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Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Tue Mar 30, 2004 12:58 pm

A lot of people have been saying that around 2020+ the world will have reached its max oil production cababilities. If this were to be the case, how would aviation as a whole survive? What other types of fuels can be used? How do you think this problem should be addressed and solved?
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RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:13 pm

Aviation (and many other industries) are going to be very dependent on the oil industry finding new technologies to pull oil out of "depleted" wells and make other fields economically feasible to work. I think that there will still be a lot of oil in the ground and feel that it can be recovered. There will also be an issue of environmental concerns and a lot of work to find compromises that "both sides" consider reasonable.

In terms of the impact on aviation in particular - I don't think 25 years is a short enough time for significant high speed rail programs to be put in place to a point where they will have a major impact world wide. I do think that improved fuel efficiencies will be critical and that the 7E7 is a significant step in that direction. By that time both A & B will have major programs and the old gas guzzlers will not be financially viable.

PS. In 2030 there will still be A vs B arguments on this board . . .

RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:19 pm

Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Will be a mass of A380's
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RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:22 pm

Much more significant that the 7E7 (which is only going to have 15% efficiency improvement by 2008) is legislation that will increase CAFE standards to where they should be at. There is a an incredible amount of energy that is wasted --

Two interesting books to read are -- "Out of Gas: The End of the Age of Oil", by David Goodstein and "The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the World-Wide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth" by Jeremy Rifkin.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
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RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Tue Mar 30, 2004 1:27 pm

Northwest will still operate DC-9's, but with fuel cells  Big thumbs up
And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
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RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Wed Mar 31, 2004 10:39 pm

I hope many airliners got solarpanel on their back for electricity used onboard,
also hope that they get water from the aircondition powered by electricity.
Tupolevs LNG planes seem nice, but I don´t the major players are interested in
this technology...

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RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Thu Apr 01, 2004 2:14 am

I think that aircraft manufacturers are doing research on how to use liquid hydrogen on future aircraft. Liquid hydrogen could be a nice replacement for fuel, but of course you won't see that happen before 2020.

Ben Soriano
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RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Thu Apr 01, 2004 2:26 am

If crude oil is run out, the whole civilization is affected very much. Nowadays, many products are come from crude oil. Polymers are from crude oil. The paint is also from crude oil! Lubricant is also the same problem. At the same time, the matels are also nearly ran out. So using liquified hydrogen, fuel cells, vegetable oils, electricity, solar cells cannot solve the problem. The problem is what materials should we use to build aircraft? Let us using hot ballon again! Takes several month to travel. It seems interesting.  Nuts
Finally, I hope the scientist is under estimate the amount of natural resources under the ground
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RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Thu Apr 01, 2004 6:04 pm

2025 is too far ahead, the airlines are not thinking that far ahead and they never do so we dont know whats really going to happen. Hell, I dont even think THAT far head. I didnt know 2025 even existed yet or if it ever will! LOL  Big thumbs up
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.

RE: Aviation Industry In Say 2025-2030

Thu Apr 01, 2004 6:12 pm

If oil production falls as much as is predicted in the next 50-75 years, we'll have more to worry about than what the airlines are doing. Interestingly though, if all the 767's were to be replaced by 7E7's, the annual fuel savings would be around 18 "Billion" Gallons of fuel per year based on fleet size, utilization and fuel burn savings.

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