Thrust
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What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Fri Apr 23, 2004 11:45 pm

I have a horrible notion that the introduction of the A380 could literally knock the 744s out of the skies, and I did not just figure this out. Now look, this is not a Boeing vs. Airbus thread, but we cannot argue with the facts that the A380 is superior to the 744 in almost every way except maybe cruise speed. It is bigger, longer-ranged, has a much larger passenger capacity will probably be more fuel-efficient, and will feature advanced technology such as PTVs. I also assume they will have a glass cockpit as well as a fly-by wire system. How many airlines have installed PTVs in their 744s? Do you think that the A380 could mean the end of many current generation 747s? I love both Airbus and Boeing, and can't wait for the A380 to enter service, but I do not want to huge amounts of 744s disappear from the skies rapidly.
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noelg
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Fri Apr 23, 2004 11:49 pm

I don't think it's the end for the 744.

Boeing will just up the anti against Airbus with something else - they did it with the 737 when the A320 came out and there's no sign of that dissapearing any time soon  Sad

I think it will certainly be interesting to see how the A380 is received and how Boeing in particular will react when it begins service in a few years...


 
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Starlionblue
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Fri Apr 23, 2004 11:50 pm

The 744 and 388 compete, but not that closely. The capacity difference is quite large. Look at the 773 and 744, they compete in some ways but happily coexist.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
PanAm707320B
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Fri Apr 23, 2004 11:54 pm

Without a doubt it will have a massive impact on any future sales, although orders of pax variants have slowed to a trickle in the last couple of years anyway. Unless a new/updated version is introduced pax models will eventually get phased out over many years, but expect to see the freighter version around for much longer.
 
Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Fri Apr 23, 2004 11:55 pm

Well, then, Starlionblue, I guess we would expect the A340 and the A380 to coexist happily together as well. Can the A346 be considered a rival of the 747 as well? I would think so.
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Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 12:01 am

When/if the A380 becomes a freighter though, I would think the sale of 747 freighters will come to a complete halt. The A380 freighter obviously would have much more room for cargo space than the 747. Again, I do not have any more respect for Airbus than I do for Boeing. I hope the 747 and the A380 will coexist. The 747 is one of my favorite aircraft, the last thing I want is for it to disappear.
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beechnut
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 12:13 am

Nothing man-made is forever. The 747 is yesterday's aircraft. Yesterday's technology (with some freshening for today's realities on the 400 series).

There aren't too many 747 missions that cannot be done by aircraft in the 777 or A340 series, especially the A340-600 or 777-300ER. Either of the 777 or A340 are more modern, FBW, probably cheaper to operate.

I predict used aircraft values for the 747-400 will head south. The telling sign will be when the first 747-400 winds up with a new start-up LCC. Already there's a trend to convert passenger 744s to freighters.

The A380 will occupy the ultra-high capacity niche. The Triple 7 and the A330/340 series will occupy the higher capacity int'l flights. The 7E7 and A330-200 will fill in nicely in the point-to-point lower capacity int'l runs.

The only real 747 advantage I can see is right now is the combi version, basically an A340-300 or 777-200 in terms of pax capacity with room for a heck of a lot of main deck freight.

I think very soon the Boeing line-up will consist of different variants of the 737NG, 7E7 and 777. The 747, 767 and 717 will be history (the latter particularly sad for me, I'm a HUGE DC-9 fan!).
 
Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 12:23 am

I still think Boeing is going to try to do something with the 747 and 7E7 to answer to the A380. I wouldn't rule the 747 out yet. I have said it before, and I'll say it again, the answer to Airbus for Boeing lies within the 747 and more modern technology. I don't want to see Boeing just give up....that would make the competition way too boring, and no company easily admits defeat. I would like to see the Boeing and Airbus rivalry continue well into the future. It could lead to developments of aircraft much more superior to the ones we know today. The competition must go on!
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Starlionblue
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 12:50 am

There is no reason for Boeing to make a larger plane, especially since they believe that it will not pay off for Airbus anyway. Boeing are doing quite well with the 737 and 777. The 7E7 (may she fly well) will provide a perfect complement. If Boeing want to play in the A380 space, they have to put up serious $$$ for a payout they say is small at best.

