jacobin777
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"A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:52 am

Given that he ( Randy Baseler ) is quite high up on the Boeing chain unlike most of the armchair CEO's here (no, it doesn't make him an aviation guru, and he is obviously going to walk the party line for Boeing, but nonetheless), its interesting to note his views of the A380, he does bring up some good comments...

good, thoughtful, meaningful posts and discussions welcome...  Smile

http://www.boeing.com/randy/
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Udo
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:56 am

What else do you expect him to say? Certainly he would never say a postive word about the A380. His job is to act in favour for his company, that's what he gets his money for.

No need at all to start another A vs B discussion. The thread is just as senseless as posting another "hot quotation" from Forgeard...  Wink/being sarcastic


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Udo
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leelaw
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 4:58 am

For once I agree with Udo.
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airbazar
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:28 am

Perfect example of how to twist data to fit your agenda:

"Consider that Airbus says London's Heathrow will use the most A380s during the next two decades. Yet, the 747's share of departures at Heathrow hasn't changed during the past twenty years. Airbus lists Tokyo's two airports and Hong Kong's as major A380 hubs. But at those three airports, the 747 as a percentage of departures is about half of what it was in the 1990s. If large airplanes solve congestion, the 747 departures would have been going up."

The 747 share may not be hugely large but what if you were to combine the 747, A346 and 773's. I bet you the share would increase significantly.

 
backfire
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:39 am

Certainly he would never say a postive word about the A380

Really? Ever been to a briefing where he's spoken? Doesn't sound like it. I've heard him speak very fairly about the aircraft.

It would be ironic if you're speaking without knowing the facts - given that you're practically accusing him of doing the same.
 
Udo
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:39 am

Airbus lists Tokyo's two airports and Hong Kong's as major A380 hubs. But at those three airports, the 747 as a percentage of departures is about half of what it was in the 1990s.

Has Baseler ever heard of the opening of Chek Lap Kok? Only an amateur would compare Kai Tak's traffic to Chek Lap Kok's...of course the percentage of B747s goes down when MORE frequencies are possible at a totally new and large, double runway airport.
And Narita has just got a second runway, but it's still limited. And as far as Heathrow is concerned: it depends on the slots of certain airlines which make an A380 necessary. What does the percentage of B747s in total mean when airlines such as Qantas, Emirates, Virgin or others cannot offer more frequencies? The largest thing they have is the B747-400 - so what, Mr Baseler? Also, he ignores the fact that some airlines do not WANT to go for the B747 - just because the A380 is available soon. Examples are Emirates or Qatar Airways.
Sorry, hat guy acts like a bloody amateur.


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Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
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RayChuang
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:30 pm

There is one reason why HKG will get a fairly good amount of A380 service: the huge number of Hong Kong expartriates (e.g., me for example Big grin ) that live on the US West Coast, and the pretty large demand for flights from the US West Coast back to Hong Kong. That's why SQ (Singapore Airlines) will likely assign the A380 to the SQ 001/002 route as soon as they get enough planes, and it's possible that CX (Cathay Pacific) may do a long-term lease through ILFC or GECAS for about 5-7 A380's to fly between HKG and SFO/LAX by 2010-2011 time frame at latest.  Smile
 
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mariner
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 1:51 pm

But this is just silly. The airlines that have ordered the A380 are, for the most part, the most profitable airlines in the world.

The US majors, who have not ordered the A380, are losing money hand over fist.

The proftiable airlines who have ordered the A380 believe there is still a place for hub flying.

The US majors who are following the Boeing "hubs are dead" line are losing money hand over fist.

So what am I to believe - that the unprofitable US majors have got it right and the profitable airlines have got it wrong?

cheers

mariner
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PVG
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 2:02 pm

I started this yesterday: http://www.airliners.net/discussions/general_aviation/read.main/1913581/

You forget to mention that most of the profitable airlines that have ordered the A380 either enjoy a monopoly or are protected from competition either directly or indirectly by their host governments. I bet the Quantas wouldn't be so gung-ho on the 380 if they had more real competition on the SYD-LAX service.
 
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N328KF
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 2:02 pm

The problem is that some of them have taken the trend towards dehubbing to an extreme by piling on high-CASM RJs.
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BlueSky1976
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 2:07 pm

Kind of funny how the diary starts right before A380 rollout. Boeing does their best to belittle this huge achievement of aviation industry... They went from "nobody will buy it" to "15 year old philosophy"... I wonder what they're going to come up with after there's three hundred of them or so flying around...

