scotron11
Posts: 1181
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 4:54 pm

Future Non-stops

Fri Jul 09, 2004 3:28 pm

Twenty-five years ago I flew on PA801 JFK-NRT which I believe, at that time, was the longest non-stop sector. The equipment was a 747SP.

Boeing then produced the 743 which enabled all airlines on the JFK-NRT run to offer non-stop service. In Europe, on the Australia run, it was normal to have 2-3 stops. Eventually with the 743 and the 744 these flights became one-stops. Now we have the A345 SIN-LAX & SIN-EWR non-stops.

My question is: All this has taken place over the last 25 years. What is the future of long-haul non-stops? I know Boeing will produce the 777LR but what do you think will be the replacement and aircraft flying non-stop NYC-SYD and LON-SYD? It surely has to happen.
 
moby
Posts: 11
Joined: Fri Jun 04, 2004 3:05 am

RE: Future Non-stops

Fri Jul 09, 2004 8:30 pm

My wild guess is that this can happen, as you know airliners are operating in a most cost efficient way, so if it's sure they can have the flight non stop Europe-Australia full for 80% they will do it, otherwise they will operate their schedules just as they do now.
Stop in SIN loads of people out and loads of new pax in.. It's all a matter of money.


But hey what do you prefer have a stop over and be able to wlak around the airport a little or sit another somany hours in a metal tube.
 
scotron11
Posts: 1181
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 4:54 pm

RE: Future Non-stops

Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:06 pm

It was an article in the NY Times in which the correspondent flew EWR-SIN via AMS (Was not overly impressed with the 3 hour layover) and then the non-stop back to NYC. Much preferred the non-stop as he was able to sleep for 13 hours!
 
hz747300
Posts: 1906
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 11:38 pm

RE: Future Non-stops

Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:14 pm

Slept for 13 hours!?! There must have been sleep enhancers used, probably alcohol.

Does Qantas fly to NYC via LAX on a code-share, or on its own jet? There is a Qantas sign at the JFK check-in but I never have seen a Qantas jet. I would think that the loads would have to be high for those flights, and that a SYD-NYC run would be profitable. Certainly, once in place it would create its own market.
Keep on truckin'...
 
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Starlionblue
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Joined: Fri Feb 27, 2004 9:54 pm

RE: Future Non-stops

Fri Jul 09, 2004 9:31 pm

Remember that the longer the route the smaller the market, but conversely the longer the route the more expensive the development (and sticker price) of the plane.

Same problem as with larger aircraft. The larger the aircraft the smaller the market, but the larger the aircraft the more expensive the development (and sticker price) of the plane.

We will eventually see LHR-SYD and all those non-stop, but the question is how long it will take.
"There are no stupid questions, but there are a lot of inquisitive idiots." - John Ringo
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 1:00 am

Does Qantas fly to NYC via LAX on a code-share, or on its own jet?

QF does offer its own metal to JFK.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
texdravid
Posts: 1394
Joined: Fri May 14, 2004 3:21 pm

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 4:32 am

Here's hoping for India-U.S. nonstop flights.

I hate stopping in LHR or Frankfurt. It's better to just keep going and going until you reach your destination.

Tort reform now. Throw lawyers in jail later.
 
ConcordeBoy
Posts: 16852
Joined: Thu Feb 01, 2001 8:04 am

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 5:30 am

Here's hoping for India-U.S. nonstop flights.

Dont get your hopes up any time soon:



AI sure as heck wouldn't be the pioneer.

CO has proposed a nonstop for the umpteenth time, only to back down again.... similar for UA.

DL already flies there 1stop, but lacks suitable aircraft to completely the route. Ditto AA.

US... ha!

NW could launch a nonstop, but why bother at this point?

Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
CPH-R
Posts: 6058
Joined: Thu May 03, 2001 5:19 pm

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 7:10 am

.. so for now you'll have to settle for AC's YYZ-DEL flight (which I believe is still running).

And the article previously mentioned can be found here:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/06/business/06road.html

If you don't want to sign up, use http://www.bugmenot.com

[Edited 2004-07-10 00:12:19]
 
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ERJ170
Posts: 5467
Joined: Thu Apr 15, 2004 11:15 am

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 7:13 am

Any non-stops to Vietnam from the US? I hear Vietnam is on the virge of an economic boost, and the supposed new "it" market.
Aiming High and going far..
 
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Buyantukhaa
Posts: 2288
Joined: Thu May 13, 2004 5:33 am

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 9:39 am

There's a lot of non-stop flights that are currently possible to fly with the aircraft available on today's market, but are not offered simply because they wouldn't be profitable. One can obviously think of many examples.

On the other hand, there are a few non-stop flights that cannot be offered by today's aircraft, but that would (probably) be profitable if and when technology is able to deliver. There aren't that many city pairs that would justify the development of a new aircraft with a range even bigger than the A340-500 (and soon the 777LR) - let's face it, with these planes you can already cover almost the entire world. But let's think, which would those city pairs be?

LHR-SYD: certainly
LHR-AKL: possibly
NYC-SYD: likely
JNB-LAX: perhaps

Most of these are Australia-related. Most other places on the planet can already cover any destination with today's planes, and certainly any commercially interesting destination.

There might be more cash-cows that I haven't thought of. But it's a niche market, as the A340-500 and the 777LR already are.

And there's of course the shorter flights you can operate with less weight restrictions. That might actually be a better argument than those ultra-longhaul flights.
I scratch my head, therefore I am.
 
leo777
Posts: 109
Joined: Tue Apr 20, 2004 2:09 pm

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:40 pm

A possible long haul flight in the future might also be ORD-JNB.
Others:
ORD-MEL
ORD-BKK
ORD-SYD
There is also a sign at ORD that reads Qantas but if I am correct that is on codeshare with AA.
ORD-SIN could possibly open up again as the demand increases between both cities.
You got to be careful if you don't know where you're going, because you might not get there.
 
Arcano
Posts: 2299
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2004 4:34 am

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 2:52 pm

This would be beautiful:

SCL-NRT
or
SCL-PEK
in order: 721,146,732,763,722,343,733,320,772,319,752,321,88,83,744,332,100,738, 333, 318, 77W, 78, 773, 380, 73G, 788, 789, 346
 
malb777
Posts: 443
Joined: Thu Jul 08, 2004 5:53 pm

RE: Future Non-stops

Sat Jul 10, 2004 3:32 pm

Not to keen on the nonstops my self. I remember my first flight to Australia back in 1974, London, Frankfurt,Bahrain,Kuala Lumpur,Singapore,Sydney Melbourne. on a QF 742.Took a long time but at least we could walk around airports stretch out, Last flight to UK was Brisbane ,Bangkok ,London return, on TG 777 & 7474 Quicker but I think I suffered jetlag more on this flight than before. Either that or I am just getting older
thank god i was not born a bird. this type of flying is much better

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