Flying-Tiger
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Wed Nov 10, 2004 8:50 pm

EADS CEO Rainer Hertrich has announced in the German economic paper "WirtschaftsWoche", that Airbus will recieve the "Authorization to Offer" for the A350 in December 2004.

Currently it is still evaluated if the A350 will be basically a completely beefed up A330, or if it will be a completely new design. EIS is currently scheduled for spring 2009, just months behind the B7E7.

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solnabo
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Wed Nov 10, 2004 9:12 pm


Great news!  Big thumbs up

Im dying to see the A350! Guess it´s gonna be a mix of 300/332.....

my 0,02

Micke//SE
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rj777
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Wed Nov 10, 2004 10:06 pm

I think an All-New Design is what's called for, not a derivative.
 
CRPilot
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 6:44 am

Excellent news for Airbus and for the sake of healthy competition! Can't wait to see what it will look like!!!!
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drerx7
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 6:46 am

It will have to be an all new design--otherwise you have the 764 vs. 330 roles reversed.
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A388
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:52 am

According to the article in Flight International magazine the A350 will be an updated A330 with the major changes being made in the aircraft's wingbox, improved wing design, improved engines, technologies used in the A340-600/-500 and the use of more composite material (Glare) in the aircraft itself. So physically speaking, the A350 will look indentical to any A330 with the main differences being made 'internally', so to speak.

I agree with the ones who think an all new design would give Airbus the best chances to compete against the 7E7. An updated A330 may not be enough. But like CRPilot already said, this is great for the competition. Keep up the good work, both Boeing and Airbus  Wink/being sarcastic

A388  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
 
gigneil
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:02 am

Arguably, an A330 made out of GLARE won't be an A330 anymore... but I hope they choose to do more.

A physically similar aircraft is fine.

N
 
rlwynn
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:04 am

So basically there really is no such thing as a A350. Not even on the drawing board. Pretty funny, they are already hoping for taxpayer money for something they have no idea what it will even be.
Just give us the money and we will think of something up.
I can drive faster than you
 
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keesje
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:21 am

- the A350´s will probably be larger then the 7e7´s, so filling in a slightly different requirement.
- the A330/40 hull has the right cross section, the all new 7e7 design proves it
- improvement should be made where it significantly improves performance
- retain technology where it is good; if it aint broken don´t fix it..

It will be a more conservative/ proven airframe then the 7E7. If that´s a bad idea, time will tell..

Remember first flight of the A330-200 was on August 1997, a few years after the B777. We are not talking an old aircraft here.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
Ruscoe
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:44 am

The 7e7 has a better x section than the 330. It can squeeze in a 9th row and better shaped for cargo.

A 350 will just be eating into the 330 market. Airbus are being desperately brought to this by the interest in the 7e7.

If they do go ahead with 350 then the 330 is effectively dead. Better to call it 330-500, but then, no new launch aid.

Ruscoe
 
gigneil
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:47 am

The 7e7 has a better x section than the 330. It can squeeze in a 9th row and better shaped for cargo.

How is it better shaped for cargo by having 4 extra inches? You can fit side by side LD3s, which is the most common method of shipment.

If they do go ahead with 350 then the 330 is effectively dead.

That's no problem. Sales are sales.

Better to call it 330-500, but then, no new launch aid.

Well, if its an entirely new aircraft, no point in calling it the 330-500. Airbus got launch aid for the A340-500 and -600, so I don't see why they couldn't for a 330-500.

N
 
DfwRevolution
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:11 am

The 7e7 has a better x section than the 330. It can squeeze in a 9th row and better shaped for cargo.

From a passenger density standpoint, the 7E7 does indeed benefit from the ability to fit 3+3+3. The A330 cannot do this in reasonable comfort, but the 7E7 can match 757 or 737NG comfort levels with 9-abreast seating, a very very attractive proposition for LCCs and -3 regional opperators.

As for cargo, Gigneil is right, there is no benefit from 4 extra inches. I'm wondering how Boeing is squeezing so much cargo into the 7E7-8, I assume they cleared out room along the length of the aircraft. Perhaps the center fuel tank was eliminated and the wing box was cleverly shaped? If you reduce the necessary fuel burn and build a much larger wing (increase wing fuel storage), maybe the fuselage tank can be shrunk.

