kalakaua
Posts: 1430
Joined: Tue Jan 27, 2004 5:23 pm

A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 5:03 pm

http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/10/28/news/poland.html

International Herald Tribune
Polish air carrier faces delicate choice
By Judy Dempsey Friday, October 29, 2004

WARSAW When Poland's national air carrier, Lot, starts shopping for new aircraft, it will face one of the toughest decisions in its 75-year history: whether to buy European or American. The choice is no mere business matter, for whatever Lot decides, it is likely to leave Poland hostage to accusations that it has betrayed an ally.
.
"We are just at the beginning of the process," Leszek Chorzewski, a spokesman for Lot, said this week. "The decision could be made in the first months of next year."
.
The situation with Lot illustrates how difficult it is for former Communist countries and new EU members like Poland to build a future free of domination - be it from Moscow, Washington or Brussels - without engendering feelings of ingratitude that could affect everything from the flow of Western aid to the degree to which the Central and East European lands can overcome their past.
.
At present, Lot uses only Boeing aircraft for its long-haul and middle-range fleets, with its oldest long-haul aircraft already 17 years old. Soviet Tupolev jets, used by Lot during the Communist era, have been phased out.
.
Although there is nothing new about the rivalry between Boeing and Airbus, what makes the Polish tender special is the Europeans' desire to settle scores. They have not forgotten how the European military sector was squeezed out more than 18 months ago when Poland chose Lockheed Martin, the U.S. military contractor, for a $3 billion purchase to equip its air force.
.
Poland bought the 48 American-made F-16 fighters at a time when it was involved in difficult enlargement negotiations with the EU and was enduring sharp reproaches from Brussels for moving too slowly to implement EU legislation.
.
France, furious over the Lockheed purchase, suggested that the government in Warsaw was acting disloyally at a time when it should have been aligning itself much more closely to European industrial and foreign policy decisions.

continue article at http://www.iht.com/articles/2004/10/28/news/poland.html.


View Large View Medium
Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Johan Knijn

Gravity explains the motions of the planets, but it cannot explain who set the planets in motion.
 
777ER
Crew
Posts: 9863
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 5:04 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 5:18 pm

Who cares about betraying an ally. The key to an airlines success is to choose the aircraft/s that will suit the airline, not to please the unions they belong to.
Head Forum Moderator
moderators@airliners.net for all Moderator contact
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1605
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:05 pm

LOT wants to have the current long haul fleet replaced by 2006, according to the Polish edition of Newsweek. This rules out 7E7, but on the other hand Boeing offered a few 763s to cover for the time of unavailability... I personally would prefer A330-200 in LOTs colours...
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:09 pm

I hope LO buy whichever equipment best suit their needs for the price, without regard to political considerations. Politics has no rightful place in business.
 
bmiEMA19
Posts: 84
Joined: Sat Aug 09, 2003 3:04 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:12 pm

With them being part of Star now I personally think they'll go with Airbus. Given that most other Star carriers have opted for Airbus as replacement aircraft, ie bmi, United, US, Spanair
 
sn26567
Posts: 129
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 12:16 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:16 pm

First a small mistake in the IHT article. LOT did not have only Tupolevs (134 and later 154), but also Ilyushins 18 and 62 and Antonovs 24.

For the renewal of their fleet, I'm afraid that LOT is kind of hostage of the US and will buy Boeings, whatever Airbus may offer.

I agree with Zvezda that politics has no place in business, but don't forget that LOT is still government owned, and thus subject to political pressures.
ex-Sabena #26567
 
JGPH1A
Posts: 15080
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 4:36 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:20 pm

It should be a purely economic decision. I know France does go out and push Airbus sales at every possible opportunity, and not in the most honest way either (e.g. offering a more open bilateral or more CDG slots), but that's wrong. Anyway, there's not a lot France can bribe LOT with anyway, now that Poland is in the EU.

It would be downright shameful if either side reproaches LOT or Poland whatever decision they take. They are the consumer, they have a choice, get over it.
Young and beautiful and thin and gorgeous AND BANNED ! Cya at airspaceonline.com, losers
 
Treg
Posts: 488
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2001 8:55 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:21 pm

Are they privatized or not?
 
sn26567
Posts: 129
Joined: Fri Aug 20, 2004 12:16 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:28 pm

Are they privatized or not?

