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How Much Do We Really Know?

Sun Aug 15, 2004 5:37 pm

(This goes out to the majority of people, not all, much the majority, including myself)

I just got done reading the " US Airways could be bankrupt in a few weeks" thread and some of the replies got me thinking. What do we really know when it comes to aviation.

Sure we all know the facts, how many seats are in a BA 744, the different engines of a 777 and how much thrust it produces. We could tell you when the first A300 flew and who flies the A330. But that is the easy stuff. What I am talking about is the whole "process" within the airlines. What is really happening every day, not what you can see from outside, but what you can see from the inside. What I am going to write about is the thoughts I have come up with over various subjects, all of which relate.
First subject -Employee's at stuggling carriers-

(I am going to use the ever so familiar airline of US Airways as an example.)

With all the recent news about US, many of you are saying how they need to stop being babies and take pay cuts for the better good of their airline, particularly the pilots. I must admit, every time I read this I get very mad. You guys talk as if they have done nothing and are just watching their plane go into a nosedive. Let me tell you people they are NOT acting this way. They have taken more sacrifices than can be imagined. How would you like it if your boss comes up to you and say they need to cut you $10 an hour salary to $8 to survive, then come back a little later and say it needs to be cut to $6, then comes back AGAIN to say they need even more, and all of a sudden your salary is down to $4 an hour, plus you have to work an extra 100 hours a month, with reduced heath benefits, and very little sick and vacation time. HOW WOULD YOU FEEL. You would be mad too. You wouldn't want to take another pay cut. ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. If you have a deadly infection in your leg, and you had to cut it off, you would do it. But the infection goes into the other leg, and you cut it off also. BUT, the infection is now in both your arms. After much thinking you hesitantly cut them off. Sure your not as good as you were when you were healthy, but hey, your surviving. But what if that infection got into your head, you wouldn't got it off, would you. Sure you stopped the infection, but you destroyed yourself.

The morale of the story is enough is enough. US employee's have taken major cutbacks, and there comes a time when they must stop. They cannot destroy their lives if they are about to reach a breaking point. If they come to that point they must say no and start praying the company does all right. They are in a very fragile situation, and they don't need a bunch aviation know-it-all's who are not in their shoes telling them what to do.

Some of you also say they should go find other jobs if they are not happy with their pay. But it is much more complicated than that. First of all, there are no respectable flying jobs out there. Second of all, you can't work at an airline for 15 years and just walk away, you are leaving everything you worked hard for behind.
Second subject -Too much airlines-

We all know there is too much airlines flying today, but what I don't get is why people are wanting the legacy carries to fail, but are happy and encouraging start-ups to be successful. I just don't get that. Some of these carriers have been flying for over 60 years, and you are telling me that they don't deserve to stay, that Jetblue should fly while US Airways rots. What is up with that. Jetblue hasn't even proven itself. Sure they are making money now, but so was PeopleExpress, and we all know what happen to them.

You also should say its a free-market, that the strongest should survive. I agree with that, but you can't count somebody out when they stumble. It's like saying a hockey player who has played for 20 years without winning a Stanley cup should just retire because he can never win it. But I know somebody who did it.
Third subject -The Future

This is my prediction of what it is going to be like in 10 years:
(Inspired by somebody who knows his stuff)

There will be 6 major airlines: 3 big domestic airlines (southwest, AirTran, America West type airlines) and 3 big international airlines (American, United, Delta type airlines). Who those airlines are going to be, God only knows. The pay at these airlines will be about the same, much lower than the TWA and Pan Am days that's for sure. The industry, which is currently in a transition stage right now, will be figured out and there will be stability. Pilots will not be a glamour job anymore, with those who take that career path will only do it because of their love of flying, much like I will be doing. So it just depends what kind of flying you will want to be doing and that will be how you pick what airline to fly for.

That's all I am going to write right now. (School starts on Monday and its already 3:30am so I need my sleep.)

Please comment: agree or argue, I want to know your responses.

Cheers to US Airways: That the flag may fly forever!

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Non Illegitimi Carborundum
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RE: How Much Do We Really Know?

Sun Aug 15, 2004 5:47 pm

Great post. I agree for the most part.
Alas poor Western, I knew them well!
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Joined: Sat Feb 28, 2004 1:32 am

RE: How Much Do We Really Know?

Sun Aug 15, 2004 7:12 pm

Well my first point is this: If your not in the industry then you really have no business commenting on issues like pay cuts and such so to air on the side of being blunt: stay out of things that do not concern you!

In the case of US Airways ALPA's own study concluded that the airline is on the edge of bankruptcy yet again:

So take the pay cut or not? Since I don't work for US Airways it is hard to say but I will say this. Chapter 7 is not like being furloughed it is final and those employees that you are rallying to not take a cut will be out on the street with nothing. So when ALPA's own report says the airline is doing bad then I for on would believe it. With fuel prices heading upward and forecast to exceed 55 dollars a barrel I would assume that all of us in the industry have long term concerns and uncertainties. To that I add that with an average increased operating cost of one million a year for every dollar increase of a barrel of oil then yes, while it would suck to take a pay cut short term, I would rather have a job in ten years than have to look for a new career tomorrow.
Please oh please Mr Moderator Nazi, dont delete my thread.
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RE: How Much Do We Really Know?

Sun Aug 15, 2004 7:45 pm

I just got done reading the " US Airways could be bankrupt in a few weeks" thread and some of the replies got me thinking. What do we really know when it comes to aviation.

If we all knew it all then this message board would cease to exist, we wouldn't need to discuss anything.

Even the people working within an airline don't know it all. Australia had their 2nd biggest airline collapse overnight and most of the people working for Ansett didn't know it was going to collapse.

My theory, US Airways won't be around long term, but short term yes, It tooks years and years of losses for airlines like Eastern and PANAM to go out of business.

Why fly non stop when you can connect

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