A 350 will just be eating into the 330 market. Airbus are being desperately brought to this by the interest in the 7e7.

Actually... is a 100% A343 killer. The A350 targets the 7E7 more than anything.
 
Ruscoe
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:34 am

The 343 is dead anyway. If you look at the natural progression of aircraft sales through a model line, the initial sales for one reason or another are of the shorter range type. Then as sales start to dry up a longer range version breathes new life into the program. From that point most sales are for the longer range versions. So I think Airbus have been forced to jump the gun on what , it seems to me anyway is a 330 derivative and not a new aircraft at all. It is the obviuos next 330 development, forced out early by the 7e7.

One of the advantages of the 7e7 concept is that it covers aircraft sizes ranging from A300/767/310/330. The 350 is attractive to a much smaller paert of this market than the 7e7. It seems quite obvious they need a new aircraft.
In fact I think the 350 in it's present form is just bluff.

I agree the 4 inches doesn't make much difference to cargo carrying ability,I was referring to the total cargo capacity,which is significantly better than 330, but did not make that clear.

Ruscoe

 
AvObserver
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 4:56 pm

"the A350´s will probably be larger then the 7e7´s, so filling in a slightly different requirement.
- the A330/40 hull has the right cross section, the all new 7e7 design proves it
- improvement should be made where it significantly improves performance
- retain technology where it is good; if it aint broken don´t fix it..

It will be a more conservative/ proven airframe then the 7E7."

These are all perfectly valid points though it's a bit peculiar to hear the Airbus crowd air them after rebutting Boeing's similar arguments about updating the 747, dismissing it as being uncompetitive against an all-new A380. It's not quite that cut and dried in the larger volume midsize airliner market but the biggest problem I see in the publicized A350 strategy is insufficient weight reduction to be economically competitive with the half-composite 7E7. Just replacing mostly rear fuselage panels with GLARE won't reduce it nearly enough, even figuring in a lighter wing; the major A330 fuselage structures will be virtually unchanged. Bleed-air variants of 7E7 engines likely won't be quite as efficient as the 'bleedless' types, so the A350 should burn more fuel, giving it higher trip costs. Targeting larger A350-800 and -900 models at the 7E7-8 and -9, respectively, is an attempt to compensate for that with better seat/mile costs. This strategy may work with carriers who want a bigger airplane than the 7E7 but it will probably fail with those who don't. And the A350 will surely also cannibalize sales from the current A330, with its range and any fuel-saving improvements. The A350 won't be a bust, surely stealing some number of potential 7E7 sales but neither will it dominate that market; as Airbus itself has proved, newer designs and technology are generally preferred over proven types, which is why a 747 Advanced would get only a smaller precent of the big airliner market against the newer-tech A380. Don't think for a minute the A350 is Airbus's ultimate solution to this market; it's being pursued because it's a fairly cheap and fast way for them to answer the 7E7 challenge in the short-term and given its relatively low development cost, will likely prove a success though I'd not expect it to sell in the same volumes as the 7E7. Expect Airbus to field a more proper competitor in maybe a bit over a decade, after it addresses the shorter-range widebody A300/310 replacement market with the A300 fuselage derived, A30X and perhaps after also revamping the A320 family.
 
gigneil
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 5:05 pm

I personally think a 747 Advanced, if done right, could be a great competitor.

I just don't think Boeing will go the distance necessary.

N
 
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keesje
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 6:18 pm

IMO an 744adv efficient 450 seater that

- uses significantly less fuel then 747-400
- offers significant improved payload range capabilities
- has an existing competitive world wide support infra structure,
- has most 747 disadvantages fixed
- offers a good degree of cockpit commonality with 777 and 7e7
- is offered at a relative (to the A380) competitive price

could have its place between 773/346 and 380, why not?.
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
gigneil
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:04 pm

Boeing is extremely slow to respond to changing market conditions... and it was hardly certain that they were even going to launch the 7E7. In fact, the board refused to do it without some certain cost cutting initiatives that many thought would jeopardize the program beyond salability.

I still think that Airbus could design an all new type, at this point. I think they know that minor changes will not be sufficient and they will compete accordingly.

