United777
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200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 5:56 pm

According to an article (http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/174829_boeing25.html) Boeing is expecting 200 7E7's to be ordered this year alone & 500 ordered by first delivery in 2008.

I think 200 this year alone might going a little too far. It's already six months into the year. If this happens most of the orders would come from China. (Just my opinion)

[Edited 2004-05-25 10:57:18]
 
sabenapilot
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 6:08 pm

Well, 200 sounds a lot, but Boeing has already 50 on order and since the B7E7 is merely a B767 replacement this is very well possible. How many B767s are up for replacement?

If they can convince 2 or 3 more B767 operators the B7E7 is good for them, they already have their target.





[Edited 2004-05-25 11:09:55]
 
AirframeAS
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 6:09 pm

yeah, thats a bit over-estimating the orders. My prediction is about roughly 100-115 at the most...give or take. As far as orders when the first delivery happens, I dont know what to think since orders can be changed or cancelled.
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777ER
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 6:10 pm

Boeing's prediction could actually be correct because there are several airlines that I know off are considering adding the B7E7 to replace their old 767's and A310's
1) Singapore Airlines
2) LOT
3) Lufthansa
4) Air Lingus

If anyone else knows of other airlines considering the B7E7 then please add to the list
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TK001
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 7:38 pm

5) THY - Turkish Airlines might order some since they are looking for new aircrafts. Would love to see B7E7 in Turkish fleet

TK001
 
AA787
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 7:50 pm

Don't forget all the airlines in China. They are expected to make an order bigger than ANA's!!!

AA787
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voodoo
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 7:53 pm

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chrisnh
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 8:07 pm

There's always a gap between 'firm' orders and 'options' (which are often not taken up, or converted to something else). Anyone know whether this '200' number includes 'options?' If so, it's hardly an impressive prediction. And you can be sure that if they (Boeing) don't hit 200 this year, the naysayers will be out in force. "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and remove all doubt."
 
keesje
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 8:23 pm



Mike Bair, Boeing's vice president of the 7E7 program, said only 92 7E7s will be built for customers through 2009.




http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/174829_boeing25.html
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A388
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 8:40 pm

Emirates Airlines also indicated they would be interested in the 7E7 to replace their A330-200 fleet from 2009. If Boeing can make good offers for SQ, EK and the Chinese airlines they might well reach 200 orders this year.

Only time will tell....

Regards A388
 
MidnightMike
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 10:47 pm

Sabenapilot

The 7E7 is more than just a 767 replacement, it can also replace the 757, & A300 series aircraft. With it's range & anticipated fuels savings, it can also replace any series of aircraft.
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desertjets
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 10:52 pm

There are several major airshows this summer, so the 200 number is not so far fetched.

If I was at home I could look this up, but how many FIRM orders did the 777 have in its first year after launch. That should be a good indicator for the 7E7.
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starrion
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:04 pm

I wonder why Boeing isn't updating their Order and delivery website. The ANA order isn't up there nor is the GOL order or WN's.


Any others that are missing? That's almost 100 aircraft not shown. Unless I missed any other orders......


Strange.
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spk
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:11 pm

Local medias in Thailand reported that Boeing is trying to get 7E7 order from THAI to replace their A300 fleet. If this becomes a reality then we can expect 15-25 airframe order (their A300-600 fleet consists of 21 aircrafts).
 
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RayChuang
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:17 pm

I have this feeling that Boeing is going to have pretty substantial 7E7-3 orders from LH, SQ and TG for regional flights. It all comes down to this: the Airbus A330-200 is way too heavy a plane for regional routes.
 
Guest

RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:24 pm

200 Units may actually be low. Airlines will choose the best bird for the job. Just ask BBD and EMB. While the CRJ-700/900 have sold well, the ERJ's are garnering some pretty large orders.
 
HUYfan
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:24 pm

i really cant see LH ordering the 7E7, they are a majority Airbus carrier and besides, they have no need for a 7E7 sized a/c. The 321 and 333 are ample for the forseeable future.

