SunValley
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Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 4:33 am

It's my understanding that a major Airport has been discussing with F9
the possibility of creating a mini hub at their airport, as a contingency plan in the event US should liquidate or down size big time. F9 officials have been in
Columbus off & on for about 10 days. ( consultants have been busy giving many airlines all types of detailed reports, airport fees etc in case this event does happen with US)
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 4:48 am

Hey, here's a thought...America West tried using CMH as an east-coast, north-south hub, with absolutely no success due to a lack of connectivity to the rest of the network, so Frontier is going to try to use it in the same matter America West did...great idea...NOT!

Please, spare the residents of Columbus, and the students at Ohio State University, the disappointment of watching another useless hub going up in flames...
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 5:02 am

Plenty of airports would love to become a hub/focus for anyone.... but the question of facilities/model/location/cost always come into play.

There are of course any airport where US is a dominant player, no doubt they're considering their options.

MCI, IND, STL may try to attract more domestic hubbing.

MSY, TPA wouldnt be all that great as domestic hubs, but could possibly serve an airline well as Carribean/L.American gateways.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
SunValley
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 5:11 am

I believe Pride Air tried MSY back in the 80's and failed miserably.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 5:11 am

I tend to doubt that this would happen in the foreseeable future, for all sorts of reasons.

(i) crude oil is at $50 a barrel. Frontier warned about the cost of fuel at $35 a barrel.

Even thought they have taken out a good hedge for the next six months, this is obviously going to impact the bottom line - as it does with all the airlines - and Frontier's position is to conserve cash.

(ii) Because of an accident to the 7th A318 at Airbus, Finkenwerder, they are short an aircraft, which is causing problems for the winter schedule. I don't think they have any planes to spare and they run a fairly lean operation with aircraft scheduling as it is.

(iii) they have stated that they are not overly keen on an eastern hub at this time.

The CEO thinks there is a shake out coming in the industry, and they seem to want to lay low while that happens.

(iv) They are changing over to the Sabre system, and for this reason - as well as the above, they hve said "no new cities, no new routes" in Fiscal '05.

Frontier has already had to deny several rumors about new cities, including Montego Bay, Jamaica.

That last one is funny, because it was the CEO who started the rumor about Jamaica some nine months ago.

(v) The Rockford (Chicago) press has convinced itself that Frontier will soon announce service DEN/RFD. Frontier hasn't mentioned it.

So - if something should happen to US Airways, I could see Frontier maybe - maybe - adding a couple of frequencies to PHL, but I'd be suspicious of a new hub.

However - having said all that, the CEO has also said that Frontier must remain "nimble and reactive" - so maybe if the deal was good enough.....

cheers

mariner
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flyCMH
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 5:58 am

Hey, here's a thought...America West tried using CMH as an east-coast, north-south hub, with absolutely no success due to a lack of connectivity to the rest of the network

SHUPirate1:

The reason(s) behind the failure of America West's Columbus hub was far more complex than that synopsis. I have posted passenger boarding totals for HP's hub operations in CMH before, and I can tell you first hand that connecting traffic was plentiful in Columbus, as well as local traffic. The true reason to their decision to shutter Columbus was a lack of interest in realizing the full potential of the hub; mostly due to the airline's new fare structure and its inability to function in a limited, RJ-heavy operation, coupled with increased pressure from local competitors such as Delta (who, might I add, has taken most of the former HP routes from CMH and is currently operating them successfully).

As far as a possible mini-hub or focus city goes, as far as Columbus is concerned, I have no doubt in my mind that it could work (aircraft delivery problems and fuel costs aside). It is without a doubt that a large-scale hub operation could not function in CMH, that is a given. However, a dedicated operation focused on providing service to high O&D destinations from CMH either not currently served or minimally served from the city is definitely conceivable. In essence, Columbus could handle a similar operation by Frontier to ATA's Indianapolis operations. Flights would be on mainline company metal (not outsourced to a regional affiliate) with aircraft configured in an all coach configuration (HP never had a paying passenger on their first class seats to Florida from CMH), with a premium product at a low fare (also a rarity in CMH).