Taking on the A380 head-on at this point would be silly. The potential buyers of a 747x have all gone to the A380 now.

If Boeing wants to do something to knock Airbus out of the water, they need to think radically different. BWB or Supersonic or something like that, but with good operating costs. But that would be a huge gamble.


Well, then, Starlionblue, I guess we would expect the A340 and the A380 to coexist happily together as well.

Of course. I mean there will be some cannibalization, but that's always the case.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 12:57 am

I never considered this, Starlionblue. It's actually a very good point that you make. No wonder Boeing isn't concerned then. But say the A380 is a success? I would think Boeing might want to reconsider.
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Starlionblue
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:04 am

I wouldn't say that Boeing isn't concerned. They still want to milk the 744ER for a while longer, but their focus is not there.

The sad fact of the A380 from a competition perspective is that the market is very very small in contrast to a huge investment. Compare that to the A320/B737. Large market, much smaller investment.

So if Boeing change their minds, as it were, they would have to come up with something which was truly revolutionary, something which would lower costs or speed up the flights in a big way. When the 707 came out, it could carry hundreds of times more pax than the QE2 ocean liner (in a given time) and they would pay 1/10th of the price. That's a revolution!

If Boeing can't come up with this killer plane, they will do much better concentrating on making a fantastic 7E7. When you think about it, the 7E7 serves more or less the same niche where Airbus is weakest.

As they teach you in the army: Don't strike where the enemy is strong. Strike where he is weak.
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:06 am

The A380 will be limited in use for many years as to the airports that can handle it, so the 747 will continue, albeit in fewer production numbers, to serve markets/airports where the A340/777 isn't large enough. There are also some countries that prefer B vs. A due to political/trade reasons. In the meantime, Boeing needs to come up with the updated 747-500 or NG as some refer to it here to remain competitive. Of course, the 777 has proven excellent for very long range flights and has cut into the demand for the 747-400's for pax use.
 
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solnabo
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:07 am

Thrust: "No B vs A"!

Who are you fooling? Puhleeeze.... Nuts

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Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:08 am

Supersonic jetliners definitely would prevail over size, there is no doubt about that. Were the Concorde to be reintroduced today with more efficient engines and a longer range, there is no doubt it would be an enormous success, and if the engines were fuel efficient enough, I can't argue with you in saying that the A380 would have a hard time outselling Boeing. That actually seems to be a better route to take than reclaiming it's throne as the company to produce the biggest monster aircraft.
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Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:13 am

Okay, maybe a little Boeing vs. Airbus  Big grin

But I'm not favoring one or the other. As I said before, I love both companies. And I'm looking forward to seeing the A380 enter service. I was just wondering about the A380's impact on the 747. I want to the see the A380 and the 747 in service together for a long time...I love the 747, and I don't want to see it disappear...is that a crime, Solnabo?
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:17 am

The big question here is: Can the 777 be stretched further? If you hang on a root wing plug like the A340-500/600, make it longer, hang more powerful engines on it, maybe add a center bogie for the weight, it becomes a one for one 744 replacement sizewise. Or you could even use the same wing for a 4 holer à la 330/340.

I'm not saying it's practical, just that this plane could be much more economical than a 744x. The 777 airframe is over 20 years younger and the wing 10 years younger than the 744. Simply a much better starting point than the 744.

"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
brons2
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:30 am

The 747 will continue on, slightly enlarged, in the 450 seat range. There are no other aircraft in the 400-450 seat range. The A380-700 will never be made because it will be too heavy. The 777 won't be able to be stretch appreciably again because of the difficulty in rotation of such a long airframe.

Airlines that bought the 747 at one time because it was the largest plane on the market will now buy the A380. However, the 747 will keep the 400 seat market.
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Starlionblue
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:52 am

I think Mr. Brons2 hit the nail on the head.

Unless Boeing comes out with something really new like the BWB or the Supersonic Cruiser.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
anthsaun
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:56 am

I see the 747s still flying over two decades. I'm pretty sure evolution will reach it sooner or later. But, what it really should the A380 introduction mean to Boeing is a huge challenge.

I've not seen an A380 fly yet. No one has. For sure it will fly. Then, certifications will come. I bet we will have a lot of discussions.

A380 for sure will display most of the B747F, but not the 747 at all. It seems like most airports are not working out to receive the A380 yet.

