United777
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Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 4:55 am

Cebu Air is expected to order put in a $300m order for either the 717-200 or A319 to replace it's' entire fleet of DC-9's.

I think the 717 would be perfect for Cebu Air, any order for the 717 is good. Keep the original Douglas jet going.
 
KL808
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 4:59 am

I've stated many times that the B717 was out due to its uncertain future, so it MAY be the A319, though, 5J isn't happy with this aircraft either due to its high capacity.

Could it be an embraer order?

drew
AMS-LAX-MNL
 
as739x
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 6:05 am

CEBU had not ruled out the 717. They have stated they are interested in it many times.

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
717fan
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 7:15 am

"Justplanes" noted nothing about Embraer.....perhaps they're not as soon available as Cebu wants new planes.....
 
KL808
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 8:02 am

Yes that's true they need the aircrafts ASAP.

But, It will be a total shock if they do order the B717 because it has been stated by 5J itself that the B717 has an uncertain future and it doesn't want a fleet of B717 that might not be in production in the next couple of years.

The reason 5J wants a new fleet is to further shoot itself in front of Philippine Airlines. Currently PR's 733, A320, as well as A330's, plow the skies in the Philippines, and the public in the Philippines is quiet influential with regards to the "brand new ness " of aircrafts.

therefore if 5J orders B717, and the production line ceases for example... PR Can put a campaign blitz that it still has Brand new planes... Or planes that are still produced. Cause the public wont know that the B717 would be new.

anyways that's just Filipino mentality about new stuff. I cant really explain it, but some of our Filipino friends might vouch for me on this one.

Now if Boeing gives 5J a really SWEAT deal, that if lets say they do cease production, and it can swap them for B73X series, then YES we might see a B717 deal, but nothing less.

Embraer might be out of question because of availability like you guys have stated.

A318 would be too heavy but can be a possibility. The A319, yes might be overcapacity for 5J, BUT provides underbelly containers which might increase cargo, since they have agreements with many shipping companies such as aboitz.

drew
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dl021
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 8:50 am

WHats all this? I thought the order for the 717 for these guys was pretty much done. The thing fits their needs almost perfectly, whereas the airbus has too much capacity for their load factors.
Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
 
PennPal
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 1:12 pm

I, too, would like to see them order the 717...it seems logical, since they already operate DC-9's.

And if they order 717's, along with ATA and others, it might motivate Boeing to keep the line open, as has been discussed before.
 
COSPN
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 4:06 pm

Why would they replace the DC 9's they are working fine for NW..

If it is good enough for Americans, I should be OK in the Philippines that pay less than USD 100 for a round trip flite..

They are stupid if the waste that money...Look at NW and keep the 9's..

CO only stopped 727 service from AB) (MNL / RPLL), Philippines">MNL a few years ago..It is just some sort of scam to rip off the traveling public of the Philippines and put it into someone's pocket..
 
717fan
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 4:56 pm

A likely possiblity is that Cebu takes some or all of the 717's now operating by Jetstar...
 
wirraway
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 4:58 pm

Could be that Cebu Pacific will take the 14 Qantas 717s as they are replaced
by the new A320s for Jetstar which launched yesterday, a QF 717 was recently in the Cebu Pacific hangar at Manila for assessment.
 
Flying-Tiger
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Wed May 26, 2004 5:00 pm

Suppose the deciding factors in this case are less the aircraft itself but:

1. Who is offering the better financial deal to Cebu Pacific?
2. What is the demand in a few years? If steady then the B712 is a no-brainer, but if moving upwards, than the A319 is better suited, as it has a family around it.
3. What and how many delivery slots are available from the lessors and manufacturers?

In general terms I think that the A319 is the better choice, even though the B712 might be more economical in the very near future. however, as a carrier you can't think in a 2-3 year window, but in a long-term window. You could expect that this fleet decision will last for the next 10-15 years for 5J - and given the uncertainity around the B717 and the unpredictability of demand the A32X seems to be a better choice.

Regards
Flying-Tiger
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KL808
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 2:12 am

Good point flying tigers.

