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Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Mon Jan 31, 2005 5:46 pm

Boeing is in talks with QF about the proposed B747ADV. Boeing also talked about the B787. The B747ADV will be able to carry upto 500 passengers, and using the same engines and cockpit technology as the B787. The 747ADV will be able to fly further then 14,816 kms. The A380 can fly upto 14,800 kms.

http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Boeing-seeks-feedback-from-Qantass/2005/01/31/1107020312588.html?oneclick=true
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FCKC
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Mon Jan 31, 2005 6:07 pm

I highly doubt QF will go 747ADV , if launches.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Mon Jan 31, 2005 6:20 pm

QF have stated that the B747 will remain the "workhorse" of the QF fleet. Some of the QF B747 fleet are nearing retirment, so there is a good chance the B747ADV will be purchased.
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antares
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Mon Jan 31, 2005 6:52 pm

777ER,

Dream on. I've been to Dixon briefings. The 747ADV has no credibility at Qantas, their having been through umpteen versions of what Boeing might do to keep the line relevant to the airline's future requirements.

HOWEVER we need not be at all downhearted about the chances of the 787. They are probably getting better all the time. Qantas is a large user of middle aged 767s, and may well be tempted by all of the variants within the next seven to eight years.

I wish I could say the same for the 777-300ER and eventually the -200LR. Can't see any real signs of hope as yet....but fingers crossed.

Antares
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Mon Jan 31, 2005 7:07 pm

I'm not the one dreaming about the B747ADV, Boeing is the dreaming one.
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Planesmart
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Mon Jan 31, 2005 8:15 pm

Should probably read Boeing is in talks with QF about the 787. Boeing also talked about the proposed 747ADV.

I'm sure it came up for about 60secs.

There have been at least 11 variations of a proposed 747ADV since 1999, and Qantas are probably unlucky enough to have had their time wasted looking at most of them.

Unless there is a white knight out there willing to place a launch order of 30-50, it isn't going to happen. Even B can't decide how big, how advanced, how much 787 v 777 commonality.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Mon Jan 31, 2005 9:44 pm

That would be the same QANTAS that bought the passenger version of the 744ER so out of those "11 variations" they're talking to the one airline that actually bought one, ok, not the Adv but an upgraded 744, same day as they bought the A380 too. I believe QF would have spent more than 60 seconds deciding on a $1bn fleet investment.

Regards
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 12:18 am

VERY LIKELY they will if Boeing builds one.........

They publicly stated that the B 747 will remain as the key aircraft. Also they ordered some B 747-400ERs. I am sure they will be interested in the B 747 Advanced.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 12:30 am

If I were QF I would tell Boeing to put a new composite wing on it, along with FBW, 777 style tailcone and then we will talk. And not until then.
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 1:11 am

The B747 Advanced needs a new wing. Definitely.

Boeing must make it VERY VERY advanced.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 1:15 am

If Boeing gave it a new wing they'd have an awfully large R&D bill to meet. It wouldn't be worth it considering the size of the market and realising it's being shared with the A380.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 1:26 am

I am sure Qantas doesn't have anything like that. They will say that there are certain performance and noise criteria the aircraft must meet for them to purchase it. They couldn't care less how those criteria are met.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 2:14 am

Boeing can either go for a minimal investment or a much more serious redevelopment. In the former case, they don't need to sell many to break even. In the latter case, the number needed to be sold is much higher. I'm sure Boeing right now is talking to the airlines to see which choice makes sense. My guess is the minimal redevelopment.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 2:54 am

The B747 Advanced needs a new wing. Definitely.

It isn't going to get one.

That's the thing. There's going to be almost nothing advanced about it except the engines.

QF is tired of the product.

N
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 3:11 am

QF is tired of the product.

QF have stated that the B747 will remain the "workhorse" of the QF fleet.

Ok - so who's right? QF has always been a loyal Boeing customer and seems (from what I've seen) to love the 747, but they've been ordering more and more Airbus equipment lately, too.



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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 3:18 am

I'm not always right, but QF does have a tender out for the A340-600 and 777-300ER to replace 747s in the medium term.

