Horus
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Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 9:38 am

Egyptair have achieved an average loadfactor of 95.8% on their CAI-JFK-CAI flights during the period January 2004-October 2004 (inclusive).

MS operate 5x weekly flights (4 during the winter) with B772s. MS used to continue 2 of their JFK flights to YUL, but during the summer they are disconnected due to higher demand to JFK (as well as YUL).

MS985/986 achieved 93.6% loadfactor between January and April, then between May and September that rose to 97.6%. In addition, during July and August, the airline were 'forced' to add extra weekly flights (MS985A/986A) to meet demand.

When Omar El-Darwa (head of flight operation to North America) was asked why MS hasn't increased flights to New York yet, he said it was due to 2 main obstacles; first, MS's widebody aircraft are currently heavily utilised on Middle Eastern, European and Japanese flights, meaning they lacked the aircraft to increase JFK flights. Secondly the current bi-lateral agreement between the US and Egypt, needs to be revised to allow MS increase capacity. Though he indicated MS are planning to increase flights to daily for the summer 2005 period.

One interesting fact that was revealed was that passengers travelling to Southern Europe and South East Asia, were using MS's JFK flight, then connecting onto other MS flights to Athens, Larnaca and even Bangkok (yes, Bangkok). Though currently most connecting passengers continue onto various points in the Middle East.


Egyptair at JFK:


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Horus

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planenutz
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 10:01 am

HORUS: Does MS still have the huge mix of widebopies? I believe at one time it included 747s, A340s, 777s, and A330s, and A300s.
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ramerinianair
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 10:09 am

Well, there is no America airline on the route any more. TW was the last I knew of, LAX-JFK-CAI.
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Horus
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 10:19 am

Planenutz, The 2 B743s were retired earlier this year. The A300s are being replaced one-by-one with A332s (currently 2 A330s have arrived). This will leave MS with a long haul fleet of A332s, A342s and B772s.

Ramerinianair, DL was in fact the last American carrier. They quit the route on October 15, 2001. They operated 4x weekly MD-11 flights routing JFK-CAI-DXB-CAI-JFK. Apparently they were to re-introduce the flights on March 15, 2002 but that never materialised. TW quit the route on the 28th Septemer 2001. They operated 6x weekly B763 flights routing JFK-CAI-RUH-CAI-JFK.

Hopefully a US carrier might decide to start CAI flight in the future.


Horus

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HB-IWC
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 10:49 am

Hopefully a US carrier might decide to start CAI flight in the future.

That would have to be CO or AA then, as DL doesn't seem in the position of getting involved in these kind of ventures at this moment. It is amazing, though, how many markets are left untapped by American companies where money is likely to be made.

In the Middle East, there's no American presence to speak of with the exception of TLV. But no American carriers can take you to the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan or the like. Also the West African market is up for grabs, with voids left by Air Afrique, Ghana Airways and Nigeria Airways unfilled. Witrh regard to this, nothing seems to be coming from CO's attempt to serve LOS. Also the South African market is without American presence.

Rather to try and serve these and other markets, American carriers seem to largely contend themselves with serving some of the destinations mentioned through European codeshares. I wonder whether there's really no money to be made on some of those sectors, or whether American companies are just not willing to take the risk and venture out...

 
behramjee
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:17 am

Horus...what is or was the final status of MSs B 763ERs?

Also even though loads are vv good on MSs JFK flights...how are yields and occupancy in F and J classes year round on this route?

MS btw had once a fleet consisting of B 743s, B 777-200s, B 767-300ERs, A 340-200s, AB6s and B 737-500s. They are in the process of receiving A 346s, A 320s and A 332s.

Horus, I heard that MS want to start IAH nonstop with A 342s from CAI? Any truth to that? Also is there a market for MS in LAX area still nonstop with A 342 as it seemed so until their B 763 crashed off NYC in 1998.
 
moman
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:22 am

When did EgyptAir get rid of their 767's? I know a 763 is the jet that crashed in the Atlantic in Oct. 1999, and the NTSB said pilot suicide was the cause, but the Egyptians didn't like it.

