BestWestern
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Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:46 am

http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh37524_2004-11-30_16-20-53_l30518897_newsml

Baseler also said Boeing was nearing a decision on whether to launch another new plane, an upgrade of the 747 jumbo jet tentatively called the 747 Advanced that would use four of the new fuel efficient engines being developed for the twin-engined 7E7.

"We should be making a decision on this in the first quarter or first half of next year," Baseler said.

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col
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:50 am

How many orders by year end Randy, 3 to 4,000.

Sorry don't have too much trust in this guy. If it is true, this is excellent news.
 
7e72004
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:01 am

wouldn't it be more economical to just have the 747 ADV instead of developing an entirely new plane...i think they could do a lot to the current 747 to make it a "next generation" 747  Big thumbs up
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Ken777
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:04 am

And A can make the 350 the 330NG . . .
 
DIA
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:09 am

"wouldn't it be more economical to just have the 747 ADV instead of developing an entirely new plane..."


The 747ADV is the new plane. It is based off the current 744. So, it will be economical. . .and it is not developing an entirely new a/c. So, it basically will be the 3rd Generation 747 if you count the 741/2/3/SP as the first Gen and the 744 as the 2nd Gen.
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7e72004
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:11 am

What i meant was instead of developing a new plane like the 7E7, just "update" the 747...you pretty much got what i was trying to say DIA
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mauilono
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:18 am

Good to hear, maybe it will be a true double-decker to compete with the A380??
 
Horus
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:19 am

A short while back an article in FI stated that Airbus predicted that over the next 20 years there would be a market for 1,500 aircraft with 500+ seats. Boeing predicted that over the same period there would be demand for 1,000 aircraft with 400+ seats. Now according to the article these estimates would account towards 8%-10% of total market in terms of numbers, but more significantly around 25% in terms of value at around $300 billion. Now wouldn't it be 'stupid' of Boeing to leave Airbus unchallenged in this market. If they don't wanna design a whole new aircraft than at the very least this proposed 747 Advance/Upgrade has to be pretty special to compete with the A380's economies.

Horus

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7e72004
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:22 am

Would anyone agree that it would be wise for Boeing to wait and see how the A380 does before going to far? I think in the meantime go ahead and work on the 747ADV but don't go all out.
The next generation of aircraft is just around the corner!
 
na
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:22 am

Enough talking, Boeing. Usually the Americans are more consequent and faster in doing than we Europeans, but this is an exeption. Now that Boeing is under threat, they seem to become somehow lethargic in decision-making and anxious about what to do.
Btw, from inside LH I have heard that they certainly wouldn´t go all-Airbus in the future and that a 747 Adv. would be very interesting to them.
 
7e72004
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:25 am

If you don't want to hear or read about boeing...then don't read it..stop trying to turn this into an A vs. B thing again...  Angry
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M27
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:32 am

7E72004

You made some wonderful points in your posts. I believe I understand what you where saying.
 
na
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:35 am

A vs. B? Me? You must be kidding. I´m on neither side, or, better, on both. The launch of the 747 Advanced would be the best aviation news for me in years! And I mean that in earnest.
I´m just tired of the endless delays Boeing causes on this project.
 
HR001
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:38 am

"Good to hear, maybe it will be a true double-decker to compete with the A380??"


Boeing has always said that if built the 747ADV would fit between the A-380 and 777/A340. not to compete with the A-380.
 
DIA
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:39 am

Before this becomes an all-out battle. . .

Let me just say, for what it's worth, I believe Boeing will make the 747ADV become reality and I think Boeing knows this as well, they just are going to sit on announcing it for awhile.

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HlywdCatft
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:56 am

Ok, I tend to be more pro Boeing than I do pro Airbus because I am sticking up for American workers and would like to see them keep their jobs since the economy is pretty much f***ed, but I kind of agree with Na.

First of all, in the early 90s, Boeing was going to make the NLA which was like the A380, then Boeing dropped it, but later were going to go into a joint venture with Airbus on the A3XX, but then they backed out...

I remember all throughout the 90s off and on Boeing was going to make this stretch 747-500X, 600X, 700 and I believe an 800. They had a big article on it in Aviation Week and I did a report on it for my technology class in college back in 1997.