I say QF is tired of the product because they've borne the brunt of Boeing's 11 different marketing campaigns for new 747s over the last few years.

N
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 3:24 am

I'm not always right, but QF does have a tender out for the A340-600 and 777-300ER to replace 747s in the medium term.

Only the B 747-300s, not 400s. And the B 747-300s have just recieved their upgrades and they will not be leaving anytime soon.

Boeing will probably design a new wing in my opinion to attract more customers
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 3:43 am

Your opinion doesn't really matter on this. The 747 Advanced being offered does not feature a new wing.

They've offered customers 11 different 747s in the past few years, the first few had all new wings but customers simply weren't willing to pay the price.

The one being offered now is a very low change model. Two plugs and new engines, and that's it. No new systems, no FBW, no different materials, nothing.

N
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 3:49 am

> FCKC: I highly doubt QF will go 747ADV , if launches.

What is this based on? Your hunch or blind loyalty towards Airbus?
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 5:04 am

Boeing isn't officially offering anything yet, I think they are merely trying to feel potential customers out again for what they might want, it's amazing how little actual FACTS there are in this thread....


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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 5:24 am

I'll add a few firm facts about the 744ER.

Boeing offered the jet to induce Qantas not to buy the A380. But the price for the 744ER (which is a damn good plane) was so low, Qantas bought both, and made Seattle look real dumb.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 5:36 am

Here's to hoping said talks come to nothing.

The Hunchback of Puget Sound deserves a bullet through the head, and then an honorable sendoff.

Boeing is a master of ingenuity-under-pressure, let them find something more worthy (or perhaps even revolutionary) to carry on as their flagship  Big grin
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 5:55 am

That's the thing. There's going to be almost nothing advanced about it except the engines. as well as new cockpit technology that the B787 will have.

I'm not always right, but QF does have a tender out for the A340-600 and 777-300ER to replace 747s in the medium term.
Only the B 747-300s, not 400s. And the B 747-300s have just recieved their upgrades and they will not be leaving anytime soon.
The tender is for the B743s and some of QFs oldest B744s

The one being offered now is a very low change model. Two plugs and new engines, and that's it. No new systems, no FBW, no different materials, nothing. The B747ADV will use the same cockpit technology that will be used in the B787

Your opinion doesn't really matter on this Gigneil, everyones opinion matters. Please refer to rule #1.
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:37 am

Whilst I believe that some airlines see a need for an airplane of 747ADV size I don't think that it can be a 747Adv. The 747 was certificated on 30 Dec 1969. Type certificate A20WE. This TC covers all 747 models. The -400 version was certificated to Amendment 25-59 except for some 28 exceptions. One of these exceptions - Damage tolerance and fatigue evaluation - was at Amd 22. A 747ADV would still be at Amd 22 for damage tolerance because they would need a new structure to meet today's standards which are near Amd 100. I don't think that either the FAA, European nor Australian authorities will allow Grandfather rights for another version of the 747 where the structure except for the stretched upper deck is still a 1960s design. I have been told that this is one of the reasons that the -500 was dropped as Boeing had to admit quietly that they didn't know if they could convince the FAA to accept Grandfather rights yet again. Even if they could modify the -400 enough to convince the authorities and the airlines and at reasonable cost, they would perhaps have the A380-700 to contend with. Remember the 747SP was developed to keep the DC10-30 out of certain 747 markets.


Ref:
http://www.airweb.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgMakeModel.nsf/MainFrame?OpenFrameSet
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:38 am

I'm not always right, but QF does have a tender out for the A340-600 and 777-300ER to replace 747s in the medium term

Gigneil you are right. They have an RFP out for A346 & 773ER with a decision expected around May, I believe. Correct me if wrong on decision timing.

Boeing offered the jet to induce Qantas not to buy the A380. But the price for the 744ER (which is a damn good plane) was so low, Qantas bought both, and made Seattle look real dumb

Antares. That is a fact, no doubt. If I may differ a little in my interpretation though. IIRC one of the Boeing sales team admitted that the loss of the campaign did "hurt" though that was more that they went with the A380 & A330. From a financial point of view Boeing still did ok as at that time each 747 delivered contributed $.08-$.12 per share to Boeings earnings* and Airbus could have walked away with the entire order.