Moman
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N1120A
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 06, 2004 1:04 pm

Well, considering that LAX-CAI is 6609nm, they could fly the 772ER without a problem
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Horus
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sun Nov 07, 2004 3:55 am

That would have to be CO or AA then, as DL doesn't seem in the position of getting involved in these kind of ventures at this moment. It is amazing, though, how many markets are left untapped by American companies where money is likely to be made.

HB-IWC, I absolutely agree with you there. I think AA are more likely to enter the market then any other US carrier, but that won't be in the forceeable future due to their financial situation. I can imagine insurance premiums would be abit higher, but the idea that a US airliner would find it dangerous to operate into the Arab world is rubbish. Some people seem to have this perception that a US carrier would be under constant threat of attack, but that stems out of ignorance. One only needs to see how American tourists are treated in places like Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, UAE, etc. They are treated exceptionally well and treat their hosts with the same degree of respect and their numbers are increasing.


Horus...what is or was the final status of MSs B 763ERs?

Behramjee, Egyptair retired their last B763ER (SU-GAO) back in 2001. The last 767 was traded in with Boeing as a part of deal for a further 2 B772s (since delivered).


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Also even though loads are vv good on MSs JFK flights...how are yields and occupancy in F and J classes year round on this route?

Well JFK is one of the top 5 most profitable destinations for MS. Also considering that 95.8% loadfactor, lets assume that Y class has 100% occupancy (which it probably isn't), then the premium cabins would be at the very least 65% full. MS's 777s are configured with 319 seats (12F/21C/286Y)


MS btw had once a fleet consisting of B 743s, B 777-200s, B 767-300ERs, A 340-200s, AB6s and B 737-500s. They are in the process of receiving A 346s, A 320s and A 332s.

Yes, MS did operate a very diverse fleet back in the 90s but this has and is still changing.

The airline is not in the process of getting A346s or A320s. The A346 order (2 firm + 2 options) was cancelled in 2003 when they ordered 7 A332s. There have been rumours they will re-order the aircraft to replace the capacity lost with the retirement of the 747s earlier this year. As for the A320s, MS recieved the last 5 on order in October/November last year. They were supposed to replace the B735s but the airline experienced a huge increase on domestic/regional services that they've decided to keep the Baby Boeing for longer, so expect further A320 orders in the future to replace them.

As for the A300-600R they are being replaed one-by-one with 7 A332s. They currently have 2 A332s, with the third arriving next month.

So this will leave the airline with a fleet consisting of A320s, A321s, A332s, A342s and B772s.


Horus, I heard that MS want to start IAH nonstop with A 342s from CAI? Any truth to that? Also is there a market for MS in LAX area still nonstop with A 342 as it seemed so until their B 763 crashed off NYC in 1998.

Unfortunately MS have decided against launching long-haul flights to IAH and HKG. This decision was taken in April, when the airline started its major restructuring which lead to axeing 14 routes and increasing frequency on other routes. However I was told that when they do start long haul flights it will either be IAH, HKG or SHA.

As for LAX services, they were terminated back in 2002 due to security screening issues. The flights operated CAI-JFK-LAX-JFK-CAI and the security measures introduced after 9/11 meant passengers had to disembark at New York to go through the security checks. This meant extra hassle, decreasing aircraft utilisation and the lose of revenue. So I doubt they'll launch flights there in the forceeable future, and even then I doubt it would be non-stop.


When did EgyptAir get rid of their 767's? I know a 763 is the jet that crashed in the Atlantic in Oct. 1999, and the NTSB said pilot suicide was the cause, but the Egyptians didn't like it.

Moman, Egyptair operated 2 B763s, SU-GAP crashed soon after take off from JFK and SU-GAO was retired in 2001 (currently with Eritrean Airlines). And yes the Egyptian authorites refuted NTSB's conclusion. There were a number of factors that were not been fully investigated, and it certainly wasn't a case of the 'Egyptians didn't like it' as you put it. But that is a different (complicated and long) topic altogether.


Well, considering that LAX-CAI is 6609nm, they could fly the 772ER without a problem

N1120a, indeed the 777 can fly the route but the market is not big enough to sustain a profitable service at this time, maybe in the future.


Horus


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planenutz
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sun Nov 07, 2004 5:27 am

HORUS:

Why wouldn't MS extend its YUL service onward to LAX? Load factors for at least one frequency a week should be ample to serve the southern California market. Because the flight would be routed through YUL, no additional security screening would be required.

or, why not operate to LAX via a European capital?
Not all who wander are lost....
 