As far as "hub and spoke=dead, point-to-poin=the way of the future", Mr. Baseler conveniently fails to notice how one of their biggest customers in the US keeps successfully following - with a few exceptions - hub-and-spoke system, while being relatively constantly profitable. Anybody wanna guess which airline I'm talking about?? *hint*hint*blue tail, golden globe*hint*  Smile

I think for now point-to-point system has its limitations. Small, regional airports for a while will have to rely on their hub connections. What we might see would be a fragmentation of the hub and spoke system - i.e. more smaller, less congested hubs popping up here and there.
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airportugal310
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 2:09 pm

Mariner,

You have some common sense points which I agree with. Think about it for a second.
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kl662
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 5:15 pm

BlueSky: I'd argue that the airline with the blue tail and golden globe in fact bolsters Mr. Baseler's case. Sure, they're spoke-to-spoke domestically, but look at what they're doing internationally to Europe (and, to some extent, Mexico).

Newark may be a hub, but they're not exclusively flying a bunch of large-capacity planes transatlantic hub-to-hub. They've got something like 6 destinations in England/Scotland alone and are serving smaller markets with 757's. Each additional 757 they put across the pond to a DUB or HAM puts a little dent in traffic to LHR and FRA...

Now, I'm not saying that I agree with Mr. Baseler, but I do think he's got some valid points. There are some obvious routes where the A380 will make a lot of sense. However, my opinion is that Airbus is a little optimistic in their estimation of the size of the market.

(p.s. First post!)
 
knoxibus
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 6:38 pm

Same thing here, I do agree on some points, but...

it also represents a very large misjudgment about how most passengers want to travel and how most airlines operate.

That's saying the airlines that bought it got it wrong....don't care if they are government airlines.
No matter what anybody tells you, words and ideas can change the world.
 
Ruscoe
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 6:59 pm

Although I agree that the % of VLA departures will go down, it is a % of an ever increasing market, and for this reason the 380 has a reasonable chance of success.

However I have posted many times before that Airbus should have spent their money on a 320 replacement and a 300 replacemnt. This wold have cost no more, and knocked Boeing off its blocks.

Ruscoe
 
cedarjet
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 8:05 pm

Has this guy ever left the USA? Does he know that there are loads of flights which use the 747, which are not flying between hubs. On flights from Heathrow to Tokyo, Singapore, Jo'burg, Lagos, New York, Rio, Mexico City, Hong Kong, Sydney, Los Angeles etc etc, the flights aren't full of fatties connecting from Madison or Tulsa. This is point to point, and those destinations all need the 747 or bigger. Some Yanks seem to think airline passengers just fly round and round from hub to hub, never getting off. Believe me, in Europe and the rest of the world, we like point to point too. But we need 747s or A380s, cos there's a lot of us. Anyone who thinks the A380 is going to be used to and from hubs is deluded. Ask passengers getting off a 747 flight at Heathrow (or Paris, HK, Jo'Burg, you name it) if their journey involves more than one sector. Of course some will say yes, but the vast majority will say NO. There's always a good fare on Luftwaffe via Frankfurt (or maybe BA via LHR if you're German) but most people want to fly direct, point to point - and they do: on 747s.
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QANTAS077
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:07 pm

well cedarjet where do you see the A380 going? at the moment SQ has it's first A380 down to do the Kangaroo route and not the West Coast of the US as some have stated. most of the worlds airports won't even be able to handle an aircraft this size, it's simply quite unerenomical for alot of existing infrastructure. if that's all the point to point's you have to offer and even then we don't know if all those will eventuate then i don't know that the A380 will do that well. and get this cedarjet, alot of europeans don't want to have to fly from say ATH to LHR to get on an A380 to get to JFK when they can get on an A340 and be there alot quicker!

it'll serve it's purpose on runs like SIN-LHR and SYD-LAX where large numbers of people need to be moved, but it'' be working along side the trusty 747 aswell because carriers like Qantas aren't going to just have 1xA380 a day from Syd-Lax, it'll be a mix of the A380 and the 747.

i spend alot of time at NRT, in recent times the decreasing amount of 747's is very noticeable, long are the days of NW sending every 747 in the fleet to NRT, now we see the new A330 and a few 747's and lots of 757's and the old DC10's, UA sends so many 777's to NRT that you could almost photograph the fleet there, SQ now send's the 777 and the 747.