And as Starlionblue says, they will coexist. No doubt of it. One more thing; the time come when B747s and A380s will be history. An honorable history. But, that's still faraway.
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AZA330
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:15 am

According to me there are too many 747 around to see this plane disappear in a short time.
And I can't wait to see an A380 taking off, and I hope to fly it as soon as I can. Last Sunday on TV I watched a show about the Airbus and Boeing competition...Airbus built the A380 according to the philosophy that in the future there will be an heavy traffic between the major hubs in the world.
Boeing thinks that there will be more point to point connections, so we will not need a big aircraft, but a medium size aircraft, very fuel efficient and able to fly for a lot of miles.
So I think Boeing is not interested to build a plane like the A380 and in the future we will see only A380 instead of 747, but, again, this will happen in a long time.
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PSA53
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:38 am

I agree with a lot of opinion here
about the untested and market(flying
public)interest in the A380.

Boeing in the 1960's,betting everything on
747,proved there was a market for jumbo .I'm not
so sure about A380,that it might to big for
it's britches.While it could work in cargo,
the main focus of the flying public or even
attracting enough paying passengers to
support the aircraft,is a question mark.

I believe Boeing is playing the right hand.
It is in position to react fast with super 747,
or might be planning a supersonic jumbo.

I agree,talk money and speed in the right
terms to the airlines,the A380 is dead.





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mischadee
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:41 am

Bye bye Queen of the skies.

Mischa.
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kl911
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:42 am

It will mean that the 747 is DEAD. They cannot compete against the A380 with a 40+ year old plane.......

Sorry, but it will happen.... I love the 747, but I'm afraid that retirement is the only option left....
 
ORDagent
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:58 am

I refuse to get into a Boeing vs. Airbus rant. I have read that the 747 was a slow seller at first due to a turndown in the economy in the early '70's and that the airlines weren't quite sure what to do with them since they thought that the 747 would be turned into freighters as soon as the SSTs were coming on line. Will the same thing happen to the A380? Only time will tell. The build it and they will come philosophy worked for Boeing and I think it will work for Airbus. The major intra and trans Pacific routes are at capacity and FRA/US and LHR/US flights are growing by leaps and bounds. It sure is a gamble by Airbus. I hope it just isn't hubris on there part to show they are as big a player as Boeing (which is already proven).
 
NWA742
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 3:11 am

Bye bye Queen of the skies.

It will mean that the 747 is DEAD. They cannot compete against the A380 with a 40+ year old plane.......

Sorry, but it will happen.... I love the 747, but I'm afraid that retirement is the only option left....


Maybe if you two would quit having wet dreams about Airbus taking over the industry, you'd take a little more look into reality.

First of all, the 744 and A380 are in two very different classes of aircraft. They don't directly compete, you should know that. Airlines could only logically replace a 744 with an A380 on very very few routes.

Now we move on to the very old and commonly shot down argument about "30/40 year old designs competing with new Airbus".

The 744 is NOT a 40 year old airplane, nor is the 747-100 for that matter. The 744 is still a modern aircraft, and it sure as hell operates like one. You guys like to say this about the 737 and A320 as well, and you always fail to remember that the 737NG program is actually a newer one than the A320. So, if Boeing's gonna be replacing the 737 by 2015, that means Airbus needs to be doing the same thing to keep up. It doesn't mean the 737 is more outdated.

Don't shoot down Boeing just for using basically the same fuselage. There was no point to spend billions more to drop the 737 and 747 and make new replacements for them, whenever all they had to do was redesign them with modern technology. That obviously worked perfectly, since, according to you, these "old designs" can do the job, and all aspects of it, just as good if not better than Airbus's newest designs.

A lot of people on here seem to forget that the 747 is still a very capable and efficient aircraft, and airlines will continue to use them for a long time. 744s are enormous cash cows on heavy load routes. There is still not an aircraft in the same class as the 744. The 773 and A346 don't have quite the capacity, and could only do 744 operations with restrictions.


Sorry to disappoint you two, but the 747 is not going anywhere for a very long time. In fact, all of us in our age right now will probably not live to see the last flight of the 747.