No! They are a SA (a company whose capital is represented by shares), but most shares are in the hands of the government. Swissair used to own 30% of the shares, but the government bought this back after the demise of Swissair.
ex-Sabena #26567
 
Treg
Posts: 488
Joined: Tue Oct 16, 2001 8:55 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:41 pm

If it is government owned then it is obviously political decision. Therefore they should privatize the company first and only then start to look for fleet renewal...

Just my humble opinion...
 
zvezda
Posts: 8891
Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 8:48 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Fri Oct 29, 2004 10:56 pm

I agree with Treg in principle, but fleet renewal might be urgent. Privatization takes time.
 
JoFMO
Posts: 1840
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2004 1:55 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 12:53 am

So they only want to buy long-haul planes or also narrow bodies?

Actually they are introducing the E70 and retiring their 735, right?

Are they planning to replace all their 735 with E/=?

What happens to their 734?

How many long-hauls do they want to buy? Actually they don't have a lot of long-haul routes. I think their actual North American schedule shouldn't need more than 4 planes.
 
iowa744fan
Posts: 906
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2004 1:31 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 1:53 am

With them being part of Star now I personally think they'll go with Airbus. Given that most other Star carriers have opted for Airbus as replacement aircraft, ie bmi, United, US, Spanair

Hmmm....SIA, ANA, ANZ, Varig....


Zvezda,

I completely agree with you that politics has no place in business. I just wish that there was some way that we could implement it. I figure that whichever way LOT goes, the decision will be largely political. Perhaps we will see a repeat of the THY order with aircraft from both companies. Perhaps a fleet of 73Gs, 738s, and 332s. Or perhaps a fleet of 319/320/321s and the 7E7 (with 763s until they come out) or maybe even the 777 (doubtful).
 
afay1
Posts: 1206
Joined: Mon Oct 29, 2001 2:37 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 2:36 am

No one has suggested that they continue with larger Embraer variants and supplement them with Tu-204 and IL-96 aircraft. There is no chance in hell of that happening, but its a thought....
 
keesje
Posts: 8854
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 2:49 am

7e7 or 332 seem most logical replacement.

if they want to replace in the coming yrs choice should be easy

however the recent f16 showed it is a ploitical thing

US military people openly expressed pride to have made the deal..

"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
konrad
Posts: 463
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2002 3:54 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:28 am

Actually the first 767 of LOT is 15 years old, the last one 7 years old only. They are all pretty much worn out, flying two 9-10 hour sectors per day (WAW-ORD/YYZ/JFK/EWR and return).

I think LOT will go for the A330-200 to keep its longhaul fleet limited to 4-5 aircraft with about 250 pax capacity. This fits their corporate policy which is extremly conservative. This is a polite way of saying that LOT has no expansion plan nowadays.

LOT has been biulding an east-Europe network starting from the 90s. At the beginning it was doing quite well flying connecting passengers between east-Europe (the Baltics, Minsk, the Ukraine etc.) and destinations in the West and in the US and Canada. Nowadays it seems that LOT doesn't even try to compete on these routes with CSA, Austrian, Air Baltic and others. CSA has been doing extremely well recently. Compare twice daily PRG-VNO/RIX/TLL runs, all served by 735/734 to daily WAW-VNO/RIX/TLL served by a mix of ER4/E70/AT7.

My personal opinion is that the only way for LOT to survive is to start a more agressive fight for the market share. To this effect I would rather see an increase in their U.S./Canada flights. This is the part of the market where they can compete with other "small players": CSA and Austrian. I think the 777 would make a better addition to the fleet as compared to 332 assuming they want to expand, not fold down. The 777 has a better cargo capacity which can be an advantage during the winter months - less pax, fly more cargo instead. Now to make this happen LOT needs to get its act together at the Warsaw airport to make it a true hub capable of handling large numbers of connecting passengers. This cannot be done now, the terminal is filled to the capacity, the whole airport seems to be badly organised. The long overdue Terminal 2 is to go into operation in 2006 only.

So for now the realistic scenario for LOT is A330-200 for long-haul. The classic 737s are also going to be replaced soon, the obvious replacement candidates being the 737NG or A320/319 series. Three of the 735s were already replaced by EMB-170 - another sign of shrinking and reducing capacity at LOT. It seems that except for premium routes like LHR/CDG most of the flying is now being done by the E70/ER4 mix with an odd 735 tossed in from time to time.

