teahan
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:11 am

Airbus released their November update of their Order spreadsheet on Monday.
http://www.airbus.com/doc/media/ordersndeliveries/orders_n_deliveries.xls

Not very much new except for one Eva A330-200 and a few conversions.

That leaves a huge number of announced during 2004 but still outstanding orders:

Etihad Airways 4 A380-800, 4 A340-500, 4 A340-600 and 12 A330-200
Thai International 6 A380-800, 1 A340-500 and 1 A340-600
Vietnam Airways 10 A321
Virgin Atlantic 13 A340-600
Hainan: 8 A319
Air Berlin-Niki 70 A320
Air China 23 A320
Total: 156

The Vietnam deal has supposedly been confirmed, though that still leaves 146 orders. Will be interesting to see how many of these will be confirmed in December (aren’t the manufacturers always keen to clean up their order books) or if many will get pushed into 2005.

Strongly Rumoured:

Air Asia 40 A320
Lufthansa 7 A340-600 (confirmed by the airline)

Jeremiah
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N328KF
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 11:14 am

What's the comparative number of outstanding Boeing orders?
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JoFMO
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 12:24 pm

I don't think that Airbus is too keen to announce these orders still in this year. As far as I know they are already in front of Beoing, and as far as Boeing doesn't come out with some big 7e7 orders, it is better for Airbus to hide theirs.
 
col
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 12:48 pm

Airbus up to end Nov had 218 aircraft on order, of which 179 narrow bodies and 39 wide. Good news for Airbus is that these orders are for aircraft in production.

Boeing order book is at 211. 124 narrow bodies, and 97 wide bodies. 35 wide body orders are for aircraft in production, rest 7E7. Also, 50 orders are for unidentified customers, which possibly shows a large amount of military cutomers.

The numbers are fairly similar in orders, with Boeing having more wide bodies, but Airbus are in a stronger position short term due to their orders being for units in production.

Looks like a very changing situation over the coming years! Hopefully a change of sales team at Boeing will help the 737.
 
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:07 pm

Col:

Yes, there are definitely several military orders in there, some of which are 767s.
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col
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:12 pm

N328KF

The 762/764 I know, those damn 3 x 763 and 1 x 763F has me befuddled. Who is/are the customers? JAL/ANA and Asiana?
 
Hamlet69
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 1:36 pm

"Hainan: 8 A319"

Actually, these have already been accounted for by the conversion of existing CASC orders.


Another interesting aspect of Airbus' recent update is the significant reduction in A318 backlog as GECAS has converted 16 A318's into other A32X models.

Regards,

Hamlet69
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777ER
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Have the other 30 orders for the B7E7 been included in the Boeing tally?
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Flying-Tiger
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 8:43 pm

@ Hamlet69: Concerning the A318: it is a niche-product as is the B736. None of them being really hot-sellers, and will never be. For Airbus it was a comparably inexpensive addition to its portfolio with a good fallout: destroying sales of the B717 and harming the B737-600, thus denying Boeing sales successes.

That GECAS is now converting their orders into other (more expensive) A32S family members just shows that there is more demand in this range. I wouldn´t count too much into this.
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Thu Dec 09, 2004 8:52 pm

Have the other 30 orders for the B7E7 been included in the Boeing tally?

No, since they are not yet signed orders. Given that the 7E7 design is not even frozen yet, I'm not surprised that they currently only have two committed customers.
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Fri Dec 10, 2004 3:48 am

Flying-Tiger,

No disrespect to Airbus was intended. Of course I'm aware of the niche-placement of the A318. Personally, I doubt either it nor the 736 will ever achieve 100+ orders, let alone the place the A318 was at when it launched (IIRC, @ 130).

That being said, IMO, Airbus didn't really need the A318 in the first place. Boeing wasn't selling the 737-600 too much to start with. The 717, though being looked at by many airlines, wasn't really selling well either. In this market, Airbus launched the A318, which required more development work than most 'simple-change' derivative models, and cost much more than Boeing had invested in the 737-600 (which was developed concurrently with other 737NG, while the A318 was a stand-alone product). You'll also notice that all the airlines that bought the A318, probably weren't going to buy the 717 anyway. Thus, the only order the A318 really stole was Frontier's, who were widely expected to go 737NG. Even this order I would argue wasn't really due to the A318, but to Boeing's lackluster response to Frontier's RFP.


