dcbat2072
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2004 10:24 pm

Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 12:57 am

If USAirways goes out what does that mean for Reagan National? Will the traffic levels drastically be cut or will the other airlines take up the slots? How fast will this happen you think? Will traffic levels be down for a long time at DCA after USAirways goes out, or will it be short term or not at all? How long a time period?
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 1:02 am

I think you'll find no shortage of airlines ready to pick up where US left off.

DL would possibly be interested, and CO showed interest during the whole DC Air thing.

N
 
ANCFlyer
Posts: 21391
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:51 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 1:31 am

I thnik we'll see increases in frequencies from AA, CO and DL. DL might try to bolster their Shuttle operations. Some smaller carriers would likely get slots also.

I don't think UA would try to increase frequencies there since they hub at IAD. Further, they really only fly from DCA-ORD - and ORD is still and will remain a congested cluster until they get the place rebuilt.

Any possibility, anyone think, that WN might grab a gate or two at DCA? How about B6??
FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
srbmod
Posts: 15446
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 1:48 am

Airlines will be beating down the door for more slots @ DCA. Someone's going to start running a DCA-LGA/DCA-BOS/BOS-LGA shuttle service, but the question is who? Unless somebody snaps up the US Airways Shuttle (An asset US has been peddling for sometime now.) in the next few months, Delta Shuttle will have a virtual monopoly on DCA-LGA and LGA-BOS route (American Eagle's service is not of the same caliber of DL and US Shuttle service), and DL Shuttle has not operated DCA-BOS in several years, but if US goes under (Shuttle included), DL would probably return the Shuttle 738s back into service within days and send those OH CRJs elsewhere (I'm guessing they'd try to get more DCA slots to cities that would lose US Airways Express service). As for who might step in and offer a NE Shuttle to replace US Airways Shuttle:

Continental: The US Airways Shuttle terminal @ LGA is owned by CO, who leases it to US Airways, so they'd already have some physical location @ LGA in which to operate a Continental Shuttle operation. But CO, like any other potential NE Shuttle operator would need to secure additional gate space @ BOS and DCA for such a service. Does CO have any a/c that they could throw onto the routes? Since CO is a 737 operator, they could quickly acquire a number of ex-UA and F9 733s and UA 735s for such an undertaking.

JetBlue: Since the quality of their service is on par with the current Shuttle operators, they wouldn't have to upgrade their service levels. The problem would be where to get additional A320s for such an undertaking. US's A320s are of a different engine type, so I doubt B6 would take on a small number of a/c with a different engine type. While B6 does operate flights out of BOS and LGA, they don't currently operate out of DCA, this may be advantageous if they get into the fight for any DCA slots.

AirTran: With the failure of the TZ deal for their MDW assets, FL will be looking for ways to boost their marketshare in other markets. I can see them entering the Shuttle market as they could really change the face of the NE Shuttle. The fares on the Shuttle routes are rather high, so I could see an LCC come in and shake things up a bit. How many fliers on these Shuttle flights actually watch the IFE onboard. FL could just expedite installing XM on a/c to be dedicated to a Shuttle service so there can be some form of IFE onboard. I'm sure FL could get some more 717s quickly, especially if there are any 717s looking for a new operator.

American: With AE already involved in RJ service on the routes, they already have a built-in customer base. And had the UA/US/AA deal gone through, they would have ended up operating half of the flights on the routes, with UA doing the other half. But do they have additional a/c that they can commit to the routes?

United: United needs to get their house in order before committing to any new projects on a large scale.

Northwest: NW has been looking to improve their position in the NE, and this would be a good way to do it. Since NW and CO have been partners for a time now, I'm sure CO wouldn't mind leasing the facilties @ LGA currently used by US Airways Shuttle. Are the US A319/320s of the same engine type of NW's? If so, they could also pick up the Shuttle fleet and could start up the service very quickly.
 
ANCFlyer
Posts: 21391
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:51 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 1:54 am

Northwest: NW has been looking to improve their position in the NE, and this would be a good way to do it.

I think NW would marginally increase service to DCA - they would however, likely jump into PHL. PHL is a far better position for NW than DCA thinking domestically and internationally.

How about carriers like F9 and AS. Both have limited service to DCA. Do they want more? Do they need more?
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exFATboy
Posts: 1887
Joined: Thu Jul 17, 2003 11:15 am

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 3:05 am

If the price is right, I could see B6, CO, FL, or AA just taking on the ex-US aircraft for the DCA/LGA/BOS shuttles - the short-term expense of running a new plane type (or engine type, in B6's case) until you could get fleet-compatible a/c would just be the price they'd pay for getting market share at DCA.