JAL sends the 747 to US and Europe and now the 777's are on the Europe runs EX Tokyo and Kansai. ANA sends a few 744's to the US and alot more 777's of recent times. JAL will start sending 773ER will operate to Paris in the near future, and this is one of JAL's most lucrative sectors.

Sydney is full of Qantas 747's, a few from SQ, JL,TG, MH and KE, the rest of the international market is dominated by the A340, A330 and the 777. of the airlines that have ordered the A380 how many will definately fly it to a place like Sydney? Qantas will of course, SQ, EK and maybe MH and TG, that's not really moving alot more people considering that SQ will have it configured for only about 460 and 20 crew, it's about 90 seats more than the 744's they send down now. i don't see KE operating an A380 to SYD then leaving it on the ground for 12 hours before it's evening departure, this is what they currently do with the 744.

i believe if the A380 is to be a real success they need to get the Japanese carriers onboard, JL and NH flying around Japan with the A380 configured for 700 people would mean the A380 has truly arrived, the Japanese are among the most widely travelled in the world, yet JL and NH see no need for an aircraft of this size, if one of the biggest markets in the world is leaning towards the 773ER then what does that really say to Airbus if they can't lure this most lucrative of customers.

anyways, for me it's not a matter of A vs B, just a matter of smart business, i don't care what i fly on as long as it gets me ther, but if the A380 isn't going to get me to where i want to go ASAP then i will simply choose the otion that will, and now thats the A345 or the 773ER.

that's just my humble opinion and i'm so wacked out on morphine at the moment that i don't know if i've made sense, but i hope i have.

[Edited 2005-01-20 13:09:20]
 
Rj111
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 10:37 pm

and get this cedarjet, alot of europeans don't want to have to fly from say ATH to LHR to get on an A380 to get to JFK when they can get on an A340 and be there alot quicker!

That's quite a short key route, the A380 was never going to thrive on a short Trans-Atlantic flights. Try flying JFK to Pusan Gangzou Sydney Hiroshima, or BOS, IAD, MIA to HKG, PVG, KUL, SIN You're never going to get a P2P on all of those routes 7e7 or not, there just isn't the demand. You have to rely on a hub and spoke system eventually.

the Japanese are among the most widely travelled in the world, yet JL and NH see no need for an aircraft of this size

If Boeing don't produce the 744adv i'd happily bet the farm on seeing a JL and NH A380.

SQ will have it configured for only about 460 and 20 crew

Try 550.

Enjoy the morphine.
 
odafz
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Thu Jan 20, 2005 11:10 pm

Concerning NH and JL not operating /ordering the A380. Shall I remind you that JAL is using the 747SR with a very high pax configuration and consequently, they might not need the A380 in the near future.
 
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mariner
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 12:49 am

PVG:

No, I didn't forget at all. I don't see how Singapore Airlines enjoys a monopoly or is protected by its goverment, since just about every airline that flies to Asia flies to Singapore.

The point of my post is that it doesn't might what might be, or what people think might be.

What matters is what is. Everything else is an unproven theory.

Boeing and the US airlines can say until they're blue in the face that people want point to point flying and not hubs, but in terms of profit that has yet to be proven.

Of course, there will be more point to point flying. That does not mean that hubs are dead. Continental, for example, is doing a lot of international (UK/Euro) point to point flying - from it's hub at EWR.

Are either UAL or AA going to dismantle ORD?

Or, to remove it from international flying, Southwest is usually claimed as a point to point airline.

So why has Southwest just shelled out a bunch of money to expand their "hub" at MDW?

cheers

mariner

And, just a friendly heads up, the airline is called Qantas, not Quantas.
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VSIVARIES
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:04 am

Face it, Airbus have been busy developing new product while Boing have been pretty much sitting on their hands.
Airbus have stolen the limelight and are already 50% of the way back to break even point for their efforts.
If you were in the man's position what are you supposed to say?

Maybe, "Gee thoughs damn Europeans have really got us on the run now, I'll be honest, apart from the 7E7 I don't have a darned clue where we're going next!".

I'm not trying to fuel an AvB fire but this is just common sense.

BR
Rich
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JoFMO
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:10 am

CO is not flying point ot poitn from EWR. EWR is their HUB to Europe, all routes like EWR-HAM, EWR-OSL are spoke routes.

