blackknight
Posts: 222
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:40 am

The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:14 pm

First I would like to introduce myself. I have been a Airliners.net ghost for years downloading,watching and reading. My love of aviation is deep and my life is spent in it's web. My career and hobbies reflect it. I have wanted to join many times but have not due to the often non-factual, funny yet emotional comments. As an Engineer I seek to learn and understand. It is for this reason I suggest this topic.

In my career I have worked on parts for both Airbus and Boeing. I have been in numerous meeting with both. Today the competition between the two is at an all time high. Regardless of personal emotional opinions the aviation industry is at a crossroads. Many of my colleges where I work and at both Airbus and Boeing feel the same way. Airbus has an ability to turn out new or modified models faster than Boeing. The truth is the lack of fear in funding and sale price which even Airbus Purchasing Agents admit.

Regardless of emotional favoritism an industry without competition is on a downward trend. Would Airbus turn out additional models as fast without Boeing? True lovers of the aviation world as with the sport world have their favorites. The game though if not played fair and with an opponent is dull and boring. You may hate Airbus or Boeing but what would the industry be like without Boeing? Can both surrvive with the rules as they are? Where will we be in 5 years? 15 years?

This is not a red flag to a bull to start a fight but an attempt for all of us to review the facts.

P.S. Having dealt with the quality requirements and demands of both they are very similar and demanding. I hope the industry can work out it's issues so we can be fans of the game for a very long time.


BK
 
JetMechMD80
Posts: 370
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:38 pm

BlackKnight

You make some good points, It was a sad day when McDonald Douglas was bought by Boeing. But, and I feel that if there was only one builder of airframes left, that the innovation would cease. I don't feel however that this would happen should Boeing or Airbus go out of business. I hope nether do, but if one did, I think someone else would step in to fill the void. The Russians maybe? Or maybe Bombardier, or Embraer would step in. It would not take much for ether to build a larger airliner. Just my opinion.
"I get along great with nobody"~ Billy Idol
 
zippyjet
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 2:52 pm

A One World Monopoly would be counter productive. Competition breeds innovation and evolution. I feel if both Boeing and Airbus can hang on through what I feel will be a period of economic funk then, they will both fare for the better. Both company's are betting a lot on their latest new projects which are more evolutionary than revolutionary. The 7E7 and the giant Airbus A380 are variations on rather proven technology. In Boeing's case, leaner with long range capability and for Airbus, bigger is better. I hope they both fill their niche in the changing airline industry. With a stronger Airbus and Boeing, then maybe the next time around will be that step toward the frontier of hypersonic commercial air travel on a large and economical scale and not just a frivolous novelty for rich money men and show business divas.
I'm Zippyjet & I approve of this message!
 
Planesmart
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:27 pm

No-one in the aviation business would want to see one major western civil aircraft manufacturer, even A & B, and especially a.netters (no spirited A v B discussions).

If it looked on the cards, some airlines would take a strategic position and support the underdog, in much the same way Microsoft has supported Apple.

Does B need a White Knight now?

In contrast, A is on a roll. I'm not saying A models are better, but they are good with outsourcing, production scheduling, selling, product range, etc.

Another thread discusses flight deck commonality, yet there is far more behind the scenes commonality at A, like fuselage plugs and sections, doors, glass, etc.

It has taken A 30yrs to get where it is today, so there are no quick fixes for B.

One way the US Govt could assist B, is by requiring consistency between the armed forces. If the military could adopt the 'family' concept of aircraft solutions, it would be much easier for B to extend this into it's civil range.
 
StevenUhl777
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 3:40 pm

McDonald Douglas

Not to nitpick, but it's McDonell Douglas

And the winner for best actress is....REESE WITHERSPOON for 'Walk the Line'!!!!!!!!
 
StickShaker
Posts: 620
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 7:34 pm

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 4:34 pm

Hi BlackNight, welcome to A.net

You have raised some very pertinent issues.
I think the industry is on the threshold of some very interesting changes - particularly with the launch of the 7e7. Previously, manufacturers would introduce new technologies and materials gradually with each model but the 7e7 represents a quantum leap with its all composite construction. The result is Airbus had to respond with its 358/9 thus prematurely ending the careers of 2 models that were still relatively young - the 332/3. The 343 and 772 may suffer the same fate.
A similar process may occur when Boeing launches the new composite 737 replacement.