N
 
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glideslope
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:36 pm

Rlwynn wrote:
"So basically there really is no such thing as a A350. Not even on the drawing board. Pretty funny, they are already hoping for taxpayer money for something they have no idea what it will even be.
Just give us the money and we will think of something up."


Ah, it is sooo refreshing to see an EU member post who lives in Reality. Keep up the good work!!!  Smile
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
leelaw
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:52 pm

IMO, Airbus is making a mistake, the same mistake that Boeing made with the 764 and 753. Although A332 sales have been good, and largely contributed to killing additional 767 sales, it has hardly been a roaring sales success. In fact, Boeing has sold more 767s (exclusive of the 764) since the A332 went forward. I don't think current A332 operators will necessarily be queuing up for an A350 when there will be zero engine commonality between the types. Additionally, only EK operates or will operate more than 20 A332s (based on current order backlog), so there isn't the depth of commitment among operators to necessarily make upgrading to the A350 a logical move. If the 764 was a flop given depth and breadth of 767 operators, why would an A350 fare any better?
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Aither
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Thu Nov 11, 2004 10:44 pm

The Airbus A350, once the definition is frozen, can be quite challenging, for the reasons seen above plus the Airbus commonality concept. It is important for airlines. Training is costly and the crew flexibility for aircraft type is improved.

For a minimal development cost the A350 can be quite challenging. But perhaps it should have been marketed as an A330 enhanced, i don't know.
Never trust the obvious
 
knoxibus
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 2:08 am

So basically there really is no such thing as a A350. Not even on the drawing board. Pretty funny, they are already hoping for taxpayer money for something they have no idea what it will even be.
Just give us the money and we will think of something up.


So I guess all the files I have seen on my desk since June in terms of cabin definition and configuration with a big "A350" on it must have been a dream,

Damn, I must wake up!!!
No matter what anybody tells you, words and ideas can change the world.
 
planemaker
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 2:12 am

Airbus is making a mistake, the same mistake that Boeing made with the 764

The 764 was a "mistake" because it was handicapped by the fuselage cross section. That is not a problem with the A330/350.


AvObserver,

Good post - dispassionate and rational. I agree with your prognosis - "The A350 won't be a bust, surely stealing some number of potential 7E7 sales but neither will it dominate that market", if the A350 is indeed launched. However, I would like to suggest the possibility that the A350 could conceivably outsell the 7E7 due to events largely beyond Boeing's control - even before, as you said, "Airbus to field a more proper competitor in maybe a bit over a decade."
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
dynkrisolo
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 2:38 am


The 764 was a "mistake" because it was handicapped by the fuselage cross section. That is not a problem with the A330/350.


Then tell me why the 762er/763er outsold A310/300-600.

The 764 can't effectively compete against the 332 because the 764er has less payload and shorter range. The 764 is also slower. The inability to hold LD-3s side by side is a disadvantage, but it's hardly the most important one. Many non-network airlines that don't heavily rely on cargo revenue have ordered the 332 for better payload/range capability. If the 764er could carry 253pax/6,500nm and 332 could carry 247pax/5,600nm, then the outcome would likely be similar to the 762er/763er v 310/300-600 competition.
 
gigneil
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 4:44 am

Dynkrisolo is correct. While the 764's constrained cross section would still have mildly limited its salability, greater payload range availablility would have made the plane attractive to more current 763 customers.

Really, this whole debate is rampant speculation at this point. I don't think Airbus even knows exactly what the final outcome will be. There's still a high likelihood they could launch an all new airframe.

N
 
rlwynn
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:13 am

"So I guess all the files I have seen on my desk since June in terms of cabin definition and configuration with a big "A350" on it must have been a dream,

Damn, I must wake up"


I guess you better wake then because cabin definition and configuration doesnt fly. It is what is around it that does, which in this case Airbus has not even decided to launch an all new plane or an 330 derivative.
I can drive faster than you
 
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keesje
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:44 am

"So I guess all the files I have seen on my desk since June in terms of cabin definition and configuration with a big "A350" on it must have been a dream,

Damn, I must wake up"

I guess you better wake then because cabin definition and configuration doesnt fly. It is what is around it that does, which in this case Airbus has not even decided to launch an all new plane or an 330 derivative.


Unless they keep the A330 body (which they said they would btw..) and are looking for major cabin reconfigurations (crewrest areas for the longer hauls etc..)