Back on topic and one quote from the article stands out:

"They have (also) expressed an interest to us in the Boeing 777-300ER and we have just mentioned this airplane to them, 747 Advanced

That covers it well, a Boeing executive being quoted as saying that they put the concept to QF while responding to the 773ER RFP. Later in the article Mr Feren then says:

"We're having conversations with airline customers, we're putting together what we think is a concept that we're going to take to the market place and we will see what feedback we get,"

Product development involves that and given QFs current 744 fleet and that they were launch customer for the 744ER it's quite understandable that Boeing would target them. We've heard nothing from QF though. I think Mr Feren's main reason for being in SYD is in response to QFs RFP and to pitch the 773ER and 787. It would be good to have a more substantial report though.

Just my $.02

Regards

* Source: Boeing Co. SEC & Regulatory Filings

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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:44 am

I hope the 747ADV goes through...once the 717 production is done, the only ones left will be the 767, 777, 737, and 747 (with the 767 probably ending once the 787 is online).
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:45 am

I think if QF had not purchased A380's they probably would go for this. Flying an A380 and 747ADV side by side does not make sense to me.

T.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 6:53 am

I could see Qantas going for the 747ADV due to a number of factors but what is more exciting for Qantas would be the 787 purchase. I understand that noise levels of the 787 will be significantly lower than most current aircraft, possibly allowing it to fly outside strict Australian airport curfew times. This would be a big leap in service for Australian and especially Sydney.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:00 am

I disagree with some of you that the wing for the 747AVD needs to be a new design. It's a good design still as it is. Although switching out the triple slotted flaps for double ones would be a good idea, and easy since they have already done it with the SP. It will give the aircraft the range it needs, it will keep the R&D costs in check which in turn will keep airlines acquisitional costs in check, and for airlines that already have the 747 in their fleet, it will keep maintenance costs in check.

I like the idea of a newly designed wing, but it just doesn't make good business sense to do so.

However, I think that FBW should be considered. Yea, I know, that will raise R&D costs, but the I believe the benefit will out weigh the costs in that department.
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:09 am

QF have already made a decision. It's called the A380.

The A380 will replace the 744's on their highest density routes. This will free up a few 744's to replace the 743's. Expect to see them gone by 2010 if not before.

The RFP that is out now is for the 773ER or the A346. That will replace the ageing 744's as they come up for retirement.

So with A380 & A346/773ER for long haul...why on earth would they want a 747ADV???

the 787 has more of a chance...even then I wouldnt hold my breath.. Boeing doesn;t seem to be the flavour of the month with dixon and his bean counters
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:12 am

Ozair, They will never be allowed to operate these aircraft in the curfew hours in SYD, it would open up a can of worms that no government, nor community group in this country will allow.
As for the 747 Adv if it happens and QF why not ?? It fits the gap between whatever QF get in the 773/346 category and the 380. There is a large gap in the seating available that the 747 fits superbly, while even with just the new engines the economics of the aircraft will be of value. The aircraft would fit the bill as the eventual replacement for the early 744's flying to LAX, JNB, FRA,BOM and just about every other place they fly to now.
Actually I can even see QF ordering a freight version of this aircraft as well if they decide to do their freight flights in house instead of subbing them out to Atlas and the like.
RL
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:35 am

The B747 Advanced needs a new wing. Definitely.

Why? It is more aerodynamically efficency than many wings built in the last decade... though structurally speaking I'm sure there is room for improvement with new materials.

Boeing will probably design a new wing in my opinion to attract more customers

They probably won't, a new wing involves a huge investment. Boeing can likely meet their aerodynamic goals with a new, cost-effective wingtip... It remains to be seen if Boeing's goals are in line with customer's goals.

QF have already made a decision. It's called the A380.

With QF's buying habits.... you must be kidding. Committed to a fleet type? I'm sure that's what the first Mrs. Trump thought...

So with A380 & A346/773ER for long haul...why on earth would they want a 747ADV???

