richardw
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BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 7:38 pm

Will this be one of the biggest future widebody orders, assuming that the B777 and B747 replacements will be a single order?
 
BA380
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 7:52 pm

do you have information the rest of us are not privy to?
cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
 
777ER
Crew
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 7:53 pm

I thought BA had no plans on ordering more planes
 
planesarecool
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 7:53 pm

Why would they want to get rid of them? Some of the B777's are still young, and i wouldn't say any of the other B777's or B747-400's are "old." I hope they don't replace them at all, until they are long past their sell by date.

-Stephen
 
richardw
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 8:00 pm

I mean a long time in the future, when the aircraft are old and need replacing.
 
BA380
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 8:18 pm

I understand...

You may well be right and this will be certainly be a big competitive battle between A and B....
cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
 
FCKC
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 9:48 pm

Do not think BA will replace their 777s , except the first ones which are not ER.
I think the next wide body order by BA will not come before say 2 years, as the chairman told recently their 747s and 767s (the last ones being unsaleable with RR engines) are not so old and can stay in the fleet a bit longer.
Surely they do not know themselves what to do , what to order and when.
Expect a future order for 777-300ERs , 7E7s (or why not A350s) and A380s or 747ADV if this plane is launched.If not they will be obliged to go for A380s ,not to lose passengers as those will fly with SQ , QF , MH , EK etc......who will operate it.
Anyway a very strong battle in sight in the A vs B run.Interesting.
 
dutchjet
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 9:52 pm

This will not happen for a while - BA is still focused on replacing its narrowbody fleet. The 744s and 772s are still quite young abd the 763s are versatile aircraft for light routes, the 763s are getting an interior upgrade.
 
BA380
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:23 pm

I would have thought BA could fill 388s on the LHR-JFK run and maybe a couple of others, so I would not be surprised if BA ordered a few, but perhaps they think that having a fleet of 7 or 8 would be inefficient. Time will tell!
cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
 
BestWestern
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:36 pm

The A380 run will stay 747/777 as this is a high frequency business route. Pressure to order a dozen or so A380's will come from a need to provide additional capacity on the Kangaroo routes which are not Frequency intensive at all.

The LAX, Indian and Japanese routes are also currently capacity constrained, and do not have high frequency requirements.


You are 100 times more likely to catch a cold on a flight than an average person!
 
tepidhalibut
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:42 pm

>I think the next wide body order by BA will not come before say 2 years,
>as the chairman told recently their 747s and 767s (the last ones being
>unsaleable with RR engines)

Those would be the B767's (with RB211's) that BA sold to QANTAS would they ??
(OK, sales opportunities would be limited, but certainly not unsaleable.)
 
gigneil
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:44 pm

Those were leased to QF, not sold. I believe they were returned.

They pretty much are unsaleable at this point, but you're right, there's the outside chance someone wants them.

N
 
anxebla
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Wed Dec 22, 2004 11:51 pm

According to Airbus-España, IB and BA could making a combined order for the A380
But I think BA is waiting to see how might the 747adv work.
AIRBUS 320 The world's most advanced single-aisle aircraft
 
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RayChuang
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 12:23 am

I think BA will eventually order the A380-800, mostly for routes from LHR to SIN, NRT, HKG, JNB, CPT, LAX and SFO. The LHR-JFK route is more the province of more frequent flights and that will still see an emphasis on 777-200ER's and 747-400's for now.
 
FCKC
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 12:42 am

Tepidhalibut

767s leased to QF are already returned.

Gigneil

If the RAF had chosen the option to buy , then converted the 767s coming from BA , maybe this last one would have already placed an order to replace them.
Now the future of these planes are more than uncertain.I do not see an airline having already a GE powered 767 fleet to buy them.Only an airline already with RR 767s equipped can buy them.How many airlines do you know in this case thru the planet ?Perhaps China Yunnan only.
So i think these 767s will stay in the BA fleet for years to come.

ANXEBLA

First time i hear about a possible combined order for 380s by IB and BA.
Can you give us more details Thanks.
 
JoFMO
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:00 am

What is the status of the current bilateral between UK and India? Is it capacity or frequency based, or both?
If it limits only the frequencies BA could have a good use for of it for DEL, MUM, MAA.
 
sllevin
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:20 am

Don't QF and BA have some form of rev-share on the 'Roo? If so, they may be even slower to add A380's if QF already is adding that capacity -- at some point, how fast can you double the capacity in the market?

Steve
 
MaverickM11
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:24 am

Whatever happened to their on-again off-again plans to acquire first or secondhand 777-300s to replace some of the 747s?
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
anxebla
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:27 am

FCKC,
Last April, an Airbus-Spain director said to "El País" newspaper IB could buy some A-380's together BA. But maybe he was mixing his personal wish with reality.
AIRBUS 320 The world's most advanced single-aisle aircraft
 
richardw
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:28 am

Which aircraft may suit their future 3 class service routes (without first) best? Possibly A346?
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 1:47 am

Whatever happened to their on-again off-again plans to acquire first or secondhand 777-300s to replace some of the 747s?

