travisnc
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RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 12:53 pm

It seems like United has cancelled their one nonstop flight between RDU and DEN (after previously dropping it from twice daily to once daily). I can't find it in the schedules after January 5, 2005.

I still don't get it. RDU has higher O&D to DEN than CLE, CMH, CVG, BNA, and MEM, but still no service. Even BHM with 79 O&D passengers/day (to RDU's 273) to DEN still has both of their United Express flights (started around same time as RDU).
 
iowaman
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 12:58 pm

Interesting, I would think between O&D and all of the connecting traffic it could have been supported.
 
BH346
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:03 pm

It always isn't just about loads and O&D passengers, yields factor in as well. However, with no LCC competition in the market and with RDU generally being a high-yield market(lots of business travel from RTP), I'm not really sure.
Northwest Airlines - Some People Just Know How to Fly
 
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ERJ170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:08 pm

Well, UAL did say they were going to be cutting domesticate routes.. seems RDU was one of those routes yet again.. first the downgrade from mainline, now the cancellation of service.. UAL is not making a good name for itself in this area..

but I don't think that RDU-DEN will be gone for long.. We may see a critter tail on that route IMHO.. the question if not if, but when.. seems like a golden opportunity for F9 to make their move.. There are open gates and the route (seem profitable on 2 70 seat RJ) could probably support 2 318 flights..
Aiming High and going far..
 
RDUDDJI
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:11 pm

I know UAX (Mesa) has alot of performance issues with this long distance CRJ-700 flight. I don't know if that has anything to do with it. I know from friends at RDU that the flight has a very high load factor and is often weight restricted.

Also...my information shows the flight(s) in GDS all the way through June (that's as far ahead as I looked)
Sometimes we don't realize the good times when we're in them
 
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ERJ170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:14 pm

UAL has it through 05Jan05. shameful..
Aiming High and going far..
 
uadc8contrail
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:52 pm

erj170,
dont count den-rdu out just yet....if it is cut it will show in apollo by the end of this month as jan uax shed should be in their by the 29th or 30th.....if the loads are that good(and the rasm is good) i can not see them cutting the flight.....but we should have a ball park idea what ual exit plan is before then as bridge&assoc are expected to deliver their report to ual,afa and the iam...could see some hub flight cuts maybe.......
bus driver.......move that bus:)
 
flyibaby
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:59 pm

Weight restriction is the word. On a normal day, with the first class config. on these CR7's, out of 64 seats, usually only 55 passengers could go and about 30 bags. If the conditions are perfect in RDU, DEN and enroute, then there is the slight possibility it would be able to go full, passenger wise. There is plenty of demand, they were just giving themselves a black eye with the denied passenger issues, and Mesa's A/C reliability/on time performance to RDU. Good idea, wrong aircraft.
 
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ERJ170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:09 pm

Well, I would have sent an email to F9 requesting expedited service to RDU since UA was dropping the route.. but they have no email way to contact them. Oh well, perhaps I will email RDU and suggest they contact F9!!! Couldn't help!

I wonder if a letter campaign would work like Delta was trying to get people to do for service to China?

Just a thought, would the E170 be a better a/c on the RDU-DEN run or would it carry the same weight restrictions?
Aiming High and going far..
 
ATWZW170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:38 pm

Flyibaby is right....the CRJ700 is a terrible aircraft to fly in that market. It was always restricted. I was in RDU for a month helping and we could never take everyone. Mesa's flights were often late and passengers lost faith. I recall running up and down the C terminal looking for the Mesa crew...they were shopping and didn't really care that we were now 10 minutes late because of them. So, when you add the combination that the CRJ700 can't hold anything on long distances - due to headwinds, and very low reliability rate....it was canceled. I'd like to see a 170 in that market, nicer aircraft, still a weight issue, but it's all about the plane!

Success is getting what you want...happiness is liking what you get
 
ATLhomeCMH
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:41 pm

Could it possibly have something to do with AA's focus-city-like presence at RDU?

