sobelair
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JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 4:16 pm



Hi!

here's the link to the article (in Serbian though only)
http://www.politika.co.yu/cyr/tekst.asp-t=3553&r=60.htm

Anyway, JAT's new managing director announced the airline plans to purchase new aircraft by the end of this year. The criteria would be the experience and affiliation with the manufacturer type, in JAT's case the most likely winner would be Boeing. Apparently, JAT employees also expressed desire to continue with Boeing.

JAT needs immediately new fleet, since the average age of its aircraft is 21 years! Incredible. I didn't know its that old.

The problem poses the agreement reached with Airbus in 1998, to whose account 23 million $ have already been paid.

What do you think what kind of Boeing aircraft will JAT buy? And how will they manage to buy Boieng aircraft when the US has most recently cut off financial assistance to Serbia? Interesting.



 Smile/happy/getting dizzy

 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 5:56 pm

Difficult question. Short-range you'll find nothing else than the B737NG (-700/800) would be most likely. But I doubt that we'll see an order soon - not much chance that they will be able to finance it outright. More likely that they are going to lease a few birds from somewhere.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
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Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
VSGirl
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 5:59 pm

Would JAT even need a long haul fleet!?

Kimberly.
 
Udo
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 6:12 pm

Airmale,

how can you relate sanctions against Serbia to religion? There were strict political reasons for sanctions against Serbia. And btw, Serbia was once punished for killing innocent people, including many muslims. So please have a closer look on facts.
And as far as I know, there aren't any sanctions any more.

To return to the main topic: I don't think JAT is interested that much in ordering new long haul equipment. The long haul market out of Serbia is very limited, they will most likely order new aircraft for short and medium haul services.
And B777s would be to expensive anyways, plus too large. And I'm quite sure we will never see again a new customer for the B764. Not enough range and payload, and too large for JAT.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
sobelair
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 7:02 pm



If I were JAT, I would focus the order exclusively on lets say 737-600. I don't know how many aircraft they plan to order, will the add them to 737-300 or replace the entire current 737 fleet!? A bit confusing. But I think JAT needs a replacemnet for DC9. And 737-600 could be an excellent option for short hops into the region and also for West European services. It would be better to offer twice daily 737-600 flight rather than once per day with larger aircraft.

And eventually 737-800 for charters and high-density routes (London, Paris, Zurich). Simple as that. Though I would keep the 737-300 for a while for sure, no reason to dispose of it. Add as soon as possible five or so 737-600 and two or three 737-800 sometiem later once 737-400 leases expire, and there you go.

Nothing for the long haul. But for the regional flights? Oh my God, why don't they purchase CRJs or lets say five used AVROs?! Or Fokker 70?! Why do they need extra 100-seaters... I don't get it. Every airline is developing regional services, why not JAT!?
 
JGPH1A
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 8:28 pm

JAT and the Serbian Govt know very well which side their bread is buttered - they may WANT Boeings, but they'll probably buy Airbus.
Young and beautiful and thin and gorgeous AND BANNED ! Cya at airspaceonline.com, losers
 
greaser
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 8:29 pm

Solnabo, i'm never surprised by your anti-Boeing remarks
Now you're really flying
 
717fan
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 9:50 pm

Hey, don't forget the 717.....
 
sobelair
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:13 pm

Right!

I forgot about it completely. I think JAT would love to have 717 as a replacement for the DC9 fleet.  Wink/being sarcastic And I think it would be simply GREAT if that happens. I keep my fingers crossed. Meybe it would be even better that 737-600, or any other 737NG, who knows!? Lets wait and see.

I miss those DC9s flying around.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

 
Andreas
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:23 pm

Given their financial limits and limited markets...wouldn't it be better to go for used aircraft? Not too old, well maintained...should be available at knockout prices right now!
I know it's only VfB but I like it!
 
Horus
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:26 pm

VSgirl, even though I do agree with you that they don't really have a large long-haul market besides Australia and the US, I think the wide-body aircraft will be used for high capacity routes rather than long-haul routes. When they leased a DC-10 from Cubana, they used it on routes to the Mediterranean holiday resorts. They were a common visitor to the Red Sea resorts of Egypt, coming in a few times a week back then.


