scotron11
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USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:32 pm

Interesting article in FT regarding who should be chosen on the above routes. Apparently, the DOT will pick the winner (or winners) next month.

DL forecasts attracting 165,000 pax a year on their ATL-China proposal. Number one backer is Coca-Cola, as China is their 5th largest market.

AA has the support of 26 senators, 78 representatives, 24 mayors and 38 airports. DL & CO have submitted email-freezing blockbuster applications, sending at least 10,000 employee letters.

AA is offering ORD-PVG, which they lost to UAL in 1998, although UAL did not start the route until October 2004.

Will be interesting to see which one "wins"!
 
MAH4546
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 3:57 pm

My money is on AA getting seven slots for 2005 and CO getting seven for 2006.
a.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:00 pm

Then again, CO plans to like New York with a nonstop and DL the same with the entire South.... ORD already has nonstops to both.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
ual777contrail
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:03 pm

AA seems the likely candidate. I don't care really who gets it, because neither of them can compete with UAL/NWA.

DL/AA/CO? Will be hard to compete with the big two.
 
scotron11
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:09 pm

Article does say NWA gave up their DTW service as they were losing money, although AA are saying they are in it for the long-haul (no pun intended), and think in 5-10 years the market will be booming.
 
MAH4546
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:29 pm

Then again, CO plans to like New York with a nonstop and DL the same with the entire South.... ORD already has nonstops to both.

Yes, that is true. Though what is also true is that ORD-PVG still provides more connecting oppurtunities and quicker travel times for more travelers than would EWR-PVG/PEK and ATL-PEK and much welcomed compietition. AA has also shown the most long-term interest and appears to have the most political support.

As well, New York City also already has non-stops to China (JFK-PEK on Air China).
a.
 
DC10GUY
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 4:56 pm

Well China is the land of opportunity ...
Next time try the old "dirty Sanchez" She'll love it !!!
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 5:26 pm

AA has also shown the most long-term interest

Have they? Remember DL gunning for China in the days of its PDX hub... in addition to their well-known slugfest with AA, where neither succeded.



As well, New York City also already has non-stops to China (JFK-PEK on Air China).

...they no longer stop in SFO? (thought that ended in '98, not sure if they did it again when they resumed) If so, cool.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
Lu
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 7:02 pm

For political reason, the AA will win I am wondering.

Lu
 
NumberTwelve
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 7:21 pm

So what's about flights from Chinese carriers to the U.S. ? What's market share between US and Chinese carrier?
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ord
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 11:49 pm

"Though what is also true is that ORD-PVG still provides more connecting oppurtunities and quicker travel times for more travelers than would EWR-PVG/PEK and ATL-PEK..."

I can't see how AA can provide more connecting opportunities at ORD than Delta can at Atlanta. Delta's Atlanta hub is the largest in the world and surely would offer more connections. And although ORD-PVG does offer quicker travel times for more travelers, it already is served by a U.S. carrier. So people who want to fly via ORD already have that option. Although I'm sure AA would offer a fine service, my votes would go for Delta and Continental simply because I think it is best to have has many gateways served by U.S. carriers as possible and to benefit the maxiumum number of people who right now do not have a one-stop option to China.
 
burnsie28
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 11:52 pm

I didnt see anywhere that they HAD to give it to a new airline, for all we know, the routes could continue to go to UA/NW.

Although I dont care who gets in, as they wont be able to nearly compete with UA/NW, I would suspect that DL has the greater chance, being there is already service to New York and Chicago, ATL doesnt etc.
 
blackknight
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Thu Dec 23, 2004 11:54 pm

I think the 7E7/A350 introduction will change this. Delta if and when they can buy will be able to fly to china from any hub and have the route support. PAX was at the end of a hub system for Delta. SLC could funnel from the west and CVG, and ATL from the East. CRJ pulling from everywhere in between.
BK
 
JoFMO
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:14 am

Nobody wants to go via ATL to China. The whole north eastern corridor has no US airline to China, and for them ATL is totally out of the way, so they will have to keep going through ORD. Tell me who wants to go from WAS, NYC or BOS to China via ATL?
So if advantages for american consumers make any point, the slots can only go to CO for both flights. If some more aspects of competition will be taken onto account, AA should get one slot and the other CO.

If DL gets any slot I will loose my believe in customer care of DOT.
 
ord
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:21 am

"Nobody wants to go via ATL to China. The whole north eastern corridor has no US airline to China, and for them ATL is totally out of the way, so they will have to keep going through ORD. Tell me who wants to go from WAS, NYC or BOS to China via ATL?"