They have zero aircraft on firm order, they have committed to nothing. Why is it absurd to think they might re-think their strategy if Boeing proceeds with a new 747 variant...
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 7:52 am

Jupiter2, I was under the impression that certain aircraft were allowed to operate during curfew times due to low noise levels?

In regards to the 747ADV, there is just too much of a gap between the A380 and the 773ER-A346, something has to fill the gap and the 747ADV could be that plane.
 
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 8:04 am

United Airline, your posts are full of hearsay and opinions that really have very little logical basis which you then classify and assert almost as fact.

Do you know how much a new wing costs? Do you know what price Boeing will have to offer the B747A at in order to meet those costs? Right now, the B747A is about as realistic as a paper plane I make up now. Just having a new B787 cockpit and having FBW doesn't decrease seat-mile costs by enough to make the plane worth getting.

If the B747A is launched, nope, I can't see QF ordering it, not when they've put out an RFP for the B777-300ER or the A340-600/-600HGW. They have 6 B743's and 8 x 2 class B744's that I would say would need replacing. The 2 class 744's are in a 66J/366Y configuration, which works occasionally, but if they ran a 2 class operation, it would likely be more economical to run the A346 or the B773ER in off-peak season when fewer economy seats are filled. I think QF need that smaller aircraft in order to open longer, thinner routes with reasonably high yields. The B744 is just too much aircraft for that type of route. And with QF putting A380's into service on the routes that have high F and J class demand (LHR, HKG, LAX etc.), then the B744 becomes a little superfluous once the 744 has reached end of its useful life.

So QF has 14x B747's it wants to eventually replace, and in the long term it will have to look for a 763 replacement. The question then becomes more interesting. Boeing, if it has any sense at all will pitch the B773ER *with* the smaller B787. Airbus may go the other way and offer attractive deals on more A380's and more A330's (or A350) if they go with the A340-600/-600HGW. I say the A346HGW because by the time QF want them, the -600HGW will have come out and been operational with EK at least.

But leaves us with an interesting question. Does QF go with the B773ER (which is a truer B744 replacement than the A346 in terms of pax capacity - both planes trounce B744 in the cargo department) and the B787 with a view to replacing their B763's as well? Or does QF go with the A346/A346HGW and more A333's (or A350's - A333's more likely because available in the short-term) in order to expand in the international sector?

Boeing pros and cons:

Pros - perceived technological advances in the B787, B773ER more of a true replacement for the B743 and B744 than the A346/346HGW. Alleged promises of better fuel economy in the B787.
Cons - 2 new fleet types. Although this will be less of a factor when the 763 is retired, there's plenty of life in the 763's yet.

Airbus pros and cons:
Pros - commonality with current A330-200/-300 and A380-800's in fleet (333's were delayed in order to share exactly common cockpit with A380). Likelihood of better financial terms.
Cons - Will see reduction in capacity on an aircraft-by-aircraft comparison against the B773ER. A350 is long way off. A330 too big for Australian domestic runs (trans-cons excepted)

Dixon's statements recently about QF having to be less Australian is interesting. Will he abandon everything in Australia (except the main business corridors like SYD, MEL, BNE, PER, ADL) to Jetstar? If this is the case, then the Airbus case is a bit stronger.

It's a tough one either way. I find the introduction of another fleet type could be a bit too expensive and I think QF may feel the same way. Expect Airbus to put a really good deal to QF and Dixon the number cruncher will take it. As good as the B773ER and B787 could and should be, the Airbus combo of the A330-300/A340-600HGW/A380-800 is probably a bit too powerful.

I think QF will eventually order 12 x A340-600HGW (reduced capacity on this class of aircraft will be taken over by the A380), 4 x A330-300's (for regional expansion and extra frequency) and maybe 2 more A380's (good deal). Some of these may be options. The numbers of planes I see is of course pure speculation but having thought about it, it seems to make a lot of sense. Some will disagree of course and I'd like to see where you do  Smile

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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 8:05 am

Before I quote myself from another thread, I can't pass up the opportunity to have a pop with DfwRevolution. Sir, you cannot claim that QF play it fast and loose when it comes to buying planes ("Committed to a fleet type? I'm sure that's what the first Mrs. Trump thought..." - funny though). Remember that after they parked their 707s in 1979, Qantas were the only airline in the world to fly the 747 as the sole type in the fleet for nearly a decade, til they got some 767s in the late 80s. Granted that when TAA joined the fold, there were some unwieldy combinations ie A300 and 767 for a brief time. But for ages after that they've been a solid 737/747/767 airline, and the A330 is only online to pave the way with engineering and flightcrews for the A380.