As for the short-haul replacement I think the 737NG is more likely than the A32X. As for the long-haul fleet, I think it will be more complicated. The 777 is too large and expensive, the A330 and A340 will result them in operating too many aircraft types in a small fleet, the 764 is very unlikely and the 7E7 is still years away and hasn't been formally launched yet.
EGYPT: A 7,000 Year Old Civilisation
 
Adria
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:31 pm

Airbus is most likely going to win the deal. If I am not mistaken they have some options on the A319?
 
sobelair
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 10:36 pm

Yep.

That's right. The contract was for 8 fixed orders for 319 plus 8 options on this aircraft type.
 
Horus
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Wed Apr 07, 2004 11:30 pm

Well I guess if that's the case, then the A332 is most likely gonna be ordered for the long-haul/wide body fleet.
EGYPT: A 7,000 Year Old Civilisation
 
duke
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Thu Apr 08, 2004 4:29 am

Drop it, UDO, you don't know much of what really happened in the former Yugoslavia, do you?
 
Alitalia7e7
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Thu Apr 08, 2004 3:52 pm

Horus, JAT Does not fly to Australia, perhaps only JFK in the USA but unsure. Prior to the war, JAT had a great Asian/Pacific and North American Network, it even had plans to go to South America. JAT has great potential and cannot wait till it gets back to the size and if not bigger like it used to be. But PLEASE bring back the old livery!
 
JU101
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 3:46 am

Hi Sobelair,

Thats a nice posting you gave. Unfortunately I was not able to read the article. Perhaps the link is outdated. In any event, I think the new director is just blowing some hot air. It is unlikely that the airline will purchase new aircraft anytime soon. Here is why:

The better side of the fleet consists of the following aircraft:
- 10 B-737-300s (YU-AND, ANF, ANH, ANI, ANJ, ANK, ANL, ANV, ANW, AON)
- 3 B-737-400s (YU-AOO, AOR, AOS)
- 4 ATR-72-200s (YU-ALN, ALO, ALP, ALR)

The average of the of the above fleet is somewhere around 17 years.

The older fleet consists of the following operational aircraft:
- 1 DC-10-30 (mainly leased abroad)
- 5 DC-9-30 (mainly leased abroad)
- 2 B-727-200 (leased abroad)

I am sure that when these older aircraft approach their next C-check, they will be scrapped. Out of these aircraft, only one or two DC-9s will be active on mainly domestic flights, while the rest will continue their lease abroad. These older planes are essentially making clean profit for the airline, and there will be no rush to get rid of them, as is the case with Northwest Airlines from the United States.

JAT have invested lots in their 737-300 fleet, and it would be pointless to sell them. Furthermore, the 737-400s will be around for at least the next three years, so there will be no replacement for them either. If it becomes necessary for more aircraft, they would readily lease additional 737s (such as the YU-AON, AOO, AOR, AOS). I anticipate JAT to not make mid-range aircraft purchases anytime soon, other than for deliveries destined for the later part of this decade. In that case, newer generation 737s would be favorable.

Nevertheless, reasons for ordering new Boeing aircraft:

- Ordering new 737s: Boeing would decide that Belgrade is the most favorable location for opening a sizeable Boeing service center, covering the entire Eastern and Southeast Europe 737 market.

- Ordering longhaul fleet: Boeing would probably lobby the U.S. Department of Transport, to allow JAT more favorable treatment. The new management in JAT are perhaps more willing to resume flights to more North American destinations than the one lead by Predrag Vujovic.

- The airline has a long-standing relationship with Boeing and U.S. companies.

- The U.S. and Serbian government are currently conducting a feasibility study regarding a significant expansion of Belgrade airport. The project is known as "Kapija Srbije".

- For political reasons, where the U.S. would be more supportive of the policy of Serbia towards the province of Kosovo and Metohia, drop the criticism in terms of cooperation with the Hague tribunal, would lobby the EU for speedy membership, and perhaps open the door to more investment opportunities.

Any comments?
 
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scbriml
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 5:34 am

But, as previously stated, JAT has a firm order for 8 A319 (plus options) on Airbus' books. Why would Airbus let them walk away from that for free?
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 5:44 am

But, as previously stated, JAT has a firm order for 8 A319 (plus options) on Airbus' books. Why would Airbus let them walk away from that for free?