Korg747
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sun Nov 07, 2004 5:56 am

//They were supposed to replace the B735s but the airline experienced a huge increase on domestic/regional services that they've decided to keep the Baby Boeing for longer, so expect further A320 orders in the future to replace them.//

Actually I think the A319s with the IAE engine choice would be a very good choice.
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Horus
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:07 am

Why wouldn't MS extend its YUL service onward to LAX? Load factors for at least one frequency a week should be ample to serve the southern California market. Because the flight would be routed through YUL, no additional security screening would be required.

Planenutz, that probably is true but you have to bear in mind that even though the airline might be able to fill a weekly flight, the yeilds would be terrible as it would mainly aim the Californian tourists visiting Egypt. Hence the service would be lose-making. If frequency was 3x weekly then the service might be profitable as it would offer the most direct service from the US West coast to the Middle East attracting business passengers (even though LY does serve LAX, no Arabs use the airline due to discrimination). Havin said that if EK eventually begin LAX services, then I doubt MS would compete with them in the market. Unfortuantely the LAX market is just not big (or profitable) enough.


or, why not operate to LAX via a European capital?

That would mean the airline trying to get fifth freedom rights between the European city and LAX which would be difficult. Also MS have a policy of serving the Egyptian market directly, so stopping off in Europe would not be on the card.


Actually I think the A319s with the IAE engine choice would be a very good choice.

Korg747, in fact the A318 would make more sence than A319 due to the exact same seating capacity. Originally the airline had ordered 5 A318s to replace the B735s but due to engine problems and delays with P&W, the airline coverted the order to the larger A320. To e honest I'm hoping they go for regional jets (something which until recently was planned) as it would mean greater frequency on the domestic route, meaning greater appeal to business passengers.


Horus

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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:13 am

I really don't understand how a market of 20 million people is too small for anything. Also, considering the amount of money in Southern California, some of that leisure traffic will be in forward cabins anyway. Also, considering LAX's status as one of the premier cargo airports in the world, I would think you could fill the belly too. Additionally, you could market the flight to Iranians flying back and forth (Why do you think LH, BA, and KL flights are always full?) along with other middle easterners who prefer not to connect through europe?
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The777Man
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:54 am

Glad to hear that EgyptAir is doing very well to JFK!

Think it's too bad that they stopped flying to LAX; the last airline from Africa to serve LAX. I miss seeing the MS 777s at LAX....

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
Horus
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Tue Nov 09, 2004 7:32 am

N1120a, indeed California as a whole has a large population, but that alone does not guarantee a viable market. The same can be said of Beijing (or China) where MS were not able it make it work (though I have to admit just a month into the new service, the SARs outbreak occurred, followed by the Iraq war). In addition, even though Californians may have large disposable incomes for travelling it still is no assurance that MS can fill their flights.

And I am aware that the largest Iranian communities outside Iran are in Los Angeles (and Tokyo) but I think you forget that Egypt and Iran do not have any diplomatic or economic relations (due to Iran's support for the assassination of President Anwar Al-Sadat). As for promoting the flights to other Middle Eastern countries, as I said before that would be lucrative as the only alternative is LY (and no Arab would want to fly them due to discrimination).

Besides I'm sure if such a service was profitable, then MS would have re-launched it again. I hope they do in the years to come.


The777Man, I hope they go back to LAX too


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Horus

EGYPT: A 7,000 Year Old Civilisation
 
BA
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Tue Nov 09, 2004 7:55 am

My aunt used to fly LAX-JFK-CAI all the time on Egyptair, originally on 767s, then later on 777s to visit my grandmother. Ever since they discontinued the service, she's been flying Air NewZealand, American Airlines, or British Airways from LAX to LHR, and then British Airways from LHR to CAI.

I think CAI-YUL-LAX would make a lot of sense and be successful. As have mentioned already, passengers continuing to LAX would not have to deboard and go through customs like they would have to do if the flight stopped in the US.

The rule here in the US is all passengers on an international flight need to clear customs and immigration at the first US gateway.

