Topic Author
Posts: 59
Joined: Sat Apr 17, 2004 12:45 am

USA & The Future Of Aviation?

Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:00 pm

Is it likely that the 3 largest Carriers in the World..AA , UA ,and DL...may soon join the likes of Pan Am and TWA on the Dust bin of Aviation History?..Some "experts" from the Financial Times ,a short time ago, said that is a possibility..they say that the Legacy carriers including CO and NW as well ..may just not be able to handle the many upcoming problems. Such as rising fuel costs ,labor problems ,Possible Terriorist attacks ,and fierce competition with LCCs. Many problems may be beyond their control. If this does happen ..International travel would be handled by the large Foreign carriers with their Governments financial help ,if needed (something the US gov. would probably not do)..and US domestic travel would be taken over by 6 or 7 LCCs...My questions are .. 1- do you really see this scenario playing out this way?..and 2- if so wouldn't the LCCs run into the same problems eventually as the Big Guys they replaced?? Say it ain't so!..regards SW.
Posts: 70
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 9:21 pm

RE: USA & The Future Of Aviation?

Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:32 pm

To be Honest the Low cost boom here in the UK is coming to a close, more people are flying with the likes of BA/BMI etc because for the same money you get a better service. I think this will happen in the US too.

Lets face it no matter who you fly with if your the last guy to buy a ticket for a flight its hardly low cost is it??

the way I see it for the world give it 10 yrs and we will be flying with STAR alliance or One World. Or another alliance group

coseshares in the low cost sectors wouldnt surprise me either.

I don't think LCC's will ever be the main airlines of a country to many people are patriotic.

any way, my 10cents

ill let some one who knows what there talking about get on with it..

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Joined: Tue May 13, 2003 2:57 am

RE: USA & The Future Of Aviation?

Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:43 pm

Who really knows what the feature holds for the US market as well as other markets in the world. I myself see 2 of the so called majors failing between now and the next 3 years. Yes the LCC's will get stronger and grow, the so called majors will adjust and lower there cost to compete. It will be an interesting ride to say the least.
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RE: USA & The Future Of Aviation?

Wed Jun 16, 2004 11:44 pm

I think because of the preponderance of LCC competition in domestic and short haul markets, and its almost complete absence in longhaul intercontinental markets, those large legacy carriers who do most of their business domestically/regionally are going to be hardest hit. This includes the big US carriers, who even though they might have sizeable international networks, do by far the majority of their business domestically. It is quite foreseeable that either these carriers will fold completely, or emerge from Chapter 11 in radically altered shape. Simply trimming service and removing customer contact staff from the front line in favour of automated solutions will simply drive customers away to LCC from whom they know what to expect, even if its not as good as the offering from the legacy carrier (or at least as good as it used to be). Because practically all the legacy carriers are in a similiar (poor) position, consolidation is unlikely until at least one major player goes under.

Big European carriers who depend on their longhaul business to subsidise their shorthaul/regional flying, seeming to be weathering the LCC storm OK, some better than others, by adjusting their shorthaul product/pricing to meet the competition head on (not necessarily matching fare for fare, but emphasizing a qualilty differential while staying within reach on price). BA have done quite well with this strategy, and seem to be turning the tide to a certain extent in the UK market. Other European carriers eg AZ are basket cases, and always have been, and have really only one logical destination - complete disappearance. Consolidation will happen but only between carriers that can expect to survive long term (such as AF and KL). Others will be left either to disappear or be reduced to niche regional carriers/alliance feeds.
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