Joni
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BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Tue Sep 14, 2004 4:29 pm

 
Joni
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:39 pm


On Airbus' response to 7e7:

"The more Airbus can get airlines wondering what its next move will be, the more the airlines are likely to delay a decision on ordering the 7E7, says Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace consultant with Teal Group in Fairfax, Va. "

...

"Alas for Boeing, the psychological warfare may be working. No major carrier has announced an order for the 7E7 since last spring when Japan's All Nippon Airways Co. (ALNPY ) ordered 50."

...

"many industry watchers were surprised when Boeing failed to land any 7E7 orders at the Farnborough Air Show in Britain in July. Then on Aug. 25, Singapore Airlines Ltd. delayed indefinitely a decision on ordering the 7E7 or the A330. "


 
planelymad
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Tue Sep 14, 2004 7:52 pm

There is some useful analysis on the 7E7 vs A330 markets which - unlike many posts in this forum - has some factual information behind it - at the following link:

http://www.planemarkets.com/mainlinejets.htm

Read it and make up your own minds who will win out.

It seems difficult to see Airbus introducing an interim aircraft in the form of an updated A330-200 when the current aircraft is selling well, and they have made a living out of being innovators (a position which Boeing is challenging with both the 777-300ER and the 7E7). With a little more time could produce something truly competitive to the 7E7. They'll have to do it at some point anyway to remain competitive with their future product range. I think they'll tough it out until they get something very juicy and meanwhile as Aboulafia says, they'll play the marketing game which they are expert at.
 
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solnabo
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Tue Sep 14, 2004 8:04 pm

If Boeing 7e7 orders are to be 200 before years end, they better hurry  Big grin

Micke/SE Big grin
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FriendlySkies
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Tue Sep 14, 2004 9:49 pm

What ever happened to the 60 frames China was going to order 3 months ago? Airlines shouldn't wait around for Airbus, they can't make anything better right now, look at all the new technology in the 7E7! If anything, it would be a similar model, or another A330 redesign...not meant to bash Airbus, but they already have other designs being engineered, and I don't see them building from scratch.
 
col
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:19 pm

Customer confidence may also be playing a part. Airbus have delivered more on their promises recently, while Boeing has not been decisive enough. The 777 and its developments have helped, but is it enough to build back confidence?
 
Airbus Lover
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Wed Sep 15, 2004 7:47 am

FriendlySkies.

Sometimes with 'promising' too many new technologies? How do we know they are well tested and going to work well. It could delay EIS by significant time frame should any technology issues arise. It's not always good to have "all the new technology in the 7E7".

Having said that, I do think the 7E7 will have a bright future.
 
FriendlySkies
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:33 am

Airbus_Lover:

I'm not saying they are proven technologies. However, I am saying that Airbus probably couldn't do any better than the 7E7. It works both ways, neither company will be able to come up with a break-through technology that the other won't be able to match in the short run. However, based on Boeing's history, I am confident that all of the promises Boeing has made will be kept. Guess we'll all find out in '08!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:44 am

From the article-

But will this idea ever fly? A reworked A330 might cost a little less than the 7E7's $120 million list price, but almost certainly couldn't match the fuel savings and operating efficiencies that are the Boeing plane's key selling points.

We witnessed this effect with the 777. The 777 carried a significantly higher aquistion price, which has scared many customers away, but the vast majority have been more than willing to pay for the 777s killer performance.

Why would the 7E7 be any different?

"Alas for Boeing, the psychological warfare may be working. No major carrier has announced an order for the 7E7 since last spring when Japan's All Nippon Airways Co. (ALNPY ) ordered 50."

For now, Boeing likely has all of the 2008 delivery slots filled, just with the 2 firm orders/1 pending order and likely deposits on slot garuntees. With 2009 5 years away, Boeing has pleanty of time to fill these order slots.

What is important is the interest in the 7E7. There is hardly an airline in the world that has rejected the 7E7 or failed to say something positive about it, more than any Sonic Cruiser, 747-X, even A380 can say. There is interest, there is need, there just isn't the willingness to buy a major new fleet type yet.

Think of AA and CO alone, two major U.S. carriers who between them could order 150 once they are financially stable.... a state they will likely reach before 2008.

What ever happened to the 60 frames China was going to order 3 months ago?

China orders are only surpassed in beuracracy by India.... the next order will likely be either VN (80% likely IMO) or NW/KLM/Skyteam (40% likely IMO).
 