Maybe more pax are willing to connect in DFW or ORD from DEN, especially if the prices are comparable?
"The most terrifying words in the Engligh language are, 'I'm from the government and I'm here to help.'"-Ronald Reagan
 
bahadir
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Mon Nov 08, 2004 11:44 pm

UAL can make this work with the 735s they have.. But I am not sure if they are aware of the potential of the market.. Shame..
Earthbound misfit I
 
LambertMan
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Tue Nov 09, 2004 12:26 am

Mesa is a joke, and it literally did a melt down in St Louis with Frontiers first CRJ go around.

UAL can make this work with the 735s they have.. But I am not sure if they are aware of the potential of the market.. Shame..

I'm not certain that there is a whole lot of potential on a route with not even 300 passengers a day.


 
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ERJ170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Tue Nov 09, 2004 1:19 am

Could it possibly have something to do with AA's focus-city-like presence at RDU?

Nope.. though RDU is a focus city for AA, it is largely an AE station. And the AE routes at RDU are about 97% O&D. Besides, RDU has a vast array of carriers offering multiple destinations in spite of the AA focus city status.

As far as UA mainline returning, I very seriously doubt it. With their latest announcement of decreasing domesticate travel, I would suspect that UA is giving up on RDU-DEN and probably leaving it to F9 (whenever they decide to start it).

I'm not certain that there is a whole lot of potential on a route with not even 300 passengers a day.

I think that it could be done. The best factor about RDU is that First Class is usually a good seller. With a healthy First Class load and half of coach filled, the flight would be profitable. Even Air Canada is rumored to bring mainline (E170/190) to RDU when they get them because of the good First Class yield. Include cargo and I do believe that it would work, which is why it is just a goldmine fwaiting or F9 to pick up.

Perhaps UA could get US to do a RDU-DEN. They are codeshare partners and US has a healthy mainline presence at RDU. Would be cool to see US do a 734 (since they hate to bring any Airbii to RDU).
Aiming High and going far..
 
ATWZW170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Tue Nov 09, 2004 2:19 am

I wouldn't want US to start service to DEN...even though they have an ok mainline presence at RDU, if I'm not mistaken....and I might be...I thought they were reducing capacity. I know they are adding larger jets on some markets out of RDU but then giving a few routes to the RJ's.

UA mainline will never come back to RDU. It would be nice to see a A319 in there once a day but it won't happen. The ERJ 170 needs to head in that direction! You are right about the First class demand....everyone wants to upgrade.

Even though capacity is being reduced by mainline, UAX is picking up routes....as more 70 seaters come on line, I'd look for more flying to happen. Who knows, maybe DEN will come back, but I doubt it.
Success is getting what you want...happiness is liking what you get
 
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ERJ170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Tue Nov 09, 2004 3:06 am

I thought they were reducing capacity

The changes for US at RDU are as follows..

RDU-LGA.. +1 RJ to 7 daily RJ
RDU-CLT.. 8 mainline to 6 mainline + 2 RJ
RDU-PHL.. 8 mainline to 9 mainline
RDU-PIT... 3 RJ, 1 Prop to 4 Prop
RDU-DCA... 7 RJ to 3 mainline, 1 E70, 3 RJ
RDU-AVL.. No change
RDU-GSP.. no Change
RDU-CHS.. no change
RDU-ORF.. no change

RDU.. 5 gates to 4 gates.. maintenance facilty to no maintenance facilty (moving to independent on-site maintenance)

The ERJ 170 needs to head in that direction! You are right about the First class demand....everyone wants to upgrade. Who knows, maybe DEN will come back, but I doubt it.

I doubt it also. RDU has a boatload of business travelers that do last minute travel and frequent travelers. An airline not offering first class in RDU is crazy! The lost of DEN is why F9 needs to move into RDU. A double duece daily to DEN on a Critter Plane would be nice. I'm sure RDUAA will be working frantically to find someone to take over that route. I would wonder if RDU would pull a gate from UAX as they did from US since they are no longer offering those flights. With the 14 flights + 3 from AC, I don't think UA needs 3 gates.. I could see RDU pulling a gate and offering it up to someone, as they have recently been ruthless about doing it.. LOL.
Aiming High and going far..
 