777ER,

No, only ANA's and ANZ's 7E7 orders have been firmed up. First Choice (6), Blue Panorama (4), Primaris (20) and Vietnam (4) all have to be firmed.

Regards,

Hamlet69
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teahan
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:20 am

More for the list:

Etihad Airways 4 A380-800, 4 A340-500, 4 A340-600 and 12 A330-200
Thai International 6 A380-800, 1 A340-500 and 1 A340-600
Vietnam Airways 10 A321
Virgin Atlantic 13 A340-600
Hainan: 8 A319
Air Berlin-Niki 70 A320
Air China 23 A320
Lufthansa 7 A340-600
TACA 14 A32S
Air Asia 40 A320

Total: 217
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Areopagus
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:51 am

Airbus launched the A318, which required more development work than most 'simple-change' derivative models

That's because they added new technologies, like laser welding to replace riveting. But that technology then gets folded into the rest of the A320 line, so the expense wasn't wasted.
 
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 4:59 am

This week's Flight International also reports that Leahy has said an unannounced Asian customer has recently signed an MoU for 5 A380s. He said he hoped to announce the customer in the next few months.
 
NYC777
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 6:42 am

As of Dec. 14th, Boeing has orders for 218 not including the large SIA 773ER order.

http://active.boeing.com/commercial/orders/index.cfm
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Springbok747
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:04 am

Does this Airbus order also include the 14 A400Ms that were ordered by the South African Air Force?

See http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?storyID=7105192

Cheers!
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:07 am

It certainly should not! If that were the case then Boeing should be able to count C-17 order/deliveries. These counts are for commercial airliners.
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:13 am

Nyc777:

No crap. C-17 order count: 184, in the spring will be 226...that would prop up the order books quite a bit.
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:25 am

Teahan

Will be interesting to see how many of these will be confirmed in December (aren’t the manufacturers always keen to clean up their order books) or if many will get pushed into 2005.

I think we'll see a bit of both. Shareholder demands usually ensure that once a fleet decision is made the news is made public and then all the final details delay official signing. Also believe that Airbus probably did a little better than they expected so they may hold some over.

The 2 orders I like are LH for 7 346. A good follow on order for the 346 and TACA's 32X series and the 5 A321's in there. I too am not sure that we'll see a new order "booked" for the 8 A319 as I believe they are coming from an existing CASC order, maybe a conversion of some CASC 320 to 319 though?

Scorpio

This week's Flight International also reports that Leahy has said an unannounced Asian customer has recently signed an MoU for 5 A380s. He said he hoped to announce the customer in the next few months

A Chinese carrier is believed to be for this with Air China, China Eastern and China Southern among those considered the most likely. I think there was a recent post about this that may provide a bit more on the MoU.

Thanks for the update.

Regards

PANAM_DC10







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Sjoerd
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 8:23 am

Will be interesting to see how many of these will be confirmed in December

Knowing Airbus they will save some orders to firm up at the Airshow at Le Bourget.  Wink/being sarcastic

[Edited 2004-12-17 00:25:05]
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Planesmart
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 8:47 am

Airbus are definitely saving orders for 2005, in particular repeat orders for A32.
Partly to keep for 2005 figures, and partly to reduce 'trade war' talk & pressure.

Some orders may be announced just before Xmas, when politicians are on holiday.
 
teahan
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(Gross)Confirmed Orders this year:

Undisclosed Customers 2 A319 (2 orders) and 1 A321
Qatar Airways 1 A319 and 3 A330-300
Emirates 2 A340-500
Air Tahiti Nui 1 A340-300
Private Customers 1 A319 and 2 A320 (2 orders)
Government of Brazil 1 A320
Independence Air 16 A32S
Cathay Pacific 3 A330-300
Tarom 4 A318
Spirit Airlines 15 A32S
China Southern 21 A32S
Iberia 3 A340-600
JetBlue 30 A320
Eurofly 1 A319
Jetstar (Qantas) 11 A320
Qantas 1 A330-300
America West 18 A32S
Azerbaijan Hava 4 A319
Cebu Pacific 12 A319
Air Deccan 2 A320
Turkish Airways 31 A32S and 5 A330-200
Air China 6 A319
China Eastern 20 A330-300
Eva Air 1 A330-200

Total: 218

@PANAM_DC10:

Thanks for the correction 8 A319s correction. An updated version, now also including the A380 MOU:

Etihad Airways 4 A380-800, 4 A340-500, 4 A340-600 and 12 A330-200
Thai International 6 A380-800, 1 A340-500 and 1 A340-600
Vietnam Airways 10 A321
Virgin Atlantic 13 A340-600
Air Berlin-Niki 70 A320
Air China 23 A320
Lufthansa 7 A340-600
TACA 14 A32S
Air Asia 40 A320
Unknown 5 A380

Total: 217
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Ivo
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 6:14 pm

Vietnam signed the contract on 8 december for 10 A321.

http://www.airbus.com/dynamic/media/press_releases.asp#1629

Ivo
 
na
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 6:49 pm

LHs A340-600 order is already the cover story of the current in-house newspaper. Its written there its for planned growth as well as for replacement of existing airplanes in the fleet (that leaves us to guess whether the aircraft to be replaced are A340-300s or early 744s -my guess the first A340-300s will have to go, rumours have it Air Namibia will get 2).
 
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:10 pm

@ NA: Guess that those A340-600s will replaced the leased A340-300s (2 AFAIK) with the remaining 5 used for expansation (with the usual A346 replaces A343 which opens new route). I doubt that any B744 replacement is near, LH needs this capacity at the moment.
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na
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 8:01 pm

Flying-Tiger,
I forgot about these two. Yes, I´m absolutely with you, thats the most likely choice. B744s won´t go, hardly thinkable that any will leave before 2010 unless LH Cargo wants some after LH got the first A380s, or LH orders 747 Advanced.
 
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Buyantukhaa
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 9:17 pm

Pardon my ignorance, but where's the massive Emirates A380 order in these figures? Was that already signed in 2003? Or does it still have to be signed?

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keesje
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 9:28 pm

add two 777s for KLM...
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HlywdCatft
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Fri Dec 17, 2004 10:57 pm

Wasn't the Emirates A380 order made back when the plane was still called the A3XX like back in 2000-01?
 
teahan
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:38 am

Updated to include today's Air Hong Kong Deal:

(Gross) Confirmed Orders this year:

Undisclosed Customers 2 A319 (2 orders) and 1 A321
Qatar Airways 1 A319 and 3 A330-300
Emirates 2 A340-500
Air Tahiti Nui 1 A340-300
Private Customers 1 A319 and 2 A320 (2 orders)
Government of Brazil 1 A320
Independence Air 16 A32S
Cathay Pacific 3 A330-300
Tarom 4 A318
Spirit Airlines 15 A32S
China Southern 21 A32S
Iberia 3 A340-600
JetBlue 30 A320
Eurofly 1 A319
Jetstar (Qantas) 11 A320
Qantas 1 A330-300
America West 18 A32S
Azerbaijan Hava 4 A319
Cebu Pacific 12 A319
Air Deccan 2 A320
Turkish Airways 31 A32S and 5 A330-200
Air China 6 A319
China Eastern 20 A330-300
Eva Air 1 A330-200
Vietnam Airways 10 A321
Air Hong Kong 2 A300-600F

Total: 230

@PANAM_DC10:

Thanks for the correction 8 A319s correction. An updated version, now also including the A380 MOU:

Etihad Airways 4 A380-800, 4 A340-500, 4 A340-600 and 12 A330-200
Thai International 6 A380-800, 1 A340-500 and 1 A340-600
Virgin Atlantic 13 A340-600
Air Berlin-Niki 70 A320
Air China 23 A320
Lufthansa 7 A340-600
TACA 14 A32S
Air Asia 40 A320
Unknown 5 A380

Total: 207

Seemingly serious Rumours:

Air Europea 10 A350
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Scorpio
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 6:21 am

BTW, I see no mention of the selection of the A32X by CSA, or will those all be leases?
 
teahan
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 7:13 am

You make a good point about those 12 CSA A32S.

Firm Orders: 230 see ^^

New unconfirmed Orders:

Etihad Airways 4 A380-800, 4 A340-500, 4 A340-600 and 12 A330-200
Thai International 6 A380-800, 1 A340-500 and 1 A340-600
CSA 12 A32S
Virgin Atlantic 13 A340-600
Air Berlin-Niki 70 A320
Air China 23 A320
Lufthansa 7 A340-600
TACA 14 A32S
Air Asia 40 A320
Unknown 5 A380

Total: 219

Seemingly serious Rumours:

Air Europa 10 A350

Airbus managed 284 firm orders in 2003, we should be expecting at least the same number this year. I suppose we'll be waiting until mid-January before we know for sure.