Would Airbus turn out additional models as fast without Boeing?
No - Airbus probably had no intentions of replacing the 332 until the 7e7 came along, the 350 is the direct result of strong competition.

Cheers
StickShaker
 
m404
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 5:35 pm

Blackknight

I agree wholeheartedly and have said so several times. Your point The truth is the lack of fear in funding and sale price... must be addressed by American citizens and the government. Why is this so at Airbus? Can it be that the form of backing, some here call it subsidy, could actually be the real way to bring back an industry vital to our debt, foreign trade, academic health, and even simple pride? Instead of attacking what some say is an unfair advantage should not we simply give our own industries the same rules. We keep screaming about an unlevel playing field SO why not stop butting into others systems and adopt what seems to be working. I dare say if it was a new proven aircraft design we would not hesitate but even try and adapt and improve it.
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
richierich
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:20 pm

McDonald Douglas

Not to nitpick, but it's McDonell Douglas


Actually, its "McDonnell-Douglas" but at least you had the right name even if the spelling was wrong.
None shall pass!!!!
 
rwylie77
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Joined: Fri May 28, 2004 6:11 pm

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:45 pm

I have never been able to understand the A vs. B on A.net....

In my opinion the strong competition in the market place between the two companies is superb for every one of us - it forces both to be innovative and constantly trying to improve their products so we can all travel across the globe in more safety, comfort and at a lower price.

We see new and interesting planes being developed - the A350 wouldn't be being developed if it was not for the 7e7 and the 7e7 might not have been developed if the A330 wasn't taking away sales from the 767. The 747 Advanced wouldn't even be thought about at Boeing if it was not for the A380 development.

So having two strong companies like Airbus and Boeing competing as they are is great for all of us as consumers and also as plane spotters - we get to see new aircraft being developed which are faster, more economical, safer and more comfortable. Everyone is a winner - the only reason anybody would want one of the two companies to dissappear is if you have an awful lot of shares/stocks in one of them and want to see a monopoly.
 
sebolino
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Wed Dec 15, 2004 11:55 pm

It was a sad day when McDonald Douglas was bought by Boeing

Happy meal for everybody in flight !  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
 
greaser
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:32 am

We see new and interesting planes being developed - the A350 wouldn't be being developed if it was not for the 7e7 and the 7e7 might not have been developed if the A330 wasn't taking away sales from the 767. The 747 Advanced wouldn't even be thought about at Boeing if it was not for the A380 development.

Competition does spark off many new things in business, but one has to know that Boeing did actually plan a replacement for every aircraft type, including the 777, it's only the dates that are very often changed. It just depends on current and future market conditions. Airbus also planned the A350 before they started saying it, as said before i'd bet they'd starting talking about one in July-August, maybe even as early as January
Now you're really flying
 
na
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:21 am

I´m not afraid Boeing is in any danger to go under facing Airbus on a run.
As both are the only survivors currently able to build big airliners it can´t be in the interest of any airline to favour just one of them for 100%. Its the fierce competition that leads to great products. Unfortunately "war" is most fertile in terms of advancement.

Both manufacturers products have reached an admirable quality unequalled in any market I can think of. The differences are so marginal that they create these sometimes funny A vs.B wars here who in the end are mostly based on emotions rather than facts. The development in the direction of increased safety are as stunning as in Formula 1 racing. Of the types developed in the last 20 years almost none have crashed, or in so low numbers it is neglegible.
 
blackknight
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:37 am


.......I have never been able to understand the A vs. B on A.net....

This not an A vs. B in fact it is about keep both A and B. What would we all do with our time if the game did not exist?

.......Competition does spark off many new things in business, but one has to know that Boeing did actually plan a replacement for every aircraft type, including the 777, it's only the dates that are very often changed. It just depends on current and future market conditions. Airbus also planned the A350 before they started saying it, as said before I'd bet they'd starting talking about one in July-August, maybe even as early as January

Yes I am very aware of future aircraft on the horizon. In fact the rush is on for the 737/A320 replacement. The problem is getting the design to the real world. Can any current manufacturer complete with Airbus without help? I am asking what will the landscape been in 25 years? In 50 years? Will aircraft manufacturers be paired with the countries which support them? Will sales reflect this? Will Airbus be left alone in the 200 + seat category?

