akjetBlue
Posts: 777
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Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 2:19 am

Oil and Energy News

U.S. oil surges past $38 a barrel
Report shows another drop in gasoline supplies
Updated: 11:37 a.m. ET March 17, 2004LONDON - Oil prices roared to fresh one-year highs on Wednesday with U.S. crude hitting $38 a barrel after another drop in already low gasoline supplies.

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U.S. light crude futures rose 42 cents to $38.00 a barrel at 1550 GMT, the highest level since just before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq last year. London Brent crude was up 47 cents at $33.15 a barrel.

Prices jumped after the U.S. government's Energy Information Administration's latest snapshot on the world's biggest oil market showed a further 800,000 barrels decline in gasoline stocks to 199.6 million barrels.

U.S. gasoline supplies are running five percent below the five-year average, sparking concerns refineries will struggle to build supplies in time for the summer holiday driving demand.

"What we're seeing now is that some funds had moved to the side making sure there wasn't a bearish surprise and now they are rotating back into the long side," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates.

U.S. light crude prices have averaged almost $35 a barrel so far in 2004, well above 2003's average price of $31, which was the highest in more than two decades.

Plans by OPEC to cut official production quotas by four percent in April and rocketing Chinese demand have combined to push prices to levels which consuming countries fear could hurt economic growth.

OPEC ministers agreed last month to eliminate 1.5 million barrels per day of supply above existing quotas and cut official production limits in April by one million barrels per day to 23.5 million barrels per day.

While most OPEC ministers have said they intended to implement the April cuts, there have been few signs of cutbacks in March.

Tanker tracking consultant Petrologistics has told clients it expected the 10 OPEC members with quotas to produce 25.63 million barrels a day in March, down just 150,000 barrels per day from 25.78 million barrels per day in February.

That would put the OPEC-10 in March at 1.13 million barrels per day in excess of their official supply quotas of 24.5 million, compared to 1.28 million barrels per day in excess during February.


[Edited 2004-03-17 18:19:41]
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EddieDude
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RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 2:41 am

As if airlines did not have enough problems already. I guess we can expect to see the stock prices of airline companies close with huge losses today.
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carduelis
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RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 2:47 am

Most airlines of any stability actually 'forward buy' their fuel.

The current price is therefore irrelevant!

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anstar
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RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 4:29 am

This would effect United quite a bit then as I believe they weren;t able to hedge their fuel purchases?
 
artsyman
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Joined: Wed Feb 28, 2001 12:35 pm

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 5:51 am

Most airlines of any stability actually 'forward buy' their fuel. The current price is therefore irrelevant!
****

The problem is that people normally hedge their fuel prices for a year or less in advance, and the fuel prices have now been high for a long, long and while some have hedges in places, not many do.

Any $1 per barrel rise in fuel, costs Continental airlines $38,000,000 per year.

J
 
InnocuousFox
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Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 6:32 am

That's one of the reasons WN has been able to weather this out as long as they have... they have one of the best fuel hedges out there. TWA on the other hand was just about paying cash for theirs.
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L-188
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Joined: Wed Jul 07, 1999 11:27 am

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 6:39 am

You know, in 1995 a bill that would have opened the 1002 area of the North Slope of Alaska, was placed on Clinton's desk.

In order to appease the enviromental terrorists that supported the democrats he vetoed if.

If he hadn't oil from ANWR, which is estimated would equal the current 450,000 to 500,000 barrel production from Prudhoe bay would be just hitting the market, considering the 8 to 10 year lag time to develop a field.

So, if your gas prices are high, blame Bill, he had a chance to do something about that and sold out for political gain.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
LJ
Posts: 4127
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 1999 8:28 pm

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 6:51 am

Most airlines of any stability actually 'forward buy' their fuel. The current price is therefore irrelevant!

Many hedges will expire soon or already have been expired as there is absolutly no way one enters into a forward contract beyond a year as it's just too expensive to hedge long term (even a forward contract with a maturity of one year isn't cheap). Furthermore, one can argue if it's wise to hedge at these levels. The current levels are high and I reckon you can imagine that hedging isn't free (it's actually very expensive nowdays given the current climate).
 
n844aa
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RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 7:03 am

L-188, maybe you should learn from Rod Paige's mistakes, and not use the term terrorist when it's grossly inappropriate. Are there genuine environmental terrorists out there? Yes. But opposing drilling in ANWR does not one make.

It's an affront to the victims of terror for that label to use that term so casually. I'm not trying to start a political argument here, but let's not forget who the real terrorists are.
New airplanes, new employees, low fares, all touchy-feely ... all of them are losers. -Gordon Bethune
 
artsyman
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RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 7:05 am

You know, in 1995 a bill that would have opened the 1002 area of the North Slope of Alaska, was placed on Clinton's desk.
****

Oddly enough, at the moment the US government is responsible for the high fuel prices. They US government is buying up all available oil to refill the National Oil reserves. The airlines have been complaining that the government should fill the reserves when a) it is required and b) when prices are a little more stable than they are at the moment.