(I have a suspicion that Qantas got the A330s by accident: Airbus were so amazed to get a staunch Boeing customer for the A380 that after signing the deal for the double-decker, the Airbus reps and Qantas folk all went out in Toulouse and got really hammered - you know what the French are like with booze, not to mention the AUSTRALIANS. So the Qantas guys are like, "You fucking frogs are alright, you know that?" And the Airbus guys are like, "Ah, monsieur, your patronage of our grande avion makes us weep like Charles Aznavour. As a token of our nouveau l'amour pour l'Australia, please have ze A330, she is like a young girl, ready to baisez vous." "Steady on there Jaques!" "Mais non, you MUST have her!" until 5am.)

May I also point out that since Qantas already have 747-400ERs with the 777 interior and flightdeck cup holders, they are the one airline least interested in a "747ADV", since they've already bought some. For the Boeing fans out there, I am happy to report that I went on an Antarctica sightseeing mission on New Years Eve on a Qantas 747-400ER and not only was the flight delightful (from the new interior to the shitfaced Aussie lesbians snogging in zone E) but the pilot, with whom I had a long chat, said the extra power and range (400mi if memory serves) was considered useful, not just on a 15 hour roundtrip to the South Pole but on SIN/LHR and SYD/LAX and other longhaul sectors. The -ER is more fuel efficient as well. But like I said, they've already got some and they're not going to want too many varients, just get another 10 -ERs in exchange for a few of their normal -400s I would think.

This is from another 747ADV thread which I think should be borne in mind here as well.
One thing rarely mentioned here is that airliners are very expensive machines to carry on the balance sheet, so the smaller the depreciation of the assets (planes), the higher the value on the balance sheet for that particular asset. If you buy a popular jet at the beginning of it's product life (ie A320s in the early 90s), as long as the resale price stays strong, you're rocking. If you buy the last plane to roll off the production line (ie Delta with the 767-400, Continental with the 757-300), the depreciation kicks in almost immediately. I reckon a 10 year old A320 will sell today for a price much closer to it's purchase price than a 1 year old 767-400. No airline will want to be lumbered with the last 747, they're the most capital-intensive purchase an airline can make and if it's going to be worth bugger-all in 15 years time when they look at selling it, they're not going to buy it in the first place. A 15 year old A380, A346 (or in fairness, 777-200ER) is an infinitely better investment, because they'll probably still be in production and desirable. We're talking about hundreds of millions of dollars on each jet, and remember it's not just ONE plane, it's more like TEN or TWENTY. Not whether to put an extra sprig of parsley on the salads.
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 9:18 am

>>"The B747ADV will be able to carry upto 500 passengers..."<<

Up to huh? Damn no room for change there. Can't modern 747's do that anyway or is the package deal for range w/Trent 1000 type engines?

To be honest I feel 747Adv is a niche market that will expire within 10 years (unless Boeing plans another minor stretch or might as well get an A380 the first time...), what is the point of extendig the factory line if it may not fly long enough to take that into advantage?
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antares
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 9:45 am

Let me explain why I think the 787 is growing in favour for a Qantas order.

It becomes available when on current growth Sydney is starting to look like a real problem in terms of convenient scheduling.

The 787 is ideal for linking Canberra to Singapore, Bangkok and Hong Kong, all of which will be established QF A380 ports by around 2010. So good connections, and a lot of time saved not to mention aggro connecting via Sydney or even Melbourne.

With higher ETOPS ratings, the 787-8 would be a great jet to link Canberra to LAX, and it also has the characteristics that would fit frequent Australia-India services to more ports than Mumbai.

Meanwhile the 787-3 is the logical replacement for 762s on inter city and trans Tasman routes.