Boeing claims that people want point-to-point, and the same people who follow Boeing's argumentation usually claim that people want frequency over size.
But if you have the choice between HAM-NRT between 3 weekly 767 and 3 daily A380 HAM-FRA-NRT. What do you think people would prefer?
 
LY4XELD
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 1:43 am

But if you have the choice between HAM-NRT between 3 weekly 767 and 3 daily A380 HAM-FRA-NRT. What do you think people would prefer?

Isn't it the other way around? Wouldn't the logic (a la Boeing) be a choice between 3 weekly A380 flights and 3 daily 767 flights?
That's why we're here.
 
agill
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:06 am

LY4XELD: No it doesn't, in one case it's from HAM, in the other case it's from FRA.
 
baldguy
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:14 am

I wonder what effect the novelty factor of the 380 will have? Will people choose the 380 just because it's the biggest and has loads of new features?
 
daedaeg
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:19 am

Qantas, you've made a very interesting argument. I believe the A380 will be a marginal success at best. what do you believe its future sales potential will be? Did they not have a choice in creating a jumbo jet in order to complete their product line? Or was the A380 a choice of prestige over value?
Everyday you're alive is a good day.
 
OO-VEG
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:23 am

You're right LY4XELD.

The logic of Boeing is more point-to-point flights and more connections. Well the point-to-point thing is what JoFMO tries to underline.

The choice between that 3x weekly HAM flight might be easier, he's got a point in that. But I sure have a lot more choice with the 3x daily HAM-FRA-NRT flight.

Sure I have to change planes, but I can choose out of 21 flights to NRT instead of only 3. That means I can fly on any day I want to, and that's still more favourable then the 3/4 hours extra flight time I loose changing planes at FRA. Suppose the HAM flight only leaves on Monday-Wednesday-Friday, and I want to leave on a Saturday..well, I could leave one day early, or wait 2 more days to fly non-stop. Or take a few hours extra flight time and fly on saturdaymorning/afternoon/evening. Whatever time I want to!
 
racko
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:27 am

Ah I see, Airbus got it totally wrong and nobody needs really big aircraft anymore.

So that's why Boeing talks about spending billions on the 747Adv?

And by saying that the A380 is against the wishes of the passengers, he's indirectly also claiming that the airlines ordering it don't care about their passengers. It's probably just me, but bashing the two main candidates for the 7E7-3 seems a bit...uhm...stupid ?
 
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airzim
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:35 am

JL and NH will never buy the A380. They have both stated that they do not want to buy and aircraft that cannot be used for both domestic and international services (similar to the 747SR and international configured 747's today). It is extremely unlikely that the domestic Japanese airports other than NRT and KIX will be able to handle the A380.

Suffice it to say, the A380 is serving one business model, while the 777, A340, A330 and 7E7 servers another. They can coexist, I still don't understand why so much debate.
 
blackknight
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:38 am

IMHO I believe it will be a mix of both, but the key will be on the flexibility to perform both. Also geographical considerations must be made to understand the face of future markets. I think both A and B bet upon the system of their home country and not the over all picture in the world. Take the US which has numerous airports both international and domestic. It covers a vast area serving various markets. Flexibility is key, a plane may have to make a short hop and then an international hop to keep a system functioning. Hub and spoke systems are here to stay because of the support factors involved in keeping an airline flying. Without a hub how many maintenance facilities would you need to keep up with the flight schedules? Counties without the large area and vastly different markets will function best with the hub system only. The key to the analysis is to keep the following in mind:
1- Most countries outside the US understood and had in place security measures prior to 9/11. The current low in the US market is in part due to the costs of catching up to the rest of the world.
2- Is China going to resemble the US system of the UK system?
3- Countries with many international airports will not combine them into 1-4 major airports as seen in the UK.
4- Will ground transportation in the UK and Japan evolve in the next few decades to relieve the air system? If the ground system evolves as we know is will what will the need be for inter-country aviation in the UK and Japan?
5- The amount of premium traffic out of traditional hubs in the US. How much of that is fixed? Could an airline provide a short leg from a traditional international airport to a non-traditional international airport (and then International) to save congestion? (Small plane premium seats (A320/737 sized) to connect to a larger plane in a less crowed airport)
6- With the fact that larger countries air systems demand more flexibility out of an airplane will airlines be able to use 747/A380/A340/777 in this manor?
IMHO The A380 will meet the needs of the UK regardless of opinion. The 7E7 will work in larger countries such as the US and China. The over all picture depends upon airlines that function out of geographically limited areas.
Maybe both A and B have got it 1/2 right. Maybe a true solution would to be able to provide a few large planes on major routes with many flexible planes providing support?
BK
 
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mariner
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 2:50 am

"...a few large planes on major routes with many flexible planes providing support."

