bhill
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More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 5:43 am

Carpe Pices
 
keesje
Posts: 8598
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 6:11 am

Not so long ago I suggested a little stretch might improve market appeal

http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1787010

Luckely lots of members to quickly correct me ..
"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:01 am

Not so long ago I suggested a little stretch might improve market appeal

Actually, Boeing's inital plans included a -8 variants slightly larger than what we currently see. ASAIK, the -9 was planned for 270, then shrunk to 255, but they might have gone back to the original figure.

I suspect that QR and EK are both pushing for the -9 to be as large as possible. 260 seats would be ideal IMO.
 
Aither
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:12 am

A stretch version of the 7E7 could mean the end of the 777 ?
Never trust the obvious
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:31 am

A stretch version of the 7E7 could mean the end of the 777 ?

"The end" is a gross exaggeration.... they will likely complement each other. No doubt some 772ER orders will go to the 7E7-9, but the -9 (even seating 260-270) would be unable to replace the 772ER entirely. Don't forget the 773ER and de-tanked 772LR.... no 7E7 could replace these aircraft.

Remember that carriers like AA, BA, and especially AF use the 772ER/773ER on premium routes but 744 on high capacity (but not necessarily yield) routes. These aircraft fly with as many first/biz seats as possible, so floor area is a necessity.
 
HlywdCatft
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:36 am

I think this was discussed too about the 777.

Isn't the 7E7-9 more like the size of a 767-400? while the 8 was a 767-300 size? It wouldn't directly compete with the A333 or 772.

I think at this point, if Boeing wants to get 60 orders for the 7E7, they better start making the 9 version. I have a feeling the 9 will outsell the 8 anyway, at least until the American legacy carriers get enough money to buy some 8s.
 
cwapilot
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:47 am

When it comes to "possible" and "potential" and "rumored" orders and MOUs, Boeing is the undisputed king.
Southside Irish...our two teams are the White Sox and whoever plays the Cubs!
 
radelow
Posts: 415
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:15 am

I am taken aback by Boeing's arrogance on delivering the larger plane. They need to listen to what their customers WANT not what they want. I am a big Boeing supporter but arrogance never goes well with people. Especially when you say you'll hit 200 orders by years end and here we are with 1 1/2 months left and only ~50 orders + 50 maybes.

Mark
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:00 am

I am taken aback by Boeing's arrogance on delivering the larger plane. They need to listen to what their customers WANT not what they want

Nearly *all* the inital interest for the 7E7 was for the -3 and -8 variant. Looking at the orders that have been placed, Boeing has 30 7E7-3s and 22 7E7-8s totally 100% firm and another ~20+ at various stages of aquisition. Boeing does not (yet) have any -9 orders so they will wait to introduce this variant... 60 orders could very well change this, but Boeing has finite resources and must do what the majority of customers want.

I am a big Boeing supporter but arrogance never goes well with people.

Oh get a life the aircraft hasn't been fully defined and EOS is a minimum of 4 years away.... the time table is still very much flexible. Boeing will introduce the aircraft in the order that customers demand. And if you havn't noticed, rumors are Boeing might move -9 EOS up 18 months if this order is for real.

Especially when you say you'll hit 200 orders by years end and here we are with 1 1/2 months left and only ~50 orders + 50 maybes.

Slow down turbo... let's analyize Boeing's claim that they could have 200 orders. From the firm orders placed, and the publically announced interest in the 7E7, we can assume the following-

ANA 30 7E7-3 (firm)
ANA 20 7E7-8 (frim)
Air NZ 2 7E7-8 (firm)
First choice 8 7E7-8 (pending)
Blue Panorama 2 7E7-8 (pending)
Primaris 20 7E7-8 (pending)
Vietnam Airlines 4 7E7-8 (pending)

China Group 70 7E7-8 (looking)*
Qatar Airways 60 7E7-9 (looking)
Singapore 30 7E7-3 (looked-- but deferred)*

82 7E7 orders, and with the possibility of 3 major orders in Summer-04, Boeing wasn't being that irrational in claiming they could have 200 orders by years end.