Regards

Mike
 
Adria
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:27 pm

It's a Boeing article
 
garnetpalmetto
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:46 pm

VERY good, Adria! It's an article about Boeing. Now, do you care to toss in any analysis there or do you want to just identify it as an article about Boeing?
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aviationwiz
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:53 pm

200 this year, and 800 by 2008 might be a little too optimistic. Wouldn't that equate into one of the best selling aircraft ever?
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NWA742
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Tue May 25, 2004 11:54 pm

Sounds like great news for Boeing. The 7E7 will almost certainly be a charm for Boeing. There are so many aircraft, 767s, A300s/A310s, even 757s I guess, to be replaced in the upcoming years.

It's a Boeing article

It's actually a Seattle Post article. You're just trying to make it look like the article is not credible, because you don't want to believe it's very realistic, do you Adria? I know why, because it means that Boeing may have a very high success rate with this new aircraft, and you don't want that. Because you are biased towards Airbus and against Boeing.

BTW, I've read over some of your previous posts and you don't seem to have a problem trusting Airbus' news and outlooks for their aircraft, so why do you at Boeing? Double standard, huh?



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garnetpalmetto
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:01 am

No, no, no! Don't you see?!? Adria believes that Boeing has paid off the Seattle P-I to ONLY write articles with a pro-Boeing slant, journalistic integrity be damned! After all, NOTHING like that happens in Europe!  Yeah sure
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gigneil
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:07 am

In fact, the Seattle P-I frequently has a very negative view on Boeing.

It always surprises me.

N
 
Fiedman
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:09 am

There is one airline I can think of as well that could order the aircraft British Airways which has always been a big Boeing supporter they may order a few aircrafts to either help or replace there 767/757 fleet one of there or both

And I think airlines that may not want the A380 because of the unsureity of its success and its economics would probably be more drawn to the 7E7 so I don't thing the 200 orders is that far fetched.
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7e72004
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:09 am

What are the chances of a US airline ordering the 7E7? I think it is great that international carriers are showing interest though  Big thumbs up
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Hamlet69
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:14 am

I wouldn't be completely surprised by 200 firm orders this year, though it would be a formidable challenge.

ANA has already committed to 50, with a contract to be finalized once an engine supplier is chosen (strong odds are on GE).
CASC is strongly rumored to be close to an order for the six 'majors.' Word is that this order has the possibility of being larger than the ANA order, which is not surprising when one considers it will be spread among 6 different airlines.
Singapore Airlines is widely expected to order the aircraft before Farnborough. Although I have not heard a definite size of the order, I would assume @ 20-25.
Either one of the leasing companies, ILFC or GECAS could quite possibly order the aircraft this year. However, both have adopted the policy in recent years to only order aircraft they have customers lined up for, so I still have some hesitation about listing them as initial launch customers.
Ideally, Boeing would also want an early European launch customer. Lufthansa and/or Alitalia seems the most likely. Alitalia has been publically after the 7E7 for over a year now, while Lufthansa seems interested, but appears to be holding their cards close to their chest. I would consider Air Berlin a long-shot, though I do expect a large narrowbody order this year, probably more 737NGs.
Air New Zealand has made headlines recently for their ongoing campaign for a 767-300ER replacement. Though the order has been delayed in order to consider Boeing's 7E7 offer, price appears to be an issue. Perhaps in conjunction with one of the leasors mentioned above?

Finally, perhaps the two airlines most mentioned here and elsewhere: JAL and Emirates. Personally, I don't expect either to announce an order this year. JAL have publically said they are not looking at ordering anymore aircraft anytime soon. Though I am 100% confident they will order the aircraft eventually, it won't be this year. Emirates seems very keen on the 7E7-9 to replace their A330-200 fleet starting @ 2010. However, there doesn't appear to be an rush at the airline to place an order, especially considering that, even a year's delay, would still put them in prime position to be the -9's launch customer.

In conclusion, 200 by year's end might be pushing it, but is possible. 500 by 2008? That would definitely entail one or more of the U.S. majors getting strongly behind the program, with their finances firmly behind them. The timing of the latter point is wide open to debate. . .

Regards,

Hamlet69
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777236ER
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:19 am

TUI anyone?