The government (for right or wrong) feels that they do not want to be vulnerable to no oil with the current climate, and are buying now, and thus keeping demand outstripping supply and keeping the prices elevated.

J
 
mia
Posts: 813
Joined: Mon Mar 01, 2004 1:40 am

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 7:38 am

artsy speaks sense. It is because of the National Reserve that OPEC decided to keep cutting production. As a matter of fact, OPEC has not cut production so this mustmean that the reserve is being replenished quicker. About the the alaska oil...why doesnt the government create its own oil extraction company like say PDVSA or PEMEX for the purpose of its oil reserves, etc. Once the government doest this it can go into Texas and drill all the oil they have there before they drill in pristine land. The Airline industrie does suffer from this but I hope oil companies realize they must sell cheaply because or else they will loose their customers in the long run (as in airlineswill go under).
"Like all great travelers, I have seen more than I remember, and remember more than I have seen."
 
L-188
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RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 7:48 am

Nationalized industries goes against what the US stands for MIA.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
InnocuousFox
Posts: 2556
Joined: Sat Dec 06, 2003 1:30 am

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 10:15 am

Actually, the Argentinean oil supply has been our biggest problem for the past year or so.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
DC10GUY
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RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 10:25 am

Don't blame the gas hog SUV's for the high price of gas. Don't it seem strange that we have record high oil prices with a Texas oil man president ??? I think gas is what he wants us to spend our tax cut money on.
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
IMissPiedmont
Posts: 6200
Joined: Wed May 23, 2001 12:58 pm

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 1:13 pm

Wow! The price of crude has now reached about 70% what it was 27 years ago.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
 
cloudy
Posts: 1613
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 3:23 pm

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 4:08 pm

The market can be somewhat speculative as well. About a year ago, the market was anticipating lower demand because the world economy (particularily in Asia) was not growing as much then as it is now. Also, it was anticipating a higher supply as Iraqi oil went back on the market - and this has taken longer than expected. Because the market's expectations have not been met, and because of the aforementioned filling of the US strategic reserves, the price of oil has been rising.

But my guess is that in the long term the price of oil will stabilize as new sources are brought on line in Russia, Africa, and Iraq. Because the percentage of oil comming from the middle east is gradually going down, OPEC's pricing power will probably decline also. As for drilling up in the Alaska wildlife refuge, I also think the purported environmental concerns are a bunch of BS. The people who oppose it oppose oil drilling just about anywhere, and have a hard time thinking rationally about environmental issues. However, more drilling in Alaska would probably not have a major long term impact on the world price of oil, and oil would probably not be much cheaper if this was done while Clinton was in office. For the US supply in an emergency(such as we had in the 70's) ANWAR oil would be very meaningful. But compared to the world supply, it is a drop in the bucket (or barrel, if you prefer  Smile ).
 
bobb
Posts: 241
Joined: Sun Jan 25, 2004 12:15 pm

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 4:52 pm

Yeah right, always blame it on Clinton.

So how come the Energy Department study says ANWAR oil would have little impact? uh uh.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/4542853/

Look at yourself and that Hummer first before blaming everyone else.
 
L-188
Posts: 29881
Joined: Wed Jul 07, 1999 11:27 am

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Thu Mar 18, 2004 5:04 pm

Bobb you really need to use better sources then the My Socialist News Broadcasting Company.

The article you quote gives a projected 876,000 barrel a day production from the 1002 area. And the timeline mentioned is inline with the 10 year timeline I mentioned.

Compare that with Prudhoe which currently is producing 450,000 to 500,000 barrels a day. And Alpine at 100,000 barrels a day.

Alpine btw was projected to only produce 80,000 barrels a day, however it has proved out better then first suspected. An expansion was announced by BP last month which, when the equipmnet to handle the expansion is installed should get the production up to 140-150,000 a day.

So to call a conservative 850,000 barrels out of ANWR is not insignificant, and the article would lead you to believe.

That is just evironmentalist crap.
OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
 
PVD757
Posts: 3030
Joined: Sun Aug 24, 2003 8:23 pm

RE: Barrel Of Oil Surges Past 38usd

Fri Mar 19, 2004 4:30 am

I 'd rather blame all the suckups in DC who have voted against increased fuel economy for automobiles and trucks. The consumer on an individual basis is killing business in this case. Excursions and all of the other hogs on the road have driven demand through the roof and the countries who have nothing else to offer the world commodity-wise are taking advantage of it. If you don't want the gas prices so high, then get congress off their butts and change it. By the way, you don't need to screw up the environment or "fund terrorism". There is adequate technology out there today to make a difference.

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