--

***SQ was looking to order 30 regional widebodies, which would have been a slam-dunk had SQ not deferred their decision. Southeast Asia is being swarmed by LCC narrowbodies and they had to wait and see. China is waiting for god knows what.... but if they place an order, it will likely be huge.
 
Thrust
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:59 am

60 orders for the 7E7 will be use---still any anticipation for when the U.S. carriers will decide to pitch in?
Fly one thing; Fly it well
 
DC10GUY
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:00 am

SAD, SAD, SAD, Boeing don't have much going do they. Airbus has won.
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:07 am

SAD, SAD, SAD, Boeing don't have much going do they. Airbus has won.

Huh????

Boeing has one of the most impressive widebody portfolio's in the world. The 773ER has beaten all expectations, the 772LR is a few months from roll-out, and the 7E7 is, by all indications, going very smoothly. Airbus is poised to get royally screwed from the 200-400 seat market...

What is Boeing doing wrong? Missing out on those super-profitable (sarcasim) NB orders? The A320 might be flooding the market, but 737NG resale values are way way higher than their A32X counter-parts....
 
DC10GUY
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:23 am

Nice try DFW dude... I like Boeing planes too. But Airbus is building what airlines want to buy at a price airlines want to pay. Boeing isn't ...
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
Arcano
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:24 am

LAN is the 10th largest consumer of the 767.

I think that when they'll have to replace them, they would see the 7E7 as an alternative, although LAN/Airbus alliance are getting stronger and the 330/350 (if) will also be alternatives.

Regards )( Arcano
in order: 721,146,732,763,722,343,733,320,772,319,752,321,88,83,744,332,100,738, 333, 318, 77W, 78, 773, 380, 73G, 788, 789, 346
 
PHXinterrupted
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:33 am

"Not so long ago I suggested a little stretch might improve market appeal"

Keesje, you think your statement is a revelation? Nearly every aircraft family is eventually stretched. Boeing certainly knows this and is prepared to offer a stretch version with an adequate order(s).
Keepin' it real.
 
N1120A
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:44 am

>Remember that carriers like AA, BA, and especially AF use the 772ER/773ER on premium routes but 744 on high capacity (but not necessarily yield) routes. These aircraft fly with as many first/biz seats as possible, so floor area is a necessity<

Um, AA does not fly the 744 or the 773, BA does not fly the 773 and their 744s go to major yield routes (2X a day to LAX, YYZ, JNB, etc.)
You are, however, dead on with AF. Also, considering their policy that seems to favor Boeing wideboddies and Airbus narrowboddies (yes, I know they have some A340s/A340s but they have leaned Boeing), and the fact that they could do a team order with KL and NW, the 7E7 could be in AF's future as well.
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
bigb
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:05 pm

N1120a

read carefully, he stated "Remember that carriers like AA, BA, and especially AF use the 772ER/773ER"
ETSN Baber, USN
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:12 pm

Nice try DFW dude... I like Boeing planes too.

Great... allow me to recommend a plastic model kit  Insane

http://www.boeingstore.com/catalog/index.cfm?fuseaction=category&id=76


But Airbus is building what airlines want to buy at a price airlines want to pay. Boeing isn't ...

Airbus has never once met their target OEW for the A340-200, A340-300, A340-500, or A340-600. Airbus does not have a modern widebody capable of flying regional sectors. Airbus does not have a direct replacement for the 767-300ER.

Is Airbus serving the needs of the airlines who want an A310 replacement, or a 767 replacement, or want a product that will meet its performance goals the first time? No, smart one. Look at the major orders coming down the pipe....

QF wants a 747 replacement, and before the day is over a 773ER is on the tarmac in SYD. It's there for a "Connexion" demonstration but why would AF be asked to delay one of their 773ERs when other Connexion equipped aircraft are available for demo purposes? There were major ulterior motives for sending a 773ER to SYD, and you can bet Boeing will be all over that order.