Pretty odd to tell Knoxibus by internet he is not seeing what he is seeing..

Airbus makes studies, presents them to customers so they get feed back and can adjust, that´s what is happening
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
rlwynn
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:56 am


EADS Chief Backs Away From A350 Design, Subsidy Plans

Wednesday October 20, 1:55 PM EDT


WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--A top executive at European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. (5730.FR) on Wednesday backed away from details of a possible new Airbus plane.

Last week, Airbus Chief Executive Noel Forgeard said his company was planning to develop the A350 to compete with Boeing Co.'s (BA) brand-new 7E7. He described development costs of up to EUR3 billion, a new request for up to EUR1 billion in government launch aid, and a design based on the Airbus A330.

But on Wednesday, EADS co-Chief Executive Philippe Camus told reporters that the company has not yet decided whether or how to proceed.

"We have not yet decided anything. First we are looking to business opportunities," Camus said.

Only one possible design for the A350 has been floated publicly: a modified A330-200 with 1,000 nautical miles of extra range, using engines made by either Rolls-Royce Group PLC (RR.LN) or General Electric Co. (GE). Those companies also are developing high-performance engines for the 7E7.



But Camus on Wednesday insisted that there isn't a fixed plan for the new plane.

"We have made no decision about the form of the A350," Camus said. Airbus is owned 80% by European Aeronautic Defence & Space Co. and 20% by BAE Systems PLC (BA.LN).

Airbus spokesman Clay McConnell in Washington said Forgeard was speaking "from among the possibilities" for a new aircraft. McConnell said the firm still is talking to customers about how to proceed.

"There has been no announcement about an airplane being launched. If that indeed happens, then we would have the details at that time," McConnell said.

Talk of a new Airbus plane started around the same time that a simmering dispute escalated into a vocal trade war. On Oct. 6, the U.S. ended a 1992 agreement on aircraft subsidies and filed a World Trade Organization complaint, protesting aid to Airbus.

The European Union retaliated immediately with its own complaint protesting aid to Boeing. Separate consultations will begin soon, and both sides have spoken out to defend their systems and point out unfair aspects of the competition.

European officials have said the WTO case was timed to coincide with the U.S. elections. But U.S. trade officials have said the real driver was the prospect that Airbus would use subsidies to develop a new midrange plane, even as it prepares to roll out its A380 superjumbo jet.

Analysts say Airbus may need to do more than touch up an existing aircraft if it hopes to steal market share from the 7E7. The new Boeing plane features state-of-the-art materials and other new technologies, said aircraft analyst Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group, a Washington-area consulting firm.

"What it comes down to is whether or not there's going to be an all-new A350 or merely a new version of the A330," Aboulafia said. "It's not fears of a derivative that are driving the Boeing case. It's the prospect of a long-term, all-new plane."

-By Rebecca Christie, Dow Jones Newswires; 202-862-9243; rebecca.christie@ dowjones.com



I can drive faster than you
 
planemaker
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:15 am

"Then tell me why the 762er/763er outsold A310/300-600."

The answer is very obvious. Without going into any detail, in 1978 when the A310 program was finally launched, Boeing, McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed were first, second and third in the airliner market. Airbus, which was then a fractious consortium of competing European aerospace companies, had a miniscule market share (zero in the all important American market) and had not even managed to sell a single aircraft for the 16 months period prior to May 1977.

Considering the above described inauspicious start, it is remarkable that the A310/300 even reached total sales of 849 (compared to 762/763 sales total of 908). And A310/300 sales including A332 sales total 1,114 (compared to 762/763/764 sales total of 946).
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
dynkrisolo
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 8:51 am

Planemaker, you're avoiding the real question. I'm not talking about how successful each program is. I'm talking about your statement:


The 764 was a "mistake" because it was handicapped by the fuselage cross section. That is not a problem with the A330/350.


The 763er and the 300-600/-600R came out within a few years of each other. If your statement is true, then how could the 763er have outsold the 300-600/-600R by more than 50%?
 
widebodyphotog
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 10:01 am

So if the latest speculation on A350 is correct Airbus will build a twin engine successor to the A343 and challenge the 772ER market with a twin. Does this not go against their assertions about long range four engine vs twin engine safety? And if they compete with 7E7 it will have to be a twin with a range of 8,300nm or longer to match 7E7-9. Interesting. Makes me wonder if the reality of the greater economy of twins is finally setting in over there in Toulouse.