I was really looking forward to this new aircraft, and if any of you seen the designs for it, it was kind of cool. The new 747s would have 777 engines and the 6 wheel main gear like the 777s in addition to the 4 wheel gears on the fuselage... the planes would have a stretched upper deck and be stretched.

I got all excited about the plane, then they dropped it.

Then a couple years later, they talk about doing a more conservative stretch 747, then they drop it

Now here they go again...

I really want to see a new 747 and a stretch 747 and I think it would do very well in the Asian markets. I think ANA and Japan Air would both go for it and there are a few others who would go for it too which wouldn't go for the A380. I think Singapore would have gone with the 747 stretch had it come out, but they got the A380 since Boeing is not offering anything bigger.

I don't think there will be a huge market for 500 + seat aircraft, but I think Boeing should offer the option and build it on the same line as their 400s, when the order comes, throw in the fuselage plug.



 
Ken777
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 5:09 am

I'm one of those that believe that B will move on the new 747 fairly soon and would not be surprised if they announce an order or two very shortly after the official launch.

For me, B is very much subject to the call of the airlines in terms of where they are going with the 747. While the airlines might not have been interested in previous upgrades I think that improved fuel performance will push this one through - the "E" in the 7E7 is catching on these days.

From a strategic position, B owns the 747 size slot and A owns the 380 size slot. B is in a position where they HAVE to defend their position in the slot they own. This forces the 747ADV, especially since the 380 is going into production.
 
hz747300
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 5:18 am

This is freakin' awesome news, man!!!!

I hope they build a short one with winglets called the 747-Adv-SP, which could do LAX-DEL nonstop, or SYD-JFK, or LHR-SYD (no res.). This is perfekt for airlines that have to accomodate airports whose tax-base refuse to pay for upgrades to support the flying bohemuth, A380.
Keep on truckin'...
 
Thrust
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 7:04 am

I certainly hope Boeing decides to go ahead with the project this time. THe 777 is almost up to its limits, so it can't cancel the 747-500X, 747-600X projects this time. They are certainly capable of challenging the A380. The A380 is probably going to knock off any future 747 sales and widen the amount of recent Airbus orders over Boeing orders. Boeing also needs to find a way to get their prices lower. THat is what is truly hurting them right now.
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Blackbird1331
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 8:26 am

The Boeing Stinkyworks probably has all the blueprints completed by now for the 47 Advanced. They just need to announce the go-ahead. I think they will since Airbus has given the go-ahead for the A350.

And who out there thinks there is not an AvB thing going on? Get a life.
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SailorOrion
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 8:37 am

That's the last info I got:

http://hq.fischer.homeip.net/747adv.pdf

SailorOrion
 
UA772IAD
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 8:52 am

7E72004: I agree, perhaps they should wait for the A380's results.
But then I realized how sucessful the 744 has been. At least one airline on every continent (ext. Antartica) has an airline with a 744 A/C (Asia, Europe and US have several). It is truly a global plane that is very presteigous and very popular, especially in Asia. I think that the 744 will not do anything to the A380 (VICE VERSA) because the seating market is different.
Additionally, because the 744 is so cosmopolitan (worldly) I think that alot of airlines would love to operate more of them if their efficiency was better. Redesining the 744 will answer these wishes. (I know UA would certainly like to return all their 744s to service). I think Boeing is targeting Asian and US markets, and leaving Europe, for now, to Airbus (their "homemade" product).
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:02 am

The airlines are saying we must commit or we move on," he said, citing a meeting with several carriers held in Hong Kong last month.

A truly interesting statement.

Think for a moment: A customer is telling Boeing to commit to the project once and for all or shut up about it.

Perhaps Boeing is stalling becuase it only has one cutomer with interest in a few frames but wants a commitiment from another customer before commitment and announcing?



One Nation Under God
 
cedarjet
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 9:45 am

I think that link is to an abbreviated version of the article, or I'm just confused. Sorry if this is nothing new:

Boeing hints 7E7 target could slip, eyes new jumbo

Tue Nov 30, 2004 01:17 PM ET

By Jason Neely, European Aerospace & Airlines Correspondent

LONDON, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Planemaker Boeing Co. is aiming for orders for 200 of its all-new 7E7 jets by the end of the year but would not be too concerned if that target slipped by a month or two, it said on Tuesday.