[Edited 2004-12-17 23:22:41]
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Sjoerd
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 7:33 am

I 'll try to make Boeing's list : (Please complete)

Confirmed orders (as on Boeing's website) :

213

Confirmed this week (not on Boeing's list yet)

SIA 18 B773
KLM 2 B772
Etihad 5 B733

Unconfirmed

GOL 43 B737 (there are 17 orders on the list already ?)
Primaris 20 B7E7
First Choice-Blue Panorama 10 B7E7
Vietnam 4 B7E7

78

Total : 316

There are probably more unconfirmed orders, maybe someone can help ?







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teahan
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 8:07 am

@Sjoerd:

Can't you start your own topic.  Big grin

General thought was that Etihad's 5 plane 777-300ER order had already been included in as 'undisclosed' in the firm order list (213 you mention). Today there is some doubt about that due to the omission of a statement in the press release. We'll have to wait until next week to be sure.

GOL, 43 was the total incl. options announced several months ago with the firm part of the order already included on Boeing's list.

Primaris also has a 20 unconfirmed 737-800s.

Blue Panorama's 4 7E7s were apparently firmed today; this should reflect on Boeing's list next week.

Thai International 6 777-200ER are still no confirmed either.

Vietnam's 7E7 commitment was never publicly announced so I would not include it.

That gives us:

Confirmed Published: 213
+just confirmed: 24 (Singapore, KLM, Blue Panorama)

Total: 237 (maybe +5 depending on Etihad)

Unconfirmed:

First Choice 6 7E7
Primaris 20 7E7 and 20 737-800
Thai 6 777-200ER

Total: 52



[Edited 2004-12-18 00:09:44]
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 8:18 am

Sjoerd

GOL 43 B737 (there are 17 orders on the list already ?)

The original order was 43 which was 15 firm and 28 purchase rights. 2 more were later ordered and todays order is conversion of 4 more purchase rights, you'll see 21 listed for GOL when Boeing update their site. There are reports emerging that Blue Panorama confirmed their order today too and there are also 6 772 for Thai, Hope that helps.

Teahan, got a question if I may.

Does Airbus include sales to the military as Undisclosed orders such as the A330 Series ordered for the RAAF Tanker requirement? You'd be aware how Boeing list their sales to the military, does Airbus report in a similar manner? I couldn't find it on their site even under the undisclosed for 2004.

Regards






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Hamlet69
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 9:41 am

"Vietnam's 7E7 commitment was never publicly announced so I would not include it."

It was by the airline, just not by Boeing. Similar situation to the Lufthansa A436 add-on.

Regards,

Hamlet69
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PanAm_DC10
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 7:47 pm

What about the A320 Series order by Virgin America or are they to be leased and already ordered by a Lessor?

Regards
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teahan
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Sat Dec 18, 2004 10:54 pm

@PANAM_DC10:

Good point regarding the Virgin America A320. 11 A319 and 7 A320, in addition to 15 leased A320 from GECAS. Any others you can think of?

Not sure how to answer your question because I'm unclear what the 'include' refers to (include in their order book or annual result order totals?). Airbus obviously does not include any military orders in their main published order book, unlike Boeing (take the 6 frame 737 order by the US navy).

In a recent topic (Airbus And Boeing, 2004 Orders So Far, in early Nov.) I argued that for a fairer comparison, 'military' orders listed in the main Boeing books should not be included. Several members however disagreed.

@Hamlet69:

When/where did Vietnam Airlines actually announce it? It certainly was never reported in any mainstream or aviation media as far as I am aware.

***

Today's news:

AFP reports that Kingfisher has signed a firm contract for 10 A320s. Updated list:

Firm Orders 230 ^^
+ Kingfisher 10 A320

Total: 240

Unconfirmed Orders 219 ^^
+ Previously omitted Virgin America 18 A32S

Total: 237

240 + 237 gives us 477, ever so near to the 500-order announcements milestone during the course of 2004.

Seemingly serious rumours:

Air Europa 10 A350

Jeremiah
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Hamlet69
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Sun Dec 19, 2004 4:39 am

Teahan,

"When/where did Vietnam Airlines actually announce it?"

I'm surprised at you. Following as close as you do the Airbus press, you missed it when Vietnam's President & CEO, Mr. Nguyen Xuan Hien, stated the day they finalized the 10 A321's that they had placed deposits on 4 7E7-8s. Of course, it was naturally omitted from the actual Airbus press release. . .