Oh, and what can Airbus do if Boeing launches the 777-200LRF? The A345 is 56,000 lbs heavier than a 772LR, so if your suggesting that it would make a suitable freighter platform you must be joking. Then there are the 18-30 773ERs SQ is ordering before year's end. And EK could easily order a sizable number in the same timetable.

What Boeing is losing out on is low-yield narrow body orders. Oh darn, Boeing missed a chance to scrap a 1% profit on precious delivery slots. By not flooding the market, Boeing has kept the resale value of their aircraft very high, which customers and lessors appreciate. And why is Airbus being so aggresive for narrow body orders? To keep cash flow positive as Boeing takes major high-yielding widebody order away from them.

Boeing doesn't love losing ordes, but given selling 30 777-300ERs to SQ or 60 737-800s to Air Berlin, you go with the 777s.
 
United Airline
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:18 pm

QF B 747 replacement will not happen anytime soon. They still upgrading them. And they are very new.
 
greaser
Posts: 1040
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:26 pm

Whoa, DFW, you summed up my last 6 months of explaining to the Leahy slaves!  Smile

DC10guy, you must understand that should Airbus launch the A350, all they are doing is damage control. Yes, they can maintain their longtimers like VS, but its a 167-1 chance they'll get a new customer from a rushed product deririved from the A330.
Now, as said in the other posts, should airbus launch the A350, i always said why not Boeing launch the 747X???/737ERs Boeing has the resources and capital, all it needs to do is to hire some new staff (I know it's not that simple). This could leave airbus in a fix and they will not be able to launch a 3rd program, unless they want to become a Boeing/MDD/Airbus....hehehe
Now you're really flying
 
DC10GUY
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:38 pm

Sounds like some great excuses DFW dude. I realize that 200 airplane orders in the last week for Airbus is nothing compared to Qatar airlines thinking about buying the non existing "7E7" but hey,,, I'm sure Boeing can con some one into buying the 7E7.... But it won't be any airline in the US anytime soon. Boeing needs to learn how to compete.
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 12:45 pm

QF B 747 replacement will not happen anytime soon. They still upgrading them. And they are very new.

According to QF, they are closely studying the 773ER/A346 to replace portions of the 747 fleet-

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,11186671%255E2702,00.html

All but a handful of QF's current 744s were delivered before 1992, and the 743s are a rather tiny subfleet of 1984-1987 builds. Excluding the small subfleet of 744ERs, QF's are rather mature. High gas prices and the potential for the 773ER to be more profitable on many sectors could accelerate their retirement.

The 773ER can do nearly everything QF asks their 747s to do, burns less fuel, carries more cargo, requires lower landing fees, less maintenance, and has fewer seats to fill. Yeah QF can fill a 744, but if 30 people are flying on FF-Miles, axing the seats is not a loss in profit. Moving to the 777 might be a very smart move for QF
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:03 pm

Boeing needs to learn how to compete.

And Airbus needs to learn yield manegment. BCA has posted a consistent profit for the past four years, Airbus posted two losses.

Airbus super-agressive dealing can be atributed to several factors-
1. They want to pressure Boeing to replace the 737NG first, hence allowing Airbus to be 2nd to the 120-180 seat replacement market and grabbing a technical edge. Highly unlikey that this is the case as Boeing won't commit to a 737NG replacement for many many years anyway.

2. Try to take out one of Boeing's cash-crops in a time when they have invested heavily in R/D. Possible.... but Boeing's risk-sharing partners have largely negated and financial risk to Boeing.

3. Intentionally flood market with over-capacity via LCC. LCCs harm the customers that typically would be ordering the 7E7 right now. Airbus can't stop American Airlines from ordering the 7E7, but they can make sure B6 has enough aircraft to keep them from making a profit. Also, look at SQ. They stated they had to defer a decision on a regional widebody (namely 7E7-3) because of LCC growth. The S.E. Asian LCC market has been fueled almost entirely by A320 sales. Hmmmm......

