ATW online's top 20 airlines ranked by RPK's(http://www.atwonline.com/stats_top25.cfm) help explain the relative dearth of orders for Boeing as compared to Airbus over the last couple of years.
It can be generally be concluded that the more RPK's the larger the fleet for a particular airline. For example, AA
, with the most RPK's operates the worlds largest fleet.
When adding the RPK's of all airlines that are LARGELY Boeing customers (AA, Delta, Continental, BA
, SWest, Signapore, Cathay, Japan, Korean, Alaska and China air, and for simplicity 50% of United) total RPK's is 430 million. Of this total, 262 RPK's are represented by airlines that are VERY unlikely to stray from the Boeing camp! (AA
,DL,Continental and SWest)
The same calculation for LARGELY Airbus operators (NW,LH,AF,USair, Emirates, AWest,IB, SAS and 50% of UA
) yield a total of 248 Million RPK's.
Even the disappearance of one US legacy carrier would not change the relative potential advantage Boeing has.
Barring unforeseen circumstances, it is safe to argue that a sales surge for Boeing will occur once the financial health of its customer airlines improves, and/or fleets reach replacement age....
[Edited 2004-08-06 04:10:07]
[Edited 2004-08-06 04:11:26]