I am a big fan of competition and enjoy the game. That is the point, please read my first post. It will not be as it is now in the future. If things stay the same I know from personal experience Boeing will not be able to compete. So where will we be?

If you must get out your crystal balls.
BK
 
flyabunch
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:45 am

Another factor in the competitive nature of the business is that it is much easier for a well funded new market entry (ie. Airbus) to setup an efficient operation. Boeing and MD are and were working with a long established routine, workforce, labor agreements, and plants. Airbus was able for the most part to start with a clean sheet of paper and build an efficent operation based on the building of commercial jetliners.

One only needs to look at a well-funded example in the airline business for comparisons. Jet Blue has racked up an enviable record of profit and expansion based on starting clean and with new equipment. They were able to control MX costs and build a great LCC airline.

I know it is not a direct comparison but it does have its similarities. Boeing has a heavier apparatus to get moving. They have made great strides in recent years. I think that they will do fine and I do not think there is any reason to fear that they will fail...the airlines themselves would not want to see it.

Mike
 
rwylie77
Posts: 322
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 2:17 am

Flyabunch - sorry, but I have to disagree...setting up a manufacturing company like Airbus is very different to setting up an airline. JetBlue have no R&D team, long and expensive product development cycles, factories etc etc...there are huge barriers to entry to starting a company to compete with Airbus and Boeing while you can set up an airline relatively quickly with much less capital.

Your comment is comparable to saying it is just as easy to set up a company building big ships as it is to set up a cruise company like Princess...they are completely different businesses.
 
NWA1978
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 2:39 am

Rwylie77,

Your missing the point. He is not saying they are the same type of company he is saying that a LCC is doing much better than the legacy airlines because they (legacy) have the expensive labor contracts and things of this nature where airtran or jetblue do not. This is why airtran is pulling in profits when delta is screaming. Boeing has been around just like the legacy carriers and airbus is fairly new like airtran. Hope that helps!!


[Edited 2004-12-15 18:41:18]
 
blackknight
Posts: 222
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:40 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 3:08 am

Interesting articles:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=7428

http://www.techcentralstation.com/121304A.html

Sorry still new and learning how to post links.
BK
 
flyabunch
Posts: 443
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 3:56 am

NWA1978 is correct. My point was that it is much easier to start with a clean slate in any industry. I realize that an airplane manufacturing company is much more complex than an airline, but a lot of the factors are comparable, just not on the same scale.

I would much rather start with a "well financed" clean setup than to have to deal with all of the old company traditions, work rules, unions, plants, and so on.

My grandfather ran a large manufacturing company in California when I was young. He had an opportunity come his way when the company decided to move locations to make way for a freeway. 1. stay with the existing company and move everything, workers, equipment, tools, rules, etc. in a new building. Or two, manage a brand new company in the same industry with good funding. He took the second option. He was able to setup a state of the art facility with much better productivity. They hit the ground running, had a great product with better margins and quickly became an industry leader.

mike
 
Planesmart
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 4:23 am

Flyabunch
"NWA1978 is correct. My point was that it is much easier to start with a clean slate in any industry. I realize that an airplane manufacturing company is much more complex than an airline, but a lot of the factors are comparable, just not on the same scale."

Agree

"I would much rather start with a "well financed" clean setup than to have to deal with all of the old company traditions, work rules, unions, plants, and so on."

Agree.

But, this is not how Airbus started. It was a collaboration of existing aerospace businesses, with existing labour contracts, existing factories and equipment, with Govts thrown into the pot as well.

Different parts of a/c construction were sub-contracted around Europe, partly to satisfy nationalistic pride and partly to keep employees working. Now of course it's called risk sharing, and has other spin-offs like natural exchange rate hedging.

Think back 20 years. How difficult would it have been to have B, McD and L working in a strategic alliance together, designing and building parts of aircraft, sharing the risks and rewards. Mission impossible, but thats what they did in Europe.

When B acquired McD, airlines waited with baited breath to see if this was simply taking out a competitor, or an acquisition to obtain expertise & resources. Regretably it seems to have been the former, and the opportunities have been squandered.

B would have been better off to keep their $'s for future a/c development, & not had the distraction of merging / managing facilities and staff. But a key motivation was to prevent A from acquiring an assembly capability in the US.

In hindsight perhaps B won the proverbial battle, but lost the war.
 