My sister once flew DEN-EWR-LHR-EWR-DEN. She told me it was a pain getting off in Newark to clear customs and immigration and then getting back on the plane.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
bartond
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Tue Nov 09, 2004 8:44 am

Horus - on a side note, how do you find information like "...the largest Iranian community outside of Iran is in L.A. and Tokyo." I hear things like that all the time on this forum and I never know how people figure this. Often times two people from two different places will say their city has the biggest population of expats from the same country, so it's tough to take much from these types of comments.

I'm not doubting you, but I just want to know where I can find information like this.
 
The777Man
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Tue Nov 09, 2004 4:41 pm

Perhaps MS could get fifth freedom rights LAX-YUL-LAX like LY has on LAX-YYZ-LAX ?

The777Man
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Horus
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 2:31 am

BA, a CAI-YUL-LAX route would make sence, especially considering it would remove the mandatory security checks a stop in the US would cause. This security screening process used to effect MS when they operated CAI-JFK-YUL flights. Passengers making Canada their final destination would have to de-board, causing them inconvenience as well as impacting the airline ('wasting' money, time and aircraft utilisation). At one point the airline was to re-route the flights CAI-YUL-JFK, but after a feasability study they decided against this, instead introducing non-stop dedicated flights to each city.

About serving the LAX market, I'm still skeptical about the viability of such a service. Yes, they'd probably fill a weekly flight but yields would be low, whilst operating 3x weekly flights would attract premium passengers I doubt the market is big enough to fill 3 widebodies a week, especially with the current political climate...maybe in the future.


Bartond, I read it in the Homa Magazine (IR's inflight magazine). It had an interesting article about the 15 million Iranians living abroad. Los Angles had the largest community, followed by Tokyo and then Scandinavia. Hope this helps


The777Man, I suppose it is possible to get fifth freedom rights between YUL and LAX. Currently there's only a daily flight on the route with an AC A319 (AC797). Are the Canadian authorities 'liberal' about giving fifth freedom rights?


Horus

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The777Man
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 2:40 am

Horus, I'm not sure if the Canadian authorities are liberal about fifth freedom rights but El Al got it on YYZ-LAX so I think it's possible for MS to get it on LAX-YUL as well.

I think that with having convenient connections at CAI to BEY, DAM, AMM etc, MS could once again get some of that traffic. I don't really see how that much has changed since they last served LAX.

Thanks for your reply!

The777Man
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flyyul
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 2:53 am

777man,

A YUL stop, or any stop for that matter from a LAX standpoint, is not a good option for Egyptair.

Lufthansa, KLM, Swiss, Air France, British Airways will be providing a better product to CAI, BEY, AMM, DAM by offering a 1 stop as well (via their hubs). Their services are daily, Egyptair would be what... 2 or 3 weekly?

In order for Egyptair to get superior market share out of LAX, they would need a non-stop. Egyptair doesnt have the aircraft to ensure a nonstop on this market, especially not if a 2 or 3 weekly operation (for efficiency purposes 5 weekly MINIMUM).

Tragically, when Egyptair 990 went down, only 35 of the 180 pax where LAX origins.

Tags dont work... they work for LY, but LY isnt chasing profit on YYZ-TLV. Their Canadian GM clearly said in the Canadian media that the route was not profitable, but there were other reasons for its operation  Smile



 
The777Man
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:09 am

FLYYUL, I see your point but EgyptAir also competes with price in many markets; it is usually a lot less expensive to fly on MS rather than on EK, BA, AF etc. Having a fare of USD 1000-1200 from LAX to CAI, AMM etc would certainly entice people to fly MS vs BA or AF.

I know that the loads from LAX to CAI wasn't very high when the flight was via JFK but I think that they could do better via YUL and certainly so if they would have 5th freedom rights.

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
flyyul
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:16 am

A fare of $1000 on a 777/320 combo AMM-CAI-YUL-LAX would be terribly low yielding.

You will see in Egyptair in YYZ before LAX sadly.

A nonstop suggest that you will get some kind of price premium. A 1 stop, then its bombs away with your competitors who can get you to AMM via CDG just as fast AMM via YUL and CAI. See what im getting at?

 
The777Man
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:26 am

I see what you are getting at, but remember that costs for MS are probably a lot lower than BA etc. Like I said, MS already undercuts many carriers in many markets and probably still make a profit. With fares several hundreds of dollars lower than the competition, I think MS can have a chance of getting a decent amount of traffic from LAX and other places.