4. Maintain a cash flow as Boeing takes high-yielding orders away. Boeing is now capatilizing like hell off the 777, and Airbus is having a difficult time competing. See above. This could be plausable IMO...

---

All in all, I see Airbus agressiveness as a short-term analomoly to meet near-term goals. It is not a sign of the next 10 years, or even 2. Boeing 737NG sales were screwing the A320 by an equal margin in 1999-2002... things change... but you need a reality check for sure.
 
HlywdCatft
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:11 pm

Hell I could see Air France ordering some 7E7s...

What widebody haven't they flown at one time or another?
 
DC10GUY
Posts: 2590
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:38 pm

DFW dude, Your excuses for Boeing sound desperate. Airbus doesn't make money on their A320's but the 737's are Boeings cash cow ??? Boeing makes great airplanes just like Airbus does. The problem is Boeing has never had to compete aggressively ... That's a lesson they need to learn.
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
trex8
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:39 pm

IIRC AF has never had DC10/MD11 or L1011s
 
BEG2IAH
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 1:57 pm

What about


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Click here for bigger photo!

Photo © Mark Durbin



BEG2IAH
 
blsbls99
Posts: 341
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 3:48 pm

Yeah, the AF DC-10s were from the UTA merger, right?
319 320 313 722 732 733 735 73G 738 739 742 752 763 772 CRJ D9S ERJ EMB L10 M88 M90 SF3 AT4
 
BEG2IAH
Posts: 853
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 6:36 pm

Right, they were from UTA.

BEG2IAH
 
aerosol
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 8:37 pm

What about:


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Photo © JetPix

 
bobnwa
Posts: 4460
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:43 pm

Looks like Trex8 could have done a little more research. All we need is a picture of a AF MD-11. I don't think we will see that though.
 
Aither
Posts: 990
Joined: Mon Oct 25, 2004 3:43 am

RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 10:17 pm

Sound like DFWrevolution is Airbus angry  Smile

I can’t say about all the statements because i just don’t know and i admit it.

However, saying Airbus has no 767 replacement … what about the A330 ? this aircraft has basically killed 767 sales over the last decade. It also flies many regional sectors and I never heard about airlines complains ! so I don’t really understand what you are saying.
Also about the A340 weight, you have to consider all economics : total payload, wing surface, ETOPS, etc. anf if you want something lighter, buy an A330 !

Also saying Airbus has posted two losses is misinterpretation : the two losses you are talking about are EADS losses mostly due to the satellite division. Airbus has and continue to make profits.

Regards
Never trust the obvious
 
DAYflyer
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 10:53 pm

Greaser,
Now, as said in the other posts, should airbus launch the A350, i always said why not Boeing launch the 747X???/737ERs Boeing has the resources and capital, all it needs to do is to hire some new staff (I know it's not that simple). This could leave airbus in a fix and they will not be able to launch a 3rd program, unless they want to become a Boeing/MDD/Airbus....hehehe

It's not so simple. All Airbus has to do is go to the Eurodogs for another cash handout to launch a third program, and a fourth if neccessary.....that way they can keep prices up to 10% lower than Boeing while launching anynumber of new programs. It's the only way they can compete.
One Nation Under God
 
Aither
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 10:59 pm

... and we all know Boeing has no government support, do we ?
Never trust the obvious
 
KateAA
Posts: 87
Joined: Fri Nov 05, 2004 10:41 pm

RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:02 pm

I thought in an indirect manor they did? Something about tax? I am not sure, so don't take my word for it.

Kate.

 
whitehatter
Posts: 5180
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:20 pm

DFW

What Boeing is losing out on is low-yield narrow body orders. Oh darn, Boeing missed a chance to scrap a 1% profit on precious delivery slots. By not flooding the market, Boeing has kept the resale value of their aircraft very high, which customers and lessors appreciate. And why is Airbus being so aggresive for narrow body orders? To keep cash flow positive as Boeing takes major high-yielding widebody order away from them.