I'd think CO would be a better choice than NW for the DCA/LGA/BOS shuttle - NW doesn't have that large of a marketing presence in New York, at least not compared to CO. A CO-branded Shuttle would really appeal to New Jersey passengers who do their leisure flying out of EWR but leave for business travel from Manhattan. CO could also snap up some of US' regional services and perhaps run the passengers through the EWR hub instead of LGA, freeing up slots and terminal space at LGA for new service (or new competitors), and maybe allowing CO and NW to consolidate in the CO-owned US terminal. (and perhaps allow DL to consolidate in their main terminal and give up the Marine Terminal, perhaps to B6?)

Another question - how hard would it be for B6 to re-engine US' A320s? (I honestly have no idea what's involved in such a thing.)

And before anyone says anything, YES, it's depressing to talk about the demise of US, but realistically speaking, it has to be considered...
 
dcbat2072
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2004 10:24 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 12:24 pm

Would there be a huge drop in traffic levels at DCA if USAirways went out---if so, how long would it last before all the slots were filled again?
 
UALFAson
Posts: 772
Joined: Sun Mar 14, 2004 2:41 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 4:54 pm

Sure, there'll be an immediate drop in traffic. US is by far the largest carrier at DCA.

But being the favored airport of politicos, including members of Congress, the gap won't exist for long. My guess? They would grant some sort of emergency lifting of slot requirements and permit a controlled free-for-all while they sorted through the applications. They'd fast track the whole process and permanently re-assign the slots as soon as they could. A month's time maybe?

A lot will depend on who applies for what. For example, how many airlines offer proposals for the LGA/BOS shuttle? Who's gonna want all the small city slots? Etc.

I'm going to say WN gets nothing. Even with US gone, I don't think DCA is big enough to handle the type of high-volume, frequent-flight operation WN would have to run to be successful. Plus, representatives (as in, congresspersons) would be protective of their hometown/state airlines and would see WN as the bad guy. DCA is not about consumer choice.
"We hope you've enjoyed flying with us as much as we've enjoyed taking you for a ride."
 
kkfla737
Posts: 1017
Joined: Sat Oct 09, 2004 2:28 am

RE: Changes At National Airport

Sun Jan 02, 2005 5:31 pm

Northwest: NW has been looking to improve their position in the NE, and this would be a good way to do it.


When EA went under, EA is was the #! carrier at DCA. NW snapped up most of EA's DCA slots and yet puulled the plug on the operation within 2 years. Has NW's outlook changed that much to pursue US slots? I hope so, but I am skeptical.
 
dcbat2072
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2004 10:24 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 6:09 am

Yeah...I agree that the airlines would kill to get slots into DCA. It's a very politicized airport with a lot of power. Being 45 minutes from downtown DC helps a lot! DCA will be fine...hardly a blip will occur during the transition if USAirways goes under...any thoughts???
 
ANCFlyer
Posts: 21391
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:51 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 6:11 am

Being 45 minutes from downtown DC helps a lot

10 minutes by Subway.

10 Minutes by Car - depending on time of day and how many dumbasses crashed on I-395.

FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
dcbat2072
Posts: 153
Joined: Wed Jan 21, 2004 10:24 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 7:58 am

oops...i meant 5 minutes...not 45...hahaha!!!!
 
aa777jr
Posts: 2269
Joined: Tue Feb 17, 2004 12:03 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 8:12 am

AA could do very well there with shuttle service on the east coast and a few more added flights to European destinations and their owned Caribbean zones.

AA777jr
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
deltairlines
Posts: 6878
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 4:47 am

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 8:17 am

One little problem AA777jr - there's a permeter at DCA, and US Airways has no exemptions to this.

As for what I think will happen, I think that NW will add some Midwest service (this would go hand-in-hand with their recent Protect the Heartland strategy), DL and AA (and possibly CO) going for the East Coast routes...DL might be more keen to go for the Southeast, AA and DL will be most likely to compete for the Northeast.

Jeff
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 8:21 am

AA already operates a shuttle from DCA.

You can't operate European flights from DCA.

AA could add some Caribbean flights from DCA to replace the ones US operates, but I'm not sure that it would work for them quite as well as it works for US.

N
 
ANCFlyer
Posts: 21391
Joined: Mon Nov 15, 2004 3:51 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 8:39 am

AA could add some Caribbean flights from DCA to replace the ones US operates, but I'm not sure that it would work for them quite as well as it works for US

That's a certain possibility . . . tie in with AAs MIA and SJU hubs. I thnik it might work better for AA than you might think.

FOR THOSE THAT FOUGHT FOR IT, FREEDOM HAS A FLAVOR THE PROTECTED WILL NEVER KNOW OR UNDERSTAND
 
srbmod
Posts: 15446
Joined: Tue Mar 20, 2001 1:32 pm

RE: Changes At National Airport

Mon Jan 03, 2005 9:18 am

AA already operates a shuttle from DCA.

No, American Eagle operates a shuttle from DCA. As I mentioned in my earlier post, the service is not of the same caliber of the DL and US Shuttles. An ERJ is nothing like an A319/320 or a 733/738.

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