They've been poised to order that "definate A330-200 order" for a very long time now. They've been stalling for a long time - for a reason...?
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Greg
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:32 am

I would say if Boeing can't sell 200 medium range jets this year...then there is a serious problem with their marketing tacticts.

The overall market for this product (whether Airbus or Boeing) is very strong now that the A300 and 767 have exceeded the 20 year marker.... I would expect both manufacturers to pick up some significant orders in the next 6-12 months.

Clearly US orders will lag. But there is plenty of int'l carriers making some significant $$$...
 
NWA742
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 12:34 am

In fact, the Seattle P-I frequently has a very negative view on Boeing.

It always surprises me.


You're correct Gigneil. Surprises me as well.



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dbo861
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 1:29 am

The article says "Boeing believes it may win as many as 200 firm orders for its 7E7 this year alone, en route to 500 orders by the time the first plane is delivered in 2008." It doesn't necessarily say they EXPECT to have that many, just an estimate. But it would be awesome for them.

"So far this year, Boeing has 40 net orders. That does not include 15 737s recently ordered by Brazil's GOL, a low-fare carrier. Nor does it include several more 717s ordered by Air Tran. And Boeing has not yet added that 50-plane 7E7 order from All Nippon to its 2004 total..."
When it says an order of several more 717s from AirTran, is that referring to the 6 they ordered last week...because when the article says several, it makes it sound like more than the 6 they ordered...was there another order i don't know about?
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 2:07 am

If I was at home I could look this up, but how many FIRM orders did the 777 have in its first year after launch. That should be a good indicator for the 7E7.

The launch order for the 777 was placed by UA on October 15, 1990. Through October 1991, a total of 49 firm orders were placed by ANA, Thai, British Airways, and United. At EOS in June 1995, 137 firm orders had been placed. The 777 has sold at a rate of approx. 45 frames a year.

Obviously the 7E7 has exceeded the 1st year sales of the 777, so we could be looking at a production rate of 100 per year.
 
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TR763
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 2:40 am

Maybe I´m not very well informed, but i think that maybe AA, UA, DL and AC could be interested in the 7E7 couldn´t they??
As their 767 are aging 20 years or almost that, I was just expecting that they could renew this part of their fleet.

I wonder if Varig changed their 767 to 7E7! It´s not going to happen soon, but it´s good to dream sometimes  Smile !

All the Best!!
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Guest

RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 3:15 am

Maybe I´m not very well informed, but i think that maybe AA, UA, DL and AC could be interested in the 7E7 couldn´t they??

Absolutely and it's more of a money issue than anything. This is likely the target aircraft for DL as a 767 replacement. DL has always done a better job with 767 size birds vs. 777/747.
 
DLLongIsland
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 3:37 am

My sources tell me that DL will order a 7E7 as the new "Spirit of Delta" flagship aircraft. The current "Spirit" will be up for retirement within the next two years, as it was the first 767-200 that DL took delivery of.
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 3:52 am

My sources tell me that DL will order a 7E7 as the new "Spirit of Delta" flagship aircraft. The current "Spirit" will be up for retirement within the next two years, as it was the first 767-200 that DL took delivery of.

IMO, unless the employees chip in for this aircraft, there is DL can't affor a new fleet type at this time.

Maybe I´m not very well informed, but i think that maybe AA, UA, DL and AC could be interested in the 7E7 couldn´t they??

In time, yes-

American Airlines
58 763ER (8.5 years)
17 762ER (17.5 years)
13 762 (20.5 years)

United Airlines
37 763ER (8 years)
19 762 (21.5 years)

Delta Airlines
21 764ER (3 years)
53 763ER (8.5 years)
28 763 (11.5 years)
15 762 (21 years)

Continental Airlines
16 764ER (3 years)
10 762ER (3.5 years)

---

As you can see, some 767 fleets are indeed aproaching their retirement age, while others are still young. I'd expect American to make the first move, as they could retire old 762s and the remaining A300s with one aircraft...
 
nosedive
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 4:25 am

Shares of Boeing rose $1.16 to $44.56 in trading on the New York Stock Exchange.
It looks like the investors like this news- or that's what the article seems to be implying. And DFWrev provides us with another reason for investors to buy into Boeing. With the combined total of AA, UA, and DL 767's that will be over 20 by the time of the 7E7 launch being 92, and the total sum of those airlines who will have 767s over the age of 10 by that date as 148, the numbers do seem to indicate that there will be a demand for the 7E7 in the next few years.