-widebodyphotog
If you know what's really going on then you'll know what to do
 
trex8
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 12:44 pm

> Makes me wonder if the reality of the greater economy of twins is finally setting in over there in Toulouse.


the manufacturer can think whatever it wants, if the market however wants X, then they will need to provide X to the customer!
 
CRPilot
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:07 pm

How about waiting until the design and final specs are announced, instead of speculating on what it is or isn't?
Flying is a privilege!
 
planemaker
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:26 pm

"The 763er and the 300-600/-600R came out within a few years of each other. If your statement is true, then how could the 763er have outsold the 300-600/-600R by more than 50%?"

As with your earlier 762er/A310 comparison, without putting comparisons into a historical and correct context they are absolutely useless. Second, the aircraft are not even close to being in the same range class - the 763ER has approx. 2500 NM more range than the A300-600, and approx. 2000 NM more range than the A300-600R.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Thrust
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:33 pm

Why am I sensing that Airbus will try to do the same thing with the A350 as Douglas did with the DC-8? Look at the design of the 7E7 and attack its weak points?
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
gigneil
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:37 pm

Second, the aircraft are not even close to being in the same range class - the 763ER has approx. 2500 NM more range than the A300-600, and approx. 2000 NM more range than the A300-600R.

That's exactly the problem.

N
 
planemaker
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Fri Nov 12, 2004 2:45 pm

So why even bother to compare the two aircraft? The aircraft class is incorrect and the historical context is incorrect.
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
Alessandro
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 5:00 pm

Guess that engine designers has already been told to work on engines for this bird or will they use the same engines as B7E7?
From New Yorqatar to Califarbia...
 
AvObserver
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:58 pm

"However, I would like to suggest the possibility that the A350 could conceivably outsell the 7E7 due to events largely beyond Boeing's control."

Planemaker, thanks for your comments. Yes, I try to be dispassionate in here because we've more than enough already, which isn't always a good thing. I'm also trying to be fair in assessing the derivative A350's market potential vs. the all-new 7E7. Although you didn't elaborate on the 'events' you mention, you may be partly referring to issues covered by airline/airliner market researcher Ron 'R.E.G.' Davies in his editorial, "Air Transport In the 21st Century: A Bumpy Ride For Boeing", on page 70 of the current Aviation Week. Mr. Davies' main point is that Airbus production will continue to grow at Boeing's expense due to a number of significant factors. He first states that Airbus's decision to increase the size of its front-line airliner with the A380 was correct due to the ever-increasing growth in air travel. He dismisses Boeing's theory of route fragmentation creating demand for smaller airliners to fly direct service between provincial cities, their "point-to-point" scenario. He says their viewpoint is wrong because nearly all fliers from small cities go to large ones or vice-versa. While fragmentation at one end of a route is good, the airport congestion and air traffic control problems at hub airports it would entail, isn't. He also thinks the 7E7 will have a hard time racking up sales, given the large number of good used airplanes available at much cheaper prices in that size class and also mentions that Airbus's product range matches Boeing's in this, as well as in other classes. He goes on to maintain that Boeing's home turf, the U.S., is barren for new sales with American carriers in no position for fleet renewals, while healthier European airlines will prefer Airbus. He also states Persian Gulf area airlines in Arab states also strongly buy Airbus, though he doesn't try to attach political significance to it and also feels that Boeing and Airbus will evenly split the fast growing Asian market. He concludes by saying Boeing has good prospects in only about one-sixth to one-fifth of the commercial airline world. I didn't see this was posted anywhere else in this forum but it somewhat echos an opinion by KEESJE, in a recent thread of his. I don't necessarily disagree with Davies' editorial but I take issue with a couple points. First, I doubt his take that 'nearly all' passengers from small cities go to larger ones or the reverse; I think the number going direct between smaller cities is quite significant; it was called a trend in the U.S. awhile back in another AW&ST editorial on the disparate Airbus/Boeing market forecasts. Secondly, the glut of used midsize airplanes he sees undermining 7E7 sales would do the same to an A350 or an A330 in that segment. So, I find his take on some of this peculiarly selective, though undeniably, his qualifications to assess this are magnitudes greater than mine. Planemaker, I'd appreciate it if you elaborated on your point, perhaps you've something else in mind Mr. Davies hasn't considered.
 
