The first - and perhaps most important - point to make is that clearly, Frontier is making extremely extensive adjustments to the Fall schedule, more so than any other year.
Basically, until this morning's news, all we knew about were the cuts and changes. LIT
becomes the first new service announced.
(As someone noted above, it was also a mild surprise, given that Frontier had said there would be no new cities this year).
may be the only new city (or not) but it won't be the only new route. If it were, then three or four of the A319's would be sitting around doing nothing. Which (a) doesn't sound like Frontier, and (b) would be an expensive waste of aircraft.
There are many puzzles that have not been answered - yet. Example: what will happen to the 2 x LGA
slots when DEN
is reduced to 2 x daily?
Frontier may just give them up, but the slots were a tad difficult to get, so that would seem odd, too. They may assign them to a new city - but can they assign them to a new city? (I am NOT suggesting LIT
So - it's difficult to see the big picture.
Specifically, though: LIT
is the only new (Frontier) city that is advertising fares to Mexico as part of the introductory deals. Again, this suggests to me that Frontier has information that I don't have.
Then again, who would have guessed that BNA
(even or especially against UAL) would do so well right out of the gate?
I note also that many (most) DEN
flights are already close to full for the last two weeks of November and half of December. There may be a greater population at BNA
, but bigger cities than BNA
are not yet showing this level of strong advance booking - except Mexico and Florida.
Which raises the next puzzle - and you have I have crossed swords on this before - how will they get the A319 to BNA
for the CUN
Answer: we don't know. Or I don't. Yet.
: I have long hoped that Frontier would start DEN
. I have to assume that they haven't because they know rather more about the market than I do.
gets an upgrade of equipment in the Fall schedule. And - from somewhere - will have to have the A319 for AUS
: This was a surprise to me. As I said, I had thought it was doing okay. I don't know why they've dropped it, but, then again, DEN
is a Ted route - and Ted has been trashing fares to keep the load factors up. However well ONT
may have been doing, perhaps the economics of the RJ
don't work is this lowered fare environment.
: Maybe you wouldn't have picked MEM
, but it was in your list of cities preferable to LIT
. I'd avoid it like the plague.
: for whatever reason, the Bay area is not especially strong for Frontier. SJC
is very good, but SFO
is less so. Maybe because of UAL flying hub to hub SFO
For personal reasons, I'd like to see Frontier return to OAK
. Then again, since there are only nine aircraft in the Express fleet, they can't fly everywhere.
: I agree. But it came back as mainline, not express. I also suspect that STL
is also part of a larger picture that we can't yet see. STL
suggests this, as well as comments in the DOT submissions for STL
General: I checked the government stats. The average fare paid for round trip LIT
(for the last available period) was $418. This compares with BNA
at $407 and OKC
Lastly: "Much of a muchness"? An old English term, meaning "much the same." Similar to the PNG Pidgin: "all the same belong different."