JetMechMD80
Posts: 370
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 4:28 am

"Think back 20 years. How difficult would it have been to have B, McD and L working in a strategic alliance together, designing and building parts of aircraft, sharing the risks and rewards. Mission impossible, but thats what they did in Europe."


Sorry, it was done in America also. It was called project Apollo.

[Edited 2004-12-15 20:29:21]
"I get along great with nobody"~ Billy Idol
 
Planesmart
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 4:41 am

Not quite the same JetMechMD80.

How many customers did Project Apollo have?
Were foreign manufacturers & governments involved as shareholders or contractors?
Did it involve alliances for civil and military applications?
Did they have to re-organise / close manufacturing plants, lay-off staff & agree shareholdings?
Did they have to agree which markets to target and which to drop?

As the title states, Project Apollo was a finite project, for one customer. It was very big, but at the end of the day, they were delivering one product, to one customer.
 
JetMechMD80
Posts: 370
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 4:51 am

My point was that almost the entire US Aerospace Industry came together to build project Apollo. I believe there were over 50,000 venders. And they all shared the risks, which were many, along with the rewards.
"I get along great with nobody"~ Billy Idol
 
ltbewr
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 4:59 am

It takes big companies to do make big things. Airbus is essentially the merger of a number of European aircraft and componet manufactures. Boeing took over McDonell-Douglas (which in turn was a merger of 2 companies). We see it in other industries like (in the USA) of the merger of Sears & K-mart, and as announced today, Sprint and Nextel. Both A & B make very similar specification products and some products with certain advantages over the other co's. Political and economic pressures are also factors too. You have Candair and Embraer making a/c that A & B really do not make and I see them moving into the market for the smaller A-319/737 range of a/c's. All business evolve and change as the markets, needs and technology changes. Some that do change and evolve will stay in business a long time (like DuPont from the early 1800's mainly in gunpowder to chemicals today). Maybe the aircraft and airline industries have reached the end of a sorts in recent years, but they are starting a new business model now.
 
DAYflyer
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:03 am

Great subject, and I have to admit both companies manufacture and sell great airplanes. I just want a level playing field where Airbus gets 0 subsidies (tax breaks are fine with me) so that they compete on a level playing field.

The competition is fierce, as it should be. It does bring out the best and worst on both sides. And yes, I agree again that Airbus does make a good product, although I do always hope Boeing wins it's fair share of the market in a level playing field.

Where will we be in 15 years? Right where we are right now: Boeing and Airbus going at each other full steam ahead, competing over every possible order and duking it out!!!  Smile
One Nation Under God
 
Ken777
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:16 am

While the industry for large planes is basically down to 2 companies the loss of one would probably generate development of a new company. A sole maker would increase prices, have problems with delivery times and, in general, make it attractive for someone to enter the market.

If one of the two gets too large a share there will probably be a tendency for them to develop a high level of arrogance, which is a good way to loose customer support very quickly.

If one of the two reaches a market share level where the word "monopoly" comes into play then legal battles (and related costs, fines, restrictions, etc.) would change the game dramatically. The costs associated with being a monopoly can make it desirable to return to a balanced market.

In any of these situations I see neither company wanting the whole market, no matter what they say.
 
M27
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:20 am

To all that have posted in this and other posts in regards to, airlines will make sure there are two manufactures because they see that if there is only one it will certainly not be a buyers market, I must disagree! Sure, they want as many manufactures as they can get, and certainly two, but they won't do anything about it! As long as they can get the aircraft much cheaper from one maker, they are going to do it. As an example, Airbus has been selling A32x family in tremendous numbers in the last months, so why didn't, say Air Berlin or Virgin America or purportedly Air Asia or any of the other Asian LCCs that have bought a32Xs step up and say "wait a minute, Airbus is getting too much dominance and power, we better buy some 737s"? The reason is because of the price, and it always will be till its too late. Some of these airlines may think, we will buy Boeing next time but we need to take advantage of these low prices now, and that will be the case next time also! Yes, they want a choice, but they won't do anything about it. They will take as cheap as they can get and say "let the other airlines buy the more expensive aircraft".

BlackKnight, you have come to the crux of the matter.The current WTO activity's may be the last chance to come to some sort of solution.

