DIA
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Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 12:25 am

In the latest Airways magazine. . .they have a large article about the E-170/175/190/195. They go on to show the E-195 in SWA colors saying that SWA is entertaining the idea of having the type in service. (I actually think that they have the picture labeled wrong. . .it looks like the E-190 to me.) Anyhow. . .(modern-day)SWA is not known to be anything but a 737 carrier. What do you think, will they actually operate the E-19X series a/c?

[Edited 2004-05-21 17:29:45]
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OPNLguy
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 12:41 am

SWA Execs have since stated that "they're a long way" from making any decisions on add new aircraft types to the fleet.

Ask me again in 5 years....  Big grin
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
quickmover
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 1:03 am

Does anyone know how the e-190/195 compares price wise to a 737 or 717?
 
UA744KSFO
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 1:06 am

No, they seem to be pretty content with the variations of the 737 that they have.
 
scottysair
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 1:07 am

I am not sure about them and it is more than of million dollars for their new airplanes.
 
geg2rap
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 1:12 am

If you look at WN over the years they always say they are looking at the latest fads ie now IFE E195/rj's in general...but they always seem to decide to stick with what works already....I personally would be very suprised but I would figure they would wait to see JetBlue's CASM on the plane or someone else's before the commit to the project
I compare WN to the catholic church.....they do change but sure does take a while...make sure they know what they are getting into.
plus if Boeing ever does give away the farm I assume it would be to WN...and if they want a 100 seater I am sure Boeing would love to keep the "All Boeing Fleet" sticker on WN's tugs
My 2 cents
 
Greg
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 2:57 am

According to WN themselves (their CEO), they investigated the cost and integration of regional jets (including the 190/195), and said 'no thank you' already.

This was in the last month.
 
gigneil
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Perhaps, But...

Sat May 22, 2004 4:35 am

Perhaps, but this month's Airways reiterates that WN is very carefully considering the 190/195.

N
 
elcapi1980
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 4:44 am

I hope they can make the deals with the new emb 190 ....
the price is about 10 or more millions less than the 737, and can carry up to 110pax which is almost the capacity that needs swa....but like always, they are the ones who dacides what is better for the airline.
I love you barranquilla!!!!!
 
DeltaMD11
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 4:45 am

Perhaps,
But does the article quote any agent of Southwest Airlines or Embraer stating that WN is considering the 190/195? Like anything, if you purport facts like that in a magazine they should be easily sourced.
Too often we ... enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought. - John Fitzgerald Kennedy
 
kwbl
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 4:50 am

I would be surprised if WN goes for the 190. The purpose (as I see it FWIW) of the regional jets are to get people from small cities to the bigger cities and connect them on to somewhere else OR to connect medium to large cities where traffic is thin. In the latter example, WN can do this pretty well with their cost structure and current fleet so there would be no advantage to the 190. WN is a point-to-point carrier so they are not looking to feed pax into large hubs and connect them to other WN flights, at least in the sense that the hub-n-spoke carriers do.
 
Greg
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 5:14 am

Gig...the magazine blurbs was written before they confirmed there was no immediate or medium term interest. In fact, a recent article had WN wishing good luck to JetBlue with theirs (tongue in cheek).

Ther overall right in seat cost would wreak havoc on their profit margins.

WN is strongly influenced by it's shareholders--and they are not convinced that anything smaller than the 73G is necessary.

It's not a condemnation of the EMB's...just WN's philosophy on simplicity.

Herb is still consulting for WN..and he opposes the idea very vocally.
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 5:29 am

>>>Herb is still consulting for WN..

Herb is doing more than consulting--he's still Chairman of the Board. Everyone thinks Herb completely retired and went "poof" a couple of years back, but he actually turned over 2 of his 3 titles (to Jim Parker and Colleen Barrett). Herb is still with us (and we're glad he is)...

http://www.southwest.com/investor_relations/fs_corporate_governance.html

Back to the E190 bit, even though the latest and greatest issue of "Airways" published what they did, it's stale news, given the fact that things have changed since they sent the "current" issue to the printers. Such is the nature of a periodical, especially so when it's a bi-monthly one.

Now, for a -TRUE- mystery, look at page 77 of the same Airways magazine and speculate how the wheelchair with the Southwest Airlines logo ended up in Taipei... (Really...)  Big grin

[Edited 2004-05-21 22:34:24]
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
DIA
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 5:32 am

"Such is the nature of a periodical, especially so when it's a bi-monthly one."

I think "Airliners" is the bi-monthly mag. "Airways" is monthly.
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CougarAviator
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 5:34 am

I'd love to see Southwest purchase aircarft such as these. Maybe that would be equivalent to feeder, for SWA.
Failure is not an option.....
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 5:37 am

>>>I think "Airliners" is the bi-monthly mag. "Airways" is monthly.

I get them mixed up all the time...  Big grin We should be thankful the neither are quarterly or semi-annually, or else we'd never learn any "current" news...  Big grin
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
DIA
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 5:42 am

"We should be thankful the neither are quarterly or semi-annually, or else we'd never learn any "current" news..."

