sq452
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10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:22 pm

Ok, I know this is probably inevitable, but I don't want to start a Boeing vs. Airbus debate about who's going to be ahead of the other, who's better, etc.

What I merely want to hear is where everyone thinks these two companies will realistically be in 10 years time (financially, product wise, etc.). This is simply from a company analysis perspective.

I think Boeing will have tough going in 10 years time, losing significant amounts of money, and will probably have a "double decker" entering service or in development. Financially, the company will be in ruins I think

Airbus on the other hand I think will be accelerating full speed ahead, continuing to improve on existing family lines. I think they will get less and less orders for the A380 as the years go on but the aircraft will have boosted revenue for the conglomerate...

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VirginFlyer
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:45 pm

SQ452 - Don't forget that Boeing's big money spinning these days is no longer commercial aircraft production, but rather defence-related stuff. You should probably factor that in before predicting financial ruin...

V/F
"So powerful is the light of unity that it can illuminate the whole earth." - Bahá'u'lláh
 
sq452
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:52 pm

well their defense sales have been FAR behind LM's, for instance the JSF aircraft contract was a big missed opportunity for them.

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DfwRevolution
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbu

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:54 pm

I think Boeing will have tough going in 10 years time, losing significant amounts of money, and will probably have a "double decker" entering service or in development.

If Boeing sticks to its current timetable, the 7E7-800 would have entered service two years before, and the 7E7-900 would just be entering serivce. The 737-R would most likely be underway, and a 747 Adv could be possible around this time as well. Other than a 747 update, Boeing has absolutely no intention of building a new double decker.

The A320/737NG match-up will remain unchanged through this decade, both lines will continue to draw orders.

The 777 is still very modern, and will only begin to reach the mature end of its product cycle in 2010. It too will attract further orders, maybe break the 1000 mark

The 7E7 will begin replacing a huge range of aircraft (A300, A310, A330, 767, 757) as well as growth in long-haul point2point and shorthaul. This is a serious offensive move by Boeing.



[Edited 2004-04-24 06:58:31]
 
sq452
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 1:57 pm

good point, this is all pure optimism though, who really knows what they will be doing in 10 years time. Just some educated guessing!  Nuts
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AirframeAS
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:01 pm

Maybe Norton Aircraft will emerge from LGB and launch the N22?? LOL! I just had to say that since I finished reading the novel 'Airframe' by Michael Critchton. (I know I spelled his last name wrong....)
A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
 
rjpieces
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbu

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:03 pm

Speaking about commercial aircraft alone:
Boeing will hopefully be selling a 747 Advanced, the 7E7 program should be well underway (with a 737 Replacement based on 7E7 technology in the works), and the 777 program will probably be nearing it's end sadly!
Airbus..It all depends on how they respond to the 7E7. If they build a new aircraft family, that family will take them into the next 10, 20 years serving as a model for a 32X replacement. If they just modify the 330 for now, they will have to build a new aircraft family later on. Either way, Airbus will have an A32X replacement down the line (maybe a bit longer than 10 years). I personally don't expect the 380 to do amazingly well, but it will definitly sell.

So basically, I don't think one manufacturer is going to defeat the other. When there were three manufacturers in the market, it was easy for Boeing to keep it's lead. Now both will remain close to each other....
"Millions long for immortality who do not know what to do with themselves on a rainy Sunday afternoon"
 
sq452
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 2:07 pm

OH I LOVE AIRFRAME, great book!!!!!  Nuts
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solnabo
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:12 pm

Boeing building those "flying toiletseats", dont know the name (Dark Star?) for the military.
Guess they will be a hit at Everett  Big grin

Michael//SE
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Phaeton
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 4:57 pm

AirframeAS,

Crichton is the correct spelling. Did you actually name yourself after the book?

Thomas
"History will be kind to me for I intend to write it.", Winston Churchill
 
L.1011
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sat Apr 24, 2004 11:25 pm

Boeing will be sitting on fantastic 7E7 sales. The 747 Advanced will just be launching, with about 100 orders. The 737 Replacement will be well underway and a 777NG will be in the works too. Financially the company will be experiencing flat revenue growth until those two new products come out, profits will be good.

Airbus will be in a rather precarious position because of timing. They will have to at least NG the A320 and build a 330-340 replacement to counter Boeing's devastating 7E7-777NG matchup. The A380 will NOT be anchoring the company. It will sell about 150-200 and Airbus will be stuck. This will be a time when EADS is banking on ITS defense business, like Boeing partially is now. Now after this, both companies will be competing with eachother again, playing the same cat and mouse that they have been. Boeing will have a significant lead with an earlier intro for the widebodies. Narrowbodies is a matter of who can get a plane launched first.
 
AirframeAS
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RE: 10 Years From Now, Where Will Boeing And Airbus Be

Sun Apr 25, 2004 6:03 pm

Phaeton~

Thanks for the spelling although I was close. As for my screen name, No, I didnt name myself after the book. Ive had this name 'Airframe' since 1998 when I was a chatter on MSN City Chats chatroom (Mainly in ChatSeattle). I never go there anymore because it is now a pay-to-chat site. I just didnt want to pay to watch drama. So anyway, I added the 'AS' when I joined this forum a few months ago. I originally chose 'Airframe' because I was going to A&P school and almost finished getting my airframe requirements done, but didnt. And I was working for AS at the same time. I know this is off the subject, but just responding to a A.nutter, thats all!  Big thumbs up
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