While I admire Airbus for delivering on the promises made for the A345 and the later examples of the A346, they have no answer at this stage to the competitive amenity of the 787, which is at least as amenable as the A380.

That's why I think the 787 will become an important part of the QF fleet, even though I'd rate a 744ADVANCED as exceedingly unlikely as an addition.

Antares
 
cedarjet
Posts: 8101
Joined: Mon May 24, 1999 1:12 am

RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 9:59 am

Canberra to LAX? To Hong Kong? Dude, you're tripping. Have you actually visited your nation's capital? You think a few five-storey office blocks and a teeny parliment justifies ten hour (or in the case of LAX, 15+) longhaul service? Flights to SYD, which is the main int'l transfer point for CBR, are mostly Dash 8 prop services.

Instead of such ill-founded speculation, I urge you all to reread my description of the "negotiation" between Airbus and Qantas that resulted in QF ending up with a fleet of A330s: Reply #34, para 2. I thought it was pretty funny and I'm heartbroken that no-one seems to have noticed.

Next.
fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
 
gigneil
Posts: 14133
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:00 am

Gigneil, everyones opinion matters.

Not when the facts are contrary. No matter what United Airline's opinion on Boeing's tactic in re: a new wing for the 747-ADV, it isn't happening and is not going to happen. That was my point.

I agree with the sentiment that, for it to be fully competitive, the 747A needs a new or heavily modified wing, but that doesn't matter either.

N
 
gigneil
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Joined: Fri Nov 08, 2002 10:25 am

RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:05 am

Meanwhile the 787-3 is the logical replacement for 762s on inter city and trans Tasman routes.

The 787-3 holds almost 100 more seats than the 762, and will feature the same long turn times as the A330.

N
 
antares
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:20 am

Cedarjet,

I trip a lot and I think you're totally out of touch with what is happening both in the capital and at Sydney. Convenient new slots are going to be very hard to get at Sydney if it continues to grow at just under 10 % a year.

There are hundreds of pax ex Canberra to international at Sydney every day, many of whom get mangled by the Qantas inefficiency at arranging transfers with enough time built in. I prefer to transit over Melbourne for that reason.

I should have mentioned that Brisbane would also benefit considerably from a proliferation of 787 sized long range services.

Antares
 
N1120A
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Joined: Sun Dec 14, 2003 5:40 pm

RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:22 am

>So with A380 & A346/773ER for long haul...why on earth would they want a 747ADV???<

Because as it is, the 744 has lower seat mile than the A346/773ER and the 747ADV will cut those even further.

>Can't modern 747's do that anyway or is the package deal for range w/Trent 1000 type engines?<

They can actually hold up to 660. The 747ADV would likely be capable of about 700-740 if they really went nuts

>With higher ETOPS ratings, the 787-8 would be a great jet to link Canberra to LAX<

You don't need higher than ETOPS 180/207 for Oz-LAX, but I doubt Canberra will get the service
Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
 
QANTASforever
Posts: 5794
Joined: Tue Apr 03, 2001 6:03 am

RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:32 am

Cedarjet -

He might not be as high on drugs as you think.
There has been talk for some time about upgrading CBR for international heavy flights. The logic is by connecting the airport to a high speed rail link with Sydney - Sydney can solve it's supposed second airport dilemma.

Oh - and teenie parliament? Try one of the largest buildings in the southern hemisphere.

QFF
Fighting for the glory of the Australian Republic.
 
QFA001
Posts: 651
Joined: Sat May 27, 2000 6:47 am

RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:34 am

QF is tired of the product ... I say QF is tired of the product because they've borne the brunt of Boeing's 11 different marketing campaigns for new 747s over the last few years.

Rubbish. QF will buy the airplanes that make the most economic sense across its network. So, whether it's 11 (which it's not) or 1,011 variations, QF will be interested in any possible outcome that it believes will improve its bottom line.

The 787-3 holds almost 100 more seats than the 762, and will feature the same long turn times as the A330.

It will be, however, faster than either of those airplanes...  Big grin
 
scotron11
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 10:56 am

It seems this 747ADV concept raises a lot of comment. Maybe this was the true so-called "dreamliner"!