Which is almost certainly what it will be. Which is pretty much what we have now.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
milan320
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 3:17 am

I'm curious here then, if Boeing's philosophy is that point-to-point is the way of the future and hub-and-spoke will be dead, then how come they keep on talking about the 747ADV? To me it seems they're contradicting themselves, but that's just the way I see it.
Point-to-point will be successful if enough people will be interested in flying from small airports to far reaching destinations on a daily basis - and assuming no slot-restrictions. But if those planes aren't full on a regular basis, the airlines will pull the service. Now how many people would be flying from say - Saskatoon to LGW on a regular basis? Not many, I don't think.

/Milan320
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TheBigOne
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 3:34 am

"A380 is flying into the headwind of reality"

I guess he forgot to mention the tailwind that is speeding the 747 into extinction!  Crying
Reach for the stars - they are closer than you think!
 
FCKC
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:36 am

The ceasefire is already finished.Another childish A vs B war is opening..........

We saw INTELLIGENT and HONNEST comments just after the A380 show about this plane and the 747 , coming from both AMERICANS and EUROPEANS, and was GREAT.It's finished..................

BOTH manufacturers are in contradiction.

Boeing if they launch their 747ADV , is again their philosophy.
Airbus as they already launched their A350.

In fact both of them are not so sure of the future.
I am sure both will win as geant widebodies such as the A380 and small widebodies such as 7E7/A350 will have a bright future.

Surely the 747ADV is not the right plane for Boeing to counter the A380.
They need a totally new geant widebody reaching the economy and confort of the A380.They can't get both of these facts with a 747ADV.
But don't you think it's already too late for them............even if they decide very quickly to build such a plane , when it will be on the market , already hundreds of A380s will fly , and Airbus will have reached the fatidical 250 frames , making money on this programm and be able to repay public funds.
 
Ken777
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:42 am

The 380 faces a lot of challenges, including Airbus ensuring it exceeds their sales promises. Once that is done there are other issues:

1. Airlines have high, shoulder and low seasons and need to be able to move planes around to maximize revenues in each. A 380 with 100 pax is not going to be very successful in the low season (or mid week) and there needs to be a profitable use for it.

2. Airports (at least in the US) do not have a lot of money for upgrading to handle the 380 and I can see a lot of them raising landing fees (with ticket prices increasing) to recover any investment they make.

3. The 380 needs a stable world in order to be a long term success and airlines are unfortunately adversely impacted by financial downturns as well as terrorists activities.

4. The 380 needs to sell itself to pax by being more comfortable. Airlines seems to understand this by giving all classes more room. Comfort may well be the biggest selling point if you have more room on a 380 than a 747 when flying in the cattle car section.

Only time will tell how successful the 380 is. It has some advantages and it has some challenges.
 
SAS330GOT
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 4:43 am

As stated in this discussion. The A380 is a hub to hub aircraft.
The 7E7 is a point to point aircraft (even though this aircraft can fly around the world)
I live in swedens second largest city GOT our airport have NO regular trans-Atlantic routes. We have some charter routes, but the furthers you get is NCE or maybe somewhere in Spain. If the 7E7 is made to connect cities like mine with ex. MSP.
The only problem I see with this is the pass control and imigrations. This argument can be given for both planes. If you fly a 7E7 GOT - MSP you are going to have a problem in Gothenburg with passport controls and imigrations. While MSP is quite good. Coming to a airport that only flies domestic in the USA, or maybe to Canada, these airports are going to be re built to have a immigration that can hold 200-300 people in one flight.
Flying the A380 you will probably have to stay in line for immigration in ORD as long as if a 7E7 lands in a smaller regional airport where they only have X (x being quite low) number immigration officers while the hub has Y (y being a quite high number).

I myself prefer the idea of hubs as I love stepping of a long haul and the sitting down in the short haul especially flying SAS A330 form ORD to ARN or CPH and then flying a MD-90 or 737 and feeling the leather seats and extra leg room.


 
lehpron
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:04 am

Argument in favor of Airbus, against Boeing: There will be more people flying that ever before and frequency will just pile the airports up with traffic; the only way to combat that is with a larger airplane. Or we could go faster but see no one want to invest in that because it is high-risk and long-term (meaning that differentiating the model would cost much more than the first).