Again though I have my big doubts about the B717 order. Like Flying tigers pointed out the A319 would be a better choice IF and only IF there is a future increase of Demand. Also cargo is better on this aircraft.

The main reason for them getting rid of the DC-9 is because most of them has an upcoming check of some sort not sure if its a D check.

and the DC-9's are a bit old when you step in them.

Last time I flew 5J was last December on the DVO-CBU-DVO route and the interior was truly showing its age especially the seats.

drew
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as739x
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 2:19 am

Flying-tiger....If they want to grow, why is the A319 the better choice over a 73G? I think you need to reword it that the 717 for stability, and a A319 or 73G if they look for growth.

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
Guest

RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 2:43 am

If they are unhappy with the A319's capacity then why dont they order the A318.  Insane
 
JBLUA320
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 2:46 am

"If they are unhappy with the A319's capacity then why dont they order the A318"

The A319 gives them more cabin capacity, but the A318 is heavy. Given the choice, they'd go for A319- if they were unhappy with it, I think they would probably be stuck...

JBLU
 
COSPN
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 7:49 am

So Send them to Air Asia in Taiwan for a new Interior cheaper than a new airplane Philippines is lucky to have a good and cheap Heavy MX center Just an hour away in Tainan Taiwan...Taiwan is much smaller but has more flights than the Philippines..DC9's are the best...If they get rid of them it will be the end of Cebu Pacific Air ..the numbers dont work..
 
N751PR
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 9:58 am

I would love to hear 5J getting the 717 but I love flying the A319 so either way is good for me.  Big thumbs up
"Ladies and Gentlemen it's happy hour. You will get two approaches for the price of one."
 
manni
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 7:03 pm

'If it's good enough for Americans, it should be OK in the Philippines that pay less than USD 100 for a return flight'

What an arrogant thing to say.
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airtran737
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Thu May 27, 2004 7:51 pm

Well hopefully Cebu will order the 717, although they have at least one DC-9 from YX that was due for a D check when YX sold it to them last year, so they should be able to get a few more years out of that one.
Nice Trip Report!!! Great Pics, thanks for posting!!!! B747Forever
 
COSPN
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 1:06 am

Manni,

The point is NW is Fine and happy and has been Flying DC-9's since the 60's and will for many more years to come..and have to buy Hush kits for them..

Most Pax on NW pay more than 100 RT to fly Developing contries need good low cost airtransport not going into Dept to pay off 717 A320's..

just hate to see Developing Countries wasting money sending it to Countries like the USA while they in this case take the Money an Fly the DC-9 But Thats OK with Me I'm a US Citizen..I Just go to AB) (MNL / RPLL), Philippines">MNL and see the Kids on the Street Begging while Govt And Business leaders feed their ego with SUV's and A320's

I thing buying new planes for a Developing Country is Arrogant when most people cant afford to fly then I go to the US and see DC 9's and 727-200's and DC-10's Flying Around..I Just don't get it...
 
Guest

RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 1:08 am

The A319 gives them more cabin capacity, but the A318 is heavy. Given the choice, they'd go for A319- if they were unhappy with it, I think they would probably be stuck...


Yes but you'll be saving 7-10% fuel per flight. Maybe a mix would be better.
 
manni
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 4:40 am

Cospn,

Easyjet, Jetblue, Jetstar and soon Virgin USA fly new A319/320 aircraft, they 're low cost too and certainly have fares for less than 100US$.

DC9's are not only very noisy and produce a lot more pollution but they also use a lot more fuel. Very ignorant indeed to still fly these aircraft, together with DC10's and 727's.

Wether the Philippines are a developed country or not has nothing to do with the purchase of aircraft made by a private company.
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KL808
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:11 am

Point is why spend money on an expensive overhaul, when you can use that to pay for brand new aircrafts with little or no worries of maintenance for the first couple of years.

Expect an order soon, or not at all.

B717-200 will win order If and only If Boeing will allow swap to 737NG IF B717 production ceases.

A319 order will win if above is not met. A318 has a lot more weight and would not really be good for 5J. A319 would be a better fit. Better cargo capacity.

