CAL
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Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:35 am

Well I know there was a post earlier this year that we were supposed to hear an announcement by the end of January on who was going to get the "China Routes" to Beijing and Shanghai. Well its the end of January and no announcment yet. Who do you think will get the rights. Will it be AA, DL or CO. Who exactly has to approve them on the US side and the China side. Also the rumor is that if continental was to get them they were going to opt for another 777 they have yet to receive. How fast could they get the 777. Cant wait to hear what you guys think.

Will it be:

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OR

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[Edited 2005-01-30 21:39:02]
CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
 
alb222
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:40 am

I think DL will get the 2006 authority because flying out of ATL would be opening a new territory.
CO should get the 2005 as UA already covers what AA wants out of ORD.............but who knows............it is all a guess until the word comes.
 
CAL
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 7:02 am

I agree with you I think it will be Continental just because it will be linking the New York area. Atlanta would defiantly be the runner up. AA has no chance out of ORD. But hey, who knows..........
CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
 
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STT757
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:31 am

The announcement is coming in Feburary.

[Edited 2005-01-31 00:31:45]
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
jacobin777
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 10:32 am

politics always plays a big role, and if I can recall...AA had a lot of politicians behind them....I wouldn't be surprised if they won, but I think CO or DL will probably get it........which sux for me as an AAdvantage member....
"Up the Irons!"
 
B6FA4ever
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 2:08 pm

as much as i would love it but i highly doubt Hawaiian Airlines will get it. as mentioned...politics will play a huge role in the decision making of who will get it.

CO, DL, and AA can get a big business and leisure market out of the routes as Hawaiian will only get the leisure travelers since HNL is not really a big business center compared to EWR, ATL, and ORD.  Sad

good luck to all of them though!!!  Smile

~B6FA4ever
 
iowa744fan
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 2:51 pm

One thing has always stuck in my mind about these discussions.

CO should get the 2005 as UA already covers what AA wants out of ORD

agree with you I think it will be Continental just because it will be linking the New York area. Atlanta would defiantly be the runner up. AA has no chance out of ORD

The fact that UA already operates the ORD-PVG route that AA wants to operate seems to be a common argument here. However, by the same reasoning, could we mention that Air China flies nonstop between JFK-PEK (not sure of frequency), and CO would be offering some competition. What do you all think?

Also, one other question. Are there only going to be seven new slots awarded this year? I was curious because I still keep reading about how UA wants to start flying from SFO-CAN by this year. If there were 14 slots available like last year, I would imagine that UA would stand a pretty decent shot at getting seven for this service (which would be good news for them). However, if there are only 7, I would imagine that the new carrier would be awarded all of them. Does anyone know how many PASSENGER slots will be awarded this year?
 
scotron11
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 3:34 pm

I remember reading that the decision was supposed to be announced on Jan 20. But the only big announcement has been the Open skies with India.

Regarding the ORD-PVG route: I believe UAL was awarded this route in 1998 but didn't start operations until last October. Was that a "use it or lose it" situation? Or fear of competition from AA?
 
JoFMO
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Mon Jan 31, 2005 10:20 pm

There is one big difference between CO and CA. One carrier is from the USA while the other is Chinese.

There are soem nice statistics in the internet. And one says, that 45% of all traffic between the USA and China is in fact between California and China. After CA, New York the the next biggest market for travel to China. The question is, if the USA wants that all this traffic is handled by a Chinese carrier. Chicago in itself is has more than enough service. Most of it's traffic is connection traffic, especially from the East Coast.
 
MAH4546
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 2:00 am

AA has no chance out of ORD. But hey, who knows..........

AA is the favourite and has the most political support. In the end, it is likely that AA will get seven and CO will get seven.
a.
 
aa777jr
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 2:36 am

AA is the favourite and has the most political support. In the end, it is likely that AA will get seven and CO will get seven.

There are a godzillion lobbyists working day and night to make sure AA gets more routes in the Pacific. Look for AA to recieve some new routes soon.

ORD-PVG?
ORD-HKG?
ORD-PEK?
A liberal is a man who is right most of the time, but he's right too soon.
 
iowa744fan
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 2:43 am

Scotron11,

I am not sure when UA got the rights to fly to Shanghai, but they were only awarded the 7 additional slots last year and thus had the ability to start ORD-PVG. Well, they could have discontinued SFO-PVG, but that would make no sense. I don't think that it was a fear of competition....instead they saw an route with opportunity.