Granted, this would be contingent on the collapse of USAirways (a scenario I hope does not happen). Also, their would be a host of other possible suitors in addition to Columbus. However, if the situation does become reality, I would think it would be a very good window of opportunity for Frontier to capture a larger presence east of the Mississippi.
 
as739x
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 6:26 am

And to add to flyCMH. An airline (F9) that did the America West route of a hub in CMH would have to also commit to CMH to western city's without a stop in Denver. Who was going to fly PHL-CMH-LAS/PHX-LAX when you could do it non-stop or one stop. I personally think HP made a half a** effort. If they had used a A319 from CMH non-stop to the west, maybe it would have faired better!

ASSFO
"Some pilots avoid storm cells and some play connect the dots!"
 
iowa744fan
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 6:30 am

SHUPirate,

My roommate, who is a huge Buckeye fan, wants me to point out that it should be the students at THE Ohio State University.  Smile Apparantly, you cannot forget the THE in front of it.
 
DLKAPA
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 6:32 am

I think that CMH and DEN are in pretty much the same position Geography wise. DEN is a western hub, but not so far west that it is isolated from the east, and provides great connecting opportunities from the west coast. However, DEN is too far west for a person flying from say, MDW to FLL. Major backtrack.

CMH is in the east, but not so far east that it is isolated from the west. CMH would provide great connecting service between places such as MDW-FLL and MDW-LGA, IAD-STL, DCA-MCI, instead of having to go through DEN on those routes which would equal major backtracking.

Unfortunately as Mariner has stated right now F9 is laying low and just keeping their losses to a minimum (and doing a good job at it). When the industry shakeup has finished its course (which unfortunately will probably mean the end of USAirways), F9 will probably again be looking to expand.

That's why I think CMH would make a great hub for F9, but what do I know, I'm just a Freshman Theatre Major  Laugh out loud
And all at once the crowd begins to sing: Sometimes the hardest thing and the right thing are the same
 
SunValley
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:23 am

DLKAPA, I agree with your conclusion about CMH and the convenience of it's location. I also know that equipment shortages have never stopped other carriers from expanding or taking up opportunity when it knocks. (Morris Air using Sierra Pacific & Ryan- Airtran using Miami Air & Ryan, in the 80's WN using some People Express 727's)
Will UA emerge a leaner meaner airline? who knows? Frontier (a good airline) presents themselves as a LCC, but in reality their fares are about equal to UA in most shared markets. Frontier is very strong in O & D boardings at DEN, where they are known. In other cities their "Origin" traffic is much much weaker due to their small presence and the better known presence of their larger rivals. But the history of hubs with dual operators as in DEN, shows that as the smaller operator gets larger, their load factors as a whole go down, taking the spike of profitability that they experience They pick up the routes with the largest passenger counts first, then start adding routes that don't carry as much passenger volume, resulting in a diluted load factor.
We all know that AA, DL, UA, CO & NW has experienced the last 3 years in turmoil. Turmoil they will learn a lot from. If they should be lucky enough to survive & re-structure themselves, and get to the point where they are leaner, meaner & more profitable (interesting-who could be meaner than AA) and have the power to control and flex, they will be a major obstacle to carriers such as Frontier, Airtran, Spirit, etc. If that should happen, secondary hubs are even more important to carriers such as Frontier. (We are seeing the dilusion in profits & load factors even today with JetBlue, as AA, DL, HP etc., match and cookie cutter what they are doing. Overcapacity is rampant, and the strong will survive. It is interesting to see the history of People Express- AA warned them of Chicago being "their turf", and the day they hit Chicago AA- reacted very very strongly. CAn AA do that today, Not to that degree because of their financial position, BUT--you can bet AA, DL, CO, NW and all are waitng for the judges ruling next week with the pay cuts requested at US.
 
flyCMH
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:39 am

DLKAPA, I too agree with your assessment of CMH's geographical advantages when it comes to hub operations. Though, as you and most others here know, many national carriers have already come to realize the Ohio Valley region makes an excellent connecting point. With CVG, PIT, CLE, and DTW all within a 3-hour radius of CMH, the prospect of Columbus joining their rank as a major hub is essentially zero. While Frontier might want a presence in the area for future large-scale expansion which might bring large amounts of connecting traffic, right now I don't think it's entirely feasable with so many hubs in the region. Hence I believe that if Frontier does want to make inroads east of Denver, they'll have to find a city that can support a decent sized, mostly O&D operation that's not already a hub.
 