Why no 737NG I don't know, but last I heard the A319 was more favored than the 737NG.

drew
AMS-LAX-MNL
 
KL808
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:23 am

I STAND CORRECTED.

There is a BIG rumor going around at 5J that the B717 won the deal.

Airbus didn't wanna budge for less price.

the B717 will be ordered, Boeing gave a sweet deal. I guess I was mistaken with regards to swapping the aircraft, if Boeing where to cancel production.

Price was factor of purchase.

NOTE: Contract hasn't been signed yet, but B717 order is immanent.

SOURCE: Close 5J family friend.

drew
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N751PR
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:31 am

Bah, you spoiled the surprise, KL808.  Laugh out loud
"Ladies and Gentlemen it's happy hour. You will get two approaches for the price of one."
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:32 am

And if they order 717's, along with ATA and others, it might motivate Boeing to keep the line open, as has been discussed before.

From what I here, if Cebu Air orders 717s, they will in all likelyhood be second hand frames from JetStar, not factory built frames. In other words, next to no benefit for Boeing.
 
N79969
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:39 am

"DC9's are not only very noisy and produce a lot more pollution but they also use a lot more fuel. Very ignorant indeed to still fly these aircraft, together with DC10's and 727's."

An ignorant remark. I'm not sure how one would be ignorant by operating these airplanes. D9s, D10, and 727s have very low capital costs associated with them and in many cases offset the fuel burn penalty relative to newer types.

Among the airlines that operate one or some of these types:

FedEx
JAL
Northwest
UPS
Varig (freighter)

Had NWA went on a buying spree to replace DC9 and DC10 in the early nineties, they might have been liquidated already.

 
KL808
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:42 am

LOL N751PR

come on now, wouldn't be nice to not report it to our buddies on A.net.

hehehe

BTW... I think this would be a NEW order, not sure if they are second hand from jetstar, but I could be mistaken

drew
AMS-LAX-MNL
 
N751PR
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:51 am

LOL, the members of the forum I got the information from just wanted to have you guys guessing.  Laugh out loud
"Ladies and Gentlemen it's happy hour. You will get two approaches for the price of one."
 
COSPN
Posts: 1535
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 2:09 pm

Looks Like the End of 5J..Then Time for someone to Start another airline..

With MD-80's Like they are doing in Indonesia..717 Killed HA..Now they will Kill 5J Too bad it was a good Airline hopefully they wont sign and get some Used MD-80's or 737 's from Somewhere...AT least the A320's Could fly nearby International like China and Guam..PAL has 3x per week Guam-Manila helping Continental with 12x per week 737-800.. I know you dont get a big Commision selling used planes...Time will tell.....What is Boing going to do with all HA 's 717 and who else is it QF that wants to dump them ??

Good thing NW serves AB) (MNL / RPLL), Philippines">MNL transit PAX at MSP then on a DC-9..to Final Dest..

NW will be flying the DC-9 long after 5J is out of business..I may be wrong but we'll see
 
KL808
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 2:21 pm

Why would 5J be dead with the purchase of B717?

Airtran is doing well with their B717. HA's story has a lot of factors why their not doing good.

5J is a hybrid LCC and is doing quiet well.

I think the B717 will fit the airline very well.

drew
AMS-LAX-MNL
 
COSPN
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 5:12 pm

We'll see.. why have a Multi Million Dollar plane when you can get one for Under 1M or less..The Problem with the Philippines is Utilization most airports don't have nav aids except AB) (MNL / RPLL), Philippines">MNL so it hampers nite and bad weather ops..

..SO yes I think 717 Will be the end of 5J Just too expensive..not good for Intl ops that can be paid in USD..and can make some money.. Wrong palne and Too expensive..This is Just a scam for someone to get rich...

I flew on 5J once they dint want to run the APU and Dint have a A/C cart so it was very very hot untill the pax got on and were ready to go..If they do that to the 717 they will look very old on the Inside after a few years also..

They should stick with the DC-9's tell the Salesman to visit NW in MSP ..

Nothing wrong with old planes if they are maintained ..

 
manni
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 7:08 pm

N79969,

Airlines that got rid of those old DC10's, DC9's, 727's, and L1011's include...