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
flyyul
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:28 am

I disagree.

Egyptair will not suceed with a 1 stop via YUL. They tried via JFK, its was unsuccesful and I doubt the same would happen for a stop via YUL. As for 5th freedom on YUL-LAX, who is goign to buy a ticket on Egyptair from Montreal to Los Angeles 2 times a week  Big thumbs up

 
BA
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:29 am

The Eastern European carriers such as CSA offer very very competitive connections from North America and Beirut by offering much cheaper fares than the Western European airlines.

Regards
"Generosity is giving more than you can, and pride is taking less than you need." - Khalil Gibran
 
SOU146
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:26 am

Horus,

Do you know whats going to happen to the A300-600's....??

I flew last September SSH - CAI - SSH on one of those. Was very surpised at the time as I expected something a little smaller but the aircraft was still full.

 
Horus
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:35 am

FLYYUL,

I will have to go with The777Man on this one. If MS were to start a LAX service then they'd be able to attract passengers that wish to travel to other points in the Middle East. Yes a stop in YUL (or any other point) would make things more difficult but it won't hinder the success in such a market. But you have to remember such a flight's main target is the market between LAX and Egypt (tourists, expats and business) so connecting passengers would be smaller in numbers.

If you look that the last paragraph in my first post, you'll see that MS's JFK flights have passengers with final destinations outside Egypt using them:

One interesting fact that was revealed was that passengers travelling to Southern Europe and South East Asia, were using MS's JFK flight, then connecting onto other MS flights to Athens, Larnaca and even Bangkok (yes, Bangkok). Though currently most connecting passengers continue onto various points in the Middle East

Passengers flying into Europe, Africa and South East Asia use MS, even though it means many extra hours of flying. This is mainly due to the competitive airfares they offer as well as good on-board service and an extensive route network. Also market trends have changed significantly compared to say 10 years ago. People are willing to spend extra time flying if the price (and service) are right.

Egyptair doesnt have the aircraft to ensure a nonstop on this market, especially not if a 2 or 3 weekly operation (for efficiency purposes 5 weekly MINIMUM).

The 772ER is capable of a non-stop (reply 7) though there might be some restrictions. 3 weekly frequency can be considered to be enough, once you look at the size of the market.

A fare of $1000 on a 777/320 combo AMM-CAI-YUL-LAX would be terribly low yielding.

I can assure you airfares are higher than $1000...remember an airline is a business and needs to generate profits (sorry for pointing out the obvious)

You will see in Egyptair in YYZ before LAX sadly

MS serving YYZ is only a rumor as is AC serving CAI.

Egyptair will not suceed with a 1 stop via YUL. They tried via JFK, its was unsuccesful and I doubt the same would happen for a stop via YUL.

The CAI-JFK-LAX flights were far from unsuccessful, in fact they were one of the airline's 'cash-cow' routes back in the 90s. It was axed 4 months after 9/11 due to the drop in passenger numbers experienced worldwide. Many airlines terminated numerous routes after 9/11, but that doesn't mean they weren't profitable before.

Horus

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Horus
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:49 am

Hey SOU146

Do you know whats going to happen to the A300-600's....??

They are currently in the process of replacing their A300-600Rs with 7 brand new A332s. The first A332 was delivered in June, and they currently have 2; SU-GCF and SU-GCE (third coming next month). By late next year all A332s should have arrived and the 7 A300s would have been disposed of.


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I flew last September SSH - CAI - SSH on one of those. Was very surpised at the time as I expected something a little smaller but the aircraft was still full.

Yeah, MS do use their A300s extensively on the major domestic routes from CAI to SSH/HRG/LXR/ASW. Though as the A300s are retired, they will be increasing frequency on the routes with A320s and B735s. The latter should have been retired last year, but due to the huge increase in demand for domestic/regional services they have decided to keep them for a while longer.

Anyway I hope you had a great time in Sharm El Sheikh. Did you visit any places in the south like luxor or Aswan?


Horus

EGYPT: A 7,000 Year Old Civilisation
 
flyyul
Posts: 4394
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2000 11:25 am

RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:52 am

Horus,

I know your a big Egyptair guy, and thats really cool. However, its unfair for you to determine the exact causes and how "profitable" flights are etc.