One other point: when LOT started buying Boeing aircraft at the beginning of 90s, and also recently, when F16 was chosen for the Polish Air Force the local politicians kind of expected that the contracts will be followed by American investments into the polish aircraft industry. Apart from some small deals like manufacturing of the 757 doors in Poland no large scale investments ever took place. I think that Airbus will have an advantage over Boeing if it can show plans of serious involvement in the polish industry.
 
Alessandro
Posts: 4962
Joined: Wed Sep 12, 2001 3:13 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 6:40 am

Afay1, why not the E195? As for Il-96 and Tu-204, no I don´t think so...
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
boeingbus
Posts: 1509
Joined: Sat May 29, 2004 12:37 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:10 am

"politics has no place in business"

True... but did you guys ever think that Airbus would have beeen 'groundbus' if politics wasn't involved? and that's not good...

Everything in life is political and some is based on good policy... so please don't ever think that politics will disappear or it's all bad. Politics does have a place in business... it just needs to be fair and sound.
Airbus or Boeing - it's all good to me!
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5438
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Sat Oct 30, 2004 7:42 am

I agree with Conrad on many points. However statement "This is a polite way of saying that LOT has no expansion plan nowadays. might be instead of absence of plan just reflection of reality. LOT's membership in Star along with many benefits also means that plans for expansion are subject to certain limits. LH and OS will not LO expand at their own expense.
Of course that with 40 million market at home and huge expat community in North America I'd see a great potential for that and fleet of 777s or 340s would be nothing inadequate.

I think it will be difficult for WAW to become a true hub since VIE has couple of decades advantage of being well-established long-haul hub. Let's not forget Austrian, a Star member, is based at VIE. PRG is getting close to VIE in number of pax handled, but mainly intra-European. OK and SV, KE are the only airlines flying long-haul to PRG.

No doubt politics will play its role in the decision-making. Unfortunately. There are thousands of Polish soldiers down in Iraq risking their asses for the sake of making the whole Bush's adventure look more legitimate and the US is not even willing to lift the idiotic visas for them or let Polish companies get some contracts down there. Way to treat an ally!!!
 
FlySSC
Posts: 5184
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 1:38 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 12:48 am

The B777 is too big for LOT.

The 7e7 will not be available before....too long !

The 767 is already an a/c of the past, even the B764.

The A333/332 seems the best a/c for LOT Long Haul operations.
On the other hand, they already operate a quite young fleet of B737 on their Short/Medium haul network.

A mix order of Airbus/Boeing would please everybody : Airbus (First order from LOT) Boeing (They don't appear as loosers ) and the Politics of both sides !  Wink/being sarcastic
 
Ken777
Posts: 9061
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 7:34 am

I also believe that it will be a split order. The race will be to see if they go a 7E7 with leased aircraft until delivery or a 350 with leased aircraft until delivery.

The balance between the two will show which way Poland is leaning in terms of alliances.
 
Lindy
Posts: 4722
Joined: Wed May 19, 1999 10:42 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 8:56 am

I don't know if you guys heard this, but pilots from LOT said: "if CEO doesn't resign from the post, they will go on strike".
The reason for this action was, that LOTs CEO already made plans to replace entire Boeing fleet with Airbus airplanes. Pilots didn't like it and stated that this is simply "wasting" of money. Company is in very bad shape and CEO is ading another nail in the coffin.
Boeing has offered LOT to refurbish, and maintain long haul fleet (for fraction of the regular price) if they order 7E7. First aircraft would join the fleet in 2008. And right now there is a conflict between LOTs pilots and management.

Amen,
Rafal
BWIADCA - Nikon D100
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5438
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:58 am

Pilot unions flexing their muscles and trying how much they can talk into running of the company is not the case of only LOT.
If the situation is indeed as Lindy describes, then it's almost perfect carbon copy of CSA's situation 2 years ago. At least when it comes to pilots vs. management relationship. Militant pilot unions CZALPA acting like there was no post 9/11 crisis no SARS, which CSA survived just fine and manged to even slightly expand. They demanded more than 100% increase in pay like there's no tomorrow and threat of strike was avoided literally at last minute. The unions eventually managed to bring down the previous rather conservative management and we'll see how the new guys will cope with their demands since new contract is negotiated as we speak.
 