StickShaker
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A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 8:33 pm

..."A 350 will just be eating into the 330 market. Airbus are being desperately brought to this by the interest in the 7e7"....

Wouldn't go quite so far as calling it desperate.
Company A dominates a particular market segment. Company B launches a new product to win back lost market share in that segment. Company A reacts quickly to defend market share by proposing its own new product to woo customers from company B or at least delay their purchase thus delaying early sales to company B.
All sounds like established business practice - nothing desperate. (Sorry about the nomenclature).

The reality is that healthy competition is driving the definition of better products for airlines and their passengers.
Without the A332, Boeing would have happily continued selling 767's for at least another decade with only incremental improvements and nothing like the technology being offered on the 7e7. Were it not for the 7e7 launch, Airbus would not see the need to develop the A350.
Nothing evil about this process - just the result of healthy competition.

Cheers,
StickShaker
 
dynkrisolo
Posts: 1825
Joined: Mon Feb 12, 2001 12:12 am

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:12 pm


Second, the aircraft are not even close to being in the same range class - the 763ER has approx. 2500 NM more range than the A300-600, and approx. 2000 NM more range than the A300-600R. ...

So why even bother to compare the two aircraft


The range difference between the 764er and the heaviest 332 is 1,150nm. One can comfortably do Europe to Asia, one can't. They are not in the same range class. Yet, you have no problem comparing the two. With your latest statement, I think we agree the biggest "mistake" for the 764er is the range not the fuselage.  Wink/being sarcastic
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 10:56 pm

Yet, you have no problem comparing the two.

I did not compare the 764 and the A332. BTW, the A332 was developed as a competitor to the 736ER.  Smile
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
SwissA330
Posts: 550
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2002 8:23 am

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:39 pm

Just a short comment regarding "a350 is just a a330 upgrade"...

Remeber, if we say an upadated B747 is inferior to an new a380 we're talking about a time difference of around 30 years... The A330 is 'almost' new itself. So even if the A350 would 'just' be an 'a330enhanced' it would not be an old design whilst a b747enhanced (or even a 737NG (Not sure, if they actually are a new design, and just called 737 for marketing urposes, if yes, sorry...)) is exactly this...

And why would an A350 made out of new materials etc not be a new design, just because it looks like an a330?


i think it great news.... Not only can we look forward to 2 new exciting planes in the next years (380/7e7) but 3!!!

BTW, when will Boeing finally decide on the 'number' for the 7e7?

Greetz, Patrick
swissair/+/ we care
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 2:20 am

Oh come on now. Its like saying the A320 wasn't developed as a 737 or MD80 competitor because they're not in the same range class.

The A300 and 767 were designed as direct competitors for the same market. Boeing continued to add capability, and Airbus did not. Thence, the Boeing product handily outsold the Airbus competitor.

Because one product continued to develop and one didn't isn't a valid reason to not compare them.

N
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 2:20 am

”I'd appreciate it if you elaborated on your point, perhaps you've something else in mind Mr. Davies hasn't.”

AvObserver, when I made my post that you refer to, I had not yet read the Davies article in AWST. However, you are right about how it echoes KEESJE’s post (did he have an advance copy??  Big grin ).

Obviously, all my points are dependent upon the A350 actually being launched.

Several of Davies’ points are similar to ones that I was thinking of when I made my post, and contribute to the possibility of my point happening. However, there is one point (“event”) that is rarely mentioned anywhere – technological risk. Boeing is developing and integrating many new technologies - not evolutionary but truly revolutionary, concurrently on a scale that has never been attempted before on a civil airliner. I am in no way talking about technological failures but difficulties (“events”) that could possibly delay the program that will obviously impact sales.

To provide just one possible “risk” analogy look no further than Raytheon. They have the most experience with pressurized composite fuselages and yet their Premier and Horizon were both several years late and very over budget. And both these aircraft are not only minnows compared to the 7E7, but only have composite fuselages (the wings are conventional aluminum). When you look at all the new 7E7 technologies, the risk challenge is pretty daunting.