So I ask you to put yourself in the shoes of a traveller.. you have two options

1.) AMM-CAI-YUL-LAX price: $1200 RT time to get there: 15 hours

2.) AMM-CDG-LAX price : $1300 RT time to get there: 12.5 hours

Sources: Expedia.com and travelocity.com

Now tell me which one is going to be succesful?

Now lets examine yield... yield is determined by using the fare over the mileage. A 777 (a higher cost machine) would have to fly over 8000 MILES (!!!!) to do AMM-CAI-YUL-LAX (granted the AMM-CAI is an A320 or equivalent).... so now you can see why the yield is quite crappy  Big thumbs up

So lets also talk about pax preference, especially business traveler. The guy who is going to pay $6000 for a full J ticket, is not going to want to stop in Montreal and Cairo to get where he is going. He will take Air France, British Airways, Lufthansa etc.... so Egyptair is scrapping the barrel and getting the low-yield "VFR" client.

Lastly lets talk about frequency. Egyptair is not going to send one of its valuable 777's on a 2 or 3 weekly possibility to half way across the world.

Horus, if CAI is a middle-east hub, and that is the intent for Egyptair, then Egyptair has to go against the very network driven airlines such as Air France, KLM, Lufthansa etc. Egyptair WILL NOT be able to compete without providing a LAX-CAI NON-STOP.

You will probably argue that YUL has the same VFR market dynamics as LAX etc. Well YUL is a closer link to CAI. From YUL, CAI can provide competitive itineraries to the middle east, almost as well as anybody else.

However, when Egyptair did YUL-JFK-CAI, their loads were around average 40-50 pax MAXIMUM! Why? How does Egyptair go from 300 pax in the summer to 40 in the winter?

-Seasonality
-But direct non-stop link!

Tags work, but only on a short-haul. For example, a YYZ-YUL-ATH-BEY itinerary with OA CAN be just as competitive as a YYZ-CDG-BEY. However a LAX-YUL-ATH-BEY would be disastrous.

So in a nutshell, this is why LAX just doesnt work. This is why LAX is not a Euro or Middle East VFR destination, and this is precisely why Egyptair cut LAX, and has yet to return (doubtful that it will until a nonstop could be assured)!

Try to fully understand what I am saying before you decided to rebut!

Cheers!



 
Horus
Topic Author
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RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:30 am

FLYYUL,

I read you post and I understand that you have a good understanding about aviation but your comment, ’However, its unfair for you to determine the exact causes and how "profitable" flights are’ can be thrown right back at you. In my analysis of the situation I was simply stating facts already presented by the airline as well as considering some market trends.

Now please don’t forget that in my previous posts I have already mentioned several times that I doubt a LAX route would be viable especially with the current world affairs. My arguments here are hypothetical and assume better market conditions in the future.

Now as for the options you presented for getting from AMM to LAX, they seem to be inaccurate as flying the YUL-LAX sector would be with another airline (not MS) which would increase the fare.

As for yields, you seem to be basing it on a reduced economy airfare, which is hardly a basis when considering overall profitability/yields. Premium airfares (F and Y tickets) are considered the ‘bread and butter’ of an airline so you cannot ignore them.

Besides as I have pointed out before, such a flight would cater for the LAX-Egypt market (O&D traffic), and any connecting passengers would not be as significant (though still important)

As for premium class travellers, it is not as clear-cut as you made it. Indeed frequency and timing are important but you have to remember businesses are more cost conscience now (then say 10 years ago) so they’re willing to make sacrifices. For example; many send their employees travelling at the ‘back of the tube’ to save money, which can indirectly be associated with the demise of First class with many world-class airlines (and to a lesser extent the success of LCCs). My point is, if the price and service levels are right then a business traveller would not mind an extra few hours of travel. Having said that I am not saying that Egyptair won’t be at a competitive disadvantage because they would be, but they will make it up in other ways.

As for Egyptair not sending ‘valuable’ 777s (or any wide-body) on 3x weekly outings, just look at JNB (2x weekly), BKK (2x weekly), NRT (3x weekly) or Osaka (3x weekly). Now yes frequency is important, but if the market is not big enough to warrant say a daily service, then it would be uneconomical of an airline to do so. I agree that a twice-weekly flight would not attract business clients, but I think 3x weekly can just about attract them.

