Horus
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Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:56 am

So far 4 carriers from Asia, Europe and Australasia/Oceania have ordered the brand new Boeing airliner, yet not one US carrier has ordered it. Know I understand most, if not all, are not in the finanacial situation to order these $125 million jets but most will inevitabely have to order the aircraft to replace their ageing 767s. Have any US majors made any 'definite' plans for the Dreamliner?

Horus



[Edited 2004-07-31 02:58:32]
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JoFMO
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:04 am

They all would like it, but all of the legacies have not enough money or fear the risk to invest in new big planes.
 
Cory6188
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:08 am

Gordon Bethune of CO publicly stated that the 7E7 would be "a perfect fit" into CO's fleet, but they were unable to financially support any type of purchase at the time. This is still the case for CO and all of the other majors; no one is placing any orders at the moment. Also, at least in CO's case, their 767s are very new (by far the youngest 767 fleet out of all the Big Six), with PTVs at every seat in all classes, and the 777-style interior on the 764 as well as the 762. As a pax that has been on a CO 762, they are very nice inside. Even my mom, who could care less about airplanes as long as they get her from A to B safely (she wouldn't care if she were on CO, WN, or FR), made a comment about how nice and new the interior looked.
 
wgw2707
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:09 am

I am hoping a US carrier will order the 7E7 soon. For sure they want it...right now they're looking at an increasingly ageing fleet of 757s and 767s for which the 7E7 could be a useful replacement.

Perhaps if a leasing company is able to order some from the start and work out leasing arrangements with some of the US network carriers...

-WGW2707
 
JetMechMD80
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:13 am

How do we no that someone in the US hasn't ordered any yet?  Smile
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:16 am

Well most likely financial state.
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yul332LX
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:17 am

It is inevitable but US airlines just don't feel the urge right now.

As efficient as the 7E7 might be in the future, a 10-15 years old 767 or 757 will still be less expensive to operate overall (including acquisition cost) than a 7E7.

So, no need to hurry!
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MidnightMike
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:28 am

The US Carriers fleets are either new or not ready to be replaced. Delta & Continental
have a brand new fleet of 767-400's, the 777 is pretty young, never know what is going
to take place at NorthWest.
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bjg231
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 10:47 am

Despite their current financial situation, I think AA will be the first to order the 7e7. CO and DL both have an eventual need for the aircraft, but they are in no hurry. AA has both 767s and A300s that will have an eventual need of replacing. Compounding on this is the disposal of the airbi in 2008-12 due to their leases expiring, and the incoming 777s proving to be too large to replace the 767 and 300 routes. Consequently, unless AA wants to suffer a drop in capacity or an oversaturation of capacity with 777 allocation, they will need to order an aircraft that fits into its system, the 7e7.

With their improving revenue, a 7e7 order could be a possibility within the next 12-24 months.
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iowa744fan
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 12:08 pm

Plus, many of the 757s in service with the legacy carriers are not that old. The oldest 757s in UA's and AA's fleets were delivered in 1989. So, although the oldest ones are 15 years old, a large proportion of their fleets are quite young...many only a couple of years old. Same with CO...they did not receive their first 757 until 1994...plus they have had quite a few delivered recently. DL and NW have operated the 757 for slightly longer, but both have also taken delivery of many aircraft in recent years. Granted, the majority of US's aircraft are the older ex-Eastern aircraft. However, the plane is still an efficient model, and many in operation are still quite young (everything from line number 257 on was delivered in the 90s or later). As YUL332LX stated, it is still cheaper in the short run to operate older 757s and 767s than buying new 7E7s. I am not saying that the 7E7 is a bad investment (quite the contrary), I am just saying that while these carriers are short on cash, it will be cheaper to hold off on a purchase.
 
A330323X
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 12:13 pm

Granted, the majority of US's aircraft are the older ex-Eastern aircraft.

No, they're not.

US Airways has 10 ex-Eastern B757-225 aircraft, delivered between 1982 and 1984.

US Airways has 21 B757-2B7 aircraft delivered new to USAir between 1993 and 1995.

Do the math.
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N317AS
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 12:24 pm

"How do we no that someone in the US hasn't ordered any yet?"

If anyone new it would be the throng of a-netters. Any time I hear of anything aviation happening, I go to this site to verify it.
Besides that, I work at Boeing and no US carrier has ordered any.
I agree with BJG231, I think AA will be the first.
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soaringadi
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 12:32 pm

Do you think that any of the airlines are in a position of acquiring any new planes ? The only airlines doing well right now are lcc's like wn etc. and these guys are not going to buy any new planes ( I mean planes like the 7e7).