"Currently, about 20 airlines are expressing serious interest in what adds up to about 500 7E7 airplanes."
I'm sure we all have different takes on what a "serious interest" is, but the point here is that the 7E7 is gaining exposure in the airline world, something that other Boeing products, such as the Sonic Cruiser and the 747-XXX series, didn't seem to generate much of.
 
codeshare
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 5:03 am

The 7E7 seems to be the perfect choice for LOT.

It would replace the 767s, save costs( fuel etc and maintenance, allow for expansion on long-haul routes.

This deal is possible but the 7E7 has to actually fly .
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starrion
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 5:19 am

Both the A380 and the 7E7 are going to fly.

They are both going to be successful at their segment of the marketplace.

IMO the 7E7 will sell five to eight times as many airframes as the A380, but that is not a slight against the A380, rather an assessment of how many aircraft the market demands for that role.

I think both companies are going to make money of their projects. We have a lot to look forward to.
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MD 11
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 5:53 am

Hi,
LH is defenitely going for the 7E7 in my eyes! They were looking a long time for a replacement for their A300/310-fleet. O.K., they ordered the A330-200, but LH often said, that is`nt the best choice: The A330 is slight too big for them. But today, there are not a lot alternatives, so they went for the A330, knowing, this is not he best choice. But when there will be the 7E7 established, I am convincend they will buy that plane,because after all I heard, it would be the perfect addition for their fleet (especially african and central-asia-routes).
I don`t give a damn on rumours like "LH is a airbus carrier...". They just buy, what they need, regardless of Airbus or Boeing preferences!
Bye

MD 11
 
N79969
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 5:57 am

I'll believe it when I see it. But then again Boeing must be pretty confident if they are talking to the press with specific numbers.
 
AvObserver
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 7:30 am

Certainly possible but I agree with ChrisNH that perhaps they shouldn't go out on a limb with predictions, even though the 200 number is pegged as a best case scenario. I certainly think over 100 to 150 is possible by year-end, given the large body of carriers they're talking to and they could probably garner another 100 or so, next year. However, I wonder if the ordering appetites of some carriers might be dampened by the high fuel prices that may create cash flow problems for a lot of them, even though a big part of the rationale FOR ordering the 7E7 is to combat high fuel prices. It'll be interesting to see what happens with all of this going on.
 
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American 767
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 8:11 am

And what if Boeing announces a 7E7 Freighter? If that happens then I'm sure Fed Ex will order a lot of them, no less than 60 of them, because they have a large fleet of A300F and A310F aircraft that is approaching retirement time. Cargo capacity of the 7E7 versus that of the current A300F will be a major point of concern as to whether or not ordering the 7E7 Freighter, but anyway Boeing should think of it. Maybe a stretch version of the 7E7 in a freighter version would have a capacity as large as that of the A300 freigher.
I'm convinced Fed Ex would love that.

Ben Soriano
Brussels Belgium
Ben Soriano
 
EAL757
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 8:23 am

OK, I have to attack that last comment...A300/A310 fleet up for replacement by FedEx? Not even close....especially the A300's. If you'll remember, they took first delivery of the A300-600F freighter around '94. ...FedEx doesn't retire planes like an airline...they fly these things much less....why do you think they're still flying 727's and DC-10's...they'll have those planes (at least the DC-10's) for many more years. Those A300's are around for another 10 at least.

Secondly, FedEx just ordered A380's but those fit a size need. Don't look for FedEx to start a trend of ordering new...it's not usually their style. If anything I think FedEx might nab some of the A300-600's that are be replaced with carriers by the 7E7's...same for some of the middle aged to younger 767's...I would not be surprised if FedEx went after those as well...not 7E7's...it'll never happen! ...and if it does, it'll be because they bought used many years from now.