"That certainly is the target. If it becomes January, February, we are not too disturbed," Randy Baseler, vice president for marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes told Reuters.

"Harry's got the heat on us," he said, referring to Chief Executive Harry Stonecipher's hopes for firming up the orders by the end of the year.

With orders for just 52 7E7 plans so far, Boeing would need another 148 -- a record for one model in a single month.

"That would certainly be, if not the record, close to it," Baseler said.

Rival planemaker Airbus is expected to decide next month whether to begin marketing a new plane tentatively named the A350 to compete with the 7E7 and has said it would seek state aid as part of the launch.

Baseler said Boeing no longer recognises a 1992 deal that allowed such state aid.

"It's our understanding that the 1992 agreement is null and void," he told reporters. "Any (state-supplied launch) funding going forward for the A350 would be a violation," he said.


TURNING TO WTO

Washington filed a complaint with the World Trade Organisation last month over state launch aid, which Airbus receives and need not pay back should new models prove unsuccessful.

"I think that would be of great interest to the WTO," Baseler said of the possibility of Airbus seeking more for the A350.

Baseler said the A350, a longer-range version of the twin-engine A330, would mark a dramatic change in Airbus' stance, which for long routes has favoured four engines such as on its A340 as well as the double-decker A380 due in 2006.

"All of a sudden they are saying they can fly a twin-engine 7,500, 8,000 nautical miles. This really says their whole product strategy is being thrown out the window."

He said Qatar Airways and other airlines were interested in a 257-seat version of the 7E7 not due until 2010 but that he was not worried that Airbus would steal potential orders by matching the 7E7 with a version of the A350 ready by then or earlier.

"Not that could be as efficient in fuel, in maintenance, from a comfort point of view," he said.

As for the impact on Boeing's own line-up as it prepares for the 7E7 in 2008, Baseler said production jobs were safe for now on the 767, which many airlines are expected to replace with the new plane.

"Right now we don't have to make a decision for about a year, so we're comfortable," he said, noting that Boeing might even be in line for new orders for the 767 from carriers needing a plane until the 7E7 arrives.


NEW JUMBO

Baseler also said Boeing was nearing a decision on whether to launch another new plane, an upgrade of the 747 jumbo jet tentatively called the 747 Advanced that would use four of the new fuel-efficient engines being developed for the twin-engine 7E7.

"We should be making a decision on this in the first quarter or first half of next year," Baseler said.

"The airlines are saying we must commit or we move on," he said, citing a meeting with several carriers held in Hong Kong last month.

"These are airlines that have ordered the A380. They like 20 percent increments," he said, referring to the 555-seat double-decker and the desire of some carriers to have a plane about 20 percent smaller at 450 seats.

The 7E7 is Boeing's first all-new plane since the larger 777 was launched in 1990, though it has brought to market many derivatives based on existing models in that time, including a new freighter version of the 777 unveiled just this month.

Designed to offer lower fuel and operating costs, it will come in three versions seating 217-289 passengers and serve a market, in which Boeing sees demand for 3,500 planes over the next 20 years.
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N317AS
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 10:45 am

"Enough talking, Boeing. Usually the Americans are more consequent and faster in doing than we Europeans, but this is an exeption. Now that Boeing is under threat, they seem to become somehow lethargic in decision-making and anxious about what to do."


The good news for Boeing fans is Boeing doesn't spew their guts about everything they are doing. Just because they don't tell all to the press, doesn't mean we aren't doing something. Give us a break!!!  Insane
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flybynight
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:48 am

How many orders by year end Randy, 3 to 4,000.

Sorry don't have too much trust in this guy. If it is true, this is excellent news.


The news is definitely true. I heard it on a local radio station on the way to work in Seattle this morning.

Of course, whether or not Boeing actually goes through with, who knows.
The information on the radio was pretty lame, but I don't remember hearing anything about size increase of the the 747Advanced. They did mention "40 sleeper style" seats, and using advanced technology from the 7e7.

I would imagine a longer top floor would be part of the design to compete with the A380.