I remember when Airliners was quarterly. This was before Airways came along at all. I must have read each issue 5x!
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RayChuang
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 6:10 am

If Southwest wants a plane smaller than the 737-300/700 series, one thing they could definitely do is push for Boeing to build a lighter weight version of the 737-600. If Boeing is willing to do this Boeing could be rewarded with as many as 45-50 planes ordered, which may make the project worthwhile.

WN could buy the Embraer 190/195 series, but the plane would likely be limited to routes where maintanence is easily done.
 
ScottB
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 6:20 am

I think Southwest is quite content to sit back and wait to see how the Embraer 190 works out at jetBlue. I'd guess that the 195 is unlikely given that it would require a third flight attendant in an all-coach configuration, so the savings in flight crew cost versus the 737 would be minimal.

You have to look at all the potential advantages and disadvantages associated with a hypothetical Embraer 190 in WN's fleet; lower acquisition costs and per-trip flight crew costs are balanced by higher training costs when pilots upgrade from the 190 to the 737, higher maintenance costs from having to train mechanics and stock parts for both, and potentially foregone revenue for flights where the company could have profitably sold more than 100 seats.

One crucial fact to remember is that the Embraer 190 is far more crucial to jetBlue's expansion potential because they chose to use the A320 rather than the A319 (which is comparable in size to the 737-700). jetBlue breaks even on average at about 73% of seats filled on a 156-seat A320 -- this works out to 114 seats per flight. Southwest breaks even (on average again) at about 62% of seats filled on a 73G -- or about 85 seats per flight. They can be nicely profitable (with margins over 10%) filling less than 100 seats. Granted, that's a bit of an oversimplification given that some flights are chronically empty while others are full 365 days a year, but the take-home message is that a smaller fleet type is far more critical for B6 given how large its basic fleet type is.

And, so far, the Embraer 190 is unproven, so there's nothing to be lost by letting someone else iron out all the bugs first. If it looks like the type is going to be a winner AND Southwest starts to run out of profitable expansion opportunities with the 73G's, maybe they'll consider it again. By jetBlue's own estimates, the CASM of the 190 is unlikely to be better than WN's 73G CASM.
 
OPNLguy
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 6:27 am

>>>If Southwest wants a plane smaller than the 737-300/700 series, one thing they could definitely do is push for Boeing to build a lighter weight version of the 737-600.


I agree. If SWA really wants (someday) a 100-seater, it has to be noted that a 122-seat 737-600 minus 3 rows of 6 seats equals a 103-seater, so theoretically, Boeing could take out a fuselage plug or two and downsize the 737-600 in the same fashion that Airbus did with the A318.

What would be interesting is how the cost of a theoretical 737-600 "Lite" would compare with the various RJs, and further, how much the commonality-driven savings associated with a 737-600 "Lite" would contribute to the equation.



[Edited 2004-05-21 23:35:22]
ALL views, opinions expressed are mine ONLY and are NOT representative of those shared by Southwest Airlines Co.
 
DIA
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 6:31 am

Could Boeing actually shrink the 736? What's the bottom line for the "too small to be safe" of the 73X design?
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flashmeister
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 10:36 am

If WN ever decided on another type, my bet is that they'd also insist on getting a mess of the new planes all at once. That causes a problem for the manufacturers, particularly Embraer with their darling new plane. If WN came knocking, would Embraer (or anyone else for that matter) be able to scramble slots together in a way that would satisfy WN?

I can't see WN getting a new type. I REALLY can't see WN getting a new type onesy-twosy over the course of many years.
 
IMissPiedmont
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 12:32 pm

And just why would Southwest buy an aircraft that could not fly any route on the system? The 737-700 can, and do so at a profit. Wn has no need for such a beast.

But, if such a purchase were to happen it would not be 20 or 30 aircraft over the next 5 years (as has been pointed out), it would be a few hundred.

My opinion and I've been wrong before a few times.
The day you stop learning is the day you should die.
 
swardu
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 12:39 pm

There was some scuttlebutt back in August where the CFO was quoted in numerous magazine articles and internet news articles where they were "INVESTIGATING" the distant possibility of looking into the ERJ190 for the small to medium markets....BUT.....and I really want to stress the BUT.....that is all that it was. It was nothing more than study, entertaining the thought, quieting the media...however you want to term it. There was also a proposal submitted along the same lines for use of an RJ to attempt to break the Wright Amendment, but as I heard it, it was dismissed as there was not a financial model available to compare ERJ usage vs. 737 usage...and going against the Wright Amendment would've been corporate suicide. I think any ideas of ERJ or CRJ usage for Southwest will be long in coming if ever.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 1:07 pm

Could Boeing actually shrink the 736? What's the bottom line for the "too small to be safe" of the 73X design?

The 737NG family has quite a bit of room left to grow. There's that 739X that could be built, there's that 738ERX that could be built, there's that 736-Lite that could be built.... this is one old dog with an endless bag of tricks.