JoFMO,

Does the US government have much of a say in this decision? If so, then I could see the validity of the argument. If not, then wouldn't China consider protecting their airline on that route? I have no doubts that the route can support two airlines with two daily flights (again, I don't know the frequency of Air China's flights).

MAH4546,

AA is the favourite and has the most political support. In the end, it is likely that AA will get seven and CO will get seven.

Yet this would go against the agreement between the US and China of one new passenger carrier per year. By the way, does this mean that there are 14 slots up for grabs this year?


AA777jr,

Yep, you gotta love having the president from the state with your airline's HDQ!
 
goCOgo
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 3:09 am

Yep, you gotta love having the president from the state with your airline's HDQ!

So where is CO headquartered?

the agreement between the US and China of one new passenger carrier per year

One authority is for this year, the other is for next. So the routes could be split.

[Edited 2005-01-31 19:11:48]
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
CAL
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 3:36 am

Does anyone have a date?
CAL........Continental Airlines....... Work Hard, Fly Right
 
iowa744fan
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 5:20 am

GoCOgo,

Too many things on my mind! Thanks for correcting me.  Smile Just kept thinking about the past reports of AA giving a lot to Bush.

As for the routes though, are there 14 or 7 new slots to be awarded this year?
 
goCOgo
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 5:49 am

Iowa744fan

No problem. Just remember, CO has a hub at George Bush Intercontinental (named for Sr.). Don't ask me which the Prez. prefers.

There are only 7 slots this year to open this spring. This spring, AA wants ORD-Shanghai, CO wants EWR-Beijing. For next spring (2006), there are 7 more slots, DL wants ATL-Beijing, CO wants EWR-Shanghai. I also believe Hawaiian and North American are in the running to the 2006 authority. I think each authority is rewarded individually, i.e. we can't see ORD-Shanghai and EWR-Beijing, or ATL-Beijing and EWR-Shanghai.

As far as AA's political support, they say in a release "26 U.S. Senators and 78 U.S. Representatives Top the List of Backers ... seven of the nation's governors have sent letters to the U.S. Department of Transportation in support of the airline's request to become the next passenger carrier awarded the right to fly between the United States and China. ... Additional letters of support for American's China application also have come from dozens of city, county and state officials, chamber of commerce leaders, economic development organizations, labor unions and businesses in Illinois and 16 other states." While this is strong, it is not a majority. If they said 51 senators, or governors from 26 states gave there support, I would be impressed. But we have no way of knowing if CO or DL is getting a similar level of support.
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
ckfred
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:04 am

Back in 1988, AA management had to decide which favorite son of Texas to back, George Bush for President or Lloyd Bentsen for Vice President. Management went with with Dukakis-Bentsen. So, when the ORD-NRT route came up for a second U.S. carrier, UA got it, even though the DOT analysis said that AA was clearly the better choice.

Why? Politics of course!

That's why AA has a reasonable shot. I've often heard that most of the traffic going to Shanghai is business oriented, while Beijing tends to have a higher percentage of leisure travelers.

If this is true, then it might have some bearing on whether AA or CO gets this year's slots.
 
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STT757
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:18 am

"The fact that UA already operates the ORD-PVG route that AA wants to operate seems to be a common argument here. However, by the same reasoning, could we mention that Air China flies nonstop between JFK-PEK (not sure of frequency), and CO would be offering some competition. What do you all think?"

Since the US is making the decision, they would rather have a US carrier compete against a Chinese carrier rather than two US carriers competing against one another. Also having a US carrier on the NY-China routes is more of a priority than loading Chicago up with even more flights on the same routes.
Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:19 am

Look for AA to recieve some new routes soon.

ORD-PVG?
ORD-HKG?
ORD-PEK?



AA already has authority for ORD-HKG, and you can bet they'll be opening that this year should they lose on the PRC rights (they may even do it regardless).
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
AeroWesty
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:27 am

If AA is sitting on ORD-HKG and HNL-NRT rights that they haven't even begun service with yet (yes, I know there are slot issues with NRT), there's little justification to grant them additional rights to simply sit idle.

:: kick 2¢ in ::
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drerx7
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:32 am

GoCoGo--Continental is headquartered here in Houston. IAH is there largest hub as well.
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:44 am

there's little justification to grant them additional rights to simply sit idle

As you said, NRT has slot issues....

....and HKG is an entirely different bilateral issue than the PRC, and AA had justified reasons for sitting on their rights in the recent past.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
goCOgo
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:48 am

Drerx7

I was asking that question rhetorically in response to an assertion that AA might get the route because, like AA, Pres. Bush is from Texas.
"Why you fly is your business, how you fly is ours"
 
drerx7
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:55 am

Ahh yes--I just skimmed the thread, thus missing the alusory comments--but in response to that, his dad lives in Houston. Either way I think this will have little impact on the outcome of this ruling. It will be on the lobbyist for the airlines on capital hill.
Third Coast born, means I'm Texas raised
 
hgh
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 4:04 pm

More airliners, much cheaper---hope so~~~
 
Carpethead
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:04 pm

Lets not forget that UA is applying for NRT-CAN with future shift to SFO-CAN, but this award will be highly unlikely against the other petitions.
 
AussieItaliano
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:41 pm

Regardless of whoever gets the slots, I strongly advise everyone to go to China. I was just there a few weeks ago, and Beijing is a wonderful city with a lot of history and a rich, vibrant culture.

I would like to see CO get 7 and AA get 7. Although UA would like to start service to CAN, they are partners with CA, so they could give their passengers access to that city via PVG and PEK. Also, even though CA flies JFK-PEK, it would be nice to see more service from NY, the largest city in the US and China. The reason why I think that CO should get it over DL is because although ATL is huge it would be out of the way to fly through ATL from most of the US. In fact, flying ATL-EWR-PEK is along the way, and both are Skyteam members.

The AA routes would be another option for those connecting from the East and Midwest through ORD in addition to those provided by UA.

In the same way that MIA, IAH, and ATL are good gateways to Latin America, I think that SFO, ORD, and NYC are good gateways to China that can provide convenient connecting service to the whole US.

When air transport between the US and China is even more liberalized (which it will be), then ATL would certainly be a good candidate for a nonstop) and nonstop service to CAN would as well.
Third Runway - LHR, Second Runway - LGW, Build Them Both!!!
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:14 am

The reason why I think that CO should get it over DL is because although ATL is huge it would be out of the way to fly through ATL from most of the US. In fact, flying ATL-EWR-PEK is along the way, and both are Skyteam members.

CO is applying for PEK service a year before DL is.

Also, those for whom it's "out of the way" could just as easily connect in QLA, QSF, NYC, CHI, etc.... whereas the South/Southeast has no nonstop nor same-metal direct at all.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
scf158
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Wed Feb 02, 2005 5:16 am

I think AC certainly is..... they have now plan on launching YYZ-PEK nonstop 4 times weekly....
 
AussieItaliano
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Wed Feb 02, 2005 6:26 am

ConcordeBoy,

Where are QLA and QSF? Sorry, but the cursor didn't work on those  Big grin

Also, since CO is applying for the PEK service a year before DL, does this mean that their only competitors for the slots are UA (proposed SFO-CAN) and AA (proposed ORD-PVG)? If that's the case, I think CO stands a good chance of getting the slots.
Third Runway - LHR, Second Runway - LGW, Build Them Both!!!
 
panamair
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Wed Feb 02, 2005 6:56 am

CO's EWR-PEK goes head-to-head with AA's ORD-PVG application, amongst others, to start service in 2005.

DL's ATL-PEK application is for service to start in 2006; there, they're competing with CO's EWR-PVG, amongst others.
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Wed Feb 02, 2005 7:17 am

Where are QLA and QSF?

Metropolitan IATA codes for Los Angeles and San Francisco

NYC = JFK + EWR + LGA
MFW = MIA + FLL + PBI
CHI = ORD + MDW
QSF = SFO + OAK + SJC*
....etc






*interesting to note though that while SJC is designated (by Bermuda2) a QSF coterminal for LON service, it is NOT designated a coterminal for LHR service.
Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
 
swissgabe
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Wed Feb 02, 2005 7:26 am

Good to know that by "Who" we are talking about US carriers. I thought you might talk about something else ...

Don't have Chinese Airline plans to have more frequencies into the US?
Smooth as silk - Royal Orchid Service /// Suid-Afrikaanse Lugdiens - Springbok
 
PVG
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RE: Who Is Getting The Routes To Beijing & Shanghai?

Wed Feb 02, 2005 12:35 pm

Since there's already direct JFK-PEK service on CA and UA already has ORD-PVG, doesn't it make more sense to award ATL-PEK to DL and EWR-PVG to CO?