There are two different basic philosophies involved. One is that you use government funds to seek and provide jobs, by producing a product that is in demand, which has occurred with Airbus, and then you use these funds as needed to insure that the product stays in demand and you keep your jobs, etc that you have created, which Airbus has and is doing currently. The second philosophy is the free market system, where demand, quality, innovation, etc produce the product, price, jobs etc., and the company that is adept at using all these areas will do well.

Now, it is not my intent or purpose to say which one of these is the best way, but only to say that I don't think the two can be compatible in the long run without established rules and guidelines that both abide by. What is good for one Country or group may not be good for another. Which ever method is used may be the best for that country or group, but the problem arises when interaction between these two methods occur. It would appear that the first method will prevail when the two interact, and the eventual result will be the elimination of the group, country, etc using the second method. This may or may not be the purpose of the entity using the first method, (though it looks more and more like it is, as for as A&B are concerned) but if not constrained it will occur. I can think of no better example for this than the prices I'm seeing quoted for Airbus aircraft for Air Asia. If ever there was a case to take to a ruling organization or body, how could it not have been made by Airbus pricing in the last year or two? NOTE, I'm not saying Airbus cheated, or didn't comply with the agreements that had been in force, though I do find it a bit presumptuous (for lack of a better word) that they would seek government support for the A350, when the stated intent of the previous agreements was to eventually reduce and end the government support.

It would appear that baring an equitable agreement, then either BCAG will be forced too, or choose too cease to exist. The other solution(and my favorite) would be to move to the first Philosophy, but I'm sure "watchdog" groups and Senator McCain would object.

Perhaps a giant leap in technology (the 7e7 ?) above anything else available might prolong the inevitable, but even pricing will finally overcome that.

It took a long post to say I understand what you are saying BlackKnight.

Regards









[Edited 2004-12-15 22:26:49]
 
blackknight
Posts: 222
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:40 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:25 am

I hope they both are around for some time to come but I am sorry to say I don't think they will be under current conditions. (Unless things change)
To break down the issues:

1st Let's be honest everyone has national pride in their country of origin. NW used to bother me because of the fact they purchased machines not made in America. This is simply not the case. Anymore A & B combine products from various countries. My company provides more product to Airbus now than Boeing. In a way Airbus is somewhat American made.

2nd Aviation rules and regulations are strict and demanding to say A or B makes bad planes is unrealistic.

3rd It's all about money and the bottom line. Even when politics are involved.

4th If Airbus can get planes from design to market in 1/2 the time of Boeing and can as they "one up Boeing" each time. While selling the items @ margins less than Boeing. How can Boeing survive? If I owned an airline the bottom line would be king unless I got bonuses else where.

BK
 
KFLLCFII
Posts: 3174
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:33 am

I'm curious...Where do Antonov, Ilyushin, and Tupolev fit into this equation?
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
 
CXA330300
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:08 am

Its bound to happen. Oil also plays a role.
AC/AA/UA/DL/B6/WN/US*/CO*/FI/BA/IB/AF/SK/LX/Sabena*/TK/LY/SA/MN/SW/AM/CE*/CX/CA/MU/JL/SQ/TG/MH/KA/5J
 
katanapilot
Posts: 157
Joined: Fri Oct 01, 2004 2:25 pm

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:11 am

i often forget about the russians....although they are still churning out full size planes...and some aren't all that bad, either!

are they about to disappear?
 
atmx2000
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 7:28 am

We keep screaming about an unlevel playing field SO why not stop butting into others systems and adopt what seems to be working. I dare say if it was a new proven aircraft design we would not hesitate but even try and adapt and improve it.

I guarantee you the system will fail for both companies from the perspective of return on investment if both companies receive loans on the same terms, assuming one doesn't make some sort of technological breakthrough that puts it so far ahead of the other or one companies screws up badly. It will encourage the companies to produce new planes and derivatives in response to any new offering from the other company, because they know they won't bear the full price of failure and because they gain access to capital sooner.
The only reason we should consider doing the same is to try to destroy the system.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
 
UAcsOKC
Posts: 106
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 10:00 am

I think the big heated discussions over A vs. B has more to do with emotion than practicality. Both manufacturers offer excellent aircraft that perform well in their markets. However Boeing is a legacy company, and those who know and love classic Boeing airliners, such as me, most likely will take a look at the big A-380 and say "that things ugly." Does this mean anything in the long run? NO The ability and performance are what really matters, not whether I think that the 747-400 is a much prettier aircraft. The point is that we really need both companies to compete to better the industry. If that means subsidizing the American Company (Buy American) that is what we need to do. Just my opinion.
I love the rumble of a 727 takeoff in the morning!
 