But, if such a purchase were to happen it would not be 20 or 30 aircraft over the next 5 years (as has been pointed out), it would be a few hundred.

Which, IMO, is why Boeing would be all over WN offering the 717. Screw an NWA order, if WN committed to the 717 line you have a potential to sell hundreds of airframes. If WN were truly looking into the E190, Boeing wouldn't just sit and let them do so without making a fuss.

The regional jet theorem-
No fuss @ Boeing = no worry @ Boeing = no E190 @ WN

There was also a proposal submitted along the same lines for use of an RJ to attempt to break the Wright Amendment,

Considering how many thousands of people WN employes, the billions of dollars in revenue for the North Texas economy... it amazes the hell out of me that the WA is still in place. AA laying people off, WN hiring them... who deserves more opperational privilages? I shoulda made myself DalRevolution...
 
swardu
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sat May 22, 2004 1:35 pm

To me the Wright Amendment is a farse. But I did a study on the Wright Amendment, and it was put in place when WN got the authority to fly to New Orleans. Plus we were not suppose to be at Love Field. When DFW was built, the Bond Ordinance was concockted by Dallas and Ft Worth to shut down all commerical traffic to ALL area airports and DFW was to carry the entire commercial traffic load. Yet the Texas Aeronautical Commission went ahead and gave WN authority to fly out of Love Field anyway as we were to be only intrastate, not interstate. When we received authority from CAB/DOT, everyone in Dallas and Ft Worth went nuts saying the CAB was no longer a governing entity and the DOT had no jurisdiction, which is when Congressman Wright came into the picture thus the Wright Amendment and WN was allowed to stay at Love Field with the service area it prescribes (including the Shelby Amendment). Now my understanding is that you can operate out of Love Field with "Scheduled" service as long as you carry 56 seats or less with a max gross vehicle weight of 300,000 lbs or less. So in essence, a startup hypothetically could operate anywhere in the US or Hawaii with up to 757 service as long as they had a maximum of 56 seats and as long as you had the financially deep pockets to shell out $$$$ for legal fees to combat the City of Ft Worth, American Airlines, and the DFW Regulatory Commission for all the lawsuits they file with the DOT and the FAA. What makes some ineteresting reading, go to the DOT website and read all the proceedings about the Wright Amendment and startups who've tried and failed out of Love Field--Legend, Ozark, to name a few.
 
AGrayson514
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RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

Sun May 23, 2004 1:49 am

Does anyone know how the e-190/195 compares price wise to a 737 or 717?

Took me a while to find the Embraers, but here you go:

Aircraft List Price in $ Millions USD*

  • Boeing 717-200.........$35.5 - 39.5

  • Boeing 737-600.........$41.0 - 49.0

  • Boeing 737-700.........$47.0 - 55.0

  • Boeing 737-800.........$57.5 - 64.5

  • Embraer EMB-170.......$15.0 - 20.0

  • Embraer EMB-190.......$24.0 - 30.0

  • Embraer EMB-195.......$30.0 - 32.0**


  • *Price does not include discountsPrices not from Embraer but from Bussiness Weekly, as are all of the EMB prices as listed, all Boeing prices are from Boeing.com.
    **Provisional,


    ~Andrew Grayson

    [Edited 2004-05-22 18:54:14]
    Give a little bit...
     
    MD-90
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    RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

    Sun May 23, 2004 2:04 am

    I also think it's a farce.

    But Southwest Embraers sure would be interesting. Maybe Huntsville would finally get Southwest service instead of having to drive 90 miles up or down to Nashville and Birmingham.
     
    kcrwflyer
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    RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

    Sun May 23, 2004 2:14 am

    im not bashing here but.
    If Swa did order a plane seating 95 an dreached out to smaller markets, wouldnt that clash with their business plan? i know they like to keep planes mostly full, and can do so by flying them sun up to sun down to larger cities with low fares. Once again, not bashing, just asking.
     
    StearmanNut
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    RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

    Sun May 23, 2004 2:15 am

    Funny thing I noticed about Herb. He is the only WN person allowed to smoke on WN premises and the ramp. What is good for the Goose...
    If wishes were horses, a Tail Dragger I would fly...
     
    swardu
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    RE: Will SWA Order The E-195 As Suggested?

    Sun May 23, 2004 12:30 pm

    KcrwFlyer....

    As I understand it, adding the ERJ170 or 190 would clash with the business plan in place. It would bring our cost per seat mile up to around 0.10 due to increased training, mtce, crew, manpower, stock for parts, fuel, etc, etc, etc.
    I know it has been quoted in numerous articles that we're looking at it, but I think that was said in order to keep everyone else on their toes. I'd be real surprised to see us with RJ equipment unless something extremely drastic would happen (I wouldn't even know what drastic would be). Besides if WN was interested in an RJ, we'd be all over Boeing to have them design a "do all" RJ for us. SO my assumption is WN just has no interest in that unless another LCC starts invading our turf with a big mess of RJ's and cuts into our loads.