pilotcoex
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3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:00 pm

Article on USAToday(money section, 09/23) describes the ongoing battle for China flights. AA, DL, and CO seem to be the front runners to service China from ORD, ATL, and EWR (respectably). Who will win? Who should win? Please correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't think there is direct service between the big apple and Shanghai or Beijing. Advantage, Continental.
 
JoFMO
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 9:44 pm

CO should win. ORD already has service to PEK and PVG and ATL as a little out of the way. I wonder why AA hasn't tried to DFW.

But we should not forget number 4 in this battle. Hawaiian has applied for HNL-PVG.
 
TokyoNarita
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:33 pm

I wonder what makes delta think ATL-PEK is better than JFK-PEK. ATL is a mega hub so it may do well but one would think JFK-PEK is more lucrative.

Just out of curiosity here are some distances from Great Circle Mapper.

ATL- PEK 7185 mi
ATL- NRT 6850 mi
JFK - PEK 6838 mi

ATL-PEK would add 335 miles to the current ATL-NRT.
Interesting.

TokyoNarita.
 
ord
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:39 pm

"I wonder what makes delta think ATL-PEK is better than JFK-PEK."

The connection opportunities. An ATL flight would offer one-connection service to the entire Southeast and a whole bunch of other cities.
 
bartond
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:40 pm

Agreed JoFMO. It seems to me like AA could tap into a possibly great route with a DFW-PEK or DFW-PVG route. They wouldn't be battling head to head with UA like they would in Chicago, even though that market is much larger than DFW. 60% of traffic that runs through DFW is connecting, so I'd imagine that people all over Texas and the south/southeast portions of the US could connect one-stop through DFW to China. Seems like a no-brainer to me but maybe ORD is AA's international focus hub at this point.
 
AA767400
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:40 pm

Being biased of course, but I think that AA should finally get their hands on more than just Narita. CO, has been getting many routes. Don't get me wrong, I love CO. They already fly HKG, too. And you are right, they should go for DFW-PEK,PVG. AA, can't do JFK-PVG,PEK, because of lack of feed at JFK. I know AA, did a test run on a 777, DFW-HKG. I wonder if DFW-PVG,PEK, would work, without payload restrictions?
"The low fares airline."
 
TokyoNarita
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:53 pm

The connection opportunities. An ATL flight would offer one-connection service to the entire Southeast and a whole bunch of other cities

I would tend to think the O&D both business and leisure feed from JFK..New York being the biggest financial district of the world..and also not to mention one of the biggest Asian population is the United States..far exceed the demand for the Southeast U.S. for China service. It would be too much to ignore. It wouldn't be convenient to back track south to ATL from the Northeast to go to China..what a waste of time that would be.

This is why CO would do well doing EWR-PEK..the business travellers would be there and also the connection feed is already there. I think NY is way overdue for China service by an American carrier.

TokyoNarita.


[Edited 2004-09-23 16:14:18]
 
LUV4JFK
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 23, 2004 10:59 pm

Well, if it's a battle for who doesn't have flights to China, Delta may win this one. Chicago already has flights to China with United and Air China flies from JFK. Atlanta has no service to China so I feel they are the most likely candidate to get the green light. If American were to put the flights through DFW, I think they might have a fighting chance for the rights.

LUV4JFK
 Big thumbs up
John F. Kennedy International Airport: Where America Greets The World.
 
pilotcoex
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:40 am

I think Delta is better off offering the service from JFK. I think Mr. Mineta would like direct service from the NY area to China.
 
panamair
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:46 am

A few years ago when extra flights came up for grabs, DL did apply to offer ATL-JFK-PEK-PVG service in addition to CVG-PEK/PVG service. From JFK, they stood a pretty good chance and did carry out aggressive lobbying efforts but alas, the route/frequency was awarded to UPS. That was when DL was also operating JFK-NRT. Now, their only transpac route is ATL-NRT so I think they would rather consolidate them at ATL first...
 
MAH4546
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:48 am

Despite UA already starting ORD-PVG, I really think AA will win for the 2005 slot. They are in the best financial state out of all the carriers, have the most resources available to fly the service and open up a new station. Also, AA is not competing with DL. Delta asked for slots in 2006. AA in 2005.
a.
 
N830MH
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 1:55 am

It is depending on Chinese government on their both airlines with CO & DL service to PEK & PVG. It is already service on UA service to CAN with via NRT.
 
zvezda
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:00 am

I think a competitive market would best be served if CO would win EWR-PVG.
 