Singapore Airlines
Cathay Pacific
All Nippon Airways
and many many others.

(Perhaps one of the reasons why they stand today, where they are.)

Airlines still operating these aircraft, while much cleaner and far less fuel consuming aircraft are available, should do the effort, when possible, to upgrade their fleet. But the last thing we would expect from your part of the world, is even remotely try to reduce air pollution.
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dutchjet
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Fri May 28, 2004 8:54 pm

The 717 would be a good choice for the short segments that Cebu flies, and the 717 is a durable aircraft, with its routes dating back to the durable DC9. The 717 is optimized for frequent short runs, just what Cebu is looking for, and I am certain that Boeing will offer a very good deal if they are looking at new aircraft. How many airplanes are we talking about? I read that a QF 717 visited with Cebu, not sure if that was QF looking to sell their 717s or if it was a trip arranged by Boeing.

As for the discussion about new planes and an airlines "obligation" to replace its fleet - I think we can all agree that every airline worldwide would love to have the most modern, clean and fuel-efffecient fleet, its all a matter of costs. Airplanes are expensive and airlines take different approaches. The remark against americans and US carriers above is uncalled for - the US airlines in general have a modern fleet - the US carriers are also huge and its takes years and billions to go through fleet modernization. NW always is the target - but NW flies lots of new Airbus airliners and the DC10s are finally on their way out, also dont forget that many of NW's DC10s are only about 15-20 years old, middle age for an airliner. Re the DC9, thats a business decision that NW made (most here dont like it, but NW did invest millions in updating their DC9s) and it was practical. Sometimes new aircraft are not the answer, to our friend above from Belgium, all of those wonderful new Airbus A32X & A332 aircraft delivered to Sabena did not save the airline, they killed it because SN could not afford them. Perhaps all of those new planes is the reason why Sabena (and Citybird and SobelAir and VG Airlines) are where they are today; but good business decisions is the last thing we would expect from your part of the world......your words not mine.
 
manni
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Sat May 29, 2004 3:42 am

Dutchjet,

FYI, I'm not offended by any kind of remarks, made by a so far unknown person to me on an internet forum, about Sabena or anything else Belgian. Save yourself the effort next time. Insane
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N79969
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Sat May 29, 2004 4:00 am

Manni,

Do you actually believe that any of the airlines you listed were motivated to purchase new airplanes so they can clean up the environment?

The reasons for why they disposed of older aircraft are driven either by hard economic analysis or legal restriction. Singapore Airlines makes (or used to make) quite a bit of money dealing in used airplanes.

Northwest and JAL could have easily replaced DC-10s in the past 10 years. But they chose not to dispose of perfectly good airplanes whose replacement cost would have exceeded the value of any fuel savings.
 
manni
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Sat May 29, 2004 5:05 am

Absolutely not N79969, nevertheless they do contribute to a cleaner environment. And while they are at it, they can atleast pretend they do, some nice publicity that comes with it.
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COSPN
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Sat May 29, 2004 7:53 am

Manni,

5J has to compete with PAL/Air Phil and Interisland ferry service for PAX...

SQ Govt Owned Long Haul...they dont have to worry about Money..

CX No Competition except Dragon Air

NH Japanese Carrier Sill flying -200's Along with JAL -200's and DC-10's...

Good for NW to not worry about EGO and get rid of perfectly good DC 9's

DC-9's could also be used as Freighters..and there are none in the Philippines.
Could be a a good moneymaker for 5j but they want new PAX Only planes

Hopefully they will ony get 1-2 717 and keep their present dc-9's so they wont have to close down as soon..
 
manni
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RE: Cebu Air $300m Order Soon

Sat May 29, 2004 7:59 pm

Cospn,

I dont know what point your trying to make. If I'm not mistaken Cebu Air is a private company, if they feel they have reason to order new jets, even tough the country they operate in, is in a no to good shape, what exactely is the problem?

'Hopefully they will only get 1-2 717 and keep their present dc-9's so they wont have to close down as soon'

Most likely, that's the reason why Cebu Air is shopping for new planes, to reduce costs.

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