I guess my question would be, what airline would pick the smaller and overall older designed 747 over the newer (but ugly!!) A380?
The 747 is my personally favorite plane, but it seems to me that to truly compete with the A380, the ol' gal would need pretty substantial upgrades (primiarily in size).
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M27
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:19 pm

A small article frow ATW online.


http://www.atwonline.com/indexfull.cfm?newsid=4787

Cathay Pacific Airways expects to decide in the first half of 2005 on its long-term fleet plan. According to Director-Corporate Development Tony Tyler, the airline will be evaluating the A380/A340-600 and the 747-400ADV/777-300ER. Cathay has been mulling for some time the future direction of its long-haul fleet and has three A340-600s in service on the Hong Kong-New York route. Those aircraft are on short-term lease from ILFC. The carrier has been pushing Boeing on the 747-400ADV with the Trent 1000 engine being developed for the 7E7. Tyler told ATWOnline that so far Cathay has liked the initial numbers on the new 747 variant, but its proposed delivery in 2010 may be a problem although Airbus Chief Commercial Officer John Leahy told this website that the first available A380 slots are in 2010. However, it is understood that ILFC has earlier uncommitted slots. Airbus is making a strenuous effort to place the A380 in the Cathay fleet and there has been a flurry of activity in recent months.--Geoffrey Thomas

 
a380900
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:39 pm

737 and 747... Now, isn't it time to draw some new planes? Enough extreme makeovers of old ladies!
 
Thrust
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:46 pm

Actually, A380900, finding a way to make over "old ladies" as you call the 737 and 747 is a more efficient approach than an entirely brand new aircraft. In fact, by trying makeovers of these aircraft, that is often how new designs can emerge. Also, seeing you are a loyal Airbus fan, if you don't have anything good to say about Boeing, keep your thoughts to yourself  Big grin  Big thumbs up
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scotron11
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 12:52 pm

How many A380 aircraft do Airbus need to sell to break even? From the orders so far, I think they may lose their shirt on this one.

Hopefully Boeing does go ahead with the 747ADV.....I think it would be awesome .......absolutely awesome!
 
HlywdCatft
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:07 pm

**""How many A380 aircraft do Airbus need to sell to break even? From the orders so far, I think they may lose their shirt on this one.""**


We figured this out in a finance class once, different people got different answers after plugging in various factors. The lowest number somewhat figured was 350, the biggest was 500. It doesn't matter, If Airbus only sells 200 A380s, EADS will subsidize the rest.
 
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VirginFlyer
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:47 pm

I would ask everyone to please keep this on subject - Boeing's decision on the 747 Advanced. I have just removed a number of the more wildly off topic posts. If you can't keep it on subject, than I will have no choice but to lock this thread.

If people can't conduct themselves in a civilised manner, they can expect to find themselves suspended. It is inexcusable that we are unable to discuss a simple topic like this because people can't show some level of maurity.

V/F
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greaser
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 1:58 pm

Most probably Boeing see Airbus eyeing a 380-700 (shrink) as most airlines would want, in the area of 744-A380 size, in which Cathay Pac and even Lufthansa are interested in. So this is their (Boeing) chance to seize that market and leave Airbus to the ultra-large market.
Even if Airbus claims one may not need to fill the planes but sell their range of the A380, the 747-ADV/X could basically be a 500 seater with the range closer to the 777-200LR (maybe 600nm less)
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N328KF
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:29 pm

Shrinks don't work. Usually.
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lutfi
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:43 pm

Wouldn't be surprised to see more interest in the cargo version than the pax version - the B747F ADV would have great economics IMHO.

My understanding is that the airlines and Boeing are in a chicken/egg situation.

Airlines - if you build it it, we'll agree to buy it
Boeing - If you buy it, we'll agree to build it

But neither Boeing or the airlines are willing to invest up front development costs...
 
Carpethead
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:45 pm

The last two projects Boeing did with slight tweaking turnout to be losers. (753 & 764) New engines are a little different but for some strange reason I don't see the 747Adv as a good solution. Of course, developing a totally new plane of this size is even worse business decision.