Womack17
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Fri Nov 19, 2004 2:40 pm

Sorry I have been away for a while so I haven't had time to look at all the posts. I flew on the CR7 on two roundtrips and each experience was worse than the one before it. Lots of angry pax at gates who got bumped because of weight restriction issues. I usually fly FC even though the FC on these flights were an absolute joke. The only real difference was the free booze and I am not a drinker. The FC meal service is not something I can discuss as there wasn't any. A cookie or a piece of fruit. People wonder why UA is doing so badly need look no further than their latest RDU-DEN fiasco. From the very beginning it became extremely obvious that some of those 735 or 72S basking in the aircraft graveyard could be brought back into service for this one routing. You would need only two aircrafts for these flights with the following information. The aircraft to be used is the 737-500 with a cruising speed of 540 mph and a turnaround time of 45 minutes
Flight 1 UA737-500 RDU 0730 DEN 0840
Flight 2 UA737-500 DEN 0925 RDU 1425
Flight 3 UA737-500 RDU 1520 DEN 1630
Flight 4 UA737-500 DEN 1715 RDU 2225

Flight 5 UA737-500 DEN 0645 RDU 1155
Flight 6 UA737-500 RDU 1240 DEN 1350
Flight 7 UA737-500 DEN 1435 RDU 1945
Flight 8 UA737-500 RDU 2030 DEN 2140

These two aircraft would satisfy one day business fliers in both cities
From DEN arrive at 1155 and return at 2030
From RDU arrive at 0840 and return at 1715
C'mon United - Shake off the cobwebs and use two 735's for RDU-DEN service

Oh how I miss Midway Airlines. A class act right to then end.
 
JoFMO
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Fri Nov 19, 2004 3:01 pm

Why do they have weight restrictions DEN-RDU?

UX flies with the same aircraft SFO-AUS, what's a little bit longer.
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Fri Nov 19, 2004 3:18 pm

For there to be no nonstop flights on a route with 336 passengers per day (not 273 as TravisNC reported), I somehow have a feeling that things aren't going to stay that way for very long.

If I had to guess, I'd anticipate Frontier (with A-318's or A-319's) to jump on this route in a hurry, and I'd anticipate that if they don't start the route, American very well could (not likely, but possible) with MD-80's (again, don't expect it, but don't dismiss it either).
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
iowaman
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Fri Nov 19, 2004 3:37 pm

Mesa (AW) is also a joke in DSM, they fly CR2's from PHX and it is always late and sometimes weight restricted. The Arrival screen is set in DSM to "Delayed" automatically for the 10:50 pm flight since it's late often. Luckly it will be upgraded in Feb.PHX-MSP also must be severely weight restricted.

http://dsmairport.com/fids/arr-time.htm
 
travisnc
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Fri Nov 19, 2004 6:01 pm

For there to be no nonstop flights on a route with 336 passengers per day (not 273 as TravisNC reported)

Where did you find 336 passengers/day? The latest statistics I know of (Q1 2004) shows 273 p/d between RDU and DEN.

Q1 2004 - 273 p/d
Q4 2003 - 321 p/d
Q3 2003 - 347 p/d
Q2 2003 - 317 p/d
Q1 2003 - 219 p/d
Q4 2002 - 296 p/d
Q3 2002 - 332 p/d
Q2 2002 - 346 p/d

average for ~2 years - 307
 
SHUPirate1
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Fri Nov 19, 2004 6:08 pm

I'm using DOT numbers...yours are broken down by quarter, so they may be more accurate than mine...
Burma's constitutional referendum options: A. Yes, B. Go to Insein Prison!
 
Mikey711MN
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sat Nov 20, 2004 12:55 am

I, too, am a bit surprised at this based on everything that has been written so far. Not to play armchair CEO here, but an F9 announcement of new N/S RDU-DEN service marketed and scheduled with, say, same-plane continuation to LAX (another thorn in the side of RDUAA once Midway closed up shop) would seem to do pretty well.