FlySSC
Posts: 5184
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 1:38 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:03 pm

Pilots are in charge and paid to pilot planes. Not to run airlines and decide which a/c they should buy or not.
 
airlinelover
Posts: 5287
Joined: Thu Jun 07, 2001 8:03 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 6:30 pm

For those of you who think politics should have nothing to do with business- you are right.
For those of you who think politics HAS nothing to do with business, guess again.

A major part of businesses these days, both aviation and not, is pure politics. It really sucks, but it's true. Someone asked me what was the most different thing about working for an airline then I thought it would be, and I simply said "The politics".

Also, pilots DO make some difference in what an airline orders.

France, furious over the Lockheed purchase, suggested that the government in Warsaw was acting disloyally at a time when it should have been aligning itself much more closely to European industrial and foreign policy decisions.

I have a feeling France is going to cry foul whenever Boeing gets an order from here on in.. Not starting an A vs B war, but just my opinion.

Chris
Lets do some sexy math. We add you, subtract your clothes, divide your legs and multiply
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5438
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 8:43 pm

I have a feeling France is going to cry foul whenever Boeing gets an order from here on in...

Chris,
I think both Airbus and Boeing are equally guilty of that and with Boeing losing many bids recently they are agetting even worse than Airbus. Boeing cried foul with the CSA bid before the decision was even made.

Not starting an A vs B war, but just my opinion.
 
Leskova
Posts: 5547
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2003 3:39 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:17 pm

Chris/Airlinelover - if you're, as you state, "Not starting an A vs B war" but just expressing your opinion, then you might not want to express your opinion as outrageously one-sided as you did... simply adding a "then again, so does the US whenever Airbus wins a highly contested order" would have made your claim of "not starting an A vs B war" sound far less hollow.

As L410Turbolet has stated, both sides are guilty of this - neither Europe/France nor the US are anywhere even close to being "not guilty" on this issue...

As for the actual subject of this thread - I know it'll never happen, but I'd really prefer LOT to be able to select the planes that are actually best for them, and not best for whatever political gains might be made through one decision or another...

And the pilots think they have to put pressure on the company? With all due respect, but who do they think they are? Yes, they have an enormous responsibility, flying the planes and passengers every day - but I seriously doubt they have even close to the complete financial picture available that the decision-makers will, or at least should, have available: if the decision, based on facts, is made that a Boeing order is better for LOT, then so be it - but who are they to try to prevent an Airbus order if that should present a better financial picture for LOT???

I think that the pilot's input should be heard when selecting planes, after all, they'll be the ones flying them: but saying that ordering from Airbus would be wasting money, and actually (if this is really true) threatening to go on strike if an Airbus order were to be placed, thereby really wasting money by going on strike, seems like nothing more than a pissing contest between the pilots and management, with both trying to prove that they have more influence than the respective other side...

Regards,
Frank
Smile - it confuses people!
 
keesje
Posts: 8854
Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2001 2:08 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:38 pm

I think it is good to realize even the Netherlands export/imports more to Poland then the USA.

Germany is by far the most important import/ export partner for Poland (about 8 times as much as the US). Development subsidies / joint programs /projects the same..

http://baltic.mg.gov.pl/imp_ex/trade_2002.htm
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
codeshare
Posts: 1689
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2002 2:23 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 1:07 am

Layoffs in LOT are a fact. Apparently about 300 or so of crew are set to go. LOT want to cut costs heavily.

I agree with those saying pilots should fly and not run the airline. But, they are the ones that are going to actually fly the a/c, so they should have something to say. Another thing is if they don't want to switch to Airbus or whatever other maker, it can act to their disadvantage, because they will be only limited to a certain number of a/c types.

Personally I'd opt for the A330. It seems to suit LOT's needs in terms of range and capacity. It's a relatively bigger than the 763 and more advanced. As for the 764, it may be the right size, but LO would become the third airline to use it. That makes no sense. Although the pilots would need far less training.

It all depends on the package that is being offered by both producers.
On a side note, I suspect Airbus will be chosen, since the F-16 was selected as the fighter, to satisfy both sides politically (Poland and the EU). But I could be wrong...