GuitrThree
Posts: 1940
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RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 11:27 am

First off, I agree that the topic is correct, it is going to change, however, I don't agree with how.
A isn't going anywhere. Neither is B. However, that being said, I believe instead of one disappearing in the A vs. B fight, I believe what you are going to see is something more of an A vs. B vs. E fight, "E" being Embraer.
Why do I say this? Well, seems to me that both A and B are more focused on big jets. I personally like B's focus on composite planes. Good choice, smarter in my opinion than what A is doing, which is making bigger number PAX planes, the mega jumbo, the "lets see how many people we can fit into a flying machine" theory, while not focusing on a change in building material.
That being said, B is still focusing on larger number planes, as their 717 was and is an overpriced dud.
This is where E comes in. Today's customer, no matter what it is, from cars, to TV's, to flights, want choices and price. More and more, customers want to be able to fly from one destination to another, with one or less connections and a good price, when they want to. Well, who is doing that the best today? Southwest, of course. How do I know that? Their seats are fuller and fuller, and their pockets are deeper and deeper. Who else can say that here in the states? What are they using? One of the smallest "Big Jets" around, the 737. Look at others, Frontier, A 319's/320's. Again, smaller jets, more options, better bottom line.
So.. since A and B aren't looking at what makes today's market tick, basically telling the Airlines "you need to fly as many people on one aircraft possible," you have Embraer quietly coming up. Look at their 170 and 195 series. Modern, good looking, great for flights between cities not named NY, LA, Chicago, or Atlanta. United really seems to like them, as do a lot of the people here who flew them already.
Embraer will be able to deliver a product that will allow them to sell many more, and I mean many, many, more 170 and 195 aircraft than Airbus could do with their 380.
So, you say? Sure, the 170 is a much cheaper product to build and sell than the 380, meaning much less profit per jet. True. But how many parts are 100-200 380's going to need vs. the 1000-3000 170s 10-15 years from now? How many 380's is Delta going to need to fly people from Atlanta, to say, Nashville, Kansas City, Houston, etc? Zero? Correct. They couldn't fill the bottom half of a 380 to those cities. BUT, they probably could get an 80% fill rate 3-5 a day going to these destinations, all on 170-195's series, offering the customer what they want, choices (departure times), while on a wing mounted (more room) engine jet, that is much more fuel efficient, and again, that has gotten surprising good reviews from some of the most critical judges, Airliners.net contributors!! Its like the ERJ on crack! Then again, that might be what you think I'm smoking after this post (I'm NOT!!)

So in my opinion, its A vs. B. vs. E in the future. If not Embraer, someone else who can make good quality 100-130 Pax regional jets.
Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

Cheers





[Edited 2004-12-16 03:42:21]

[Edited 2004-12-16 03:43:10]
As Seen On FlightRadar24! Radar ==> F-KBNA5
 
m404
Posts: 1875
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 4:43 pm

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 11:36 am

M27

Beautifully stated.

Atmx2000

Thanks for addressing the idea. You highlight the problem nicely but part of my view point was the hesitation to develop more products when you have to satisfy the stock markets never ending thirst for immediate gain at the cost of actual value. If your a company that may not have to "pay back" at this rate performance/output and real value might be more easily increased. I'm not an economist by any means but just someone trying to understand why some things work and others do not. I want Boeing to succeed. I believe in competition for the good of the product and I would like to see politics kept out of both but they are intertwined so completely that truth is shrouded.
Less sarcasm and more thought equal better understanding
 
boo25
Posts: 275
Joined: Fri Dec 19, 2003 1:03 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 12:40 pm

Both Airbus and Boeing have some very good products.

It is the intense competition between the two that keeps the industry at the edge, otherwise there would be complacency and overpriced little to chose from.

It was obviously the early 90s that saw Airbus race ahead with the introduction of the A330 and A340 together with a updated A320 and a flourish of derivatives.

Everybody suddenly woke up to Airbus together with good pricing, Boeing howvwer just shrugged its shoulders,never believing anyone could take away its dominance - though it did of course introduce the marvellous 777.

The 757 and 767 were suddenly sadly out of favour, and the 737 was well long overdue for a refresh which of course it now has.