There is a huge population of people who, when flying to China, would love to go via ATL - it would make a lot of sense. The whole Southeast is very populated and one of the fastest growing areas of the country, places like the Carolinas, Florida, etc. Although I also agree that the New York area would benefit, and that's why I feel Delta and Continental should get slots. There is no way Continental gets them all.
 
FoxBravo
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:40 am

There is a huge population of people who, when flying to China, would love to go via ATL

Really? Who? Sure, a nonstop from ATL would theoretically open quicker connections from lots of places, but that begs the question: how many of those places NEED quicker connections to China? Where is the demand? The large Chinese populations of Mississippi and Alabama? Or the vast business traffic from the Florida panhandle? To me, it's the same problem Delta faced with its PDX-Asia flights. They had neither a sufficient O&D base in Oregon, nor any connecting opportunities beyond their Asian destination. And besides, what's stopping Southeast travelers from connecting via ORD? There's no real difference in overall flight time anyway.

CO's proposed flights from EWR would add much-needed nonstop service from the New York area, which has not only a huge Chinese population but also a huge amount of business traffic bound for China. Add connections from the Northeast (DCA, BOS, etc.) and the rest of the East Coast all the way down to Florida, and I'd have to say that this flight would benefit more people who actually travel to China, which in the end is what really matters. Yes, Air China already has a nonstop to PEK, but it only operates four days a week, and in all honesty CA's service standards--though vastly improved from yesteryear--still aren't sufficient to keep most business travelers from choosing connections with UA, NW, JL, NH, etc.

As for ORD, as much as I would love to see AA expand its presence in Asia, it would be absurd to duplicate UA's existing flights, as very few cities would really gain any improvement in service (except AAdvantage fans I suppose).

I'll admit that I am a bit biased towards the hometown airline here, but even so, when I look at the reality of the situation I have to agree with JoFMO.
Common sense is not so common. -Voltaire
 
blackknight
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 12:57 am

Guys I think we are missing the point if the market changes to more of a point to point system there will not be large amounts of people moving in the same path. We are so used to the hub and spoke system we can not think out side the box. Are there enough people within 600 miles of Atlanta needing to go to China. What is enough? The 7E7/A350 is 200-300 people per flight. Think business, and all travel. I think I could find at least 200-300 people a day. Stop thinking hub and spoke and think of where do the start from and where to they need to go like the WN system.
BK
 
blackknight
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 1:17 am

There are rumors of a order for 90 7E7 on another thread.
http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1872585/

Seems like they will be able to go from China to where ever they need to. How many airports in china can handle the 7E7? With China being the next aviation frontier will any say no to allowing them additional slots?
BK
 
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jfklganyc
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 2:40 am

I am almost tempted to start another thread with what I'm about to say--but DL really screwed this one up!

I absolutely agree with what was said above--what demand warrents a nonstop from the southeast to China?

"The large Chinese populations of Mississippi and Alabama? " One of the best lines I have ever seen on a forum.

If I was a betting man, I'd say there are more Chinese people in Queens then in the entire southeastern part of the country put together.

CO proposal has good merit--the problem is, it really is from the wrong airport. You have to give credit to their hub and large O&D market they have at EWR, however this flight will be filled with immigrants and business people.

The business people can go either way (EWR or JFK), the Chinese immigrant base (as my buddy STT757 always points out) is in Queens. That's why CO won't win these slots right now.

As for DL--they had the JFK base staring them right in the face. Bad move. Very bad move to start this flight from ATL. They tried to get an ATL-JFK-China flight going years ago but couldn't get the slots because they went to a cargo carrier. That was a much smarter proposal for DL and should have been copied this time around.

So the lesser of three bad choices--AA at ORD. Even though ORD has the service, it provides good connections for all. CO's proposal is weak because of the airport choice and DL has just lost their minds with ATL.

My two cents.

PJ
 
scotron11
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 2:56 am

At the risk of being slammed, I would give it to AA also. Screw UA. They had the ORD-PVG authority since 1998 and only started serving it in October this year. Why? Well, probably because they knew they would lose it if they didn't.
 
AADC10
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:29 am

I doubt that the airlines care where Chinese immigrants live. They want to be able to connect businesses that have travel to China. That would suggest New York. However, since PVG closes for international flights around 10:00 PM a flight from the Eastern time zone would have to depart no later than 11:00 AM, so flights west of the Central time zone would have difficulty connecting, which hurts ATL. If you love Delta and want to fly LAX-ATL-PVG, it is not going to work unless you stay overnight. From a practical standpoint, CO's EWR flight makes the most sense, since it would connect the two business centers of their respective nations.