DC10GUY
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:00 am

One thing is for sure, Boeing will do anything to keep from having to compete. Competition is something Boeing doesn't understand.
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
planemaker
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Wed Sep 15, 2004 9:26 am

"Think of AA and CO alone, two major U.S. carriers who between them could order 150 once they are financially stable.... a state they will likely reach before 2008."

"...there just isn't the willingness to buy a major new fleet type yet."


2009... 5 years from now is a long time and that is just one reason why I suspect that there hasn´t been any desire to sign orders. No one knows what will be the state of the industry in 4-5 years - and stable is not profitable. Indeed, there are just too many variables and uncertainties "to buy a major new fleet type... yet."
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Joni
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Wed Sep 15, 2004 5:27 pm


DfwRevolution,

That the 777 worked well despite its high price has nothing to do with whether the 7E7 will work well despite it's high price. They're simply different planes competing against different planes in different markets and for partly different customers.

 
Rj111
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:31 am

but the vast majority have been more than willing to pay for the 777s killer performance.

Which made me think...

Airliner operating/on order A343 = 26
Airlines operating/on order 772ER = 29

Hardly the "vast majority"

Although you could conclude that the larger airlines who are in a better position to choose quality over quantity, have done so.......or something like that.
 
keesje
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Fri Sep 17, 2004 5:15 am


The EU says $5.2 billion in such loans are now outstanding and Airbus has already repaid $6.5 billion.

Boeing's gripe is that the pact lets Airbus avoid repaying the loans in full if sales of the aircraft that is being financed fall short of forecasts. Airbus says that has never occurred.

Even so, Boeing contends the deal gives Airbus an advantage by lowering its commercial risk, making it easier to obtain financing.


So :

Airbus is repaying its loans, $6.5 Billion sofar.
It has not been subsidized when programs under sold, Boeing problem is more a theoretical one.

Some some users should slowly reread & inhale this several times ..

It´s not what Boeing made us believe & has been shouted around for years on this forum.

I don´t think the billions in benefits and tax breaks in the U.S. and in foreign countries will be repaid, will they ?

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Fri Sep 17, 2004 6:38 am

That the 777 worked well despite its high price has nothing to do with whether the 7E7 will work well despite it's high price. They're simply different planes competing against different planes in different markets and for partly different customers.

No, it has everything to do with this argument. Airbus is making two very dubious claims- A. The A350 will be cheaper to acquire than the 7E7, and B. The A350 will be "good enough" to compete with the 7E7.

Let's say Airbus delivers on claim A (a big stretch I might add) and manufacture the A350 for less than the 7E7. Since Airbus current plans for the 7E7 do not include matching or exceeding the 7E7, but rather closing the 7E7's gap, the price of the A350 immediately becomes irrelevant.

Large airlines who intend to fly 30-60+ of a single type can without even flinching fork over the extra money to acquire the 7E7. In large fleets that fly for nearly 2 decades, that one extra percent here and there adds up big time. However, for smaller fleets that intend to acquire maybe 5-10, this isn't as important as lower acquisition cost.

This is exactly why 29 airlines operate 500 777s and 26 airlines operate 280 A340.
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Fri Sep 17, 2004 12:09 pm

I still believe Airbus shouldn't rush and develop an all-new airplane with superior performance to 7E7. They are certainly capable of doing it. If the article says that the earliest it would fly would be 2011, then I think three extra years of wait is worth it. 777 flew 5 years after A340 and look where it is now...
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AvObserver
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Fri Sep 17, 2004 1:36 pm

"You might think Airbus would want to clear up the confusion -- but you'd be wrong. The more Airbus can get airlines wondering what its next move will be, the more the airlines are likely to delay a decision on ordering the 7E7, says Richard Aboulafia, an aerospace consultant with Teal Group in Fairfax, Va. "Their objective isn't to build a plane, it's to undermine the 7E7 business case," he says.

This tells us as much about the Airbus strategy as we need to know.
 
bigb
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Fri Sep 17, 2004 2:51 pm

777 flew 5 years after A340 and look where it is now

Thats funny because more 777s have be delivered than the A340. TOTAL.
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scbriml
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RE: BW: A Vs B Gets Ugly

Fri Sep 17, 2004 4:52 pm

Thats funny because more 777s have be delivered than the A340. TOTAL.

That was exactly his point! The second a/c on the scene has secured more orders.
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