Argument in favor of Boeing, against Airbus: In areas of high traffic, usually due to midranged planes making a whole lot of stops, more frequent long-range aircraft would reduce the traffic.

The only evironment that Boeing/Airbus can have to become successful is their own, non-interfered turf. Boeing can break-even in the West and Airbus can have everything else and break-even.


Look people: The 7E7, IMO is designed for airlines that will use the plane for routes specified; same with A380. Let me say that again, "routes specified"! Sheer number of planes sold does not represent success when considering different markets!

Say I sell more oranges that I grew than someone else who grows sugarcane. Does that mean the the person that grew sugarcane was an idiot to not sell oranges? Well? What are the chances that we are investing to TWO COMPLETELY DIFFERENT MARKETS??





The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
blackknight
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:07 am

In countries where there are only a few International Airports and limited slots yes the A380 will be a welcome solution. The issue is that the US, China and Japan (with the proposed rail system) have many airports that provide International service. Even though these are hubs because of the various airlines that use each one a type of point to point system exists. Does CO fly from the same airports that UA does? Does Delta fly from the same airports NW does? This is what I was trying to say in reply 29.
BK
 
agill
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 5:21 am

Sas330got: GOT woohoo  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
Seriously I don't understand why immigration wouldn't work with 7E7 flights to the US at GOT? I mean it is not more passengers than two 737 or something like that. However I think it would be hard to fill planes even to Detroit or New York, unless the number of departures are very low. But then we are back at the problem presented in Reply 21.
 
Xkorpyoh
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 6:20 am

As traffic grows worldwide, the options are:
1) Offer new nonstop flights from secondary cities that have enough traffic to warrant the service to other major or secondary cities --> 7E7 or A350
ex: GLA-LAX
MEX-NRT
SYD-DFW
CPT-MIA
BOM-BOS

These flights can also offer "mini-hub" benefits by allowing connections to other smaller cities and therefore easying connections in big hubs.

2) Increase the available seats from Hub-to-Hub that will accomodate connecting flights from smaller cities that can't possible have nonstop flights -->A380 or 747ADV (depending of the airline needs, route, frequency,etc.)

...so...both planes have a need and good use for the future. The hubs can't possible die, but the increase of new nonstops from secondary cities is what has been happening since the introduction of the 767ER and later the A330.
The 7E7 will continue this trend. Therefore, it seems that the posibilities of financial success for the 7E7 (& A350) are better than the A380. The A380 will be good for several routes and certain airports, but the 7E7 would be great for many routes, for many airlines and for many airports.
The argument here is about "return on investment" and about who made the right decision for the long term financial success of the companies involved.
In that case, the A380 is more about prestige than long term sucess, while the 7E7 is a wise financial investment for the long term success and grow of Boeing.
The investment of evolving the 747 to the ADV is much less risky than a brand new design like the A380. The 747Adv will have its market as well, but Boeing is not counting on that type of plane for the long term success of the company. The investment is less risky.
 
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mariner
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 6:31 am

If the debate is about return on investment, it is more complex than you state.

The A380 completes the Airbus family in the same way that the 747 completes the Boeing family.

Until the A380, any airline that wanted a jumbo had only one choice. Now they have options.

So it is now possible for an airline - and I'm not saying they will, merely that they can - to stay with Airbus across the full range of aircraft types.

Just as it is possible for an airline to stay with Boeing across the full range of aircraft types.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Udo
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 8:04 am

A 380 with 100 pax is not going to be very successful in the low season (or mid week) and there needs to be a profitable use for it.

Today's B747-400 with only 100 seats would not do any better...


2. Airports (at least in the US) do not have a lot of money for upgrading to handle the 380 and I can see a lot of them raising landing fees (with ticket prices increasing) to recover any investment they make.

But with the A380's higher weight they also earn more than with current types. The upgrades will pay back. In many cases, airport infrastructures have to be renewed anyways.


3. The 380 needs a stable world in order to be a long term success and airlines are unfortunately adversely impacted by financial downturns as well as terrorists activities.