That never stopped ANA, EasyJet, or Qantas from switching manufactures.

Regards,
DFW
 
Mark_D.
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 5:57 am

Duke -- Drop it, UDO, you don't know much of what really happened in the former Yugoslavia, do you ?

You drop it, Dukey, he may just know way the heck more 'n you do, about it  Smile


As for JAT's fleet plans -- with or without foreign politcs attached-- well the history sure leans towards Boeing, doesn't it. However personally I think they'd be better off long-term --including politics attached-- by going Airbus instead.


 
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scbriml
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 6:09 am

That never stopped ANA, EasyJet, or Qantas from switching manufactures.

Yes, that's true, but each of those examples is different from JAT.
ANA has decided to go all Boeing, even though they have 8 A320 still to be delivered from their order for 28 (when will they get their first 737?), and have publicly stated that the 737s will replace the A320s.
EasyJet will operate a mixed fleet for the foreseeable future. Have they actually said they will ditch the 737s in favour of Airbus? I don't think so. In fact, operating a dual fleet may actually pay them if they're in the market for more planes in a few years - both manufacturers will know they have a chance to win the order.
Qantas haven't switched manufacturers unless I'm very mistaken. They've ordered A320 for their LCC startup, and have just ordered additional 737s for their mainline operation.

All these are different situations from JAT's - they need new planes, and have planes (that will meet the requirement) on order from Airbus. Presumably, they would have to pay a significant penalty to cancel that order (which is not a situation any of the other airlines you mentioned were in).
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
Horus
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 6:45 am

Alitalia7e7, I know JAT don't serve OZ, I said that it was one of the destinations I think they could operate due to the large number of expats who live there
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dc863
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 1:19 pm

At least 2 767-300ERs should be ordered. They can be used to some of their former Far East destinations and to Canada and the US. 737-600s and -700s for North Africa and the Middle East. Perhaps the 717 for Europe with some 737-800s for the more dense London,Paris, Frankfurt ops.
 
behramjee
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 1:45 pm

JAT doesnt need an aircraft of the size of an A 343 nor a B 772ER. What JAT needs to replace the DC 10s of its fleet is the B 763ER which is their best option if u ask me.

As for the regional fleet...the best replacement would be concentrating it around the B 737-700 with winglets. And as for smaller density flights, the SAAB 200 is good enough with 50 seats and a decent range.

So in short :

DC 10s to be replaced by B 763ERs
B 737 Classics to be replaced by B 737-700s
SAAB 200s replacing any small aircraft of the 50 seater capacity that they might have.

Theyre plenty of B 763ERs in the market these days that can be leased in or bought out directly at a vvvv low price so JAT should take advantage of this ASAP. They should however order brand new B 737-700s and in the meantime continue to fly their B 733-734s for the next 2 years until the B 737NGs arrive.
 
sobelair
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Fri Apr 09, 2004 3:37 pm



Very nice.

For long haul 767-300ER. Lets say two.
Lets say 737-700 with winglets. For example ten.
And for the regional flights SAAB 2000. I might exaggerate, but lets put the number also at ten.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

I would eventually add to this perhaps few 717s?! For regional routes with higher demand as well as thiner European flights (Vienna, Milan, Rome).

The fleet would be awesome!!! And put back on the tails the old JAT's egg...!!!

No, its too good to be true.
 Wink/being sarcastic
 
Horus
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Sat Apr 10, 2004 3:18 am

The 763ERs seems like the best solution, but if the airline wants to renew the fleet with new aircraft, then I doubt they will go for such an old aircraft. They could lease a couple (as already suggested) and place an order for 2 7E7s. With a list price of $125 million, they are actually cheaper than ordering 763s.
EGYPT: A 7,000 Year Old Civilisation
 
JU101
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Sat Apr 10, 2004 4:09 am

Did I miss something?

The ATRs are barely 10 years old. Why even suggest buying new regional planes?
 
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solnabo
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RE: JAT To Renew Its Fleet; Boeing Main Candidate!

Sat Apr 10, 2004 4:17 am

Once againe: I love Boeing a/c, EXEPT 737 and I´m gonna speak my mind, even if I get thrown out! Childish, I know..
Mind you, there´s a bunch of Bus-bashers inhere too  Insane

Michael//SE
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