Mariner probably knows a lot more about F9 fleet availability, so perhaps he could chime into this thread. But I imagine at this point that UA is content on the money they make with people connecting via ORD(/IAD?), but in light of nonstop service offered by a competitor, they'd sure to get involved in that scrum with more than a token offering of CRJ-700's.

My two cents...good thread, y'all!  Big thumbs up
-Mike
I plan on living forever. So far, so good...
 
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mariner
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:06 am

Mikey711MN:

I agree, I think DEN/RDU with a Frontier A318 (at least) would do well.

However, the Frontier fleet is going through a period of "housekeeing".

The six remaining 737's will be gone by mid-April, and during those same months eight of the A319's will be having the engine upgrades.

The upgrades are not a huge issue, but they do take the aircraft out of service for a while.

So Frontier appears to be juggling aircraft. For example, in January, STL gains a frequency, but ATL loses one.

This, together with the changeover to SABRE, suggests to me that there won't be any now routes/cities until spring - although something could be announced before then.

cheers

mariner
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ERJ170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:08 am

Mariner,

Would F9 do a RDU-CUN like they did at BNA?

Does F9 plan any further expansions out of LAX (not necessarily to RDU)?
Aiming High and going far..
 
flyibaby
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:10 am

I agree. F9 is crazy if they don't hop onto this one. Not only is DEN a great O/D market, but even the ability to offer same plane service to LAX or SEA would be very well recieved at RDU. Look at HP, they offer exactly that with service to LAS, PHX. To be honest, I think F9 could also schedule like two flights weekly with DOT approval to CUN from RDU as that seems to be a well served route from other destinations for F9.
 
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mariner
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sat Nov 20, 2004 1:28 am

ERJ170:

I wish I had more specific answers for you.

I don't know if Frontier will start DEN/RDU (see reply above). IF they do, then RDU/CUN becomes a possibility as long as the route authority is available.

However, CUN represents about 9% of the system and the CEO has said that it will stay at around that figure even as Frontier grows - it will always be about 9% of the system.

This means there may be some new CUN service, but otHer cities in the system may be strong contenders.

Then again Frontier could decide to beef up service to the other Mexican destinations.

LAX? It is a big question mark. A couple of months ago, I would have said that the point to point flying from LAX would be axed - but now Frontier hAs added a frequency, the missing Saturday flight LAX/PHL.

Then again, the A319's are getting the engine upgrades for (specfically) DEN/ANC and LAX/PHL, so the aircraft don't have to be weight restricted.

By summer, there will be ten x hot rod A319's. This seems ot be to be more than enough for those two routes, even allowing for aircraft scheduling flexibility.

So I'd have to guess - only a guess - that they are planning something else which requires the juiced up A319.

Which could mean either another transcon from LAX (or maybe just a frequency), or something interesting from DEN.

Best I've got.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
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ERJ170
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sun Nov 21, 2004 1:05 am

Read on yahoo http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/041119/nyf096_1.html that Frontier was dropping LAX NS destinations except to DEN. Is this a move to free up A/C for new routes or to free up A/C for the upgrades?
Aiming High and going far..
 
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mariner
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sun Nov 21, 2004 2:27 am

ERJ170:

A bit of both, I would think. I doubt they would drop a route just to put an aircraft in the hangar for a while.

As I said above, the dropping of the LAX focus city is not unexpected. The greater quesion is the future direction for Frontier, and, for a week or three, all of us can only guess.

But since LAX/PHL is axed, where are all those hot rod A319's going to fly?

It ain't dull.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
LambertMan
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sun Nov 21, 2004 4:21 am

I know where those hot rod A319's are going to fly.

STL-LGA, or in my dreams at least....

Well I guess that is it for the LAX focus city, I wonder if they will now (w/ exception of CUN) be strictly a hub and spoke airline for the forseeable future.
 
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mariner
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RE: RDU-DEN Cancelled/discontinued?

Sun Nov 21, 2004 4:28 am

LambertMan:

I don't think STL/LGA would need the hot rods. But you do get the 3rd daily DEN/STL back in January.  Smile/happy/getting dizzy

And maybe one day the DOT will make a decision about STL/CUN.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta