clipperhawaii
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Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:37 am

Joe Sutter is recognized as the main man behind the 747. I think what he has to say is right on target. Including the "subsidies" question.

"The big question is, what kind of an airplane is it? Will it satisfy the customers? That's the 64-million-dollar question, and only time will tell."


http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/207467_air12.html?source=rss
"You Can't Beat The Experience"
 
NIKV69
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:59 am

Very interesting. I think what may be the downfall of the A380 is that it may not be profitable as a cargo plane and that there is only a few carriers such as Emirates, Singapore or Cathy Pacific that can use it. Time will tell.
Hey that guy with the private jet can bail us out! Why? HE CAN AFFORD IT!
 
keesje
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:10 am


Yet to see any Boeing employee not saying "A380 is great but ..."

"Twenty years from now," Sutter said last week," it could be that the 747 is the airplane that's left and the A380 has also disappeared."

Spoken like a very proud father.


The last words say it all...


"Never mistake motion for action." Ernest Hemingway
 
kaitak
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:26 am

Now that's the kind of legacy I'd like to leave - at 84, to be able to look back on a career like that.

BUT, to sidestep the whole subsidy issue, the real greatness of the 747 was the risk involved. I know that involves costs such as railways and factories, the aviation environment in the mid to late 60s is much different to what it is today. The aircraft was around twice the size of anything else in service and load factors were generally poor.

Today, the A380 is only 20-25% bigger than the 747 and load factors are far higher than they are today. Air traffic will grow and demand will grow; airport capacity will not keep pace.

With all due respect to Boeing and Sutter, the 747 is close to its end and with much regret, I don't see the new 747 Advanced getting off the ground.
 
Leskova
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 7:09 am

These lines sum it up best...

Sutter's reputation in the world of big airplanes was such that Boeing executives took him along on their most important sales campaign for the 747X -- to Singapore Airlines.

Top airline officials greeted Sutter as if he were an engineering god.

Singapore Airlines, however, ordered the A380.



However impressive his past achievements are - they are the past.

Should Boeing upgrade the B747-400 into the B747 Advanced, then his words about the B747 outliving the A380 have a small chance of becoming true... should, as I think is about a 50:50 chance right now, Boeing decide not to upgrade the B747, then the absolutely only chance for it to happen is for the A380 to turn into a complete failure - which is rather unlikely.

Regards,
Frank
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Planesmart
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 7:53 am

Taking Sutter to SX just about sums up B marketing in the last 5yrs. SX officials would be extremely polite, and their engineering staff would be very impressed to meet a legend. But they would be thinking, why is he here?

In terms of good marketing....... It's like bringing out the B photo album. Look at all the great models we have produced..........

But this is 2005. We only want to know about you're great 2005 and future models. Tell us about the 747ADV.

You take personalities to customers when you haven't much to say. In marketing speak we refer to them as 'fillers' or 'diversions'.

SX employ some of the best negotiators in the business, and they would have given clear feedback to SX senior execs - B have / will have nothing to offer against the A38. They also hate having their time wsted too.
 
N79969
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 1:04 pm

I think Boeing's vagueness about the future of the B747 is very calculated and deliberate.

In the next two years or so, the A380's real performance will be known variables. Once they figure out mission profiles in which the A380 shows vulnerability to airplanes with fewer seats, Boeing can (and I think will) re-design the B747 to knock out the lower end of A380 market. There is no reason to act before the A380 racks up some service hours.

A lot of people like to point to the B747's age as evidence of the design's obsolesence. While certain technologies and design features are surely out -of-date, the design is fundamentally sound, reliable, and profitable for operators.

Why substantially change something that has worked so well for so long and promises to keep doing so?
 
lnglive1011yyz
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 1:17 pm

Did you really expect him to say anything other than what he said?

Honestly.

This just fuels the whole A vs B thing even further HAHA

Ford isn't going to congratulate Chevy for building a newer, revolutionary function for a car.

GE isn't going to congratulate RR for building a more efficient engine.

My oh my.

1011yyz

Pack your bags, we're going on a sympathy trip!
 
N79969
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:21 pm

Joe Sutter is not some two-bit salesmen. He indeed does congratulate the competition for the engineering achievement as have some other Boeing executives. As the article states, he is known for being incredibly blunt and is a world-renowned engineer. Since he has been telling it like it is for 50 + years apparently, he has no reason to change form now. And of course he is proud of the legend he helped create.
 
MD-90
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:55 pm

While the 727 did not have a single man driving its development forward as a project to the extent that Sutter was the "father" or the 747, Sutter is also the person who could be considered the most significant developer of the 727.


At least, I think it was Sutter. I don't have my book with me here at school to confirm that.

[Edited 2005-01-23 09:56:20]
 
col
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 5:58 pm

Joe Suter is one major reason we have the 380. The 747 has done extremely well, and Joe's comment on customer satisfaction is the one critical point. Carriers flying the 380 offering good comfort at a good price will see the demise of 744 operations, unless Boeing do the 747ADV.

Someone commented that Boeing could be doing the waiting game on 380 performance prior to 747ADV, I agree this could be a smart move as long as the line is kept going.
 
Udo
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:00 pm

Very interesting. I think what may be the downfall of the A380 is that it may not be profitable as a cargo plane

FedEx, UPS, Emirates and several other interested airlines may disagree on this…  Insane


and that there is only a few carriers such as Emirates, Singapore or Cathy Pacific that can use it. Time will tell.

Huh? Air France, Korean Air, Lufthansa, Malaysia Airlines, Qantas, Thai and Virgin cannot?  Wink/being sarcastic
Btw, nice to see you already agree on Cathay as a hot A380 candidate...  Smile/happy/getting dizzy


"Twenty years from now," Sutter said last week," it could be that the 747 is the airplane that's left and the A380 has also disappeared."

The first to disappear is that guy himself, then follows the B747. Simple as that.



Regards
Udo
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cyclonic
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 6:00 pm

The more I read these topics obviously posted by Boeing fans, the more this whole thing reeks of sour grapes. Thats not to say that the Airbus fans aren't as bad, because they are too, but...

C'MON GUYS, GET OVER IT ALREADY! Let the planes tell the story, not your disgruntled attitudes. I, for one, have had enough.
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greaser
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 7:23 pm

FedEx, UPS, Emirates and several other interested airlines may disagree on this…

I believe he meant high density high weight loads, not packages. Also, Airbus shut the door on the relatively small yet significant market that requires it's nose/tail to swing open to place oversize loads for the side doors. I'm not well-versed in the cargo area of things so maybe someone else can elaborate.
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glideslope
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 10:34 pm


Very interesting article. I never thought about the possible cargo configuration issues. Really makes one think.
To know your Enemy, you must become your Enemy.” Sun Tzu
 
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Francoflier
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 10:41 pm

There might still be many doubts about the A380's commercial success, but there sure was a lot more of them when they first flew the 747!!

I've been told It turned out fine, and the bet was a much greater one then...
I'll do my own airline. With Blackjack. And hookers. In fact, forget the airline.
 
GMUAirbusA320
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Sun Jan 23, 2005 11:50 pm

Jeez, that article is like asking George W. if Iraq was a mistake. HAHAHAHA!

Yeah, give the 380 a few years. I think some of us in the US are paranoid that someone else MIGHT have something better. Lets see how it goes. Everyone get out the boxing gloves...it's going to be brutal.

Cheers,
GMUAirbusA320
 
jaysit
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:11 am

A very interesting article.

However, when Sutter states that all the "other" big jets developed at the same time as the 747 have disappeared from the market, but that the 747 remains he is overreaching and glossing over reality.

For one, the 747 is the only aircraft in its class, i.e, in the 350-450 passenger class, for the past 35 years. It had no real competitors in that class, per se, especially as demand for travel skyrocketed with the advent of wide-bodied transports in the 70s. The DC-10 and the L-1011 pretty much destroyed each other competitively, and by the time they exited, there were numerous other options in the 200-300 passenger class of transports: the AB6, 763, 777, A330 and A340. The reason the 747 pretty much stayed on top of its game was because the competition didn't challenge its supremacy.

And lets remember that Airbus wasn't around back in 1968. But lets say that Airbus' gamble with the A300 paid off. I remember how Boeing pooh-pooh'ed the wide-bodied twin-engined medium-haul concept when the AB3 was first launched. Well, that concept has paid off for Airbus - and Boeing.

Needless to say, the fact that the 747 still remains the yardstick by which all commercial transports are judged by the travelling public says a lot for it. I still think its a fantastic airplane and go out of my way to fly it over the competing Boeing or Airbus models.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
UAcsOKC
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 12:21 am

You can't say Airbus is not well versed in cargo aircraft- they use an outsize version of their own aircraft to fly fuselage setions to their assembly plant. but the 380, I believe, was not designed for cargo. It was design to create and fulfill a market for super large aircraft. If they'd intended it as a heavy cargo carrier, they'd have designed it that way. Boeing should stick by their plane, ultimately the high floor loading could keep it successful as a heavy frieghter.
I love the rumble of a 727 takeoff in the morning!
 
clipperhawaii
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:16 am

Funny, I have the distinct feeling that more people will have flown a 747 airframe than a A380 when it's all said and done. That will be a very interesting fact if true 30 years from now.

The first to disappear is that guy himself, then follows the B747. Simple as that.

In timeline yes, but his influence on the 747, the traveling public and Airbus itself is nonpareil. No Sutter, no Airbus A380. It's as simple as that!




"You Can't Beat The Experience"
 
OldAeroGuy
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:18 am

As an aside, the father of the 727 was Jack Steiner.
Airplane design is easy, the difficulty is getting them to fly - Barnes Wallis
 
jaysit
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:31 am

Funny, I have the distinct feeling that more people will have flown a 747 airframe than a A380 when it's all said and done. That will be a very interesting fact if true 30 years from now.

And probably true, given that there will be several wide-bodied transports available 30 years from now.

However, if air travel in places like China and India really take off, you may find domestic A380s flying several daily domestic roundtrips between Indian and Chinese metros and operating purely as large-scale people movers much like the way 747s operate between Japanese cities today.
Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
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mariner
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 1:58 am

I'm not sure what any of this proves.

The 747 was a fantastic achievement, but is time to stand still?

Are we to say, hey, the 747 was great, there should never be another aircraft of similar of greater capacity?

is the 747 to be the end of line for jumbo's?

What a dull old world that would be.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
jaysit
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 2:22 am

Are we to say, hey, the 747 was great, there should never be another aircraft of similar of greater capacity?

I believe that what Boeing is asserting is not that an aircraft of greater capacity is not needed ever again, it's just that at this point in aviation history such an aircraft MAY be a white elephant. Clearly, Boeing's belief is that greater point to point traffic bypassing major hubs is how airline traffic will evolve over the next few decades. Under such a scenario, traffic growth can be met with aircraft in the 777/A340 and - 7e7 - size range.

Atheism is Myth Understood.
 
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mariner
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 3:28 am

Jaysit:

In this case, it isn't Boeing saying anything, it is an intereview with Sutter, and he doesn't mention point to point flying.

If, as Mr. Sutter says, there is room for both the 747ADV and the A380, this would seem to throw the Boeing position out the window.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
Udo
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 4:32 am

In timeline yes, but his influence on the 747, the traveling public and Airbus itself is nonpareil. No Sutter, no Airbus A380. It's as simple as that!

I have never questioned his influence on the development of large aircraft in total. However, saying that the B747 - a design from the 60s - survives the A380 goes way too far.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 4:55 am

Airbus has much to thank Boeing for in the 747. Without it the A-380 would not have ever been developed. As such, Udo, every single time the A-380 lifts off, you and everyone else should remember that.

Much the same with the 2 engine widebody. Boeing needs to remember that the 767 and 757 were only produced after EA began to show what the A 300 could do in that category.
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mariner
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:02 am

Dayflyer:

And the 747 owes much to the 707 (and even the Stratocruiser), and the 707 owes much to the Comet, and so it goes.

It is called progress.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
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sebolino
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:06 am

Airbus has much to thank Boeing for in the 747. Without it the A-380 would not have ever been developed.

The A380 was developed to catch a market segment, I don't see where you wanna go. Finally, after having said it was impossible then stupid then ugly and then not interesting for airlines, the hardcore Boeing fans will say that the A380 is an American industry success ? LOL.
 
Udo
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:14 am

Airbus has much to thank Boeing for in the 747. Without it the A-380 would not have ever been developed. As such, Udo, every single time the A-380 lifts off, you and everyone else should remember that.

There's truth in it, just see reply 25, Dayflyer. But as Mariner said, the A380 following the B747 is an example for normal progress.


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
M27
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:27 am

"- a design from the 60s - survives the A380 goes way too far."

Udo, that is your opinion, just like what Sutter said was his opinion. I believe I had just as soon take his opinion as yours. When you design something that surpases the 747, or even when the A380 surpases the 747, then you will know! Until then, you are just blowing smoke.

", the hardcore Boeing fans will say that the A380 is an American industry success ? LOL."

Sebolino, when the A380 sells 700 aircraft, then maybe American industry will try to take credit for it. Right now, I don't think American industry has any desire to take credit for designing it.

Some of you guys are sure setting a high goal for the A380. Sometimes I think you are trying to convince yourselfs more than anyone else.
 
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mariner
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:38 am

M27:

"Some of you guys are sure setting a high standard for the A380."

Or perhaps they are just being defensive in the face of relentless negativity from the Boeing/747 supporters.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
M27
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:42 am

"M27:

"Some of you guys are sure setting a high standard for the A380."

Or perhaps they are just being defensive in the face of relentless negativity from the Boeing/747 supporters. "

So Mariner, I take it that you agree with me in principal!
 
lehpron
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 5:57 am

N79969 : >>"I think Boeing's vagueness about the future of the B747 is very calculated and deliberate. "<<

It could be a bluff, on the other hand, I donno 'bout A350.  Smile

>>"In the next two years or so, the A380's real performance will be known variables. Once they figure out mission profiles in which the A380 shows vulnerability to airplanes with fewer seats, Boeing can (and I think will) re-design the B747 to knock out the lower end of A380 market. There is no reason to act before the A380 racks up some service hours. "<<

Does the phrase "long-term" mean anything to you? A380 was NOT designed to combat capacity issues in short term; it WILL have empty seats on certain routes. That cannot be concluded as overkill because this plane is designed to occupy capacity aims for the next 20 YEARS, maybe longer. Boeing's current management (not whomever ran the company 40 years ago) is not interested is that kind of commitment, too risky. Look at 7E7, its entire program is less than a decade before the first plane goes into service; the shorter the better for them or for anyone technically who looks for a quick fix.

>>"A lot of people like to point to the B747's age as evidence of the design's obsolescence. "<<

Then those people are idiots looking to scapegoat. The issue is rate of capacity in certain markets, there are many ways to combat this; Airbus choose theirs and Boeing choose another, there is no competition.

>>"While certain technologies and design features are surely out -of-date, the design is fundamentally sound, reliable, and profitable for [current] operators. "<<

Note what I added to make your statement true, you have to take time into consideration, lots of it; life is never constant -- expect change.

>>"Why substantially change something that has worked so well for so long and promises to keep doing so? "<<

Worked for so long? Therefore, the future is just like the past. Moreover, what promises to keep doing so, the product or the market? Markets are supposed to run companies, not the other way around and since the market is getting bigger faster, after a while (few decades) it is simply not worth the money.

That is why those whom have made purchases of A380's have done, so they won't have to make purchases and agree to little upgrades every so often like a costly version of Microsoft's Windows XP updates. Carriers can use that space anyway; they please up until they need it for capacity some time in the next decade instead of buying it every damned time. Many people will fly; just because the current 2005 numbers are not big enough does not mean it will stay that way long enough for the 747 to "keep doing so".

Even I realize that an even larger capacity airplane will have to replace A380 sometime between 2020 and 2030, but I am not going to gripe that it will never happen because history told me it happened twice before. On the other hand, keep this in mind, the creators of the 747 thought that the world would be filled with supersonics and those who did not fly them would take the 747's economical style. I am willing to bet an SST variant unlike we have ever seen will exist by that time because size of plane will be an issue with increasingly growing markets. I, in a way, do not think the A380 will be replaced.

I am also betting that the SST will be an American product. Boeing owned the 1960's to the 1990’s; Airbus took over the 90's and so far the early 2000's. I think Airbus will keep it despite the 7E7's progress up until about 2018, by the then current management of Boeing would have learned the mistakes of the early 2000 Boeing and have aim at replacing size with speed and take back the market by 2025.

On the other hand, it may not be Boeing that does it, who knows.

That is what I think.  Big grin
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.
 
Udo
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:08 am

When you design something that surpases the 747, or even when the A380 surpases the 747, then you will know! Until then, you are just blowing smoke.

If we all agree on this then every single opinion is just blowing smoke and we can close the forum…  Insane


Some of you guys are sure setting a high goal for the A380. Sometimes I think you are trying to convince yourselfs more than anyone else.

Though I think the A380 will be a success I’m well aware of possible risks of the project. And I do certainly not try to convince myself about my opinion…  Yeah sure


Regards
Udo
Me & You & a Plane Named Blue...
 
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mariner
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:49 am

M27:

"...I take it you agree with me in principal.."

No. What has happened, especially over the last few days, has been extremely interesting.

I am neither European nor American, neither pro or anti Airbus, or pro or anti Boeing.

I think the 747 was a tremedous achievement in aviation and I am old enough to remember the "rush" that accompanied its introduction to the world.

Since then, I have not experienced anything similar to that "rush" until now, with the "revealing" of the A380.

Yet the attendent negativity from many Boeing and 747 supporters reminds me of the negativity I saw towards the 747 from many supporters of, say, British aircraft manufacturers.

I understand issues of patriotism and jingoism - and It is all ludicrous to me. Whatever way you slice it, whatever the A380 may become, it is a remarkable achievement.

Does it change the nature of civil aviation as much as the 747 did? Probably not - but then not everyone thinks that the change was for the better.

It is progress, that is all. To say that the A380 is a remarkable achievement is not to take a single thing away from the 747.

cheers

mariner
aeternum nauta
 
M27
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 6:55 am

Udo:

So it is your opinion then! I refer to this"However, saying that the B747 - a design from the 60s - survives the A380 goes way too far." It really didn't sound like an opinion the first time around.



I know it was your opinion. I just wasn't sure you still knew that.

By the way, I realized when I read your quote of me, that it should have been YOURSELVES instead of yourselfs. I apologize, I certainly should have read more carefully and used spell check.

By the way, I do believe you feel the A380 will be a success, and I don't know that you are not right!

Regards


 
clipperhawaii
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 7:21 am

However, saying that the B747 - a design from the 60s - survives the A380 goes way too far.

Huh????

Anyway, all this silliness. Fact is the 747 is proven. The A380 is not. I'll post the "Father of A380 Chimes in on ***" in 30 years. LOL


That's what this post was all about anyway. One mans opinion who was behind what we know as the greatest Jumbo jet from way back in the 1960's.

Oh yeah and..

Regards,
ClipperHawaii
"You Can't Beat The Experience"
 
lehpron
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RE: Father Of The 747 Chimes In On The A380

Mon Jan 24, 2005 8:01 am

>>"Fact is the 747 is proven. The A380 is not"<<

Based on the 'do what works' business mentality nowadays, Airbus is following the proven ideology of the 747 and therefore will succeed because it has worked in the past.

A380 is only 25% more than the 747 and they are still jumbo jets -- no different. Do what works. Imagine Boeing and Airbus as the same company, A380 is just a derivative of the 747, isn't it somewhat? Humor me.

Quit being cynical, sit back and enjoy the ride.  Big thumbs up
The meaning of life is curiosity; we were put on this planet to explore opportunities.