That said, it probably depends on who has the most lobbying clout. Most of the legacy airlines were formed around the mail contract, which was handed out illegally in the 1920s. When the contract was contested, it was rebid and the incumbents were not allowed to apply. To get around this, the airlines reincorporated, changing their names slightly (American Airways became American Airlines) and bid and won the contracts again.

The airline with the most lobbying clout is probably AA. They are the largest airlines, they are based in the President's home state and they have a hub near the district of the Speaker of the House and this administration loves big business.
 
JoFMO
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:34 am

Is it such a problem for Queensanians to go to EWR or is it once again a mental thing for them because it is in NJ?
 
Cory6188
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:37 am

they are based in the President's home state

AADC10, a minor note:

CO is also based in the President's state. Although the people in Dallas might not want to have anything to do with Houston, both cities are still in Texas.
 
B2443
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:39 am

I thought this time around it'd be only between AA and CO as the agreement allows one NEW pax carrier (i.e. not UA nor NW) to start up new service to China in 2005. DL did not even apply for 2005 but did for 2006, when the agreement allows another NEW pax carrier to enter US-China service. Maybe in 2006, there will enough demand from China to Florida. I don't care who gets it, it'll help promote business and cultural exchanges.

On the other hand CA, MU and CZ have not used up their capacity yet. They need to revamp there business class product drastically to attract money spending business travellers. It just seems they are still focusing on pax quantity while ignoring big spenders..
 
FoxBravo
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:39 am

The business people can go either way (EWR or JFK), the Chinese immigrant base (as my buddy STT757 always points out) is in Queens. That's why CO won't win these slots right now.

I don't know...I'm not sure the DOT thinks things through that far. EWR isn't such a long drive from Queens, and I'm pretty sure the average person from Flushing would much rather have a slightly longer car/train ride to the airport than have to connect in ORD, SFO, NRT, etc. (or, worse, ATL!).

Agree that DL should have stuck with its original proposal of ATL-JFK-PEK, though. That would have made for a stronger application, IMHO. Then again, who knows--they might have enough of a political lobby from Georgia that they'll win it anyway. Stranger things have happened!

One other point in Continental's favor, though: CO has already demonstrated a commitment to the China market with its EWR-HKG nonstop for several years now, in addition to its NRT flights. DL, on the other hand, has had a steadily shrinking presence in Asia, to the extent that they're down to a single ATL-NRT route. AA is a bit better, and is continuing to add flights to Asia (the codeshares with JL and CX help, too), but I still say it would be a shame to duplicate UA's existing ORD-China service. Come on, DOT, spread the love!  Smile
Common sense is not so common. -Voltaire
 
flyguy1
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 5:19 am

FYI: CA JFK-PEK service, will become daily this summer.
727, L1011, MD80, A300, 777-200, 737-300, 737-700, 747-400, 757-200, 737-800, A320. E190, E135, 767-200, CRJ9
 
klwright69
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 5:27 am

FoxBravo, I couldn't have said it better myself.

I think it is ludicrous to think the DOT will really be thinking about all those inconvenienced Chinese people having a long drive to EWR from Queens, and therefore turn down CO's application for that reason. That was hysterical.

Although I am not in their heads, I believe the DOT will focus on the BIG picture in terms of convenience and competitiveness, and what will serve the larger interests of the most people.
 
JoFMO
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 6:19 am

@Klwright:

If your last paragraph is true, only CO can win!
 
FlyPNS1
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 6:57 am

CO proposal has good merit--the problem is, it really is from the wrong airport. You have to give credit to their hub and large O&D market they have at EWR, however this flight will be filled with immigrants and business people.

The business people can go either way (EWR or JFK), the Chinese immigrant base (as my buddy STT757 always points out) is in Queens. That's why CO won't win these slots right now.


This doesn't make any sense. In one paragraph you say the flight will be filled with immigrants and business people. Then, in the next paragraph you say CO won't win the award because the immigrant population is in Queens. Which is it?

Your overall analysis is terribly flawed largely because you are putting way too much stock in the immigrant population (a common problem on this board). I've never understood why people on this board are so obsessed with immigrant populations. Most immigrants don't travel back to the home country that often (maybe once a year).