Interesting times ahead indeed, the 7E7 and A350 are no head to head , and Boeing and Airbus have an interesting mix of product to push.
Whether Airbus has the edge with pricing / flightdeck commonality still remains to be seen, as orders are long overdue from some struggling carriers if they are to keep up with the pace...
 
DC10GUY
Posts: 2590
Joined: Fri Feb 18, 2000 5:52 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:03 pm

Boeing is the dinosaur. I am always amazed at the mudd Boeing fans sling at Airbus. "Airbuses are built cheap" "Airbuses won't last" The fact is Airbus builds great airplanes that airlines want to buy. Boeing can't buy Airbus so the have 3 choices, Cry to the government for help, Quit building airliners, or Compete...
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
MERSPACE
Posts: 56
Joined: Fri Mar 12, 2004 11:23 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 1:35 pm

My personal compliments to ALL the posters on this thread ! I have never seen a thread on this forum with NO flaming (maybe a couple of very minor sparks). Well Done !

MERSPACE
 
Planesmart
Posts: 1717
Joined: Sun Dec 05, 2004 3:18 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 3:03 pm

A lot of constructive threads running at present. Are we in Xmas mode, or is this the start of our new years resolutions?

The world has changed enormously in the last 50yrs. Then a flight was an adventure, exciting, an event to write about. Grab a few National Geographics from that era, and read the articles and ads.

Now, for most of the population who can afford to travel, or need to travel for business, flying is a commodity. It's a means to an end. If you are holidaying in Mexico or Spain, it's the unproductive time before you can sit on the beach, shop, or whatever.

And during the same period customer attitudes have changed, so too have the airline execs. With few exceptions, no longer are they just a B, or a McD, or even an A airline.

Because again with a few exceptions, the execs in the airline business are just that - in the airline biz. They could just as easily be in car rentals, petroleum, hospitals, etc.

Which is fortunate in some respects, because aviation is now abt precision, safety, detail, professionalism, consistency, etc. And it's unfortunate, because when you all fly similar tubes, with similar movies & food, something of the passion has left the industry.

People like Branson, thru their personality, try to make the sameness of the product a bit different, to stand out from the crowd.

B has the chance to make the 7e7 standout from the crowd with the sharks tail. Even if it doesn't improve efficiency, even if it doesn't make the plane fly faster, even if it costs a few extra dollars to make, it's different, and recognisably different to the average traveller. And that has value to B and potential airline customers.
 
Carpethead
Posts: 2563
Joined: Mon Aug 02, 2004 8:15 pm

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 6:29 pm

GuitrThree,
You've mentioned good ideas but that model doesn't apply every where in the world. It certainly won't work on transpac flights. Commercial A319/737 will not physically be able to do NRT-JFK unless a vastly efficient engine is installed.


There is the possibility that Embraer, Bombardier, or other third party joining to start offering an aircraft in the upwards of 200 seat range but not anytime soon.

Thanks for everybody making good points. It makes for most enjoyable reading than the usual 'mud' being thrown around.
 
blackknight
Posts: 222
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:40 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 10:51 pm

Another question from my colleges @ work:

How does the airline down turn in the USA play in this role? Could it be actually helping Boeing by giving them time to become more competitive? By the time things get better Boeing will have the 787 out and will have had the chance to get (If they hurry) the 797 out. (The 737 replacement)
BK
 
greaser
Posts: 1040
Joined: Wed Jan 14, 2004 5:55 pm

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Thu Dec 16, 2004 11:34 pm

There is the possibility that Embraer, Bombardier, or other third party joining to start offering an aircraft in the upwards of 200 seat range but not anytime soon.

Tada! Before Boeing or Airbus fails, a 3rd competitor will take part. However, one must realise that building single aisles are not the real challenge, as Richard Aboulafia, senior aerospace analyst with the Teal Group once said that the biggest obstacle, one of incredible difficulty is going into the widebody market.


How does the airline down turn in the USA play in this role? Could it be actually helping Boeing by giving them time to become more competitive?