I am excited about the 747ADV as I absolutely love the 747. But, having finally seen the A380 uncovered, I'm kinda in agreement with Concordeboy: Maybe it's time for Boeing to get their fingers out and start the revolution with totally new aircraft.
 
irishpower
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 12:03 pm

Regarding the whole "new wing thing---(hey that rhymed)"--I wouldn't be so sure Boeing won't design or upgrade the wing. Right now the 747ADV. concept is still in the development stage and everyone ,including Boeing, knows that a new wing could really make a difference with regards to performance.SO......

What if (to help control costs) they get the Japanese involved to help design and manufacture it. I'm sure JAL and ANA would order 40 or 50 747ADV. to help them replace older 744's.

Just a thought!!!
 
DAYflyer
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 12:10 pm

Ok time for my two pennies worth here. I don't know sqaut about QF, have never been down under and have never flown anywhere on that airline, but IF I were Boeing:

1-Do EXACTLY WHAT YOU DID WITH THE 787: Float some real ideas, get customer input and a feel for potential orders and prices; design it around cutomer wish list.

2-Design a complete replacement for the 747 around number 1 above and heavily incorporate the new 787 technology into the design, not just the engines. A re-confirgured or advanced 747 is almost as dumb as an A-350 that is nothing more than a modified A-330.....

3- Offer great pricing at a smaller profit per copy to get bulkier business. Give your preferred 747 operators a nice break and they may just surprise you, with or without the A-380.

After you get enough "Letters of intent" quietly under the table, announce the launch, not before. Sandbag a few and crunch the numbers first, then launch the airplane.



One Nation Under God
 
PVG
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 12:56 pm

Can I ask a stupid question? Why does it cost so much to develop a new wing? I mean, couldn't they just refine an existing design and use more modern materials to create the desired effect? I really don't know, but would like to understand if someone would like to explain.

Another thing I don't understand is that with a total population of about 20 million and the potential for new competition on international routes, how much demand could there be in Australia for an A380 sized aircraft? Can the demand for air travel to/from Australia be that great? I know that it's a popular tourist destination, but still, seems like a small market to require such a large plane.
 
gigneil
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 1:20 pm

Because as it is, the 744 has lower seat mile than the A346/773ER and the 747ADV will cut those even further.

Lower seat mile costs are possible, but not guaranteed. SAA is getting a greatly improved trip cost over their 744s.

but IF I were Boeing:

They've done everything you've mentioned. Everything. Got no takers. Nobody is interested in paying for a plane that's freshly developed, and Boeing isn't willing nor able to spend money without guarantees.

It just isn't going to happen.

N
 
User avatar
ClassicLover
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RE: Boeing In Talks With QF On B747 ADV

Tue Feb 01, 2005 1:21 pm

Australians tend to fly a lot.

Part of the reason is because the country is so large that flying is usually the cheapest and best option to get anywhere. When Australians need to do business with people from other countries, we have to fly there because we aren't linked to any other countries by land.

Apart from that, we're quite a "rich" country, meaning that a good proportion of the population can afford to fly overseas. In addition, there are many "working holiday Visa" arrangements between Australia and other countries, so a lot of people under 30 will fly overseas to work in another country for several years.

Many factors as to why the market can support the A380. Besides, 500 passengers per flight isn't really that many.

Wings are so expensive to design because you each wing is unique to the aircraft that it is on. It would not be efficient to have the 777 wing on a 747, because the 747 is shaped differently and many aerodynamic factors come into play.

To design a new wing, you don't only have to pay your designers for their time, but you need extensive wing tunnel testing and design tweaking, build the wing, flight test the wing to make sure performance guarantees are met, tweak anything wrong, then get the whole thing certified with the airframe and engine combinations.

The wing is the most complex part of an aircraft structure, and therefore the most expensive. It isn't just something "easy" to redesign a wing, or modify an existing design. Even small modifications take many months of testing before being offered - just look at winglets as an example. They are usually tested for months on a prototype to analyse fuel burn etc before being offered for sale - and this doesn't even count the design beforehand.

Trent.
I do quite enjoy a spot of flying - more so when it's not in Economy!