For starters, SQ is off the market because of their orders for 773ER & A380.
JL won't even think about replacing its 744/743 for another ten years because they keep their aircraft for a long time.
NH will likely replace 744/744D with 773ER/773 & 7E7. They want to simplify their fleet not complicate it. The hidden factor maybe engine commonality and cockpit similarities though.
BR will convert its 74E to full freighters and 773ER will takeover high-capacity flying.

Then again I may be wrong and BA, CX, LH & others may line up and order 747Adv by the dozens, so who knows. Just my opinion.
These speculative topics are always fun, hearing some good arguments.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:52 pm

Lutfi, I think you've maybe hit the nail on the head there. One potential 747ADV customer, which nobody has mentioned yet, is BA. They, however, are not prepared to be a launch customer for an aircraft any more. So potentially one of the biggest customers for this aircraft would be unlikely to want aircraft straight off. With 57 747-400s in service, T5 opening in 2008 and its longhaul fleet near enough operating at full stretch, BA is one of those carriers Boeing would love to buy this aircraft if it is launched.
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greaser
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 2:56 pm

CarpetHead, you have to remember why the B753 'failed'. Firstly, it came way too late to the market. Second, 9/11 had a profound effect on 757/767 sales. The 757-300 has great economics, and so it wasn't a failure on the tech side. But on the sales, unfortunately it wasn't meant to be.
Now you're really flying
 
Boeing Nut
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:05 pm

737 and 747... Now, isn't it time to draw some new planes? Enough extreme makeovers of old ladies!

If it ain't broke............................
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ZK-NBT
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:10 pm

Hopefully Boeing will launch this aircraft! There are quite a few potential customers for the pax version, QF, BA, LH, CX, MH, KE and then several for the Freighter version aswell, CI, KE, SQ etc.
 
spacecadet
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:11 pm

Perhaps Boeing is stalling becuase it only has one cutomer with interest in a few frames but wants a commitiment from another customer before commitment and announcing?

I'm sure it's more than that. People act like getting ANA and JAL to buy 10 or 15 planes each would be enough to justify a major investment in R&D and production costs, not to mention the extra overhead (vs. just shutting down the 747 line and freeing up those resources). Even the A380 is nowhere close to breaking even with the number of orders it has so far (and it's got what, like 180 so far?).

The question is not whether Boeing is able to get an advance commitment on 50 or 100 new model 747's. The question is if the program could be profitable in any sort of time frame, or whether the resources they'd have to spend on such a program would be better spent on other projects with greater profit potential (such as an eventual replacement for the 737, using technologies pioneered in the 7E7).

People here want to see Boeing come out with a plane to compete with the A380, just to see who wins. But that's not the way business works. If one company does one thing and another company thinks that thing is foolish, then they'd be foolish to follow them into that market. That's the question Boeing is wrestling with right now - they and Airbus both know the number of orders the A380 has right now is not enough for the program to break even; the question is, will it have a large enough continuing market going forward to change that? And even if it does, would basically splitting that market with Airbus be worthwhile?

I would think the airlines that are asking Boeing to commit are saying that because otherwise they're going to order A380's, and they can't wait forever for Boeing's decision. But Boeing themselves obviously doesn't see it as important enough to be in a big hurry. My guess is that means they're still leaning towards not doing it. I personally would hope they do, but reading this makes me less convinced that they will.
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anxebla
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:48 pm

The 9/11 issue was bad also for Airbus, not just on the Boeing's case!

I think it's a good idea seeing to Boeing developing a new 747's generation. But the main competition on this matter comes from "his cousin" the B777-300ER since the A-380 is a bit bigger than any 747 new-generation.

And I don't know if Boeing wish its planes can to compete among themselves. On the other hand, it's important the Lutfi's statement (reply nº 34) when we are talking about the 747ADV

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greaser
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RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 3:53 pm

The 9/11 issue was bad also for Airbus, not just on the Boeing's case!
Not true when talking about the 757. Most of the 757s are in ths US, where aviation was hit the hardest.

Boeing has already said they do not want to build a 747 to compete with the 777-300ER. fThe 747-ADV/X will it between the 777-300ER/744 and A380, and directly compete with neither, unless the shrink 380 is built.
Now you're really flying
 
anxebla
Posts: 1696
Joined: Tue Dec 23, 2003 8:31 am

RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:06 pm

Boeing might saying any thing, but a 747ADV will be very similar with the 773ER's... (especially with the new ETOPS-330' rule, which means nearly no ETOPS) even on the price question

But, of course, I would like seeing the 747ADV's flying within a few years  Smile

AIRBUS 320 The world's most advanced single-aisle aircraft
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 4:41 pm

..."Shrinks don't work. Usually"...