"Airbus obviously does not include any military orders in their main published order book, unlike Boeing"

Then you might want to check out http://www.airbus.com and download their Orders & Deliveries Excel spreadsheet. A quick glance shows me 9 different government and/or military operators. At the moment, only A319CJ's have been ordered new-build, but once Britain signs a final contract, I doubt Airbus will hesitate to put it down.

Regards,

Hamlet69
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AAplatnumflier
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Does anybody have any info on Boeing??
 
Aither
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Sun Dec 19, 2004 5:05 am

It does not include A400M orders. Look twice at the spreadsheet.
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Hamlet69
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Sun Dec 19, 2004 5:17 am

"It does not include A400M orders. Look twice at the spreadsheet."

I never said it did. Nor does Boeing's include any C-17's. However, when a government or military buys a aircraft based on a civilian platform (A319, A310, A330, 737, 767, you name it) it is included in both Boeing's and Airbus's respective totals.

Regards,

Hamlet69
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teahan
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Tue Dec 21, 2004 12:58 am

@Hamlet69: I never said it did. Nor does Boeing's include any C-17's. However, when a government or military buys a aircraft based on a civilian platform (A319, A310, A330, 737, 767, you name it) it is included in both Boeing's and Airbus's respective totals.

I am somewhat confused. You state 'based on a civilian platform' but I have doubts that for example we will see UK's tanker order (well the new built part) on the Airbus order book. Next to the link you download the order book, it pretty clearly states 'civil air transport marketplace'

I would also argue there is a difference between an aircraft ordered by a government for VIP use and one used for actual military use.
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teahan
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Tue Dec 21, 2004 1:05 am

Another one for the seemingly serious rumour list, Air Deccan for up to 30 A320.

Firm Orders: 240 ^^

Unconfirmed Orders: 237 ^^

Seemingly serious rumours:

Air Europa 10 A350
Air Deccan up to 30 A320

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
Sjoerd
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:47 pm

514 (!) 2004 Airbus Orders, 247 Conf., 267 Unconf.

Tue Dec 21, 2004 2:56 am

Lufthansa signed it's contract for 7 A346s today and Australia's AF ordered 5 A332 tankers.

This makes :

Firm Orders : 252
Unconfirmed : 230
Rumours : 40
Total : 522

Not bad !

Boeing's total : 284
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
teahan
Posts: 4990
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 1999 11:18 pm

514 (!) 2004 Airbus Orders, 247 Conf., 267 Unconf.

Tue Dec 21, 2004 3:14 am

Sjoerd:

I personally won't include the Australian tankers since I don't believe military contracts are conductive to a fair comparsion. My total therefore stands at:

Firm Orders: 240 ^^
+ Lufthansa 7 A340-600

Total: 247

Unconfirmed Orders: 237 ^^
- Lufthansa 7 A340-600

Total: 230

Seemingly serious rumours: as ^^

Jeremiah


Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
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scbriml
Posts: 13384
Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2003 10:37 pm

514 (!) 2004 Airbus Orders, 247 Conf., 267 Unconf.

Tue Dec 21, 2004 4:00 am

I personally won't include the Australian tankers since I don't believe military contracts are conductive to a fair comparsion. My total therefore stands at:

[best panto voice on] Oh yes you should!

Boeing's sales figures include military variants of civil airframes. I'm sure Airbus will include it in their sales for 2004 - an A330 is an A330 regardless of version!
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!
 
Sjoerd
Posts: 350
Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 10:47 pm

514 (!) 2004 Airbus Orders, 247 Conf., 267 Unconf.

Tue Dec 21, 2004 8:50 am

VS order is firm now :

total firm : 260
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
teahan
Posts: 4990
Joined: Sun Nov 21, 1999 11:18 pm

514 (!) 2004 Airbus Orders, 247 Conf., 267 Unconf.

Tue Dec 21, 2004 9:16 am

@Scbriml:

I still doubt these tankers will be included but I guess we'll see next monthg.

@Sjoerd:

Where did you find that out re. Virgin? Can't find it on any of the usual sources.

Jeremiah
Goodbye SR-LX MD-11 / 6th of March 1991 to the 31st of October 2004
 
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scbriml
Posts: 13384
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514 (!) 2004 Airbus Orders, 247 Conf., 267 Unconf.

Tue Dec 21, 2004 6:40 pm

Where did you find that out re. Virgin? Can't find it on any of the usual sources.

It's a news item on the right-hand side of Virgin's home page:
http://www.virgin.com/eu/default.asp
Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana!

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