To actually replace the 747s, they would have to be 773ER. As of the next few years, it is highly unlikely that one will appear on the second-hand market. They would have to be new-builds

Which aircraft may suit their future 3 class service routes (without first) best? Possibly A346?

With a fleet of GE-powered 777s.... probably not. The 773ER would be a much better solution.
 
MaverickM11
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 2:00 am

"To actually replace the 747s, they would have to be 773ER. "

773ERs were never mentioned; BA was looking at regular 773s to replace the 747s on some of the Transatlantic runs. I'm assuming that idea is dead currently.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 2:10 am

773ERs were never mentioned; BA was looking at regular 773s to replace the 747s on some of the Transatlantic runs. I'm assuming that idea is dead currently.

No... around mid-2003 there were serious discussions about a BA order for the 773ER. The deal was to involve off-loading 747-400s to CX while BA would replace them with 773ER, Boeing acting as the middle party. Needless to say, the deal fell through.....
 
gigneil
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 2:35 am

With a fleet of GE-powered 777s.... probably not. The 773ER would be a much better solution.

Not that that matters much... a lot of their 777 fleet is RR powered as well.

But I also agree, there's not a snowball's chance in hell of the 346 at BA.

N
 
MaverickM11
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 2:36 am

I didn't think 773ERs were even around at the time...when was the deal tabled?
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
Btblue
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:24 am

It's very unlikely that BA will order a widebody from Airbus, now or in the next few years.

Once the 747ADV is out they'll jump for it.
146/2/3 737/2/3/4/5/7/8/9 A320 1/2/18/19/21 DC9/40/50 DC10/30 A300/6 A330/2/3 A340/3/6 A380 757/2/3 747/4 767/3/4 787 77
 
gigneil
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:33 am

I didn't think 773ERs were even around at the time...when was the deal tabled?

This was in the middle of 2003, maybe earlier slightly. They were going to sell 744s en-masse to CX and take the 773ER as a replacement.

Once the 747ADV is out they'll jump for it.

I am dubious both of the 747Adv ever being built, or BA buying it if it were.

BA has made it clear that they want to reduce capacity. The 773ER is the perfect avenue for them to do so. Hell, 773As with the Trent 895 would be a great way to reduce cost on North American services.

N
 
JoFMO
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:06 am

Why do they want to shrink capacity? Air travel is growing and so far we doesn't have any lowcost long haul. So will they give the growing numbers to AF/KLM and LH and concentrate themself on high fare business travel?
 
A340600
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:12 am

and i wouldn't say any of the other B777's or B747-400's are "old

Some of the oldest 744s were late 80's, 1989, so 15, if you can call that old. There's a huge age gap between them and their newer brothers, but no visual difference for passengers. The older tend to be a lot louder though, obviously,

Sam Big thumbs up
Despite the name I am a Boeing man through and through!
 
scotron11
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:28 am

I cannot see an A380 for BA, period. If Boeing go ahead with the 747ADV, yes. I think their current fleet is in good shape and they can afford to sit back and take a wait and see attitude. BA seem to be more concentrated on reducing debt and shoring up their balance sheet than contemplating "shiny" new aircraft.

But, when the order does materialize, it will be huge!
 
san747
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:59 am

Don't chew me up for this, but I remember reading somewhere (probably on this forum) that BA wants to double capacity at LHR to 36 million pax/year by increasing the fleet by only 12 aircraft... I know I saw that somewhere, I just can't remember where. But anyway, to double your capacity at an airport with only 12 more aircraft with an airline of BA's size would take an aircraft of considerable size (A380) and some scheduling adjustments (moving all widebody flights to LHR).
Scotty doesn't know...
 
JoFMO
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 7:04 am

@Scotron:

Has BA significantly more depts that LH and AF/KLM? And if yes, why that?
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 7:15 am

How many airlines do you know in this case thru the planet ?Perhaps China Yunnan only.

...which has since been absorbed into MU, whom has shifted toward Airbus as of late. Doubt you'd see much progress there.






Hell, 773As with the Trent 895 would be a great way to reduce cost on North American services

Limited potential and restricts fleet flexibility.

Sure they could use them effectively to places like Dubai, Boston, New York, DC, and possibly S. Asia.... but they'd probably soon as rather have a plane they could fly to California and turn around for E.Asia if need be.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
DfwRevolution
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 7:27 am

Sure they could use them effectively to places like Dubai, Boston, New York, DC, and possibly S. Asia.... but they'd probably soon as rather have a plane they could fly to California and turn around for E.Asia if need be.