Assumming that all the development and manufacturing goes smoothly, another "risk" to consider is the possiblity of delays during flight testing. And finally, possible certification delays due to the FAA having to deal with the approval of all the new technologies concurrently.

Another possible point (“event” beyond Boeing’s control) that is not directly addressed by Davies is global airline consolidation through airline failures and/or global alliances. While he does mention in his point: ”Competition (b),” the existing “surplus of perfectly good aircraft waiting to be picked up”, my point differs in that consolidation through airline failures and increasing alliances may not only adds to the “surplus of perfectly good aircraft" but could result in passenger "concentration" and, hence, possibly higher demand for aircraft larger than the 7E7.

I agree with your point, ” the glut of used midsize airplanes he sees undermining 7E7 sales would do the same to an A350 or an A330 in that segment.” However, your point may contribute to the possibility of my point. While, on the one hand, the incremental addition of an A350 would integrate very easily into existing Airbus fleets, the 7E7, on the other hand, will have virtually no tangible commonality with any other Boeing.

BTW, re. your point, ”I doubt his take that 'nearly all' passengers from small cities go to larger ones or the reverse;“ I believe that Davies may have answered it (at least partially) in his point: “Demand.”
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 2:37 am

"The A300 and 767 were designed as direct competitors for the same market."

Please take look at the market (airlines and manufacturers), and the respective aircraft histories and development timelines.

(Direct competitors... I guess that is why American Airlines was launch customer of the A300-600R AND the 763ER and took delivery of both in 1988!)  Laugh out loud

[Edited 2004-11-12 18:51:48]
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 3:10 am

There's obviously no explaining things to you. Did you miss my explanation about how Airbus stopped developing capability into the A300 and Boeing passed them?

If Airbus had developed the A300-600R further (added range) then Airbus might have won that whole order.

N
 
planemaker
Posts: 5411
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2003 12:53 pm

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 4:55 am

If Airbus had developed the A300-600R further (added range) then Airbus might have won that whole order.

..."might"... what completely baseless speculation! It is as groundless as saying that "the A300 and 767 were designed as direct competitors for the same market". American already had 762s, 762ERs and 767ERs in their fleet plus orders for a 100+ 757s when the first A300 arrived!  Laugh out loud
Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2435
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 4:07 pm

"Remeber, if we say an upadated B747 is inferior to an new a380 we're talking about a time difference of around 30 years... The A330 is 'almost' new itself. So even if the A350 would 'just' be an 'a330enhanced' it would not be an old design whilst a b747enhanced (or even a 737NG (Not sure, if they actually are a new design, and just called 737 for marketing urposes, if yes, sorry...)) is exactly this...

And why would an A350 made out of new materials etc not be a new design, just because it looks like an a330?"

Swissa330, I don't think 'how new' is the main point although I must point out that first, the current 747-400 is itself, quite a bit advanced over the original -100, even if based on the same airframe so it's not exactly a 30+ year old design. The other thing is that the 'almost' new A330 was designed in the 1980's, nearly 20 years ago, before being committed to production in 1987 and is itself, largely a revamp of the earlier A300. Like the 747, however, it has been given enhancements since entry into service; incremental updates.
The likely A350 program, as detailed thusfar in Flight International, anyway, would be a significant upgrade of the A330-200 and -300 series but certainly not a new design, with only $3-3.5 billion (in USD) to be spent on it. The biggest improvement is the use of bleed-air versions of 7E7 engines already in development; the exact 'bleedless' versions for the 7E7 itself can't be used on the A350 because it will retain the same less electric systems (compared to the 7E7) used on the A330. This would also be true of Boeing's proposed 747 Advanced. The new materials would be mostly in a new, lighter, partly composite wing and replacing alloy fuselage panels, mostly toward the rear of the plane, with GLARE and with more composites used in the tail section. The major internal structure of the fuselage, however, won't be altered; that would be too expensive for the likely stated budget. So, the two A350 models will still be appreciably heavier than their 50% composite 7E7 counterparts, despite the changes from the A330. Nothing changes the fact that the A350 will still be a principally metallic design vying with a lighter, half-composite one and on that basis, not fully competitive. You can't expect that if Airbus will only spend about a third of what Boeing is spending on the 7E7. You get a much better A330 but you don't get a truly new airplane. A similar argument holds for Boeing trying to field a 747 Advanced, however much upgraded, against the 'clean-sheet' design A380, although in that case, there's more of a difference in size between the two.
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 4:56 pm

..."Boeing is developing and integrating many new technologies - not evolutionary but truly revolutionary, concurrently on a scale that has never been attempted before on a civil airliner. I am in no way talking about technological failures but difficulties (“events”) that could possibly delay the program that will obviously impact sales"...