 Smile
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panam330
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 1:35 pm

Look at it this way: AA has 36 (or 35, now?) Airbus A300-605Rs. Obviously, AA would like a simplified fleet, as evident of the removal of the 727 a couple of years back, and the Fokker F100 just recently (I think they've still got some, but they're on the way out). They'd prefer Boeing, due to their odd relationship with Airbus after the NYC crash back in 2001. However, the A300 is an absolute cash cow for the airline- it has the most seats out of any aircraft in the fleet. It's a high-density aircraft used almost exclusively out of JFK and MIA to the Caribbean. However, the leases start to expire in 2008, conveniently around the time the 7E7 debuts. The A300's main reason for being in AAs fleet, however, is the gigantic cargo market between NYC and MIA and the Caribbean. AA couldn't replace their A300s with a 767. The 767 is just not a good fit for cargo. The 7E7, on the other hand, is.
Look for an AA 7E7 order in 2008 (possibly earlier), when (most likely) they'll have a favorable bank balance, and their 'Buses are on the way out. I'd say they'll be the first US airline to start replacing/supplementing their 767s with the short-range 7E7, for the great cargo and passenger capabilities, and they don't need the range.

In short, AA will be the first.
 
greatansett
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 3:27 pm

Maybe the airlines don't see the 7E7 as such a great aircraft? or they are waiting to see what Airbus is going to produce. Just a thought.......


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Qantasclub
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 3:50 pm

Easy: They're broke. It's as simple as that. Certainly the majors who fly internationally are, anyway.
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nudelhirsch
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 4:22 pm

While they are all in a bad shape I can see 2-3 small orders in the near future, maybe AA, CO, NW, to catch a good deal Boeing might finally be offering to them if they catch on selling deals...


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nudelhirsch
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 4:24 pm

While they are all in a bad shape I can see 2-3 small orders in the near future, maybe AA, CO, NW, to catch a good deal Boeing might finally be offering to them if they catch on selling deals...


Putana da Seatbeltz!
 
Dalmd88
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 5:59 pm

I think some US carriers have signed Letters of Intent to purchase the 7E7. Boeing says it has letters from close to fifty airlines I think I read. Many of these are not made public for many reasons. By next year we should see firm orders from US airlines.
 
AirframeAS
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 9:33 pm

...yet not one US carrier has ordered it.

As the common saying goes: "With what money, we dont have any money?!"
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Horus
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 11:31 pm

Would Southwest ever consider the 7E7?

Horus

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HlywdCatft
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 11:42 pm

I think the 7E7 will have a slow start at first, but then sell like hotcakes sort of like the 757 did in the 80s. ANA and the others that order before the production date will be the guinea pigs, then once it proves successful several will jump on the band wagon

Remember AA in another thread announced that they are going to start retiring their A300s in 2008, oddly the same year that the 7E7 is supposed to start being delivered. As of right now, the 7E7 is the only Boeing that can carry the same amount of passengers and freight on the Carribean routes that the A300 can (yes the 777 can too, but its too big for those routes). I wouldn't be surprised if AA ordered 35 in the next year or so, then once AA seemed to be in good financial shape started later replacing 767-300s with them. Then use the smaller 7E7 to replace 757s around 2012 or so.

Delta: Yes would be an ideal 7E7 customer to replace the 767-300s which some are some of the oldest. Wasnt Delta the launch customer for the 300 back in the late 80s? I know some of the other 300s are barely 5 years old, but by the time the 7E7 comes out the some of the 300s will be over 20 years old. Delta could also buy the smaller version for its 757s in which some will be about 25 years old by then. I don't see Delta making any moves though until this financial crisis ends. If they get the right management though and turn the airline around like Bethune and Brenamen did for Continental within a year and a half after they took over, they started making new plane orders shortly after that. If Delta gets the right person in, I could see maybe an order within a couple of years.

United: Another possible customer to replace 757s and 767s once they get out of their troubles.

Northwest: I doubt, but there have been a lot of rumors about Boeing offering NW deals by trading in their A330s for 7E7s. I don't see the point of that. I think Northwest instead should order the smaller 7E7 for 757 replacement in which some of those are getting to be around 20 years old. Northwest will probably fly the 757 as long as the DC-9 though.

USAirways: No way, they are Airbus all the way.

Continental: Bethune likes them, but what is the point when he has the newest fleet of all the legacy carriers, unless he has a lot of money to blow which he doesn't. Continental will eventually order the 7E7, but most likely not before it is already in service. Continental will probably start taking deliveries around 2012 or so if they order.


The LCCs

Southwest: HAHAHAHA ( they would really need a total change in management to do such a thing)

Jet Blue: Just as funny

Air Tran: Well now it is obvious that they are no longer going for a single fleet type like Southwest. I highly doubt it ever happening, but it definitely is more possible than Southwest. They definitely could fill one between Northeast and MCO. But there is only about a 5% chance they would order one, but that is 5 better than WN

ATA: The most likely of the LCCs, although they can't afford it. It would be a good replacement for the L1011. I don't think a lot of people are comfortable flying a narrow body overseas like the 757-300. This would be better for military charters since it can carry more pax, more cargo and fly much furthur than the 757-300. ATA needs to get out of their financial problems, but they could perhaps lease about 5 for the purpose of military charters.

Alaska: I don't think that Alaska one day ordering a few would be such a wacky thought. Ten years ago who thought that Alaska Airlines would fly to Orlando and Miami? Those planes come in full too. Alaska would be a late orderer if they did.

Frontier: No

Independence: No and they probably wont be around long enough to see their full Airbus order

Transmeridean: Maybe about 5 some day later on.



 
Horus
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sat Jul 31, 2004 11:46 pm

Well considering Boeing claimed they would sell 500 7E7s before first flight, an order by a US carrier should/could be expected 'soon'.

Horus

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boeingbus
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RE: Air Luxor L-1011 3rd Aborted T/O At AMS Just N

Sun Aug 01, 2004 12:02 am

Look folks, there are 24 unannounced airlines who supposedly have deposits on the first 2.5 years of prodction slots, which is about 200... Np one knows who they are and very well could be American carriers.

A lot of US airlines would like to have further wage concessions from their unions. so these very same airlines can't announce new expeditures during this period, would defeat the purpose on getting labor and wage cuts...

I believe AA will be the most likely US launch customer to replace their Airbus fleet.
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SafetyDude
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 12:35 am

never know what is going to take place at NorthWest.
In another topic, apparently NWA is very interested in the 7E7, mostly to expand service to Asia.

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NorCalSF
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 12:42 am

UA won't be ordering this plane, or any other for that matter, for a long time.
 
ua777222
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 12:54 am

It's very very risky to buy a new airliner in bulk. They're not just going to buy 2-3 to start out with b/c it's an entire new a/c and needs to become a money making a/c and not just a "test". I think the safest bet for the US industry concerning the 7E7 would be to let their success with the a/c lie with that of the failure or success of the a/c with other airlines operating the a/c on the same routes or class as the desired airline.

Just my 2¢

Thanks again!

UA777222
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JZ
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 1:20 am

I agree that AA is the mostly likely to order 7E7 in the next few years, followed by CO. Thanks to HlywdCatft for the detailed analysis.
 
Ken777
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 1:28 am

AA's existing contract with Boeing would appear to make it easier for them to get slots for the 7E7 by swapping other models for them. They have to get planes under the contract and would probably prefer some 7E7s over 777s or 737s. It's in Boeings interest to accommodate them to a reasonable level.

If this works then AA would be the first, simply because it doesn't entail additional orders.
 
f4f3a
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 3:03 am

I think US airlines are consolidating what they have right now. An aircraft which is already paid for is more likely to reduce costs than splashing out on new ones.

Boeing claims to have these orders but so far they have scraped together launch customers. Appart from ANA, who ordered it because part of 7e7 will be built in japan (ie political). Other than them Air NZ and First choice dont sound like youre traditional launch customers.

UA launch for 777 etc you expect big names.

I think airlines are wary of 7e7 until it takes its final format. For ex 2 years ago boeing was pushing the sonic cruiser. I think until Boeing test this new ac US carriers will stick with 767s 777s.
 
CXA330300
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 5:14 am

Highly unlikely that anyone from the US but AA and NW are interested. UA is practically one misstep away from insolvency, US is Airbus already, CO and DL have very young planes, so they're not likely either.
What about HP? Some of their 757s are beginning to age, and the A321 doesn't have as good LR performance- I could easily see a HP B7E7-3.
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 7:02 am

I don't think a lot of people are comfortable flying a narrow body overseas like the 757-300.

Bullshit. End of story.



Highly unlikely that anyone from the US but AA and NW are interested.

So the airline with the world's largest 767 fleet isnt interested in its replacement... riiiiight  Big grin
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dutchjet
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RE: Why Haven't Any US Carriers Ordered The 7E7?

Sun Aug 01, 2004 8:24 am

So many members here seem to forget that a new fleet of airliners costs hundreds and hundreds of millions of dollars, regardless of whether an aircraft is leased, financed or directly purchased, it must be paid for. US carriers simply dont have the cash at the moment, and their access to financing is rather limited by the airlines respective financial condition. While a couple of US legacy carriers finally managed a very small profit in the past quarters, none have been consistently profitable and none of the profits produced have been signifcant. The traidtional US carriers have lost billions in the past couple of years, and it will take years for them to fully recover.....although traffic has recovered, yields are still very poor and high fuel prices (that seem unwilling to go down) continue to impact bottom line results...... in addition, all of the legacy carriers have huge labor issues to deal with in the near-term future as somehow they must continue to reduce costs, and the unfunded pension issues are still out there.

Thus, the last thing most US carriers have on their mind is committing to a new fleet of aircraft at this moment. In the future, when financial conditions improve (and they will, none of the airlines have any intention of going out of business - one carrier [you decide which] may not make it, but the remaining carriers will survive and prosper again) US carriers will order the 7e7 in big numbers, as the type is likely to replace over the long term most A300s, 767s, and some 757s now in service in the US.

To answer the original question - US carriers have not yet ordered the 7e7 because they simply cannot afford it at the moment.