All airlines and all aircraft types need a stable world. With lower seat mile costs than the B747-400, the A380 wouldn't be hit as hard as other types. What happened after 9/11? Frequencies went down in most cases (e.g. LH switched from two daily A340s to one B744 on certain routes).


4. The 380 needs to sell itself to pax by being more comfortable. Airlines seems to understand this by giving all classes more room. Comfort may well be the biggest selling point if you have more room on a 380 than a 747 when flying in the cattle car section.

All classes will benefit. In Economy we can expect more armrests and probably slightly more space...but how many passengers really care about the exact type they fly?


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
chiawei
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 10:01 am

US airline is losing money because of heavy competition brought on by LCC carrier that is eating away the domestic market.

LCC like southwest really do not have a so called HUB. The traditional US airlines are just starting to get away from hub and spoke system. Therefore to conclude that US airlines is losing money right now by following Boeing's belief that hubs are dead is ridiculous.

Traditional US airlines are losing money is because of current hub system, union, higher cost brought on by too much pension, and labor cost. The US domestic market is a great example how more direct flight such as southwest model works while hub and spoke is dead. The most profitable airline in US, southwest is not a hub/spoke carrier.

In addition when did CO maintain profit? CO lost 202 million in Q4 of last year.

To Udo-

Your argument is flawed.

1. A 747-400 operating with 100 pax is about 30% full, while an A380 with 100 pax is less than 20% full. So per passenger carried, A380 will not be as efficient as 747-400 with 100 pax.

2. Logic goes both ways. With bigger payload to fly around, A380 will need to carry more pax to make money. Therefore your break even cost is now higher.

3. Wrong. For example switching from two A340 (carries about 260 pax) to one 744 (350 pax). The available seats went down from 520 to 350, roughtly a 170 seat cut. Let's assume that 744 is filled to the bone and operating a max 350 pax. The A380 in 550 pax configuration is only 64% full. Which means the 20% per seat lower operating cost just went out the door, because the plane is 36% less less full. You have to ask yourself, if LH can replace 2 A340 at 67% full with a A744 at 100% full and make money, or will LH choose to replace 2 67% full A340 with a 64% full A380 ( i don't think A380 will break even at 64% rate). The choice is very clear that 744 wins.

You have to think in relative terms. Demand is not inelastic.
 
M27
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 11:13 am

Its my understanding that until the A380 is in service, the 747-400 and 400ER has the lowest seat mile costs. If larger is the way to go (the A380), Don't you ever wonder why Boeing has gone from producing many 747 airframes/yr
down to essentially just producing freighters now? Why is that? Some will say that the 747 is old and out of date. Maybe so, but still the best seat mile cost in the business if at close to capacity!! Some will say the airlines were all waiting on the A380 and this is probably true in some cases. If it is true, then I ask how many more are still waiting? It would appear to someone who doesn't know(me), that airlines can get better seat mile costs out of aircraft they can fill. For many years,(all except the last three or four) passenger numbers have been on the increase, yet 747 sales have generally decreased and have been replaced by 777, 346 and 330 sales. How is the A380 going to change this? With casinos, spas, shops, gyms, or what? Slot restrictions? (by the way, slot restrictions are incompatible with casinos, spas, shops etc.)

Just wondering!!

Regards
 
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mariner
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Fri Jan 21, 2005 11:21 am

Chiawei:

If Southwest does not have hubs, then what do you call their operation at LAX?

And why have they just paid $100 million for more gates at MDW?

M27:

I guess you haven't read the thread where Emirates says that they may operate up to 100 A380's?

Or this article - they want a bigger A380:

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5744,12000767%255E23349,00.html

They seem to think they can fill them.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Udo
Posts: 4288
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Sat Jan 22, 2005 3:20 am

1. A 747-400 operating with 100 pax is about 30% full, while an A380 with 100 pax is less than 20% full. So per passenger carried, A380 will not be as efficient as 747-400 with 100 pax.

Very true. My intention only was to point out that today’s B744s carriers know well how to use their aircraft in order to avoid loss making loads. In the same way as airlines care about filling the B744, airlines will care about filling the A380.


3. Wrong. For example switching from two A340 (carries about 260 pax) to one 744 (350 pax). The available seats went down from 520 to 350, roughtly a 170 seat cut. Let's assume that 744 is filled to the bone and operating a max 350 pax. The A380 in 550 pax configuration is only 64% full. Which means the 20% per seat lower operating cost just went out the door, because the plane is 36% less less full. You have to ask yourself, if LH can replace 2 A340 at 67% full with a A744 at 100% full and make money, or will LH choose to replace 2 67% full A340 with a 64% full A380 ( i don't think A380 will break even at 64% rate). The choice is very clear that 744 wins.