The airline downturn eats more of Boeing's pie than anything else. High fuel prices, oversupply and extreme competition aren't exactly great for the airlines. Just remember that airlines tend to lose more in the bad times than they gain in the good times. I doubt it helps Boeing at all. We still see a few hundred orders for aircraft despite the downturn, though Boeing's fav customers are the ones in trouble. Besides, any time not taken to improve your stance is more time wasted. About the 737 replacement, i doubt we will see one before the A320 replacement, unless there is significant demand for Boeing to launch before Airbus
Now you're really flying
 
blackknight
Posts: 222
Joined: Sat Dec 11, 2004 4:40 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Fri Dec 17, 2004 12:48 am

Let me clarify the question:

If Airbus can turn out new models more quickly than Boeing and sell them at better prices. The only hope Boeing has is better technology which provides a better over all cost of operation. The process takes Boeing longer than Airbus. The US airlines can not currently afford to purchase replacement aircraft with the exception of NW. If they could IMHO I believe the orders would follow the current trend and be from Airbus. (In the A320, A330 market) The prices are just to good to pass up as has been demonstrated by Boeing airlines going Airbus. As such it's obvious that the price is the key. In this case is not better for Boeing that they can not afford new aircraft until Boeing can get a better line up to market?
BK
 
AZjetgeek
Posts: 229
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 1:53 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Fri Dec 17, 2004 1:32 am

Competition is what drives the marketplace and has played the major role in the development and evolution of the commercial airliner. In the 30's, the principal participants were Boeing and Douglas. Lockheed was also in the mix, but to a much smaller extent as was Beech Aircraft.

Over time, the number of players in the market have changed. Some, such as Douglas, were taken over by other manufacturers. Others, such as Lockheed, decided that the commercial airliner market wasn't in their best interests. Today, there are two major players in the "full sized" commercial airliner market, Boeing and Airbus.

Changes in the commercial aviation industry created a demand for the regional jetliner (RJ). As with the full-sized market, the RJ industry has two major players, Embraer and Bombardier. While most industry experts point to the 1990's as the explosion of the RJ market, the regional jet really got its start in the 60's with the development of the BAC 111 One-Eleven, the Douglas DC-9, and the Boeing 737, along with the Fokker F-28. Funny thing is, no one called those aircraft "RJ"'s back then.

Competition brought these aircraft into the mix. Competition also eliminated some of the players along the way, or forced some into mergers with more powerful entities. I, for one, believe that a certain amount of competition is in the best interests of the free-market economy. It does inspire innovation and improvements. But too much competition can cheapen the product or service. Excessive competition may also foster unethical business practices, including corporate espionage.

IMO, the commercial aircraft industry will remain competitive for a very long time. Don't expect Boeing to disappear. Don't expect Airbus to continue to hold the upper hand. These are billion dollar companies with too much at stake to either give up or back down.
Long live the RJ!
 
User avatar
HAWK21M
Posts: 29867
Joined: Fri Jan 05, 2001 10:05 pm

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Fri Dec 17, 2004 7:11 pm

Competition is what has encouraged these Model Productions.
It would be a sad day if one of these operators were to sink.
The competitor taking its place would need time to tackle these giants.
The closer the competion the better for Aviation.
regds
MEL
I may not win often, but I damn well never lose!!! ;)
 
buckieboy
Posts: 269
Joined: Mon Dec 06, 2004 1:31 am

RE: The End Of An Industry As We Know It

Sat Dec 18, 2004 2:26 am

All,

Like BlackNight I 'lurked' for a while before parting with my 25 bucks.

Unlike, BlackNight, I did not introduce myself. However, read my posts and there will be many clues.....

My point goes back to the very second post, that of JetMechMD80.

He/she (too lazy to check-sorry!) mentions Russia whereas all my bets would be on China if a major non-western aircraft manufacturer would emerge.

Why? According to current Chinese intellectual property law, it is not illegal to strip down a BMW car, copy the individual components, reassemble and sell in China so long as I make no attempt to call it a BMW. Whether, if any hypothetical aircraft would be able to fly out of China, I don't know. However, China is a big place with massive growth (c.f. the west) and (for some), people getting richer who want to travel.

Now, I think that China has in relative terms a poor airline safety record, so I can see a few people questioning my boldness here. Fine. It is the subject of risk assessment that takes myself to China every six weeks or so.

The Chinese people whom I meet are all hard working, intelligent and very willing to learn. If Health, Safety, Environmental and Quality is important, Chinese companies will respond. China may not be able to strip down a T7 and reasemble today; I would be willing to bet 1000 renminbi that it will happen in my lifetime.

Cheers

CTA (Switzerland)">BB
I'm taking orders from bottles of wine

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