-NWA742
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 3:18 am

The A380 does not realy mean that much to the 747.... the A380 is a completely different class of aircraft with over 100 additional seats over the 400. The two aircraft can compliment each other defintely. There is no real competetition for the 744 these days, and no real competition for the A380 either. The A346 more closely competes against the 742.
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PH-TVH
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 3:28 am

I hope the A380 will not find any costumers!
744 is still king of the sky and will remain on that position for a long time (so I hope.....)
 
mischadee
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:00 am

NWA742

I didn't mean that the A380 would replace the 747. In my opinion the 747 IS old. And it had it's glory day.

And I am not a totally airbus lover. I like the 777 very much but I don't have much experience with the aircraft since I only fly SAS and Lufthansa. But if the A380 will not compete with the 747, which aircraft is the 747 competing against? The 777? Maybe Boeing is replacing their own aircraft with a much more modern and economical aircraft i.e the 777?

I still think that the 747 is on it's way out, simply because it is an out dated machine. But hey I can't predict the future. No hard feelings.

Mischa.
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benyhone
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:00 am

Most of you above are really forgetting that most airports won't be able to handle the A380 without serious upgrades to taxiways and aisle clearances. It's probably only going to serve a handful of airports to begin with, and only time will tell if other airports will be convinced to expand their facilities based on only one aircraft type. Remember what economy we live in now when you go comparing what airports did in the past (for the 707, 747, etc).

Terry/PHX
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NWA742
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:11 am

if the A380 will not compete with the 747, which aircraft is the 747 competing against?

As I and others have clearly pointed out before, the 744 is not directly competing against anything, it never has.

It will be the same with the A380.

it is an out dated machine

How is it out-dated? The 744 does the job efficiently and reliably by even today's standards, and it's very modern.

Would you call a 3.0 GHz processor out-dated because they used to be making ones a 100 times slower?




-NWA742
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gigneil
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:14 am

Now look, this is not a Boeing vs. Airbus thread, but we cannot argue with the facts that the A380 is superior to the 744 in almost every way except maybe cruise speed.

With a 0.86 cruise velocity, the 388 will be faster.

The 744's orders have dried up. It competed itself right out of the market, no need for the 388's help.

N
 
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:16 am

I think the A346 and and the 773ER are really wiping the 744 out. Those things have around 15% better efficientcy and a almost the same size.The 744's (pax version) has been slowly dying over the last few years and the A380 is merely the final blow.The 747's situation is suprisingly similar to the 757's a few years ago. It was forced from below by the 739 and the A321, the 773ER and the A346 in the 744's case and is being pushed from above by the 7E7 or A380. I honestly think the last 744 pax order has been executed.


Looking to the future I think that Boeing should build a 747adv. A slightly longer version (3m longer) so it does not clash with the 773ER's size. I think people have hastily jumped to the conclusion that as the A387 idea is a shrunk model it is going to be hideously overweight and a bad performer. People should stop and think what other A/C Airbus have shrunk. The A318 A319 A310 A332 have all maintained excellent performance compared to there Baseline A/C, especially the A319 and A332, so why should the A387 an exception. I think it would benefit Boeing to combat this.

One problem I can see with the 747 is that you cannot really extend the A/C too much longer as it will not be compatible with airports. This make me think that if Boeing want to tackle the UL aircraft market - which they are inevitably going to have to do eventually - they are going to have to design a new airframe which will offer a wider X-section. But as designing a brand new plane is very costly i think the 747adv is the best solution for the next 20 odd years.

From a spotting point of view I hope Boeing do build a new 747 as I do love to see that plane at the airport, it really is good looking. I also look forward to see the A380 right beside it.
 
aerosol
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:29 am

Concerning future sales as a pax aircraft, i do not see a bright future for the 744. The effect can already be recognised in terms of orders. I still see a bright future for the 744 as a freighter because of its nose loading capabilities which are unique to the 744 (excluding Antonow planes which do not play a mayor role).
For me the 744 remains the most beatiful aircraft ever built. I only have good memories about it. It alwys brought me safely where I wanted to go. Even in the future I will have that certain feeling when I see that familiar shape at the gate!!!!
 
Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:37 am

Thanks for the info about the cruise speed, Gigneil. Appreciate it. So the Airbus A380 has totally outclassed the 747 in every way except for the fact that far fewer airports can handle the A380 than the many that can handle the 747.
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:40 am

BTW, what engines will the A380 use? It has been officially announced, right? Will it be PW, GE, and RR as options, or just two of these, or one of these? Thank you.

Regards,
Thrust

[Edited 2004-04-23 21:47:19]
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Thrust
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:51 am

Well, I found one of the engine manufacturers that will be on the A380, Rolls Royce. Are any others known yet? BTW, which airline will receive the prototype A380, or the first one built (and that one is currently being built)
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gigneil
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:53 am

The two engine options will be the RR Trent 900 and the GE/Pratt GP7200. They were announced in 1999 or 2000.

N
 
FLYtoEGCC
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:56 am

Thrust
A380 will use Rolls-Royce Trent 900 or GE/PW Alliance GP7200. So far, orders have been split roughly half and half.

Sorry if this is a double post, I've a feeling someone may have replied by the time I click "post message"!!

EDIT: Heheheh thought so Big grin

[Edited 2004-04-23 21:57:14]
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AvObserver
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 6:07 am

The A388 will be faster than the 744 but the proposed Advanced model will equal it. http://www.boeing.com/commercial/747family/back/back9.html

Projected economics improvement for the Advanced over the 744 was stated at around 13% overall in a recent FI article. The gains come from the higher capacity, aerodynamic refinements and mostly, the more efficient 7E7 engines. If Boeing can keep the price reasonable, the Advanced may gain significant orders though I think it'll be a smaller niche than the A388's. The 744 may continue as a freighter only. The A380 doesn't entirely obsolete the 747 if the Advanced model launches and I suspect demand for a 747 Adv. freighter might be robust in coming years. Roberta, the reason many of us don't think the A387 stands a good chance for launch is its' extremely high MTOW compared to the only slightly less capacious 747 Adv. (450 passengers compared to the A387's 481). I've seen MTOW weight quotes for the different 747 models ranging from below 950,000 lb. for the passenger model to between 960,000 to 987,000 lb. for the larger freighter. Compare that with the staggering figure for the A387. "Max Takeoff (A380-700) 1,190,495 lb (540,000 kg)". That's an over 200,000 lb. difference, assuming the figures in this link are correct!

http://www.aerospaceweb.org/aircraft/jetliner/a380/index.shtml

Granted, it has 750 nm more range but I've got to think it would have an impossible task to match the 747 Adv.'s operating economics having to push all that extra weight. As I see it, the 747 Adv. should own the 400-500 pax niche market while, of course, the A388 and A389 rule the over 500 passenger class. Though the 747's design and systems are somewhat dated compared to the A380, performance and operating economics improvements for the Advanced should keep it viable for a couple more decades, anyway.
 
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 6:14 am

I think that the 747 production will die out. The A380 marks the end of the 747 But I would not put it passed Boeing to create a new type of aircraft to counter the A380 in the future.
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Horus
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 6:18 am

I think that the 747 production will die out. The A380 marks the end of the 747 But I would not put it passed Boeing to create a new type of aircraft to counter the A380 in the future.

I second that
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DIA
Posts: 3053
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 6:23 am

"As I see it, the 747 Adv. should own the 400-500 pax niche market while, of course, the A388 and A389 rule the over 500 passenger class."

Couldn't have said it better myself.


"So the Airbus A380 has totally outclassed the 747 in every way except for . . . ."

Not exactly. Apples and oranges in most respects here. Like said so many times before: the A380 will be a great a/c for its own segment. The 747 will still be great for what it is intended for as well. Is the A380 built on newer technology? In some respects yes. Is the latest 747 as well? Yes. She might look the same as the earlier versions, but she is a shell of her former self. . .literally. What you have said is like saying the 777 totally outclasses the 767. There are refinements, innovations, etc., yes. But a 777 is too much for most 767 segments and airlines. Thus, you have two a/c for two different jobs.
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BA Pilot
Posts: 31
Joined: Mon May 31, 1999 11:43 pm

RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 6:29 am

FACT;

BAA expect 1 in 8 Landings at LHR to be A380s with 10years time. Says it all.
A380 is the way to go and yes I believe the days of Boeing domination is dropping fast. Heathrow is building the stands for them now!

