Sjoerd
Topic Author
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:47 pm

Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Wed Oct 13, 2004 4:00 am

What are the chances that if Boeing builds a B744Adv it will be countered by an other A380 aircraft, the A380-700 ? This shorter version would carry around 470 pax. It is described on this website. What are your thoughts ?
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
Max Q
Posts: 5644
Joined: Wed May 09, 2001 12:40 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Wed Oct 13, 2004 11:37 am

Don't think that could be economical, as the Basic A380 has a heavier structure than needed to allow for the stretched model to be structurally
feasible.

A shrink, conversely would bring nearly all of that heavier structure to an aircraft with less seats to pay for the higher fuel burn.
The best contribution to safety is a competent Pilot.
 
Ruscoe
Posts: 1577
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 1999 5:41 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Wed Oct 13, 2004 11:49 am

It will probably all depend upon how well the 388 performs. If it is better than predicted, then maybe, but if worse than predicted, forget it.

Ruscoe
 
Rj111
Posts: 3007
Joined: Wed Sep 08, 2004 9:02 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:01 pm

I dunno what Airbus were thinking/smoking designing the A380's wing/structure for a stretch as supposed to a shrink.

The market for an A389 must be minute whereas the market for an A387 sized plane must be bigger than the -800's. A market which boeing will have the upper hand in should they go ahead with the 747 adv.

The only redeeming factor should the two planes happen would be commonality. Now that many major airlines have the A380 on order it may be more economical to use the A387 over the 747adv even if it will have a higher CASM. The 747adv would mean introducing a whole new aircraft type, which AFAIK will only have one derivative. An ok fleet strategy if you dont intend to order the A380, but a somewhat inefficient one if you do.

I guess Airbus have had resonable success in shrinking planes before though, the A332 and A319 spring to mind.
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8588
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Wed Oct 13, 2004 12:07 pm

Building on what MaxQ stated, your comparing the economics of a stretched aircraft to that of a shrink. The 747-Adv will make the 747 as a whole lighter and more fuel efficent, while an increase in seats brings seat/mile cost even lower. Conversly, shrinking the A388 would make an aircraft heavier and less efficent per seat/mile. I would be *very* suprised if the A387 would have economics that would make it a serious contender without the 747-Adv in the market.

The A387 would have commonality with the A388 which is a bonus for airlines already ordering it. Problem is, the 747-Adv is tailored for the airlines who want a slightly bigger aircraft than the 744 but don't want the risk or quite the capacity of the A388. These are airlines like CX.

If Airbus has a design that would win *new* customers to the A380 family (be it A387 or A388) they would be acting on it by now. Enough A388 design work is completed for Airbus to study a derivitive, and since they are not proactively courting airlines, I don't think the A387 concept has much potential. I think the A387 went out the door when SQ demanded their noise requirements be met a
 
RIX
Posts: 1589
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Wed Oct 13, 2004 11:12 pm

"hat Airbus were thinking/smoking designing the A380's wing/structure for a stretch as supposed to a shrink." - an interesting question. As far as I remember, the whole idea of A3XX was VLA, a new airframe design with capacity more than the largest of proposed 747 could offer, with opportunity to grow even more. The demand on A388 is already here, as for A389 – well, this machine is going to be around during decades, ready to be stretched as soon as (if) needed. But, indeed, what if A380 was built to be more efficient starting with 450 seats (still offering basic model as a 550 seater)? Then Airbus would cover everything from present 747 market and up – 747 Adv would hardly have a chance then… By the other hand, would a “full size” double-decker (with full length widebody upper deck) be a good idea for such a “small” thing as 450 seats? Reminds rather of 736/318/335, or proposed (at least here, at a.net  Smile) 757-100 or 777-100…
 
Sjoerd
Topic Author
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:47 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:18 am

The A320 was shrunk succesfully by Airbus. It depends on what Airbus had in mind when it developped the wing. Commonality is a plus, but possibly also price. The A387 could be cheaper to develop than the B744Adv. A shorter version will look weird though.

The last paragraph of this web site :

http://www.airbus.com/media/a380_family.asp
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
DeltaWings
Posts: 1234
Joined: Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:06 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:53 am

I know, they will stretch the A346 to compeete with the 747adv

 Smile

Homer: Marge, it takes two to lie. One to lie and one to listen.
 
DfwRevolution
Posts: 8588
Joined: Sat Jan 09, 2010 7:31 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:05 am

The A320 was shrunk succesfully by Airbus. It depends on what Airbus had in mind when it developped the wing.

Don't forget that the A320 was initially developed as the A320-100, which we all know was lighter structually than the heavier A320-200. The A321-100/200, A319CJ were built of this platform while the regular A319/A318 feature the lighter structure.