A330323X
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:48 am

(v) The Rockford (Chicago) press has convinced itself that Frontier will soon announce service DEN/RFD. Frontier hasn't mentioned it.

I think the RFD people are less delusional than the PIT people.  Laugh out loud
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
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mariner
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 7:51 am

FlyCMH:

"...I believe that if Frontier does want to make inroads east of Denver..."

Which raises the question - does Frontier want to make inroads east of Denver?

I have a suspicion that, at least in the short term, the answer might be "no". Or "not much."

Unless Cancun counts as east of Denver.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
ScottB
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:04 am

For once, I have to agree with Mariner -- the chances of Frontier having a hub at CMH are somewhere between "slim" and "none." Sure, CMH has OK geography for a Midwest hub -- but that really doesn't distinguish it from PIT, CLE, CVG, BNA, MDW, ORD, IND, or DTW. The idea of a hub like ATA's at IND (and serving similar cities) doesn't work too well since WN already serves the majority of those cities non-stop or one-stop from CMH. I suppose you could fly point-to-point to LAX, SFO, RSW, and LGA, but the local demand won't support much more than one flight on each aside from LGA.

If you're thinking about connecting larger cities in the Northeast to Florida, stop right there. Song, jetBlue, AirTran, and Southwest have got most of those well-covered now -- does Frontier really want to be offering BOS-RSW for $59 each way with a connection at CMH? It makes no sense to connect people from the East Coast to the West Coast at CMH unless the DEN hub is completely maxed out (which it isn't). I can see an argument for point-to-point, but:
* Southwest has CMH-BWI covered and Independence has CMH-IAD. DCA slots aren't free.
* Southwest will probably start CMH-PHL within the next year.
* CMH-LGA is possible but LGA slots aren't free, either.
* CMH-BOS doesn't make sense unless Frontier is serving BOS from DEN.
* CMH-MDW, CMH-MCO, and CMH-TPA are all WN routes.
* CMH-LAS and CMH-PHX are both served by WN and HP.

FlyCMH says, "I have posted passenger boarding totals for HP's hub operations in CMH before, and I can tell you first hand that connecting traffic was plentiful in Columbus, as well as local traffic. The true reason to their decision to shutter Columbus was a lack of interest in realizing the full potential of the hub; mostly due to the airline's new fare structure and its inability to function in a limited, RJ-heavy operation..."

Passenger boardings mean nothing when the yields are poor and your market share is poor as well. In spite of its "hub" at CMH, HP held leading market share in only a handful of its non-stop markets. Connecting traffic wasn't making money for HP -- it was only filling seats (at a loss) that would have otherwise flown empty. Heck, Delta, US Airways, and Southwest all had higher O&D market share at CMH than HP in 2000. What exactly is "realizing the full potential of the hub?" Offering lots of loss-making connections to people who are only choosing HP because they are dumping the seats for the lowest price? AWA was losing $25 million per year at CMH -- at about 3500 seats per day (10 daily mainline and 40 daily express flights), they were losing roughly $10 per seat.

In any case, Frontier needs to get its core business back to sustainable profitability before they undertake expensive projects like opening a new hub. With jet fuel prices as high as they are and a soft revenue environment, F9 needs to hunker down at DEN and conserve cash right now.
 
moman
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:29 am

Not to get off topic, but I disagree with ConcordeBoy when he says that TPA would make a good connecting airport. Are you kidding? There aren't even enough gates for that kind of operation. Miami is only 37 flight minutes away. Plus the layout makes it quite challenging. TPA has a good thing going in its' diversity of carriers in that one carrier does not have a monopoly over the airport. Hope it stays that way. Plus no way I'd connect in CMH for a flight to the northeast from Florida. I'd rather go to PHL, IAD, or direct to BOS or LGA/JFK. Plenty of options north for Floridians to choose from without having to go through CMH!

