N1120A
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Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:27 pm

So, I was just thinking, what does everyone here think would be a non-stop or direct route from the US (or anywhere else for that matter) that would make lots of money for airlines, except that politics get in the way. This is not a political thread.

I think that a massive money maker would be LAX-THR, given the huge Iranian community in Southern California (and CA in general) and their disposable income. I am sure that at least 2 744s could be filled a day between the 2 cities (LAX-THR is shorter than LAX-MEL, so a non-stop on a 744 should not be an issue). European airlines have been making tons on connecting traffic for years (why do you think LH and KL fly widebodies, and SR flew an MD-11 until their widebody shortage stopped the THR route? Full of people on flights from LA). Also, who has that route authority from the US?
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Lufthansa
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:55 pm

The best example i can think of was SAA during the old days.

SAA flights weren't allowed to fly across central africa and had to chart up the coast in international waters, stopping in Portugal(correct me if im wrong) for fuel before continuing onto heathrow. At that time, BA made a packet on this route because it could fly a more direct route (shaving hours and hours off the trip) at a premium price.

The closets situation i can think of Today is maybe J'berg to Tel aviv. There is a significant Israelie population in South Africa, be EL AL aircraft are not allowed to overfly Arab airspace (unless they want a missile up their ass). I think SAA make a bit on these flights.

However today this industry is pretty damn competive, so when an opportunity exists, it is usually snapped up pretty damn fast.
 
N1120A
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:00 pm

Oh, I know that chances are snapped up fast, but a non-stop flight 14-15 hour flight LAX-THR-LAX is a lot more attractive than 24-30 hours in transit, and that is what I am looking at. I can see your point on the El Al/SAA flights. Any one else want to weigh in?
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keno
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:03 pm

That's easy. Taiwan to anywhere in China Big grin
 
uadc8contrail
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:04 pm

n1120a,
if we had diplomatic ties to thr, im sure co would be chomping at the bit to open up the mid east as they have conquered europe with the fleet of 757s. one route that i know would be a cash cow would be south fla to hav, until the govt gets their heads out of the sand and accept cuba like they have accepted other communist countries(china,viet-nam).......
bus driver.......move that bus:)
 
N1120A
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:07 pm

Ah, yes, Cuba. That would be a big market. Not only South Florida, but tourism would abound. I bet AA would mint money with A300s on that route, even on short routes like MIA-HAV.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
BA
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:09 pm

THR-JFK
THR-LAX
THR-YUL
BEY-JFK
BEY-DTW
BEY-YUL
DAM-JFK
DAM-DTW
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
lymanm
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:12 pm

Montreal - Beruit. In fact, AC was ever so close to starting it, and it had apparently sold quite well before the government, under pressure from our American neighboUrs, suspended AC's authority on the route.

Considering how many American troops are in Iraq, USA-Baghdad may do well for military VFR. However, that route wouldn't work more for security reasons rather than political no no's.
buhh bye
 
N1120A
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:16 pm

How about THR-IAH? That is also a big O&D market, with many Iranians in IAH. That could be a CO route, 1-2X 772ER each day.

Also, aren't airlines allowed to operate "charters" (that seem to have a schedule) Taiwan-Mainland China?

Oh, a bit off topic, but can any one from New Orleans guess how many people will be flying MSY-SFO-SGN with UA?
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ly7e7
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:23 pm

The closets situation i can think of Today is maybe J'berg to Tel aviv.

LY does it.

JFK/EWR/LGA - HAV would be a huge success.
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BA
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:23 pm

Lymanm,

Indeed. It was pulled exactly one day before the route was about to start! What a pain...

The flight was instead routed to operate YUL-FRA and Air Canada chartered Lufthansa A321s to take the passengers onward to BEY. These Lufthansa flights were in addition to the daily flight that Lufthansa operates into Beirut.

Some passengers were also booked on MEA from Frankfurt because the Lufthansa A321s couldn't take all the passengers of the Air Canada B767-300ERs.

I can't imagine the mess the passengers must have been through and the frustration they felt...

A few of my relatives almost booked on that flight. Thankfully, flights were full and they were UNABLE to book on them. The fact that the flights were full and unable to book on them saved them a big headache.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
JGPH1A
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 4:52 pm

Re: The closets situation i can think of Today is maybe J'berg to Tel aviv. There is a significant Israelie population in South Africa, be EL AL aircraft are not allowed to overfly Arab airspace (unless they want a missile up their ass). I think SAA make a bit on these flights.

There have been flights between SA and Israel since the 1940's - during apartheid, both SA and LY operated the route. LY routed down the Red Sea and round the horn of Africa, stopping in NBO before continuing on - their flight took about 11 hours I believe. SA routed the flight round West Africa, with stops in LIS can FCO - this flight used to take 17 or 18 hours I believe. SA stopped flying the route in the 90's and now codeshares on LY (who now operate the route nonstop).

Re: SAA flights weren't allowed to fly across central africa and had to chart up the coast in international waters, stopping in Portugal(correct me if im wrong) for fuel before continuing onto heathrow.