I see what you are try to tell, but that wasn’t my point. I just used an example to show how airlines reacted after 9/11. Replacing two flights with one, or replacing three with two. Exact seats/loads differ on each route, for any airline.


You have to think in relative terms. Demand is not inelastic.

I WAS thinking in relative terms. I just used some examples.



Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
chiawei
Posts: 924
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2000 9:07 am

RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Sat Jan 22, 2005 3:57 am

To Mariner:

When did Southwest have a true hub system. LAX is not a hub. If LAX is Southwest Hub, than places such as Las Vegas or phoenix would be consider as hub as well.

Unlike traditional hub system. You have huge aircraft such flying between hubs (ex. UA SFO-DEN, SFO-ORD) and with commuter flying into those hubs.

Southwest does not have such feed network. Majority of their flight are point to point.

To Udo-

I am just trying to show that filling A380 on A340/747 route would be difficult esepcially post 9/11. Moreover, A380's 20% so called less operating cost must be taken into relative consideration since it's all tied to load factor.

If the airline can't fill the A380, it won't be able to utilize the earning potential of A380.
 
Planesmart
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Sat Jan 22, 2005 4:20 am

Baseler's comments are.........just that. Entirely predictable from a competitor.

If you look at the B growth projections by region 2003 to 2023, you will see the 747 and A38 are in the same capacity group.

If you deduct A38 orders to-date, and assume the balance would be won equally by the 747ADV and A38, there appears to be no viable market for a 747ADV.

This being the case, why is B still talking about launching one? For answer, return to my first line.
 
N79969
Posts: 6605
Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2002 1:43 am

RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Sat Jan 22, 2005 3:52 pm

Unlike the pugnacious John Leahy, Baesler makes his point in measured words. Both men are fundamentally salesmen whose job is to advocate their respective employers' point of view. Given Leahy's even worse and obnoxious takes, there is really no need for anyone to hold their nose while reading Baesler's remarks.

I think Baesler has a point. (And I am sure he is as well-traveled or perhaps even more well-traveled than that modern day Marco Polo/Ibn Battuta known as Cedarjet) As the CEO of one famous Airbus customer pointed out, no airline has gone out of business for having airplanes that are too small. The opposite is not true. The distinguishing feature of the B747 for many years was the airplanes range. Once airlines could get trans-ocean range out of smaller airplanes, the B747 were re-deployed.

I think everyone recognizes that there is "a market" for A380 size aircraft--meaning if that if it is offered for sale some would buy it as has occurred. But it does not logically follow that it was a wisely spent $16 billion of aircraft R&D. If aircraft development costs were in line with software development costs, then new airplane types could be developed for individual airline customers. Since that is not the reality, gigantic investments in R&D for new airplane types must be carefully considered. Boeing evidently is conservative in this respect. Airbus is apparently not similarly constrained as it can access billions in capital that will be forgiven if their engineers screw up or economists make a bad forecast.

In that regard, I think Boeing yet again is the truly intrepid company. While the A380 is an evolutionary step, the 7E7 promises to revolution airplane technology at no small risk. The engineering challenges to put the 7E7 into regular production will make Boeing and partners pioneers in new areas if they succeed. Also I think the 7E7 project promises to yield new know-how that will be scaleable for both larger and smaller types than the 7E7. I think that will be true to a much lesser extent for the A380. But then again Airbus may add a second story to the A318 and make a fool out of me.


I have not had an opportunity to do so but I also say "congratulations" to Airbus for their truly historical achievement embodied in the A380 project.
 
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mariner
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RE: "A380 Is Flying Into The Headwind Of Reality"

Sun Jan 23, 2005 1:04 am

Chiawei:

Southwest at LAX - or at MDW - is a hub situation. Or PHX. Or PHL. Or BNA.

A true hub situation does not rely on "huge aircraft" flying "between hubs".

Frontier does not have "huge aircraft" nor does it fly "between hubs" because it only has one hub - Denver. But I would not call their flights from/to their one hub "commuter flights."

So with Southwest. Many of their flights feed into their central connecting points - aka "hubs". The fact that they have several hubs instead of a couple of big ones does not change the fact that they are hubs.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta

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