Moman
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InnocuousFox
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:34 am

If US bails, F9 (or someone else) should scoop up the capacity at PIT.
Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
 
nomorerjs
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:35 am

Few, if any, in Chicago (ORD or MDW) would connect at CMH to go to Florida when there are multiple nonstops with low fares on Spirit, USA 3000, Ted, Southwest, and ATA (as long as they are around).
 
KingGeo3
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 10:54 am

I think the RFD people are less delusional than the PIT people.

Us PIT people are not delusional! Don't you know that LH is going to start 3x daily ops with a 744, F9 and WN are going to each open a major hub operation with unbelievably low fares to all points on the compass (including JST and CKB) and US is going to mail an apology letter to all the taxpayers of Allegheny County.

. . .and then I woke up.  Wink/being sarcastic

Back on topic, I think CMH as a hub will have a similar problem as the PIT-CLE syndrome with people driving away to CLE or CVG for potentially cheaper fares (I really doubt CVG though, I used to drive up from Cincy to catch a cheaper DL flight!)

Regards,

KG3
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flyCMH
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 1:38 pm

ScottB wrote:

I suppose you could fly point-to-point to LAX, SFO, RSW, and LGA, but the local demand won't support much more than one flight on each aside from LGA.

That's essentially what I envision. All the cities mentioned above could work well for Frontier from CMH. However I would add Boston, as there is a local demand that currently goes un-met with only 6 regional jets a day split between Delta Connection and American Eagle. Add to that nonstops to Denver and to Cancun (a very popular destination from CMH served weekly by USA3000), and you have a nice-sized operation in Columbus.

I can see an argument for point-to-point, but:
* Southwest has CMH-BWI covered and Independence has CMH-IAD. DCA slots aren't free.


Agreed. Especially with WN adding two more flights to BWI, brining their total up to 5 daily flights.

* Southwest will probably start CMH-PHL within the next year.

Assuming US goes belly-under. Currently US fills the market nicely with 6 daily flights; 3 mainline, 3 regional.

* CMH-LGA is possible but LGA slots aren't free, either.

That's true that they're not free. But the possibility of one-stop LAX-CMH-LGA or DEN-CMH-LGA could make the investment worthwhile.

* CMH-BOS doesn't make sense unless Frontier is serving BOS from DEN.

Possibly. It's pretty hard to believe that DEN-BOS could have been that bad of a route for Frontier in the first place. However like LGA, they could have success using CMH as a thru city to from DEN to BOS.

* CMH-MDW, CMH-MCO, and CMH-TPA are all WN routes.

I definitely agree with MDW, but surely not MCO and TPA. MCO is only served once daily by WN, and TPA has twice daily service. America West had up to 3 A319s flying between CMH and MCO at one time, with the aircraft going out full daily. However, like was mentioned, they made absolutely no money with 12 first class seats going out empty each day also. Given Frontier's different product compared to WN and also DL, and their low fares, I have no doubt in my mind that F9 could take on MCO and TPA, similar to ATA in Indy.

* CMH-LAS and CMH-PHX are both served by WN and HP.

Agree also, though Southwest could really add another PHX flight. Like I said earlier, I couldn't really see Frontier opening cities like PHX and LAS nonstop from CMH, since they are for the most part well served already.

Passenger boardings mean nothing when the yields are poor and your market share is poor as well.

That's what I meant by America West not "realizing the full potential of the hub." America West had the ability to change that situation by responding to the demand at Columbus. A good example was the Columbus to Baltimore run.

America West flew the route five times a day on 50-seat regional jets. These flights filled constantly, and more often than not, with O&D passengers. Like you mentioned, load factor means absolutely nothing when your matching Southwest's fares and operating a high-cost RJ operated by an affiliate carrier. Given the overperformance of the route, frequency should have been reduced to 3 flights a day, still trumping WN's frequencies, and mainline aircraft should have been placed between the two cities. Assuming the aircraft fills up, which Southwest seems to have no problem doing currently, the low-fare model that America West has adopted would have worked on the route. The same scenario can be applied to some of the other RJ routes that were flown from CMH.

