klwright69
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Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2000 4:22 am

What Do You Think Will Happen In This Industry?

Wed May 19, 2004 12:21 pm

I don't think we've had a good new round of predictions....give your predictions here! What will happen over the next 5 years in the U.S. airline industry? Think about it! The industry is at a turning point! Low cost players on the move......Legacy carriers struggling, but some more than others.......

Will USAir be gone totally? Will they morph into something else and survive a' la' Continental? Will UA make another play for US?

Will another legacy carrier go chapter 11?

I predict UA will successfully reorganize. I haven't heard anyone seriously thinking UA will go chapter 7...... But what will they be like? Will TED be huge or gone? Will they get the ATSB loan they have fought so hard for??

Will Song be around?

Will CO ever open a new hub? Will anyone else for that matter? Will UA ever get a foothold in the south?

Will a major hub vanish or be dramatically downsized? I know people were talking about CO's CLE hub, but my sense is that is not in the cards now.

What will JetBlue do?

And of course, will Southwest ever return to DEN, or go to COS? I know the claim never, but I think they will eventually come to Colorado. It is just a matter of when!
 
wgw2707
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RE: What Do You Think Will Happen In This Industry?

Thu May 20, 2004 3:07 am

Will USAir be gone totally? Will they morph into something else and survive a' la' Continental? Will UA make another play for US?

United can't make another play for US Airways as they don't have the cash and even if they did they'd probably not be interested in taking on US Airways at present, as since the initial takeover talks in 2000 US Airways has fallen apart completely. US Airways may survive or it may dissappear, one thing to remember about that airline however is that it has never functioned well operationally. The merger of several assorted regionals into a big (but not coherent) national system did not make for any degree of efficiency and US Airways is notorious for poor timetable performance.

Will another legacy carrier go chapter 11?

Unfortunately, Delta might go to Chapter 11, although they might also be forced to enter into Chapter 7. That company is hugely disadvantaged by the excessive pilot salaries.

I predict UA will successfully reorganize. I haven't heard anyone seriously thinking UA will go chapter 7...... But what will they be like? Will TED be huge or gone? Will they get the ATSB loan they have fought so hard for??

Difficult to say really. United may actually be liquidated...I see no reason to suppose that their financial position is that solid. They've extended their emergence until the end of the year, and who knows, maybe they'll delay even more.

Will Song be around?

Probably not as it was a bad decision from the start. The cost structure is equal to that of DL mainline...it's just a poorly conceived attempt to compete with jetBlue by building an extremely "chic" airline. Like most of DL's recent turn around attempts, it's half-hearted and half-baked.

Will CO ever open a new hub? Will anyone else for that matter? Will UA ever get a foothold in the south?

Continental probably won't open a new hub any time soon, nor will United for that matter.

Will a major hub vanish or be dramatically downsized? I know people were talking about CO's CLE hub, but my sense is that is not in the cards now.

Due to ACA's megalomania United may be forced to close IAD, although I doubt that is something that anyone at United desires, as United has had a hub at IAD since taking over Capital Airways at the end of the 1950s and that has been one of UA's few strongholds on the East Coast. US Airways' hub at PIT will definitely close, as the Pittsburgh airport authorities seem to have come to the conclusion that they are more interested in having high landing fees than retaining a major hub with service to most of the country. That situation is really tragic for the citizens of Pittsburgh whose choices when it comes to non-stop air travel will now be seriously limited.

What will JetBlue do?

They'll need to correct certain aspects of their operation in order to ensure continuing profitability.

-WGW2707
 
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STT757
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RE: What Do You Think Will Happen In This Industry?

Thu May 20, 2004 8:57 am

The Big Six (AA, CO, DL, NWA, US, UAL) will be down to three or four Legacy carriers, a couple niche carriers (Alaska) and about 4 substantial LCCs.

Some of the legacy hubs will be gone, others taken over by LCCs.

CO, AA, NWA are the most likely legacy carriers to be healthy and operating, DL and UAL are the possibilities for the fourth position.

IMO there will not be 5 (let alone 6) legacy carriers five years from now, also some of these LCCs will flop (Virgin).

The strong LCCs WN, B6, Airtran and perhaps HP or ATA will grow tremendously.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
N670UW
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RE: What Do You Think Will Happen In This Industry?

Thu May 20, 2004 9:51 am

US Airways' hub at PIT will definitely close, as the Pittsburgh airport authorities seem to have come to the conclusion that they are more interested in having high landing fees than retaining a major hub with service to most of the country. That situation is really tragic for the citizens of Pittsburgh whose choices when it comes to non-stop air travel will now be seriously limited.

Unfortunately, you're horribly misinformed on this issue. For one, the issue is not landing fees, but facility lease charges. US Airways made several demands, including reducing debt service by $500 million in a short period of time, and renovations to several facilities, including building regional jet jetbrigdes on Concourse A, and having the public pay for the cost of reservations, training, and maintenance facilities. The state and county submitted a counter-offer, which the airline rejected.

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/03096/172593.stm


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