Cory6188
Topic Author
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Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2004 12:29 am

When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 6:15 am

There has been a great deal of speculation regarding who will get the China routes (CO has been under great scrutiny recently because of their extremely high widebody utilization with all of their new routes), but I'd like to know when we will find out? If the airlines are supposed to start flying in March 2005, it's not exactly a great deal of time to do advertising, set up counter and gate space in China, etc. So what's the deal?
 
Cory6188
Topic Author
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Joined: Mon Feb 02, 2004 12:29 am

RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 8:52 am

I'm really surprised that for all of the discussion that goes on, no one here on a.net has any clue.
 
dutchjet
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 9:26 am

I think that the new deal, allowing the increased flights between US and China, was signed in late-September - less than 3 months ago. My guess, and its only a guess, is that no decision will be made until after the new year. While CO and the other airlines are most anxious to get the authorities and CO has stated that it would like to start the EWR-Bejing service by March 2005, that is a date that was put out there by CO and not the governmental authorities. CO also has said that Shanghai would not start until sometime in 2006.

My guess is that we will hear something in mid to late Janaury - and if CO is selected, the EWR-Bejing service will begin about 3 months thereafter, ie, just in time for the Summer 2005 schedule.

 
A330323X
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 9:57 am

The final step in the various carriers' proposals, the Briefs, were submitted on November 22. I would guess that, in this case, we can expect the DOT to make a decision about 6-12 weeks after that. (It took over 6 months last time around.) Additionally, the DOT will issue a Show-Cause Order when it makes its tentative decision. That order will surely be appealed, about 21 days after being issued, and the appeals will be responded to, about 10 days after that. Then the DOT will consider the appeals and issue a final order, probably 2-4 weeks after that.

March 25, 2005, is when the authority becomes available, and the DOT would like it to be used as soon as possible. The carrier selected will be given 90 days from the date of the final order to begin service.
I'm the expert on here on two things, neither of which I care about much anymore.
 
Aither
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 10:01 am

Some US Airlines have said they would like to start the routes just before summer 2005...

so regulators better hurry.
Never trust the obvious
 
Cory6188
Topic Author
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 11:12 am

Thanks for giving such a well-done explanation, Ed. I really appreciate it - and things now make much more sense.
 
JoFMO
Posts: 1840
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2004 1:55 am

RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 1:24 pm

Is this application only for the new entrents or is UA's SFO-NRT-CAN application included?

I thought that all are included, but in the several press releases from AA,CO and DL over the last weeks why they should get the rights, nobody blamed UA'S application, but everybody else's.
 
PlaneGuy27
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 1:38 pm

No one cares about UA's application (i am not anti united, i fly them all the time) because the new frequencies are obviously going to be allotted to the carrier that wins the new designation. i.e. DL, CO, HA, or AA....

My guess is that AA will get the 2005 and CO will get the 2006 rights.

HA and DL don't stand a chance
 
ual777contrail
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 1:39 pm

UA and NW are established carriers in the pacific market, I do believe the rights included UA into CAN and NWA into their city. Airlines cant compete with these two airlines(in the pacifc), they can only hope they cant beat the others to the punch.


UAL 777 CONTRAIL
 
JoFMO
Posts: 1840
Joined: Wed Jul 14, 2004 1:55 am

RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 1:51 pm

My question was because I still haven't understood how the UA application is related to the others. Is there a special round for UA? When can we expect an announcement if UA will get it's rights? They want to start it#s flights in the middle of the year.
 
PVG
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 5:33 pm

I can't wait for someone to start flying PVG/JFK or EWR. I don't understand why it hasn't happened yet. The UA flights from ORD and SFO are often oversold in C class to PVG. I must meet 3 bankers a week from EC US here, so there must be alot of them coming over. I would think that the EWR/PVG market would be more interesting the the EWR/PEK market. Why is CO going to do it the other way around? Does anyone know? Anyway, I can't wait to be able to fly to New York area non-stop. It makes such a large difference on those long flights not to have to stop and schlep through another airport mid-way.
 
ZKOJH
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RE: When Do We Find Out Who Gets The China Routes?

Sun Dec 12, 2004 7:06 pm

It depends on which part of the world your airline fly's from, I know QF have just started syd - Shanghai, and NZ are aiming to open up AKL - Shanghai hopefully next year, with the triple 7..
Vietnam time..