SA flights to Europe round West Africa used to stop in a few different places eg. to start with LAD, then when Angola became independent, the flights would stop in ABJ, LPA or SID (the airport at Ilha do Sal was paid for by the South African goverment to provide a stopover point for SA flights). In the late 80's SA bought 747-300's that could fly JNB-LHR non-stop, and upgraded the engines on their 747-200's to allow them to operate nonstop to Europe as well.
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johnboy
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 5:02 pm

Pyongyang-Seoul (until the day when high-speed trains ply between the two cities).
 
planenutz
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 6:07 pm

I beleive that flights between MIA and HAV are operated per a charter basis with approval from the US Treasury Department. I know that there's also a twice weekly LAX-HAV charter operated by Grupo TACA. While these flights are considered charter, for all intensive purposes I think they're scheduled because they occur with regular frequencies. The only draw back is that you have to make bookings through an authorized travel agent and not with the airlines directly.

Indeed, if any Chinese carrier could begin flying non-stop between mainland China and Taiwan, major bank could be made. Tens of thousands of Taiwanese travel to the mainland each year, primarily for business and investment, and have to transit through Hong Kong.

I always tbought that a direct link between THR and LAX would be extremely profitable. Especially if the flight operated via a European city not already connected to LA (VIE, MXP, BRU, CPH) and the flight had 5th Freedom. It would be awesome if Iran Air began twice weekly direct service with their 747SPs! I'd be all over it.

Aparthied SAA had a funky route map according to my old timetable. Because of the flight restrictions over much of central/north Africa, all flights to Europe
skirted the west coast of the continent stopping in either LAD, SID. or Las Palmas. This was just prior to their receiving their 747SPs. SAA's Flt. 266 from JNB to ATH was routes JNB-SID-LIS-FCO-ATH. This was in 1978. Even though SAA had 747-100s at the time, they opted to use the 707 on the route.










Not all who wander are lost....
 
ltbewr
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 8:19 pm

Non-stop or 1 stop flights operated by a USA based airline:
from JFK/EWR, ATL, Washington, DC, Houston to Nigeria, and other western African oil countries,
From JFK/EWR or Washington DC to Syria, Lebanon, or anyplace in the Middle East, Northern African countries, including Egypt (besides Israel)
For some countries though, you need to deal with becoming a terror target, terrible corruption, theft of baggage, difficulties in getting good help, getting people to work for an American company, problems with catering services. Also on flights from the USA, probably yield problems as many looking for cheap flights, having huge oversized/overweight baggage (although excess baggage fees could be another $ maker)
 
PHLBOS
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:39 pm

I'm surprised that no one has yet mentioned this one:

WN offering service to all of its cities from DAL.  Laugh out loud
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Jet-lagged
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Tue Oct 26, 2004 11:00 pm


I think Keno is right.
Especially TPE-PVG and TPE-FOC

How about
IAD-TPE-PEK-TPE-IAD hehehe
 
MSYtristar
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:45 am

How many people will fly MSY-SFO-SGN with UA? Probably several per flight. We get a lot of Asian traffic out of here thanks in large part to the port. Many workers on the freighters that dock in the Port of New Orleans after a long transoceanic voyage reside in Asia. And of course, they fly out of MSY, after being cleared by customs on board the ships. MSY doesn't have an overly large Asian population base (the largest group being Vietnamese, with around 10,000 or so), but we do get a decent amount of Asian traffic for a city our size. Have a look at the passenger manifest on United's SFO nonstop (and their morning LAX flight) and you'll see what i'm talking about.
 
AA717driver
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:47 am

DTW-Baghdad...........TC
FL450, M.85
 
ctbarnes
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:12 am

This may be a naive question (at least before I reach my theraputic level of caffine), but why would the US object to flights between North America and BEY these days? I can understand why during the civil war, or was that when AC tried to start the service?

Charles, SJ
The customer isn't a moron, she is your wife -David Ogilvy
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:23 am

can any one from New Orleans guess how many people will be flying MSY-SFO-SGN with UA?

We get a lot of Asian traffic out of here thanks in large part to the port. Many workers on the freighters that dock in the Port of New Orleans after a long transoceanic voyage reside in Asia. And of course, they fly out of MSY, after being cleared by customs on board the ships. MSY doesn't have an overly large Asian population base (the largest group being Vietnamese, with around 10,000 or so), but we do get a decent amount of Asian traffic for a city our size. Have a look at the passenger manifest on United's SFO nonstop (and their morning LAX flight) and you'll see what i'm talking about.



Also, another flight you two might not have thought of is AA's MSY-MIA. Ever noticed how many Vietnamese board that flight??

MSY-MIA-CDG on AA, a which is interlined with VN at CDG. It's rather popular amoung them.

....course, if we had our own #$%^&@! CDG connection it'd be even easier-- but that's a whole nother (not to mention recurrent) discussion Big grin Big grin
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BA
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:26 am

Ctbarnes,

This may be a naive question (at least before I reach my theraputic level of caffine), but why would the US object to flights between North America and BEY these days?