Also, re: the majors (AA, DL, UA, CO) ordering 7E7's...CO is about the only one who might be in shape to do it any time soon (as in before about 3 years). I'm sure they'll all have them eventually, but tell me where AA, DL and UA especially have that kind of cash laying around!


Jeff
 
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 8:27 am

I failed to address Ben's final comment in my last post:

"I'm convinced FedEx will like that"

...Ben, FedEx has convinced us all (and I certainly can't argue because financially they're in great shape) that they can bring new technology to old stuff and make it work for quite some time. Remember that FedEx planes don't fly nearly the amount of cycles that passenger planes fly, so an A300 for FedEx can last twice as long as an A300 for AA. FedEx bought a few MD-11's new; some A300-600's new; and some A380's on order will be new...but other than that, FedEx buys used ...steals of deals and puts in the money they need to to ensure proper maintenance, and then they fly these things until the wheels fall off. ...and they've proven over the past 25 years that it's a system that works.

So, I'm not sure what's convinced you that FedEx will be all over a 7E7 freighter, but you'd be hard-pressed to pull me into that logic.

-Jeff
 
windshear
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 8:52 am

I think it's a long time since we've heard anything from BA...

I think their 763s will be replaced and with the rumors of them getting rid of their B744's, they would then replace the B744s with the 777 and the 767 and some 777 routes with the 7E7...I think that if they were going to order the A380 they would have...

I think we also would see some charter companys order it, as it is so fuel effecient they could run the jet to new destinations and even replace their B752s and A300/A310s with this one for inter European routes or so...

BA I think will either go for the LR/ER 777 family or the 7E7...

Also Boeing has to have some solid costumor feedback, because such statements are only to their disadvantage if they are not met...

Boeing stated that they only list airline orders when they have signed a contract, so that explains why some are missing, to answer one guys question...

Boaz...
"If you believe breaking is possible, believe in fixing also"-Rebbe Nachman
 
EAL757
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 8:57 am

I just have to say this: speculation is a beautiful thing isn't it? ...we're all presuming that all these airlines will order, but truth is that with the oil crisis going on and the ongoing threat of terror, this market is incredibly unpredictable. We talk about airline's needs...well, I think gone are the days when the US carriers could just order the latest craze...I think we'll finally start to see planes like the 75, 76 and A300's get their FULL intended use, instead of being subjected to typical American materialism...ie: "it's old, time for a new one."

Well, news flash folks: that mentality isn't going to fly with our near bankrupt friends UA, DL and AA! They're going to have to fly those A300's 75's and 76's a lot longer before replacing them--it's the nature of the market now. SO, stop speculating! It's worthless and holds no credibility! ...and again, I go back to the earlier comment made that FedEx's A300/A310 fleet needs to be replaced! The A300's are less than 10 years old! Needs to be replaced!!? They do a great job for FedEx and they're young!

:Jeff:
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 9:22 am

instead of being subjected to typical American materialism

Typical American materialism? Like NW opperating DC9s and DC10s from the dawn of the jet age? Or the fleets of 732 still in use at WN and DL?

Do you share this critisim with EK and SQ who turn their fleet over in a span of 5 years?
 
gigneil
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RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 9:35 am

FedEx has bought many new DC-10Fs, was the launch customer of the MD-11, ordered many new 727Fs, and ordered 36 new A300F4-600Rs.

FedEx is no stranger to new aircraft.

That being said, Freddy doesn't like Boeing so much right now, and FedEx's A300s are all virtually brand new. I wouldn't expect switching to the 7E7 unless it offered 80-90 tons on long range missions, which I don't believe it does.

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brons2
Posts: 2462
Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2001 1:02 pm

RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 9:46 am

I wouldn't expect switching to the 7E7 unless it offered 80-90 tons on long range missions, which I don't believe it does.

A potential 772LRF could do that....

Back on topic, speaking of the 7E7, I don't think we'll see a cargo version for quite a few years.
Firings, if well done, are good for employee morale.
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: 200 7E7's To Be Ordered In 2004: Boeing

Wed May 26, 2004 9:55 am

Indeed a 777F based on the 772LR platform could...

...but my guess is Boeing is demanding a ridiculous premium for such a craft.

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