Difficult to generalise on this one. The A332 worked very well but A318 and B736 haven't. Seems to work where the object is to obtain more range rather than just have an aircraft with less seats.
An A380-700 shrink would be chasing 8500m plus range but would be heavy as the wing has been designed for the A380-900. This is the 450 seat category that would be contested by the 747Adv - if the 747Adv is launched it would probably close the door on the A380-700.

.."Would anyone agree that it would be wise for Boeing to wait and see how the A380 does before going to far?"...

No - the window of opportunity is from now until EIS of the A380. Once the A380 is flying and performance data becomes available then other airlines will start placing orders for the A380 - these are orders Boeing can steal. While the 2 aircraft are in different categories there are many 744 operators who may prefer to integrate the 450 seat 747Adv into their fleets rather than undergo the daunting task of introducing the A380.
This is all predicated on the 747Adv having fuel efficiencies similar to the B777 or A380. The 7e7 engines will play a big part here - the availability of state of the art engines in the correct thrust class completely funded by another program gives the 747Adv its best chance yet of being launched.
Boeing will no doubt be promoting the cost savings of having the same engines for operators of both the 7e7 and 747Adv.

Boeing seems to be realising that it doesn't suit all of the 744 operators out there to convert their entire fleets to B777 sized aircraft. There is a significant replacement market out there. This market would not justify the development costs of a completely new aircraft ($10B+) but could well provide a good return on the cost of an efficient derivative ($4B). Boeing have well developed expertise at breathing new life into old designs.

I hope it becomes a reality.

Cheers,
StickShaker
 
scotron11
Posts: 1181
Joined: Tue Feb 10, 2004 4:54 pm

RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 5:33 pm

Hey, you never know, BA may change their minds. If the first delivery date was 2010....well, their current 744's will be up there in age....maybe...just maybe!
 
JAL
Posts: 3876
Joined: Sun Apr 30, 2000 12:37 pm

RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:05 pm

Why not just come up with an all-new model??
Work Hard But Play Harder
 
greaser
Posts: 1040
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2004 5:55 pm

RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Wed Dec 01, 2004 11:59 pm

JAL, Boeing has not firmed up any real plans on the 747, so anything is really up in the air. Boeing has to analyse the current and future situation, how long will a new-build take from concept to rollout. It needs to talk to the engineers, maybe a new build won't be much better than an ADV, they need to talk to the customers, what do they want. But right now, nothing has been firmed up except the fact that there will be a 747X
Now you're really flying
 
iowa744fan
Posts: 906
Joined: Sat Apr 03, 2004 1:31 pm

RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Thu Dec 02, 2004 1:15 am

SailorOrion,

Thanks for that link. I have been trying to find out some details on the proposed 747ADV for a while. Many thanks.  Smile
 
Ken777
Posts: 9046
Joined: Thu Mar 11, 2004 5:39 am

RE: Boeing Nears Decision On 747 Upgrade

Thu Dec 02, 2004 3:08 am

In the short term - the next year or so - going with the 747ADV is going to hit profits. B's profits, however, have been increased because of W's military spending so there is money in the bank to get on with it. B will not be in a better position financially than now in terms of handling the 747ADV.

Longer term, the 747ADV is critical for B. It would be insane for B to give A the total jumbo market as that would exert too much downward pressure on sales of smaller aircraft. B created this market and failure to stay in it will make them look rather impotent to both airlines and shareholders.

Unfortunately, too many businesses (including B at times) are more interested in this year's profits than the long term goals of the company. Short term objectives are the only real danger to the 747ADV.

My money is on the 747ADV. (I have a huge 25 shares of their stock in my IRA.) I believe the 747ADV will put a lot of pressure on the mid range 380 and eliminate the 380 mini from the market. The performance of the 747s over many years will also provide significant support in competing with the 380s for this particular size slot.

It's time to get on with it!

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