This is a very pertinent point that many who sing the praises of the 7e7's performance advantages fail to grasp. All of this wonderful new technology in a single leap comes at a price - that price is risk. It is not a fait accompli that all the new technologies will perform exactly as expected or that they can be manufactured within predicted time frames and budgets.

Not only are so many new technologies involved but Boeing is outsourcing the manufacture of major components for the first time. Boeing will assembling the 7e7 rather than manufacturing the aircraft. This will have Boeing relying on foreign suppliers to manufacture (and deliver) components such as fuselages using radically new techniques and materials. This leaves Boeing exposed to production problems and issues beyond their immediate control.
Anyone with any experience in project management will recognise the plethora of possibilities for something to go seriously wrong.

As Planemaker points out, certification is another issue. Is it realistic to expect the FAA / JAA to certify such a radically new aircraft in the same timeframe as a conventional aircraft ?
Consider not only the Ratheon Premier/Horizon but the Beech Starship as an example of development problems with composites.

For the 7e7 to achieve its EIS in 2008 with all the promised technologies and performance an unprecedented number of new production techniques and materials must perform exactly as expected. Only a handful need to cause trouble to produce significant delays or cost over-runs.

Cheers,
StickShaker
 
AvObserver
Posts: 2435
Joined: Sat Apr 06, 2002 7:40 am

A350: Authorization To Offer To Be Approved In 2004

Sat Nov 13, 2004 5:29 pm

Thanks, Planemaker, for espousing on your viewpoint. In my response, I'll just offer a couple of observations. First, though there's undoubtedly some risk in pursuing large scale composite structures, Boeing's vast experience with it in military aircraft and other areas greatly mitigates that risk. They would not have earmarked composites on that scale for use in the 7E7, if they didn't have great confidence in their ability to do it. Surely, Airbus is also taking some risk with the 25% composite A380, though they're being more conservative, partly because it's a much larger structure, partly because they don't as yet have the body of experience Boeing does with composites. Airbus, not too long ago, accused Boeing of being risk-averse in not pursuing new technogies as aggressively as they but lately, they're trying to turn that argument around in marketing the A350; that a largely 'proven' design is a better bet than one that breaks new ground in a number of areas. Yes, it's Marketing, with a capital M but frankly, the entire rationale for 7E7 is largely based on making it significantly lighter than its forebears and their competition, not just on the new, more fuel-efficient engines. For Airbus to compete on even terms in this segment, they'll ultimately need to develop a similarly lighter A330 successor; something they realize, even if they don't publicly say so, meaning either a vastly expanded composites quotient OR an equally light alternative, perhaps 'lithium-aluminum', now being pursued for further A380 weight reduction. While the A350 will be a significant improvement in efficiency over the A330, it won't go far enough in weight reduction to match the 7E7, no matter what numbers Airbus will throw into their marketing campaign. I must also point out that while the A350 might also sell based on large commonality with existing fleets, the 7E7 will sell primarily because it delivers a big gain in fuel efficiency over current like-sized airliners and should have at least partial cockpit commonality with the 777. With fuel costs so important to airlines' balance sheets these days, that can't be ignored, even with a glut of cheaper used airplanes available. I really don't at all see that such a glut of used airliners would affect Airbus any less than Boeing; that really makes no sense. And the route fragmentation that facilitates Boeing's "point to point" philosophy occurred on Atlantic routes and within the U.S. and is occurring on Pacific routes per sources like AW&ST, which printed Mr. Davies' editorial that contradicts their earlier reports. Curious. I'm not saying that Mr. Davies, KEESJE, or yourself are necessarily wrong in maintaining that Airbus might prevail over Boeing in these areas but I feel, to some extent, there are certain flaws in some of your arguments, that's all.

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