I realize what lead to the ultimate demise of the America West hub in CMH. I tried to sum it up in saying that it failed "mostly due to the airline's new fare structure and its inability to function in a limited, RJ-heavy operation, coupled with increased pressure from local competitors," however you explained the situation much better than I did. I just believe that America West did have options in rectifying the low yield situation they faced in Columbus. Likewise, I believe that Frontier, with their low cost model and superior product, could succeed where America West couldn't in Columbus.
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:19 pm

Iowa744fan-The funny thing about that, is that I almost put THE in front of there, but chose not to...
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
ual747den
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Wed Sep 29, 2004 2:53 pm

Frontier will not be opening a hub at CMH EVER!!! F9 does not do what most LCC's are doing by utilizing smaller markets to save money. They go big or go home. They are willing to pay the big money to fly to the big airport in the major markets. If they were to start a new hub it would be in a major city with a big O&D market. I know that in order for them to do this in the East they would have to go up against a tough competitor but that is just the way F9 operates and that is also why they will not be doing it any time soon. I personally think the next big move that we will see from Frontier will be the start of the Caribbean service and possibly a "focus city" in RSW for the service to jump off of. The reason that I say RSW is because F9 has a good relationship with the airport and RSW will soon have more gates then they can fill. Although I do think that RSW is first on the list if the Caribbean service starts the other logical place to start that service from would be FLL and when US is shut down that might be exactly what happens. If F9 was to start this "focus city" to accommodate Caribbean service I would imagine that they would utilize Jet Express in the surrounding cities and the only mainline jets we would see would be from DEN and LAX. Again, this is only my opinion I have not heard anything to back this up with facts.
Another thing worth mentioning is that F9 does operate a sort of "focus city" in CUN. So it is not unlike F9 to see an opportunity and just go for it like LAX and CUN. I would imagine if they started the Caribbean service I speak of they might also add direct flights from not only the cities that they currently serve CUN from but also more "niche" cities in the same way they did with the Mexico service. The possibilities are endless!!!!!
/// UNITED AIRLINES
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Thu Sep 30, 2004 12:08 am

I believe Pride Air tried MSY back in the 80's and failed miserably.

Point being?





but I disagree with ConcordeBoy when he says that TPA would make a good connecting airport. Are you kidding?

Hmm, remind me again of where I said anything about connections at TPA...?
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
N1120A
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:07 am

Um, I think that HP did have at least 1 LAX-CMH flight for a while before they shut down. As far as F9 starting up there, there has been more mention of them doing MSY (would be interesting, as I go to law school in NO but I am from L.A.), though that would not be the best from a hub and spoke stand point. Then again, IAH is way south and CO makes that work big time (then again, Houston is the 4th largest city in the US and fills forward cabins with oil people, but MSY has a big metro area as well, lots of monied tourists and a few businesses of its own) and only 300 miles from MSY. From an O&D stand point, MSY would be much better than CMH. Again, I think F9 will probably focus on DEN and point to point for now, as they need more planes to do anything else major
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ConcordeBoy
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RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

Thu Sep 30, 2004 3:45 am

As I said earlier... MSY wouldn't make that great of a domestic hub. It's got decent O&D, but connection facilities are not extensive, WN is big here, and it's surrounded by much more established domestic hubs (IAH/DFW/MEM/ATL)


With a little tweaking to gate assignments*, it probably however, would make a great USA-Caribbean/LatinAmerican gateway, particularly if a LoCo attempted to make a go at it:
  • no WN
  • no real competition from anyone except MIA (who's at a level unto itself anyways)
  • customs facilities already in place which have the structural capacity to handle multiple flights (widebody and narrowbody) concurrently if staffed to meet that demand.



    *finish the extention of Concourse D, leave the East Terminal alone, scramble UA (and perhaps AA) to other currently unused gates... and the entire international councourse (16 gates: 12 of which can service int'l arrivals, five of which can handle widebodies while all other gates are in use, 1 of which can handle a 747-sized aircraft while all other gates are in use) would be the new airline's to use.
  • Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
     
    ultrapig
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    Frontier

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:17 am

    It's more accurately "Duh" Ohio State University
     
    qwerty
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 4:37 am

    I've flown in and out of CMH many times. It is a lousy airport because the community of Columbus offers very little to an airline.

    - There are no large maintence hangers, save NetJets main facility, so who would want to mini-hub without a maintence base.
    - Columbus is not a growing city.
    - Ohio is not a growing state.
    - Finally, Ohio skiers ski in WVa and NE more than Colorado.
    - The politics of Columbus especially and Ohio are not business first.

    I think if I was looking to mini hub, I'd look for the best opportunity to do so in a geographic market that was at least growing and might put local butts in the seats instead of just connecting others.

    On the upside:

    - Buckeye fans do travel well, but most of the football games are not to F9 destinations and they travel mostly by charters and the students are mostly instaters.


    RE: DL picking up the HP's clack. DL is just feeding local people to ATL and CVG. WN just send people to MDW, BNA, STL and Florida.
     
    ATLhomeCMH
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:13 am

    Likewise, I believe that Frontier, with their low cost model and superior product, could succeed where America West couldn't in Columbus.

    I can always count on FlyCMH to provide an excellent analysis.

    I agree that...

    -a conventional hub model wouldn't work b/c of CVG, DTW, CLE in the region...but an LCC-type operation w/ point-to-point service to high traffic cities would be attractive to those seeking low fares; also, it would be another alternative for West Coast service

    But don't forget...

    -forecasts for Columbus' growth in coming years will warrant additional air travel through future expansion of PCIA, addition of a third parallel runway, and other measures to increase profitability and accomodate growth

    These are all good reasons why I agree CMH would work well for an LCC-type, PTP operation...I'd welcome F9's presence here.

    Qwerty:

    Columbus is not a growing city

    That couldn't be further from the truth. I'll find the census data and post it here.



    [Edited 2004-09-29 22:19:12]

    [Edited 2004-09-29 22:20:03]

    [Edited 2004-09-29 22:30:38]
    "The most terrifying words in the Engligh language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"-Ronald Reagan
     
    SunValley
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:21 am

    The MSY standard is very much the same as LAS. HIgh amounts of steeply discounted travelers filling up aircraft with packaged tours by consolidators for little or noprofit to the airline. The Origin business traffic in MSY just isn't there. (if it were you would see a lot more of WN)
     
    qwerty
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 5:41 am


    Columbus is not a growing city

    That couldn't be further from the truth. I'll find the census data and post it here.


    You might need to define further.

    http://www.census.gov/popest/counties/tables/CO-EST2003-01-39.pdf

    You need to look at Franklin county. From 2000-2003 population growth of 17,185 bodies over 3 year period on a base of just over a million. That's less than 1/2 of 1% per year.

    And the rest of Ohio is a net loser of population. Columbus is often used as a marketing test market simply because it is so vanilla, predicatable, and not really changing.

    ALSO, Franklin county deceptively skews things because it is SO LARGE geographically and it has expanded as townships were rolled up.
     
    flyCMH
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:42 am

    Qwerty wrote:

    - There are no large maintence hangers, save NetJets main facility, so who would want to mini-hub without a maintence base.

    Chautauqua Airlines' largest maintenance base is located at Port Columbus. American Eagle employes over 150 at their Columbus maintenance base. Northwest does regular DC-9 A-checks at their CMH maintenance facility.

    - Columbus is not a growing city.

    You just proved yourself wrong with your own figures from the U.S. census. It may not be growing exponentially like Las Vegas or Atlanta, but it's still growing, which says a lot when the entire state is loosing population.

    - Finally, Ohio skiers ski in WVa and NE more than Colorado.

    That has very little to do with anything, provided that comment is even accurate. As I am not an avid skier, I wouldn't know Ohio's skiing trends, however I do know the state's skiing locations, such as Mad River Mountain and Clear Fork, are well populated during the winter. Plus, having loaded hundreds of pieces of ski equipment onto various Airbuses going out west, my guess is there's quite a few people in Central Ohio that do visit Colorado for skiing.

    I think if I was looking to mini hub, I'd look for the best opportunity to do so in a geographic market that was at least growing and might put local butts in the seats instead of just connecting others.

    If Columbus wasn't putting "local butts in the seats" as you so eloquently put it, then why have Delta, USAirways, American, and Southwest expanded significantly since the hub's demise.

    You need to look at Franklin county.

    No, you need to look at Franklin County, Delaware County, Pickaway County, Licking Country, Union County, etc. Columbus' metropolitan area is comprised of all these counties and then some. If you look at the census data, you'll see that Delaware County is the fastest growing county in the state and 16th fastest growing county in the nation.
    http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/releases/countypop1.xls
    Columbus' metro footprint is continually expanding further north into Delaware County, and also Licking County. Hence Columbus' metropolitan area, and therefore the catchment area for Port Columbus, is continually growing.
     
    flyCMH
    Posts: 2134
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 10:53 am

    I couldn't let this egregious error pass either:

    RE: DL picking up the HP's clack. DL is just feeding local people to ATL and CVG.

    Ummm, Delta and Delta Connection currently fly 35 nonstop flights every weekday from Columbus to not only Atlanta and Cincinnati, but Orlando, Tampa, Ft. Myers, Ft. Lauderdale, Boston, New York LaGuardia, New York JFK, and Washington National, with Hartford service commencing this December.


     
    moman
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Thu Sep 30, 2004 11:02 am

    Concorde boy:
    "MSY, TPA wouldnt be all that great as domestic hubs, but could possibly serve an airline well as Carribean/L.American gateways."

    Sounds like you are talking about a Latin America gateway hub to me, similar to what Miami has. Won't work in TPA.

    Moman
    AA Platinum Member - American Airlines Forever
     
    airfrnt
    Posts: 1993
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Sun Oct 10, 2004 2:33 pm

    I think that there is a outside chance that F9 may chose to move into an east coast market if US does a belly flop. However, I think there is a much better chance that we will see a round of consolidation before that, and I suspect that either FL or B6 may snap at F9 as a way to grab a good western hub. (I think B6 is much more likely)

    Ideally in the long run for F9, hubs to the northeast and southwest would help there route structure. But the great thing about DEN is that it allows them to capture a fair amount lot of east-west traffic from a single hub without a major layover. Hence any east coast hubbing would have to be in a massive city to give up the advantages of a single hub. F9 right now probably can not crack a top 5 market on the east coast, so it is probably better to lay low and wait for offers, or for US or UA to die.

    If US dies, and it looks like UA will survive, I can see F9 moving east. If US dies or stays alive, but UA dies, F9 is in a ideal situation where they have control of one of the most ideal (good O&D mix, ideal location) hubs in the country.
     
    InnocuousFox
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:14 am

    I agree that they have their eyes on US particularly. If US liquidates, there will be some prime hub space available at PHL and CLT (or even PIT for that matter) as well as a buttload of Airbii to pick up for cheap. Ideally, F9 would rather have a hub in about the CVG/MEM area for better connectivity geographically, but the above would do as well.
    Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
     
    User avatar
    mariner
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:30 am

    I agree that everything changes if US Airways folds, but I don't think Frontier is banking on it, and I have some problems with a hub in the east for them.

    Having a an eastern hub means that they are going to be like every other US airline - trying to cover the US domestic market in various ways. So you end up with a bunch of airlines all doing the same thing.

    I don't know what Frontier's CEO has in mind, but all the clues are for something a little bit different.

    Frontier was the first LCC to make a big splash in Mexico (HP's Mexican routes were mostly in place before they adopted the LCC model). It wouldn't surprise me to see them try something "different" again.

    And I'm not sure that Frontier wants to get involved in the East Coast airline wars.

    cheers

    mariner
    aeternum nauta
     
    rage323machine
    Posts: 78
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 3:49 am

    F9 hub in CMH we saw HP try it no success! Well let me point out also HP did pull out due to lack or interest not productivity of the city nor hub. I guess HP felt major adjustments needed to be done there. Does F9 have enough money or aircraft to actually set up a big focus city or better yet an afficial hub. Anyone know the amout of A/C F9 has I think about 45 or so. Well I wish them the best if they go for it.
     
    burnsie28
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:27 am

    1) Columbus residents are more likely to get a NW focus city (Heartland Strategy) then Frontier.