JoFMO
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:02 am

What's about UA's request for flights to CAN? Do they have to compete with AA,DL,CO and HA or is it a separate question because they are already an designated USA-China carrier?
 
ord
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:03 am

"Also, AA is not competing with DL. Delta asked for slots in 2006. AA in 2005."

As MAH4546 mentions, this is the key point. Both AA and DL can get what they want since two new carriers can be granted access in the next two years.
 
mlsrar
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:21 am

With what equipment does DL plan on operating these routes with?

Are they going to dedicate their small handful of T7s to pacific services exclusively?

At least AA has the capacity and the equipment on hand.

I mean, for the right price I’ll fight a lion. - Mike Tyson
 
N830MH
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:26 am

DL is planning for service to PEK on the 777s aircraft and if DL is receiving with any chance on their new 777 aircraft.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:33 am

I hope DL get's it. They need it and they need somewhere to send all those 777 they were cancelling orders for. If they get the business, they can still keep the orders and have the eqiopment in time to commence service.
One Nation Under God
 
TokyoNarita
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 2:34 am

Are they going to dedicate their small handful of T7s to pacific services exclusively?

Not necessary dedicate them all..kind of a longshot but maybe able to keep ATL-CDG on a B777, and there is that MCO run/spare and the rest of B777s would be for the Pacific..why not consider some B764s to trans-atlantic routes. I would say it is do-able.

TokyoNarita.

[Edited 2004-09-23 19:56:38]
 
AA787
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 4:49 am

I would think an airline would want to start service to PEK so they could be entrenched for the 2008 olympics.

AA should push to also get an Asian Flight from JFK. PEK would work well and It would do incredibly well due to the new interest in China travel. Also the new terminal will at least be partly complete when these new routes begin.

Question:Are there only 2 slots available?

AA787
ET In NYC
 
Pbb152
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 12:10 pm

My 2 cents:

I believe CO gets the route(s) for one simple reason: why give the routes to AA from ORD where they will be competing with another U.S. carrier (UA) while the New York market is left with no service to mainland China by a U.S. airline? The New York area is just screaming for more nonstop service to mainland China (I believe Air China serves JFK nonstop from Beijing a few days a week, no) and one would think that the U.S. govt would love to have one of its flag carriers flying/competing on this/these routes.

As for this statement by MAH4546:

Despite UA already starting ORD-PVG, I really think AA will win for the 2005 slot. They are in the best financial state out of all the carriers, have the most resources available to fly the service and open up a new station.

Whether AA or CO is in better financial shape is really moot as neither is doing all that well and it would open a new station for CO as well. I do agree that AA has the most resources available (in terms of fleet availability), however this is also moot as CO would certainly be able to find the aircraft to fly these routes whether it be throught fleet/route reallocation, new aircraft purchases or aircraft leasing companies.


Pete

[Edited 2004-09-24 05:13:34]
 
pilotcoex
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Fri Sep 24, 2004 9:21 pm

25% of the world's population live in China, and there is no direct service to most of America. Why is this taking so long? Direct flights between China and Mexico City were approved more than three months ago. JFK, EWR, ORD, and MEX will do well to China.
 
B2443
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:04 am

Pilotcoex,
Well most of those 25% of world population have not even seen PEK or PVG yet...not to mention they don't need a 'visa' to visit their capital city whereas they would US and MX...
 
globaldude
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Sat Sep 25, 2004 12:17 pm

when is the DOT expected to decide?
 
DeltaRules
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Sat Sep 25, 2004 1:22 pm

why not consider some B764s to trans-atlantic routes. I would say it is do-able

I thought they weren't going to do this, one of the reasons being the difference in the first class cabin (B777 BizElite vs. B767-400's standard first). The 767-400s have the range, though- I agree that it'd be doable.

DeltaRules
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COSPN
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Sun Sep 26, 2004 12:44 am

Didn't DL pull out of SEL,BKK,TPE a Few Years ago ???

IS AA Still flying to TPE ???
 
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STT757
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Sun Sep 26, 2004 1:09 am

The Government is awarding routes for Spring '05 and Spring '06, since DL's application is for '06 we will leave them out of the first round which is between AA and CO.

For Spring '05 we have AA requesting ORD-Shanghai which competes vs a US Airline (UAL).

CO has applied for EWR-Beijing for spring '05, they will compete against a Chinese airline on that route.

I believe the Government will award CO the EWR-Beijing route because they want to establish a US carrier between NYC and mainland China, where as there already is an existing US carrier (in financial difficulties) flying between Chicago and both Beijing and Shanghai.

Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
chinaeastern
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Sun Sep 26, 2004 6:28 pm

i think the AA ORD-PVG route is far more attractive than the UA ORD-PVG as the current UA route is pretty much US-Shanghai and that's it while AA can do extensive code share with MU out of PVG to every corner of China. it will be good to see these two airlines working together as MU is now doing it vice versa from LAX
 
aa777jr
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Sun Sep 26, 2004 7:00 pm

AA will be in PEK within a year or so...my CFI is a senior captain and air check man at AA and told me AA next big step across the Pacific would be China.

AA777jr
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
COSPN
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:02 am

AA Should Try HKG or resume service to TPE make it work first ..Give the New route to CO who did all the work to fly the polar out of EWR to HKG,

I Think CO has paid it dues and deserves this one..
 
klwright69
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:19 am

I agree CO will be awarded the route for the simple reason others have stated: a stateside carrier competing with the Chinese carrier out of the NYC area is the best choice rather than two U.S. carriers competing on another route.

However I think AA's financial state is entirely irrelevant. Here is an anecdote to illustrate why. In the early 90's CO and UA were competing for rights to fly to Colombia. UA was vying for a MIA flight (back in the day when UA was a force to Latin America out of MIA). CO was in a dire situation financially. Yet they were awarded Colombia rights (UA has never served the Colombian market, I am not aware of them trying a second time). CO's situation as bad as it was, was something CO was able to overcome in the process with the strength of their case. Pretty amazing if you ask me.........
 
burnsie28
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:33 am

If your talking all of the major US carriers then no they are not:

NW is followed by CO.
 
aa777jr
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 4:47 am

Where does CO fly in the Orient right now? BKK PEK HKG SIN etc?

AA777jr
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:05 am

I thought they weren't going to do this, one of the reasons being the difference in the first class cabin (B777 BizElite vs. B767-400's standard first).

How tough do you think it would be for them to switch the seats (indeed, in the event they even chose to do so)... particularly seeing as each and every 764ER was delivered pre-wired for BizE  Big grin



IS AA Still flying to TPE ???

Nope



Where does CO fly in the Orient right now? BKK PEK HKG SIN etc?

Not counting Hawaii.... CO serves 22 destinations in the Asia/Pacific region with its own metal, more than any other USA carrier.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
ba319-131
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:17 am

Giving it to AA would be great.The codeshare with MU(as stated above) could connect all of the USA with all of China,and hasten MU's future entry into OneWorld,this will happen,just a case of when.
111,732,3,4,5,7,8,BBJ,741,742,743,744,752,762,763,764,772,77L,773,77W,L15,D10,30,40,AB3,AB6,A312.313,319,320,321,332,333
 
burnsie28
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 5:19 am

CO Serves (Actually CO Micronesia)
Sapporo, Japan
Sendai, Japan
Niigata, Japan
Tokyo, Japan (Also normal CO from New York Newark and Houston)
Nagoya, Japan
Okayama, Japan
Fukuoka, Japan
Taipei, Taiwan
Hong Kong, China (Also from New York Newark)
Manila, Philippines (From Saipan, Guam, and Palau)
Denpasar/Bali, Indonesia
Cairns, Australia
Palau (From Manila and Guam)
Yap (From Guam and Palau)
Chuuk (Truk)
Pohnpei (From/To Chuuk and Kasrae)
Kosrea (From/To Pohnpei and Kwajalein)
Kwanjalein (From/To Kosrae and Majuro)
Majuro (From/To Kwajalein/Honolulu)
 
COSPN
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:18 am

Wow Bunsie28 You know your stuff..Not to be Rude to AA or DL but Co Tries to stick to markets Except HNL-AKL/SYD/MEL/BNE..DL and AA Pull in and out of Asia NW will be here forever and CO has been in the Region mostly with AirMike for over 30 years but has added EWR-HKG,NRT-IAH,EWR..More DestiNATIONS than any other Airline in the World 119 International and 149 Domestic
 
JoFMO
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:55 am

Its a very ambivalent think with CO and Asia. From the North American mainland they only have three daily flights to two Asian destination. All the other flights are from Guam, which isn't in any use as a transfer point for any North American mainland passenger.
But it's a good move by them to ask for more flights from EWR to Asia and I hope they get the asked authorities. There are not a lot of Asian destinations served by American Carriers from New York area. UA flies JFK-NRT and AA too. But that's it I think. And there is no reason why only foreign carriers should serve New York. So go on CO and open up Asia for you.
 
blink182
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 6:58 am

Even if AA/DL/CO didn't get the China slots, why couldn't their Asian partners with US service merely expand it?