Can a 773A not make LHR-LAX (4,700nm) or LHR-HKG (5,200nm) both directions with a reasonable cargo? If just a tad more range (or Aviation Parterns winglets) were added, it would seem a much more attractive solution, given the 773A's lighter weight....
 
scotron11
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 8:09 am

I wouldn't say BA has more debt than AF/KLM or LH, but BA is a relatively conservative airline and right now their priority is to reduce their current debt of approx £3.5Billion ($6.8Billion). I think they are preparing themselves for some major consolidation within the EU, and they want to be in a good position to take advantage of any "opportunities" that arise.

BA operated their 747-100s for over 20years before replacing them. So with a proposed EIS of 2010 for the 747ADV, I think there is a strong possibility of them ordering it.

Actually, if you compare BAs debt load to some carriers, their position is somewhat "prudish"!
 
MaverickM11
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 8:17 am

"Now the future of these planes are more than uncertain.I do not see an airline having already a GE powered 767 fleet to buy them."

QANTAS took some on.

"...which has since been absorbed into MU, whom has shifted toward Airbus as of late. Doubt you'd see much progress there."

I don't know if I'd call MU's (or any Chinese major for that matter) very rational and methodical fleet planning purchase of Airbus products a "shift" so much as a "we don't have many French planes yet--why don't we get one of each" program.
E pur si muove -Galileo
 
bigb
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 8:27 am

Can a 773A not make LHR-LAX (4,700nm) or LHR-HKG (5,200nm) both directions with a reasonable cargo?

Don't forget to factor in headwinds. With head winds factored in, I don't think a 773A can make it.
ETSN Baber, USN
 
GDB
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 8:38 am

BA are not ordering anything, and they won't until they replace 767's from around 2010, so either A350/7E7 in that case.

Apart from the fleet being relatively young, BA have debt to clear, remember no chance of a Alitalia style rescue if things got bad (as they did post Sep 11th), no chapter 11, no loan guarantees, no extra security measures like the cockpit doors being paid for them.
 
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FlyCaledonian
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 10:45 am

7 BA 767-336s remain with QF. QF also operate 21 RR RB211-524 powered 747-438s, the same engine as on the ex-BA 767s, hence why QF was prepared to take them alongside their GE powered examples.

The issue with the BA 767s is that they are RR powered - 31 were bulit with RR powerplants, 21 of which are with BA, 7 with QF and 3 with MU. The opportunities for them are limited because other 767 operaters use GE or PW powered examples. That is why the RAF Tanker deal was so attractive to BA, in that it removed an aircraft with low resale value (due to RR engines) from the fleet. BA will proabably operate these for many more years, 2010 at least been an oft repeated figure on here.

BA's 747-100s saw up to 29 years service with BA, so while the oldest 747-436s are 15 years old they could be considered to have reached their mid-life stage.

Priority for fleet replacement are more likely to be the 737s, 757s and CFM powered A320s, of which G-BUSB is actually the oldest aircraft in the BA fleet.
Let's Go British Caledonian!
 
BlueSky1976
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 10:58 am

BA widebody replacement... it could go like this:

- 12 A380-800 - for Kangaroo Route/to directly compete with Virgin,
- 20 747-500 - a.k.a. Advanced747, for direct 747-400 replacement...

...or like that:

- 12 747-500 - for Kangaroo Route/direct 747-400 replacement where needed
- 30 777-300ER - for 747-400 replacement for routes where a 450 seat airplane is not necessarily needed, but BA could use a bigger cargo capacity.

IMHO both scenarios are realistic. If BA opts for 747-500 instead of A380-800 it might fall back on capacity and revenues in comparison to its competitors, especially on profitable Kangaroo Route. Both Virgin and Singapore will fly A380 on it, and you could add Emirates, Thai and Malaysian to that mix, too.
POLAND IS UNDER DICTATORSHIP. PLEASE SUPPORT COMMITTEE FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACY, K.O.D.
 
aussie747
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:46 pm

"Those were leased to QF, not sold. I believe they were returned."


QF still have the BA leased 767's and are registered / named as follows, and there seems every indication that QF may buy them or extend their leases from BA.


Boeing 767-336ER
VH-ZXA Jervis Bay
VH-ZXB Bourke
VH-ZXC Stanwell Park
VH-ZXD Port Campbell
VH-ZXE Mornington
VH-ZXF St Helens
VH-ZXG Karratha
 
BA380
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Thu Dec 23, 2004 6:47 pm

if VS wanna go with the 388 to Oz, then why have they launched the route with a 346 rather than a 744 at present? Just wondered.
cabin crew: doors to automatic and cross-check...
 
rtfm
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RE: BA Widebody Replacement Order..

Fri Dec 24, 2004 2:28 am

BA have a lot of debt because that's how they funded the 777 and A319/320/321 fleet purchase. Reducing it is still a big priority for BA.

I don't see any L/H orders from BA for at least 2 years. As people have already pointed out, the 744 and 772 fleet are still relatively young and the 767s are just about to get a major interior upgrade.

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