    2) Frontier does not have the money to open a new hub, they are losing money as it is, and before someone says something like well NW is losing money and opening hub/focus city sort of thing, NW has A LOT more money then F9
     
    InnocuousFox
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 4:35 am

    However, if the market changes that significantly (i.e. US fails), it would be an interesting meeting to see if they could get financing to pick up the aircraft/infrastructure. Remember, you don't have to pay cash. If a creditor thinks that the investment will be secure (e.g. pay off), they will foot the bill for it.
    Dave Mark - Intrinsic Algorithm - Reducing the world to mathematical equations!
     
    N1120A
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:05 am

    On the CMH v. DEN thing, you have to realize a few things. DEN is a much bigger city than CMH. It also has one of the most state of the art airports in the world, with virtually unlimited capacity. It also has a big O&D market because of tourism things like skiing. Also, it is the main airport for Boulder, which is also a big college town (like CMH). CMH is a small capital with a big university, but so is Sacramento and SMF does not have a huge amount of service either. Hubs are good to a point, but nothing replaces O&D.
    Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
     
    ConcordeBoy
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:25 am

    The Origin business traffic in MSY just isn't there. (if it were you would see a lot more of WN)

    ...we will. They just got five more gates here, and could soon get three or more in addition to those.
    Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
     
    N1120A
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:36 am

    WN seems to be looking to add another LAX-MSY flight, which will be cool as their current timings suck and UA has more flights. Probably non-stops to BWI, which will be good for the WN F/A I date to come down. There is pleanty of biz traffic to add to all the tourism. Sure, it is not the world's biggest oil city anymore, but NO still holds it own.
    Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
     
    ConcordeBoy
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:42 am

    and UA has more flights

    ...for a grand total of two  Laugh out loud

    Anywho, there's another airline looking at LAX-MSY, though I'm not so sure they'll go through with it.





    it is not the world's biggest oil city anymore, but NO still holds it own.

    Still thirty or so flights a day to that city is nothin' to sneeze at  Big grin




    Aside from the obvious targets of MCI/MDW... would love to see WN add more Texas regionals nonstop from here as well: chief among them SAT and AUS.
    Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
     
    N1120A
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:46 am

    Yeah, I would think a few AUS non-stops would be good for them. Connecting the 2 party and left thinking islands in seas of conservatism would be great. Plenty of UT kids would fly here for Mardi Gras and plenty of Austin City Limits for MSY residents.

    F9 is offering really cheap fares on their one-stop directs MSY-DEN-LAX, so they are probably trying to build up a customer base.

    And yes, between CO and WN, he have more than enough hops to houston
    Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
     
    ConcordeBoy
    Posts: 16852
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:50 am

    Connecting the 2 party and left thinking islands in seas of conservatism would be great.

    ...I'm guessing you must not be all that familiar with Houston & Dallas then....?





    Getting back on the original topic... would love to see F9 make MSY a LatAm gateway, even if everything originated in DEN.

    Steve-o, what's the holdup with MSY-CUN on them? Weren't they shopping it?
    Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
     
    N1120A
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Mon Oct 11, 2004 7:57 am

    Houston as liberal? One can only dream.

    I would love to see anyone make MSY any kind of hub. If IAH is not too far south, MSY should not be either as they are very close. Then again, we are a perfect WN Point to Point type place. Given F9 and HP's new leaning toward P2P, perhaps we could see more service that way
    Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
     
    MSYtristar
    Posts: 7543
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    RE: Frontier & A Hub Out East

    Tue Oct 12, 2004 5:55 am

    I just have a couple of comments here.

    1) The notion that MSY is a 100% leisure market is completely unfounded. The city has numerous businesses (namely transoceanic shipping firms. energy companies, law firms, a growing medical sector, etc.) which bring in a fair amount of business travel from all across the U.S...and the world...namely Europe and Central America. The city will never be as big of a business center as a Houston or an Atlanta, that being said, we hold our own. I guess you have to live in the area to fully know the what makes the market tick.

    2) WN will continue to expand from here. They just have other priorities right now (namely PHL). WN has the entire Concourse B here (currently eight gates in use with about four more undergoing renovation).

    3) Our director of aviation told me personally yesterday that a direct Europe flight will be "coming soon."

    4) MSY-CUN will see scheduled nonstop service resumed in the coming year.

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