Regarding it being a non-stop or a 1 stop service, I am sure a LAX service would be with a stop at least until a market grows to sustain non-stop (MS have always launched North American destinations with a stop until it develops and upgrading it to non-stop later). Yes that extra stop will make BA/AF/LH services more attractive, but MS will on the other hand make provisions to make the service appealing (price, service, bigger M.E/African network, etc).

You pointed out that YUL has the ‘same VFR market dynamics as LAX’ but with closer relations to CAI. Now I can see why you would say that but it can also be argued that YUL eventually became a non-stop service (at least during summer) not only due to the increase in the O&D market, but also for ease of travel for the large number of connecting passengers. That could be the same with LAX, where it could progress from 1-stop to non-stop, but connecting passengers would still use its 1-stop service.

As for passenger numbers on the YUL-JFK-CAI route being lower in the winter then YUL-CAI (for the summer), well that is down to seasonal changes in demand. The large Egyptian community in YUL return back home in the summer as well as Canadian travellers holidaying in Egypt. The fact the service become 1-stop in the winter is associated more to the drop in seasonal demand, rather than a drop because the flights become 1-stop.

And as I said in my previous post LAX was terminated after 9/11 because the global drop in passenger numbers and not because the service was 1-stop to CAI. The airline had been operating CAI-JFK-LAX for nearly 10 years profitably. Had it been at a lose during that period (excluding pre 9/11) then the airline would have axed it before.


It’s obvious that we have very different opinions about this matter, and I hope you can respect mine…I guess we just have to agree on disagreeing.

Horus


p.s. I noticed in another thread that AC's plan to serve BEY and Tehran have re-surfaced. Do you think they will ever take off? Any news on AC flying YYZ-CAI?
EGYPT: A 7,000 Year Old Civilisation
 
SOU146
Posts: 51
Joined: Tue Jun 08, 2004 3:46 am

RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Fri Nov 12, 2004 4:13 am

Hey Horus, thanks for the answers.....!!

'Anyway I hope you had a great time in Sharm El Sheikh. Did you visit any places in the south like luxor or Aswan?'

Yep I had a brilliant time in Sharm, especially snorkiling, I couldn't get enough of it, went through about 5 under water disposable camera's....!! Quad biking across the desert and dusk was equally amazing and the heat (which I really enjoy) was nice just to laze in (which holidays are all about eh).

I did book to go to Luxor but my girlfriend but at the time she was ill so we had to cancel, a shame as I would have liked to have gone. Other then Cairo, we never made it out of Sharm.
 
flyyul
Posts: 4394
Joined: Sun Jun 25, 2000 11:25 am

RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Fri Nov 12, 2004 5:12 am

"Now as for the options you presented for getting from AMM to LAX, they seem to be inaccurate as flying the YUL-LAX sector would be with another airline (not MS) which would increase the fare."

-Horus... im talking about total trip cost. Ive got these prices using travelocity and expedia.

"As for yields, you seem to be basing it on a reduced economy airfare, which is hardly a basis when considering overall profitability/yields. Premium airfares (F and Y tickets) are considered the ‘bread and butter’ of an airline so you cannot ignore them. "

-Yes.. but the total average fare is what needs to be considered, less than 10%-15% of your pax will be premium, as a golden rule.

"As for passenger numbers on the YUL-JFK-CAI route being lower in the winter then YUL-CAI (for the summer), well that is down to seasonal changes in demand. The large Egyptian community in YUL return back home in the summer as well as Canadian travellers holidaying in Egypt. The fact the service become 1-stop in the winter is associated more to the drop in seasonal demand, rather than a drop because the flights become 1-stop."

-No its poor planning on Egyptair's part. Egyptair didnt realize that a certain portion of their traffic is beyond traffic from CAO (BEY/AMM/DAM etc). These pax travelling with families, are not willing to stop in JFK, then CAI, when they can go AF,LX,LH,AC etc. Demand drops off in the winter, but not off a cliff. You dont go from 300 pax per flight to 40 pax without asking yourself some questions.

Horus, LAX can be succesful if the proper conditions are met. A nonstop with enough frequencies would have to provided.

