col
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Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 2:11 am

Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 2:56 am

I have read with some bewilderment the AvB postings on this site. Aircraft a v aircraft B etc etc. I thought I would look into the order situation, and some things are quite shocking, but the situation gets fogged by the family issue. For instance if you look at the aircraft individually (without family), and take the stance that anything with an order back log under 30 is in deep trouble, 50 risky, 75 so so, then you get the following:

Deep Trouble
A343 - 14
A345 - 14
736 - 16
739 - 16
757 - 10
762 - 4 (Tanker order should see safe)
763 - 21
772 - 9
772LR - 5
773 - 8

Risky
744 - 38 (14 pax and 24FR)

So So
A300 - 62
A318 - 70
A333 - 70
A346 - 56

People will probably come up with the arguments of family, doesn't matter etc, but I just thought it was interesting to see it in a simple form. Until the 7E7, Boeing could have a couple of lean years, and assembly shut downs.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:07 am

772 - 9
772LR - 5
773 - 8


I disagree with "Deep Trouble." 2003 was not a great year for the 777, but in about a decade Boeing has sold 630 Triple-7s, the line is not in trouble.

736 - 16
739 - 16


These two models are part of the 737NG line. So long as the 737-700 and -800 sell, these models can be offered even if there is zero backlog.

A345 - 14

Like the 777-200LR, the A340-500 is a niche aircraft, it will never sell in huge numbers.

A333 - 70
A346 - 56


For a wide-body aircraft, that isn't a bad backlog. Large aircraft never sell as quickly as small aircraft. But since the A330/A340 are built on the same production line, Airbus really has 154 orders for the A330/A340 family

Until the 7E7, Boeing could have a couple of lean years, and assembly shut downs.

Maybe yes maybe no, we'll just have to wait and see. If the 7E7 enters service in 2008, production will begin between 2005-2006, which isn't terribly far away.
 
col
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Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 2:11 am

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:12 am

Dfwrevolution,

You are right with your reply, but I made the point that the list did not use the family. The headings are really a little irrelevant (poor order qty, not so good order qty, or anything could have been used), as the family masks the numbers. It is only when you break it down it makes it interesting, that within the family there are the under achievers.

Col
 
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scbriml
Posts: 13703
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:14 am

Col, Interesting list, but I think you've already answered your own question. Family certainly mitigates most of the a/c in your list.

On the 737 line, family is probably less of an issue than it is for Airbus on the A32x, because the A32x family is split over different production lines (not all lines producing all models)

Certainly for the A33x/A34x line family is a saving grace - you just churn out whatever model you need to.

Ditto for Boeing with the 767 (although big trouble if the Tanker deal goes tits up) and 777 line.

Obviously, both the A345 and the 777LR are niche a/c, so they won't likely ever have a big backlog, compared with other models.

The line has already been drawn in the sand for the B757.

The A300 is interesting, because it looks like UPS want to defer/canx some/all their outstanding A300Fs. Not sure who else has outstanding A300 orders.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
Scorpio
Posts: 4806
Joined: Thu Oct 04, 2001 3:48 am

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:16 am

But since the A330/A340 are built on the same production line, Airbus really has 154 orders for the A330/A340 family

You forgot to include the A330-200. Total backlog for the A330/340 family is 266 planes.

Scbriml,

Air Hong Kong has firm orders for 6 A300-600F, they're the only other customer with the plane on order.

[Edited 2004-03-19 19:18:44]
 
col
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RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:19 am

Scbriml,

Can you use the expression "tits up", with some of the children on this site?

Col
 
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Starlionblue
Posts: 17212
Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:35 am

Unrelated, but if they have this much access to the Internet, I'm sure that they can find much worse if they want to.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
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scbriml
Posts: 13703
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:41 am

Col, Sorry no offence intended - a little colloquialism there. However, the children that can read this forum can also access the non-av, where they'll find much worse.
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
There are 10 types of people in the World - those that understand binary and those that don't.
 
phollingsworth
Posts: 635
Joined: Sat Mar 06, 2004 6:05 am

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 3:58 am

The lines that are most in trouble are the lines that don't have other models that are strong sellers. That would be things like the 717, 757, and soon the 767. The 737-6/900s can sell a very limited number and it won't hurt Boeing significantly, all of the development has been done and they cost virtually nothing extra to offer. One sale a year could keep those models alive as long as 737-7/800s are being scooped up by the lot. Also airlines that might order those smaller jets may not due to crew costs, i.e. Delta, who will only buy planes <70 seats and >150 seats (Except they aren't buying anything right now).
 
AIR757200
Posts: 1466
Joined: Mon Jul 17, 2000 8:30 am

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 4:01 am

757 - 10

First of all, the 757 production is coming to an end anyway, the aircraft has fulfilled its market intentions with over 1,000 units. So calling "deep trouble" is irrelevant.

 
col
Posts: 1695
Joined: Thu Nov 27, 2003 2:11 am

RE: Airbu/Boeing Back Logs

Sat Mar 20, 2004 4:50 am

Before everyone gets really deep on this, it was just an interesting view on some family members and situation on some of the other lines. Headings were a little over the top, so apologies will work out something better next time. Also learnt new expression when things go wrong, will use it in future, nobody will know what it means over here except for me!!!

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