The primary driver behind this decision will be business traffic and cargo connectivity. Keep in mind, that cargo is a far bigger business to China than passenger service.

With that said, my guess is as follow:

2005 - Continental - serves the business market well and provides good connectivity in the Northeast/East Coast

2006 - Another Cargo Carrier - Unlike 2005, the DOT is allowed to select an additional cargo carrier in 2006. Cargo volume vastly exceeds passenger volume and so I wouldn't be surprised if they favor a cargo carrier

2008 (not currently being bid on) - either AA or DL, but both have deficiencies in their awards

 
wdleiser
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 8:13 am

If you ask me UAL/AA have more destinations and connections at KORD than DAL at KATL.

Thats just my 2 cents though.
 
klwright69
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 1:00 pm

FlyPNS1 gives another good analysis. People continue to believe local ethnic populations are the primary driver of international route expansion. "Obsession" is the perfect term.

When I spoke of convenience, competitiveness, serving the most people, and the big picture, I also meant cargo as well as passenger considerations.

 
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STT757
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 2:14 pm

"CO proposal has good merit--the problem is, it really is from the wrong airport. You have to give credit to their hub and large O&D market they have at EWR, however this flight will be filled with immigrants and business people.

The business people can go either way (EWR or JFK), the Chinese immigrant base (as my buddy STT757 always points out) is in Queens. That's why CO won't win these slots right now."

Dude, I think you have lost all of us with that one..

CO has the strongest proposal/application for service, they are offering nonstop service from the largest US market where there is no other US competition. CO has also demonstrated a strong comitment to International routes , and particulary in Asia.

Im not going to play Jfklganyc games but I will say this..

AA could have selected JFK as their gateway to China in their application, yet they choose Chicago which is a smaller market and also faces direct competition from an existing US carrier on the route. DL could have applied for China routes from JFK, yet they went with Atlanta which is a much smaller market than either NY or Chicago.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
ramerinianair
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 2:36 pm

When are they going to say who wins????
Also, UA and AA are really the only ones who have immediate access to a/c. UA has the 747s and 777 stored in the dessert and AA can clear up some room with their massive fleet of 777s for a flight to China. DL has a very limited # of 777s and CO has their widebodies stretched really thin.(I know they have the option but will they be able to get the a/c in time for spring 2005?) NW can probably forgo retitiring one of their DC-10s or older 747s for this flight . . . unless they plan using a DC-9! lmao!!!
SR
W N = my Worst Nightmare!!!!!
 
The777Man
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:20 pm

My guess is CO for 2005 and DL for 2006; AA possible in 2006.

The777Man
Boeing 777s flown: UA, TG, KE, BA, CX, NH, JD, JL, CZ, SQ, EK, NG, CO, AF, SV, KU, DL, AA, MH, OZ, CA, MS, SU, LY, RG, PE, AZ, KL, VN, PK, EY, NZ, AM, BR, AC, DT, UU, OS, AI, 9W, KQ, QR, VA, JJ, ET, TK, PR, BG, T5, CI, MU and LX.. Further to fly.. LH 777
 
COSPN
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 4:40 pm

One other point in Continental's favor, though: CO has already demonstrated a commitment to the China market with its EWR-HKG nonstop for several years now, in addition to its NRT flights. DL, on the other hand, has had a steadily shrinking presence in Asia, to the extent that they're down to a single ATL-NRT route. AA is a bit better, and is continuing to add flights to Asia (the codeshares with JL and CX help, too), but I still say it would be a shame to duplicate UA's existing ORD-China service. Come on, DOT, spread the love!

Yea Didn't DL Pull out of SEL HKG BKK TPE many Years ago...from LAX then PDX.. CO seems to be more serious about not pulling out ...or Just serving Asia during the good times that should count for something ???




 
panamair
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RE: USA-China: Who Will Win?

Fri Dec 24, 2004 6:26 pm

Forgetting cargo carriers for the moment, on the pax. side, CO stands the best chance for 2005 (remember AA and CO are competing for 2005 while DL and CO are competing for 2006) because of the NYC market for the reasons mentioned above.

As to the point about who is going to fly from ATL to China, how in the world do you think DL has made ATL-NRT work with 85-90% load factors year-round? Do you really think that there are that many Japanese in Mississippi, Alabama, or North or South Carolina? China is (will be) a much larger market and the Chinese are just about everywhere these days..as long as there is a buck to be made, they'll spread their wings....With the number of connection opportunities at ATL, I wouldn't count DL out for 2006.

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