That's not the point, and also not the way the general market works. resales mean little to Boeing unless it's them doing the reselling. Residuals are important but aircraft are generally twenty year or more cycles on an airline's books. At the twenty year mark then residuals are pretty low.

Sale profits are also not the major factor here. On a number of occasions Boeing's civil line sales have made an annual loss, but it's support which has pitched in with the $$$ and given them a healthy bottom line. Those fleets of A320 aircraft sold at discounts might not pay a short term profit, but how much are they going to realise in the aftermarket for Airbus?

Answer: plenty.
Justification: Boeing's published accounts

Twenty years of manufacturer approved and supplied consumables means twenty years of income. Add in occasionals such as damaged components and the overall deal starts to look attractive for income building rather than short term profit.

All Airbus has to do is go to the Eurodogs for another cash handout to launch a third program

More uneducated yackety-yack from someone who has no idea what he is talking about. Let's see just who gets embarassed at the WTO. My money is on Airbus losing the right to BORROW (not a handout) from State sources and Boeing coming away with an equally bloody nose.

Assuming, that is, the WTO actually agrees to take the US side's complaint as they have outstanding violations of their own to deal with which are currently not completely settled.
Lead me not into temptation, I can find my own way there...
 
User avatar
PanAm_DC10
Crew
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:36 pm

Back on Topic

Austrian Airlines has announced that they are in "Very Preliminary talks" with both Boeing and Airbus for the 7E7 or A350. No order expected for this year or next. Here is what the CEO said when asked about timing.

Austrian Airlines is considering both Boeing's planned 7E7
and Airbus's proposed A350 aircraft for possible orders ``in a
couple years,'' Chief Executive Vagn Soerensen said in an
interview yesterday at the carrier's Vienna headquarters.


A long way off still for any decision.

Also to update on the QR potential interest in the 7E7 today they said they hope to be ready to announce an order for 30 firm + 30 purchase rights in time for next years Paris airshow.

Regards
Ask the impossible to achieve the best possible
 
kaitak
Posts: 8934
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Fri Nov 12, 2004 2:02 am

There is a clear market for a type that will replace both the 763 and A330-200 on long thin routes; personally, I think the 7E7 is the ideal replacement; the A350 seems a bit close to the 332, but moreover, the 7E7-9 seems to have the higher capacity and airlines replacing (for example) a 270 seat 332 are unlikely to want a 250 seat 7E7. They will want some capacity growth.

I agree also that the 7E9 will complement rather than work against the 772. Boeing has an opportunity of developing a family of long haul twins, from the 250 seat 7E8 to the 400 seat 773ER, with the 280* seat 7E9 and 320 seat 772 in the middle. That's a pretty good spacing of capacity.

The one concern I have about Boeing is that they keep talking about a three class 7E8/9; about how many of the current 7E8 customers are likely to have three classes on their -8s? None - not the charters, not VN, ANZ or NH. So, why not show an awareness of up to date developments and show a two class arrangement which includes a Premium J class and Economy? According to my admittedly rough figures, 280 seats is the total for a 2 class 7E9 with about 24 Premium J class seats.
 
dalecary
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:48 am

Actually Kaitak,

NZ will be operating a 3-class long haul fleet in the future. F- will be dumped and the 3 classes will be J,Y+ and Y.
The 744s and 772ER will operate as 3-class aircraft. I'm not sure what they intend to do with the 7E7 fleet.

Dale.
 
Scorpio
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:08 pm

And Airbus needs to learn yield manegment. BCA has posted a consistent profit for the past four years, Airbus posted two losses.

It did? Care to show us a link to a report confirming that, because I can't find anything pointing to an Airbus loss...
 
N79969
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RE: More Possible 7E7 Orders...

Sat Nov 13, 2004 1:13 am


More uneducated yackety-yack from someone who has no idea what he is talking about.


Whitehatter,

You must be speaking about yourself. Despite all of the BS smoke kicked up by Europe recently, Boeing has not gotten the free diaper changes that Airbus has received for 30+ years. Airbus should have been dead had it been a real company 25 years ago.