The point I was trying to make is that a YUL or JFK stop will not help MS's cause.




 
PresRDC
Posts: 512
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 1999 5:00 am

RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Fri Nov 12, 2004 5:13 am

When I flew MS JFK-CAI in F this past February, the load was 1 revenue passenger (me) in F, plus two relief MS pilots and one of the two security guys.

The fare was also very, very low. $1500 one way for full-fare F.
 
TLVFred
Posts: 147
Joined: Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:43 am

RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:04 am

"only alternative is LY (and no Arab would want to fly them due to discrimination)."


Horus - re your comment above.

What do you mean discrimination? Yes they would get extra security checks - surely you understand why.

But Horus remember even a Christian with Israel stamped in his passport isnt allowed to even enter places like Bangladesh etc let alone an Israeli or a Jew.

Dont tell me an Israeli on MS would not be 'discriminated' against as you percieve it is with LY.

Arabs who are Israeli citizens with Israeli passports are treated on LY just like any other passenger.

Lets leave politics out of the forum.
 
Horus
Topic Author
Posts: 5131
Joined: Sun Feb 22, 2004 1:04 am

RE: Egyptair Achieve 95%+ Loads To JFK

Sat Nov 13, 2004 4:08 am

SOU146, Great to hear you had such a brilliant time (shame about the other half falling ill though). I tried the quad-biking (some Egyptians call them beach buggies). It was fantastic. We set of at sunset getting a great view of the sun and mountains. Did they take you to the Bedouin tents in the desert, where they serve that special tea?

Did you fly BA to get from LHR to CAI? Also were both CAI-SSH and SSH-CAI flights with MS A300?


FLYYUL

Horus... im talking about total trip cost. Ive got these prices using travelocity and expedia.

I know, but my point is that you cannot speculate that that’ll be MS’s airfare if they launch LAX.

Yes.. but the total average fare is what needs to be considered, less than 10%-15% of your pax will be premium, as a golden rule.

But basing you assumptions on an inaccurate airfare that you got from a website that offer the cheapest/best deals is not the right way to make an assumption. Yes premium passengers are off course much smaller in numbers compared to Y passengers but there contribution is more significant…quality is more important than quantity.

No its poor planning on Egyptair's part. Egyptair didnt realize that a certain portion of their traffic is beyond traffic from CAO (BEY/AMM/DAM etc). These pax travelling with families, are not willing to stop in JFK, then CAI, when they can go AF,LX,LH,AC etc. Demand drops off in the winter, but not off a cliff. You dont go from 300 pax per flight to 40 pax without asking yourself some questions.

That is your view, but I’m sure the airline took the best course of action taking account the market conditions. And yes YUL is a very seasonal market, hence why the service was been temporarily suspended during the winter, so that must indicate to you the drop in passenger numbers. And I’m actually very interested to how you got the figure of 40 passengers because my sources put it at almost 170.

Even now when MS operate direct JFK-CAI flight there are still a large number of passengers who travel via Europe with BA/AZ/LH (1-stop services) because the price is more competitive.

Horus, LAX can be succesful if the proper conditions are met. A nonstop with enough frequencies would have to provided.

Can you then explain to me the profitability of the service when it was running between 1993 and 2002?

The point I was trying to make is that a YUL or JFK stop will not help MS's cause.

Please understand that I agree with your comment and it does make sense, but what I am trying to get across to you is that a 1-stop service would still be successful (even with connecting passengers)


PresRDC, I guess there are days when loads would be lighter than usual, but considering they achieved 95.8% loads on the route so far this year that would indicate that premium cabins would be pretty much full (when taking into account seating capacity).


TLVFred, I was pointing out the fact that Arabs would not fly say MIA-TLV-CAI or LAX-TLV-AMM with LY because they would be subjected to extra security checks (some which are very intrusive) simply because of their nationality and/or religion. But as you pointed out the same would be with Israelis (not Jews) who fly with some Arab airlines. Having said that you only need to look at how successful 4D's and LY's CAI-TLV flights are and RJ's AMM-TLV (Arkia's AMM-TLV flights are operating at a lose but for political reasons must be sustained). It is difficult to ignore politics when discussing this specific issue.


Horus

EGYPT: A 7,000 Year Old Civilisation