BTW. France is upset about Poland selecting the F-16. How come they didn't offer the Rafale then?
How much A is there is Airliners Net ? 0 or nothing ?
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 2:20 am

A LOT of confusion and misinformation here.

1. Government never bought back 30% of shares that were owned by Swissair. Whoever is in charge of ex-Swissair assets (bankruptcy court??) still has control over these shares. Polish government has plans to sell another portion of shares to the public thru Warsaw Stock Exchange. Anyone interested?

2. Recent conflict in LOT was mainly between flight attendants and management not the pilots. Unfortunately many of them has to go. There is absolutely no reason to fly two FA in ATR-42 or ERJ-145. The same relates to other aircraft.

3. Yes LOT is in deep trouble with his archaic structure, socialist unions, way to many people, all of these resulting in HUUUGE costs. The were doing nothing throughout all the years that the airline market in Poland was protected and they had no real competition. With all the LCC booming in Poland their only answer so far was reduction of capacity. If that policy continues 737's will be replaced by EMB-190 as there will be no need for larger aircraft.

I am sorry to say that but LOT slowly becomes another Lufthansa Regional carrier. Just my $0,02.

Daniel
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 3924
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 2:35 am

@ Codeshare: The F16 selection had to do with quite a few offset deals requested and granted to Poland by the US/US companies. This had quite an effect on the intra-European market and has let to Germany being disappointed - something you probably shouldn´t do if this is the nation which buys most of your export products.

Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
Danny
Posts: 3714
Joined: Thu Apr 25, 2002 3:44 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:07 am

No offense Flying-Tiger but should we (I am Polish) remain farmer's country because that would be good for Germany?
There is 19% unemployment rate in Poland and every investment (especially in technology) is badly needed.
 
JoFMO
Posts: 1840
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2004 1:55 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:16 am

I agree with Danny. LOT doesn't have a lot of routes where they need airplanes bigger than an EMB190.
With only a few medium-sized aircrafts in need the A320 has more in common with the A330 than the different boing models have. Therefore I see Airbus in advantage against Boeing.
 
codeshare
Posts: 1689
Joined: Tue Sep 10, 2002 2:23 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 3:16 am

@Flying-Tiger: what does the F-16 offset have to do with Germany? France and Sweden/UK should be more dissapointed, because their offer wasn't accepted.
And what was the effect on the intra-European market?
How much A is there is Airliners Net ? 0 or nothing ?
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5438
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:10 am

The F16 selection had to do with quite a few offset deals requested and granted to Poland by the US/US companies.

Anyone with more insight: How many of these offset deals materialized so far into specific projects?
 
DIA
Posts: 3053
Joined: Sun Jan 28, 2001 2:24 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:23 am

Everyone should read Lindy's info in Reply 21 again. To me, that's where the story is at this moment in time. . .nothing more or less.

Ding! You are now free to keep supporting Frontier.
 
Flying-Tiger
Posts: 3924
Joined: Mon Aug 23, 1999 5:35 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 4:49 am

At least two deals for two large commercial vessels to be built at polish shipyards as part of these offset deals have so far materialized. Need to look up my data for specifics.
Flown: A319/320/321,A332/3,A380,AT4,AT7,B732/3/4/5/7/8,B742/4,B762/763,B772,CR2,CR7,ER4,E70,E75,F50/70,M11,L15,S20
 
magyar
Posts: 528
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2000 4:11 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:41 am

Danny wrote

>>
There is 19% unemployment rate
in Poland and every investment
(especially in technology) is badly needed.
<<

Yeap, Danny, that is most likely true, but
do not forget one thing, if the Germans
stop buying Polish products (for example
because they lose their job) you may soon
have to switch the digits in the above
number to get the correct unemployment
rate in Poland. Similar is not true if the
americans do the same .

What people in Eastern Europe needs to
realize that they joined the EU on May 1st
and not the US. It is way
more important for them what happens
in the EU than in the US.
 
