Okay, now I have more time, and since I've been asked by Lars to comment here, I will happily do so.
"I assume the 6 772ER UFO are for Thai and the single 773ER for a leasing company.
Yes and yes. As already mentioned, the UFO 773ER should be ILFC for AF
"EK, They have 9 options on 773ER and appear to be going to exercise some
I was informed a few months ago that EK
was looking to convert their options, as well as place new orders for up to 27 -300ERs. It hasn't happened yet, and I've heard nothing new, so we'll see. Also, as CBoy
will be watching the -200LR progress. They have previously stated that they wanted to order more 777's, but Boeing's price wasn't right. Now that Boeing has made public claims to lowering production costs, it will be interesting to see what happens.
"QF, They have an RFP out but the competition will be fierce!
Indeed. This one could go either way. QF
prefers the 777 on a technical basis, but cost is always going to be the crucial factor. It is interesting, however, that ANZ stated that they chose the 777, not because it cost less, but because it would earn more. . .
"LH Cargo and the 772LRF though decision could be some time away...
As already stated on A.net, LH
Cargo have publically said a decision won't be made until late 2006 or 2007. However, if the economics are right, or the 777F starts selling well, they might move this up.
"Cargolux may order the 772LRF
Been rumored numerous times, however, I haven't seen any movement here.
"AM, This may be via a lessor
Hopefully we'll know more in a month or so, as our local reliable sources tell us a Feb. '06 delivery date.
"China Airlines? A346 rumours so maybe another fierce competition in play
Boeing is clearly going to fight hard for this order. However, it will be difficult to surmount the operational benefit CHI has with A343 and A333s currently in the fleet.
"Also, will the 772LR be exhibited at the Paris Airshow this year?
Despite my initial hesitation that it might not be, I've been told it definitely will, possibly setting some records on its way to the show.
"CX for 777-300ER
I would place this at a 60/40 chance. There are some hurdles Boeing must overcome, but CX
is definitely interested.
"QF for 777-300ER and 777-200LR (hoping....will be fierce)
AM for 777-200ER via ILFC
"QR for 777-200LR
Perhaps, though I'm not holding my breath. A 7E7 seems more likely.
"AI for 777-300 and 777-200LR
moves, it won't be this year. However, I think a 777-200ER/-300ER order is in the cards. Of course, politics will be the deciding factor.
"KU for 777-200LR
Unlikely, though anything's within the realm of possibility, I suppose.
"CA for 777-200ER and possibly 777-300ER
"BR for 777-200F
SQ for 777-200LR
IMO, both a matter of when, not if.
"ILFC/GECAS may order any given set of models, as they're running low, but interest still abounds
These issues will go hand-in-hand. After the leasing buying spree of the mid-/late-'90s, the leasors changed their policy and now only order aicraft they already have a leassee signed up for. Thus, as I've mentioned to Ghost77
's commitment to the 777 will probably not equal a new order from ILFC, as they can cover AM
with current backlog (barely). Thus, if we do see a new leasor order, it means they already have a customer (which is all the better for us enthusiasts).
"...what about HMY-- though I know they've talked about 767 and A330 just as much, at one point they were gung-ho 777?
HMY (now Harmony) needs to get their financials in better shape first. The last I heard, they were struggling, though not critical. IMHO, I think we could see some used birds go here, but nothing new for a while.
"The A343s are on 9-yr leases, so will be around until 2013. All the B773ERs, including those ordered last year, will be delivered by end-07. If anything, some of 'em are a shot at replacing their A332s or B772s.
is looking at the 7E7/A350 to replace the A332s, not the 773ER. The A343s are indeed on 9 year leases. However, that doesn't mean that some 773ER's and A346HGWs won't begin replacing them as they are introduced, which frees the A343s to inaugurate new city pairs. It also doesn't mean that the lease conditions can't be renegotiated. The last I heard, the first aircraft to actual leave EK
service will be the early 772s, which might be converted into SF
's and reintroduced into the EK
Now for the final airlines, a few quick words:
Libyan Arab - likely, assuming politics remain stable. I think we'll probably see an A32X (15-18) and 772ER (3-5) order.
TAAG - an LOI is likely, but anything more is debateable. OTOH, Boeing has proven to responsive lately to African airlines, so we could see a firm order should the money be there.
Hainan - Have talked about acquiring the 777 for sometime. I think 2005 could be the year a firm order is placed, in anticipation of 2008. OTOH, the 7E7 muddies the waters a little bit, and Hainan could take that aircraft as its new flagship instead.
Jet Airways - anything's possible in India. However, I've heard Jet has been talking to Boeing for some time concerning the 777, and it is once again a question of when, not if.
UPS - today's A380 announcement makes things here a little hazy. However, as these two aircraft (777F/A380F) don't serve the same niche, UPS will still be in the market. In fact, I would consider a 777F order now more likely, as UPS surely got a good bargain for the A380 by simply moving A300F deposits on to that aircraft. And since the A300F contract has now been amend, it reduces Airbus' options when they try and launch either a A332F, or A350F.
Okay, now I've got to run.
Honor the warriors, not the war.