We were smart and stupid to try and take everybody but we where even smarter to get out before we really got hurt.
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futureatp
Posts: 189
Joined: Sun Feb 27, 2000 3:07 pm

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Wed Mar 17, 2004 6:12 pm

As far as HP goes

I work for HP in PHX. Last month I overheard some of our pilots joking about the load on the SFO-JFK route just being about 10 pax or so. But last week I heard(from conversations overheard from pilots) that the particular route is now picking up. Sorry I cannot provide more exact details about the load factors. Dont even know if that route is at a profitible level yet for HP.

John

 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2854
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Thu Mar 18, 2004 5:07 am

I think it was a smart move to pull out. We can better utilize the aircraft elsewhere. Let everybody else slug it out and lose money. We were smart and stupid to try and take everybody but we where even smarter to get out before we really got hurt.

I do agree that a non-profitable route should be pulled - no arguing there. But I really don't think that "everybody else" is losing money. The thing is that ATA is not established in NYC or SFO. There were absolutely no connection opportunities - just O&D. In NYC, B6, DL, AA, UA, and CO all have very loyal followings in NYC, and in SFO, UA, HP, and to a lesser degree, B6.

Now let's say - for example - if ATA flew SFO-LAX, SFO-PHX, LGA-FLL, LGA-CO / KMCO), USA - Florida">MCO, then they'd be more well known in those cities, therefore helping them gain customers more easily on their EWR-SFO flights.

JetBluefan1
 
WMUPilot
Posts: 1428
Joined: Thu Jan 30, 2003 2:48 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Thu Mar 18, 2004 5:58 am

The thing is that ATA is not established in NYC or SFO

ATA is well established in SFO. We have great publiciy in that city and the loads out of SFO are great. I agree that there where no connection oppurtunities on the transcon flights so why would people take them. The only place you could go was EWR-HNL with a stop in SFO.
JetBlue - Bringing humanity back to air travel
 
yanksn4
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Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 10:05 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Thu Mar 18, 2004 6:16 am

With Frontier Airlines having a "mini" hub in Los Angeles, are they one day going to start a LAX-LGA flight? Would they be that crazy to do that?
2013 Airports: EWR, JFK, LGA, LIS, AGP, DEN, GIG, RGN, BKK, LHR, FRA, LAX, SYD, PER, MEL, MCO, MIA, PEK, IAH
 
jetbluefan1
Posts: 2854
Joined: Wed Dec 31, 2003 8:39 am

RE: B6, HP, AA, UA, CO, DL In NYC-CA Game

Thu Mar 18, 2004 7:04 am

With Frontier Airlines having a "mini" hub in Los Angeles, are they one day going to start a LAX-LGA flight? Would they be that crazy to do that?

Only on a Saturday, the only day that the perimeter "law" isn't followed.

Also, if F9 were to start LAX-NYC, I don't think they'd be too happy. With 6 airlines already serving the route, I just don't see F9 entering an already congested market. And if they were to start LAX-NYC, it'd have to be though JFK (which already has B6, UA, AA, HP, DL), or EWR (CO, AA?, UA?).

JetBluefan1