L410Turbolet
Posts: 5438
Joined: Wed May 05, 2004 9:12 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:00 am

Magyar,
I agree with you... to a certain extent. However, buying aircraft purely based on criteria of politics makes no sense and leads nowhere. It would be stupid from JetBlue to buy Boeings if they feel Airbuses suit them better and Ryanair buying Airbuses only for the sake of the "made in" label.
We've been there before. Once again I can offer a story from the history of CSA. In late sixties, CSA needed to replace aging props and first generation of jets. 707s, VC-10s or DC-8s would be the most suitable, advanced, cheaper and efficient. To a little surprise the decision was made to buy Il-62s and Tu-134s. Economic factors were a non-issue.
I can only speculate whether Kadar's post-1956 "pact with the devil" included buying Russian hardware for Malév???
 
ariis
Posts: 387
Joined: Wed Sep 22, 2004 8:04 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:12 am

Konrad,

as far as I know, the US investment that should have followed the buying F-16's was actually part of the signed deal, so it is not that politicians expect it, but now the Americans must invest, no matter if they really want it or not (because this was the primary condition to start in the competition, and also part of the American offer in the race; btw, the value of investments had to be at least equal to the summarized price of all offered fighters). The fact that Americans are not eager to invest ever since, and that Polish government is not really pushing them to do so, is another political story.

Regarding the actual topic, I hope LOT will now make a wise decision and carefully consider, which aircraft to buy. A330 would probably be a good choice, but I personally would love to see B777 in LOT colors (not realistic though, at least not soon).

FAO
FAO - Flight Activities Officer
 
BlueSky1976
Posts: 1605
Joined: Tue Jul 20, 2004 9:18 am

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 11:48 am

Ariis,

777 in LOTs fleet isn't going to happen anytime soon - at least for as long as they have "We won't fly to Tokyo, because Lufthansa flies there" attitude.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
magyar
Posts: 528
Joined: Mon Feb 14, 2000 4:11 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Tue Nov 02, 2004 1:29 pm

L410Turbolet,

I did not say that aircrafts should be bought solely on political
basis. But we all know that there is politics involved, no matter
how aviation enthusiast despise that. And I just stated what
should be the guidelines IMHO in creating the proper political
balance.

Actually, the fighter plane order should be more politically
motivated than the commercial one.
E.g., what Hungary did (and perhaps Czech Republic will
do). Bought Grippens and then Malev ordered B737NG.
I do think that the B737NG-s make sense for Malev.
 
konrad
Posts: 463
Joined: Fri Mar 15, 2002 3:54 am

RE: Airbus Firms Plans For A350

Tue Nov 02, 2004 8:52 pm

Ariis:

I totally agree with you on the A330 vs. B777 sentiment.

My point in favor of B777 was that if LOT wants to survive as something more than another "Lufthansa Regional" they need to expand, not shrink. The only market in which they have the potential to compete against CSA and AUA is the North Atlantic. This is due to the relative weakness of both CSA and AUA in this market.

LOT had the chance to compete against the two by offering east-west intra-European connecting flights till a few year ago. It even started such an effort orchestrated by Swissair and the late Qualiflyer alliance. This opportunity is now gone as both Austrian and CSA have better networks east of WAW (and much better networks west of WAW, and much better hub airports).



BlueSky1776:

Good comment about the "We won't fly to Tokyo, because Lufthansa flies there" attitude. I wonder what is the real degree of control the big guys (LH, SK) have over smaller Star Alliance members. Please note that Lufthansa doesn't own any stake in LOT. Is some kind of market-division or protection agreed upon when a new airline is admitted into the alliance ?



Danny:

I think you summarized what was going on in LOT since the beginning of 90s in the best way. This is the real problem. Sometime I think a "healing bankruptcy" would be in order. Tough I would hate to see the LOT brand disappear altogether.

> Yes LOT is in deep trouble with his archaic structure, socialist unions,
> way too many people, all of these resulting in HUUUGE costs. The were
> doing nothing throughout all the years that the airline market in Poland
> was protected and they had no real competition. With all the LCC booming
> in Poland their only answer so far was reduction of capacity.
 
sllevin
Posts: 3312
Joined: Wed Jan 30, 2002 1:57 pm

RE: A Little LOT Problem: Boeing Or Airbus?!

Wed Nov 03, 2004 1:00 am

I suspect that LOT will end up taking some of the last 763's to be built by Boeing. The 763 has excellent economics (especially as LOT uses them) and the A330-200 is simply too much of a step upwards in capacity. LOT seems aimed (and smartly so, IMHO) at being a small flag carrier utilizing tools such as the Star Alliance to maximize profits, but not to attempt to grow and become the next Lufthansa.

Steve

Who is online