They are still mad about the bombing of the Marine Barracks in 1983 that resulted in the death of 283 marines. It was an unfortunate and sad event, but that is war. War is never pretty.

Another reason is to pressure Lebanon to sign peace with Israel, but Lebanon will not sign any peace treaty with Israel until the Palestinian/Israeli conflict is solved and the 400,000 Palestinian refugees in Lebanon are allowed to return to their homeland.

They are also trying to pressure Lebanon to disarm Hezbollah which is an active political party that maintains a small militia in the south of Lebanon. The US regards them as a terrorist group, while the Lebanese people regard them as a legitimate resistence movement because they helped liberated southern Lebanon from Israeli occupation in July 2000 after intense fighting with Israeli military forces.

I can understand why during the civil war, or was that when AC tried to start the service?

AC tried to start the service in summer 2003 as a 3x weekly B767-300ER service from Montreal (YUL).

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
ctbarnes
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:30 am

Thanks BA!

Charles, SJ
The customer isn't a moron, she is your wife -David Ogilvy
 
wdleiser
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 7:16 am

I could have sworn that United had flights from Miami to Havana in the 90's, just US Citizens werent allowed on it. I am probably wrong as i am wrong alot, but i could have sworn this.
 
roseflyer
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 7:46 am

I fully agree with KEno in that TPE-China would be a hugely profitable route. The people on that route now have to switch airlines, or take very weird bookings through HKG, SEL. A nonstop flight would be HUGE, but is politically unlikely in the near future. 1 stops are as close as you can get.

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moman
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:14 am

Tampa-Havana
Miami-Havana
Orlando-Havana
Tallahassee-Havana
ATL-Havana
Jacksonville-Havana

I'm with the rest of y'all, waiting for the day I can tour Cuba.

Moman
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trickijedi
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of

Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:24 am

Pyongyang-Seoul (until the day when high-speed trains ply between the two cities).

...or Pyongyang to its major "neighboring" cities as well - NRT, HKG and SIN to name a few. Pyongyang to anywhere in the US would be nice  Wink/being sarcastic. I know, highly unlikely.
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expressjetphx
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:54 am

I'm very surprised that no one has mentioned US-China flights. While I know that currently UA and NW have route authority, and that more may be coming from the DOT and PRC, as of now the route is 'restricted,' and is a huge cash cow for both airlines.

Also mentioned before any routes from the US-Cuba. Just see how many Europeans travel across the Atlantic to go to HAV and Varadero every year.

Until recently, flights from Europe to Baghdad (SDA). As there is a large Middle Eastern population in Europe, especially in England, these flights proved profitable before UN sanctions. As I understand it now, Iraqi AIrways operates to some local destinations like Amman, and I heard a rumor awhile back that BA and some other European airlines were planning service to Basra until Saddam Hussein Int'l was repaired and ready for long-haul service.
 
moose1226
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of

Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:14 pm

I think an LY IAD-TLV service would be profitable, because I'm sure that a great deal of the people taking LY's NYC-TLV service and CO's EWR-TLV service are originating in Washington. In addition to the US Government presence, there is a large Jewish Population in the DC area.
 
N1120A
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:24 pm

US airlines are allowed to fly charters to Cuba, but can't fly scheduled service. Also, US citizens are allowed to travel to Cuba if they have a license from the Treasury department (much like Iran). Or, they can travel through another country and not get their passport stamped in Cuba.
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zippyjet
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:38 pm

BWI/DCA or IAD -HAV
JFK/EWR/LGA-HAV

To a much lesser extent, FL commencing nonstop BWI-MDW On this last one you may ask why? Because there is a so called gentleman's agreement with the WN dynasty at BWI not to go there. I feel this may be ammended once the MFW expansion gets into full swing.
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N1120A
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:42 pm

MFW? I guess WN might approve, knowing that FL is taking over for TZ, since they don't seem to mind competition.
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jcs17
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:44 pm

You know, whenever the embargo is lifted, and normal US-Cuba flights are able to resume, after a while, its not going to be exactly a slam dunk in terms of revenue for the majors. You're crazy if you don't think the LCCs will be dying to compete with the majors in US-Cuba market.

Taipei to mainland China is probably one of the most lucrative markets out there which is a big political no-no. Within a few years though, I expect the market to SDA experience a huge spike.
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ua777222
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:53 pm


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??? The AC a/c is ok but why is the US Flag allowed? Even if it's part of the normal c/s.

Thanks again.

UA777222
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N1120A
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:01 pm

The US flag is on that AC plane promoting cooperation between neighbors and allies. That is why it is there.
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ua777222
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RE: Political No No Routes That Would Make Lots Of $

Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:04 pm

What about the CO a/c. That a/c has an American Flag on the tail and if I recall correctly that's a big no no..... let alone the airline it's self and any related a/c touching down in Cuba...

Thanks again.

UA777222

And it's promoting cooperation between US and CAN not US, CAN, CUBA..
"It wasn't raining when Noah built the ark."