For example, MU already has rights to the United States, all they have to do is either continue from LAX, or start services to ORD and DFW and AA can codeshare(like they do out of LAX).

China Southern can add PEK/LAX-ATL/JFK and Delta can place their own flight number on China Southern's flights.

Is it this simple, or is it more complicated? I'd assume slots, politics, and aircraft range prevent this, but theoretically could this work?

blink
Give me a break, I created this username when I was a kid...
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 7:00 am

And there is no reason why only foreign carriers should serve New York. So go on CO and open up Asia for you.

Just wait until the 7E7 enters service.... it will rapidly open up many city pairs between North American and Asia. I'm willing to wager that AA, CO, UA will use 7E7s to open up the Asia market before replacing the bulk of their 767 fleets.
 
wgw2707
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 7:06 am

I think asking "who will win" is not the most relevant question in this case.

There are many cases where airlines secure relatively equal marketshare on given routes. There are other cases where marketshare shifts over time. Airlines that over-concentrate on marketshare alone also run the risk of doing stupid things that eat up profits. I don't think, ceteris paribus, the "who will win" analogy is helpful in this case.

At this time I'm more interested in who is going to have the most coverage of China and how profitable a market this will be for all of the airlines interested in serving it.

-WGW2707
 
chinaeastern
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 7:38 pm

Blink182:
MU don't actually have that many A340s to do US long hauls. and they're already doing more extensive code share with AA than anyone else. the A340s also need to be used on LHR, CDG, SYD, MEL routes as well as the lucrative PVG-HKG route sometimes. so it'd be better MU and AA both offer a trans pacific sector and cooperate on either side onwards
 
B2443
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Mon Sep 27, 2004 11:32 pm

Chinaeastern,

Would you describe what kind of code-share agreement there is between MU and AA? I believe in order to expand "codeshare", one needs to fly its partners hub, such as UA flying into PEK and AA PVG. But except for CA's PEK-SFO (via SHA), MU doesn't fly to AA's hub, neither does CZ to DL's hub. Everyone just likes to do LAX. I wonder how that would help their (US) partners sell their seats, or probably they have had no needs to...

Cheers
 
chinaeastern
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:41 am

B2443:
i know what you mean. the current agreement between MU and AA is that MU provides transpacific flights for AA while AA provides domestic flights for MU to various US cities from LAX. everyone just like to do LAX, yes they do and currently it is fair to AA as they do want the tanspacific flights. it might seem unfair to AA when they operate to MU's hub while MU only operate to LAX, but that's yet to come and having a partner is better than doing it alone to beat UA anyway
 
The777Man
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Wed Sep 29, 2004 3:34 pm

I agree with the people that say CO will get the slots; NYC to China doens't have any US carrier. I'm also surprised that AA doesn't apply to fly from JFK or DFW although CO would probably get the rights anyway.

For the 2006 case, it's a bit more difficult but I say DL will get it since there's no service from ATL or from the Souteastern US to China. AA should applied for DFW and if they do that I think AA has a good chance of getting starting service.

As long as AA keeps insisting ORD-PVG and ORD-PEK, I think that they will have to wait to 2007 or later for service. ORD-PVG/PEK could probably support more than one carrier but the "public benefit" would be greater with service from a city without any current US carrier China service. I think they should start ORD-HKG next year as a way of getting back into the mainland Asia market.

When is the decision expected ?

Perhaps MU will start ORD service if AA doesn't get the rights ?

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
masseybrown
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 30, 2004 2:09 am

The China-US agreement says a new US carrier will also be allowed in 2008 and 2010. So they'll all get a China route eventually.

Sooner is better than later, however.
 
B2443
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 30, 2004 2:52 am

Perhaps MU will start ORD service if AA doesn't get the rights ?

MU used to do SHA-PEK-LAX-ORD-SEA-PEK-SHA with MD11s then they dropped SEA ORD altogether with only LAX in their China-US service (A346). Given that all 3 Chinese airlines (CA, MU CZ) can not even use up all their rights at the moment, I doubt MU would do PVG-ORD in the near future. Besides, they need some equipment to do so.
 
The777Man
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RE: 3-way Battle For China. AA, DL, And CO

Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:07 am

B2443, They always get more aircraft. If they lease, they can get aircraft without much delay.

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777