More airlines will dump their B744's and A340s for the A380's on long haul dense traffic routes.

I'm a huge Boeing fan ( I drive one) , but sadly it's over to Airbus.

 
greatansett
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Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 5:38 pm

RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 6:30 am

I 100% agree with you DIA, both aircraft have great technology but of course newer aircraft would have better technology. The 747 was designed for certain routes and with more people traveling more pax are needed.
Ron Paul 2012
 
Guest

RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 6:53 am

Roberta, the reason many of us don't think the A387 stands a good chance for launch is its' extremely high MTOW compared to the only slightly less capacious 747 Adv. (450 passengers compared to the A387's 481). I've seen MTOW weight quotes for the different 747 models ranging from below 950,000 lb. for the passenger model to between 960,000 to 987,000 lb. for the larger freighter. Compare that with the staggering figure for the A387. "Max Takeoff (A380-700) 1,190,495 lb (540,000 kg)". That's an over 200,000 lb. difference, assuming the figures in this link are correct!

wow that is a lot

still weights can be decieving

empty weights

772A = 139 tonnes
A333 = 122 tonnes
A332 = 120 tonnes
764 = 103 tonnes

The 772 holds up against the A333 well (although it is 1/8 bigger) the A332 has outsold the A333 even though it is only 2 tonnes lighter and 4m smaller. the 764 is much lighter than the A332 but has sold poorly, although this is probably due to timing and freight capacity.

PS thanks for those links avi observer  Smile

[Edited 2004-04-24 00:10:22]
 
brons2
Posts: 2462
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2001 1:02 pm

RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 7:06 am

I think that the 747 production will die out. The A380 marks the end of the 747

The only way this is going to happen is if Airbus' figures of the A380 being profitable at 58% load factor are actually true. Otherwise, it makes more sense to right-size the aircraft to the route, that is, fly the 416 (or 450 for the 747Adv) passenger aircraft on routes that require it and the 555 passenger aircraft on routes that require that.

http://www.airbus.com/product/a380_economics.asp

I refer you to my post in reply 16.
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Espion007
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 8:30 am

I belive that it will have a pretty hefty impact.Its already got 100+ orders,and well we have the media which loves this stuff.

the boeing 747 has been flying for the last 35 years-i think its time is now up.Now its the age of the A380.something like dinosaurs and mammals.

I just wonder what will replace the a380 30 years from now...

triple decker?
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United Airline
Posts: 8782
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 12:25 pm

What Boeing will do is....... Build a new B 747 Advanced with new B 7E7 systems and technologies and stretch the plane slightly. Then current B 747 operators like BA, CX, SQ, UA etc will definitely be interested.

BTW, no body cares if the exterior is 35 years old or even 100 years old. Its the technology that counts. The B 747-400 is a LOT more advanced than the B 747-100.

-Desmond
 
Thrust
Topic Author
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RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 12:41 pm

Well, I will say this--the 747 is much better looking than the A380. I'm sure the majority of you will agree with me.
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
mark777300
Posts: 377
Joined: Wed Apr 21, 2004 3:30 pm

RE: What Does The A380 Intro Mean For The 744?

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:14 pm

I find it odd that some think that the A380 will eliminate the 747 from existance. First off, I was under the impression that the A380 would seat over 100 more passengers than on a 744. In most of my books, the A380 is quoted to seat 555 pax in a three class layout as opposed to 416 pax in a three class layout on a 744. Granted this can all change depending on the airline, but the A380 seems to be a bit larger in size and capacity than the 744 to qualify them in the same category. My vision on this is that they both fall into a category of thier own, possessing their own niche market.

I won't disagree that the 747 is long in the tooth, but their is still quite a bit of space to improve on the 747 model from it's present status. I also disagree that the A380F will cause problems for the 744F, remember that the 744 has the upward hinged nose that allows cargo to be loaded from the front of the flight deck, especially items that may be somewhat oversized. So far, the A380 freighter model illustrates itself as having only side cargo doors which will be useful for package carriers such as FED EX and UPS but not Lufthansa cargo, NCA, etc.....who at times ship oversized loads on their aircrafts. But then again, Lufthansa cargo is now becoming an all MD-11F operator with side-cargo doors, so maybe it will have some effect on 744F sales, but not eliminate it from existance.

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