Since the A380 doesn't have a second structural variant, a shrink has no lighter variant to fall back on.

Commonality is a plus, but possibly also price. The A387 could be cheaper to develop than the B744Adv

Cheaper to develop is one thing, cheaper to sell is another. The cheapest A380-800 is 40 million dollars more expensive than the most pricey Boeing product, the 777-300ER. If the 747-Adv is offered for roughly the same price is a 744ER, then the A387 would require a significant mark-down.
 
greaser
Posts: 1040
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2004 5:55 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:18 am

Not only that, DFW, Boeing is gonna want to dominate this market from day 1, among the others (737, 777 type) it is the easiest and the most talked about.
Judging by Boeing's latest trend of relatively cheaper jets, i would think they would undercut any 387's prices, plus offer a newer, more efficient design, and commonality with the -E7 and 737Xs.
Airbus really has -900 going for them, not the 700. Shrinks don't work
(i,e a318, 736)
Now you're really flying
 
ual777
Posts: 1507
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:38 am

The demand for the A380 is in actuality pretty weak. Airbus has not even sold 200 yet and I am willing to bet that the ones they have sold have been heavily discounted. 250-300 aircraft sold is the ROCK bottom possible to break even on an aircraft. The development costs for a plane like the A380(which i think is a cool airplane) have got to be just huge. Airbus has no experiance with something this big. Anyway, I have the gut feeling that perhaps the A380 is a symbol of prestige, not a widely marketable aircraft like the 7E7 (which is going to sell big).
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
katanapilot
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:25 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:55 am

^^ 'I know, they will stretch the A346 to compeete with the 747adv'

bwa ha ha ha. oh man. imagine an A347.... there would have to be a wheel on the tail to absorb all the tailstrikes  Big grin
 
RIX
Posts: 1589
Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:18 am

”The demand for the A380 is in actuality pretty weak.” - probably, yes, as long as it is being sold as a niche aircraft, which is happening right now. But, again, this thing was designed to be around for many years to come, with a big chance to be in a higher demand in future. Still, looks somewhat risky... ”a cool airplane” – an amazing machine, just look at those photos…
 
Hirnie
Posts: 465
Joined: Mon May 10, 2004 7:13 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:45 am

Regarding the A380 - orders will come in the future...

On the other thread: perhaps Airbus puts an upper deck on the A345/346 to compete with the Jumbo... HAHAH. Don`t take me to serious on this.
 
User avatar
Francoflier
Posts: 3726
Joined: Wed Oct 31, 2001 12:27 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 10:19 am

The demand for the A380 is in actuality pretty weak. Airbus has not even sold 200 yet and I am willing to bet that the ones they have sold have been heavily discounted.

The a/c is not even flying yet!
Why don't you wait until airlines actually operate it before you bash?
Oh, and 200 IS a lot for that kind of aircraft.

heavily discounted
Because you were part of the people who made the deal, right?

I hate it when people shoot in the air like that. They make themselves sound like soccer team supporters.

Airbus has no experiance with something this big.

They never had when they designed any of their airframes. Nevertheless they didn't do too bad...
And all the girls I know say that size makes up for experience...  Laugh out loud
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
ual777
Posts: 1507
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 6:18 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:23 pm

Francoflier:

ALL orders of any large quantity, ESPECIALLY those of launch customers are heavily discounted. This is true of any aircraft. I am not an airbus hater. I love the A320 series. However, I believe that Boeing long-haul widebodies are superior to that of airbus.

Do not call me a soccer fan when you have NO evidence to prove otherwise. I am using precident as fact. What are you using?
It is always darkest before the sun comes up.
 
N1120A
Posts: 26468
Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:40 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 1:28 pm

According to Boeing, the 744ADV will potentially have a lower CASM than the A388 anyway. If the A318 was build on a light structure, why would it be considered way to heavy?
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
Areopagus
Posts: 1327
Joined: Thu Sep 20, 2001 12:31 pm

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 2:39 pm

^^ 'I know, they will stretch the A346 to compeete with the 747adv'

bwa ha ha ha. oh man. imagine an A347.... there would have to be a wheel on the tail to absorb all the tailstrikes


No, they will just stretch it forward of the wing and main gear, and put a canard up front to maintain balance, as well as a beefed up nose gear. Eventually, they will produce the A348, a centipede-like plane with a set of wings for every additional fuselage barrel section the customer cares to order.
 
jlb
Posts: 66
Joined: Wed Nov 03, 1999 1:01 am

RE: Airbus Answer To B744ADV

Thu Oct 14, 2004 5:17 pm

Does anybody know the actual wing area/wing loading of the 388 compared to the 744?