juventus
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"Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 10:49 am

The January issue of Airline Business Magazine, has an article on the A380.

The A380 program director responding to the size and orders "We have great order expectations. Any 747 order, is a potential A380 order ". If the difference is more than 200 seats, I don't think they should be compared.

On a related story. The article also said that Boeing has not received an order for the 747-400 (passenger configuration) since 2002. Is the production line open just for the cargo sector?

 
trex8
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:04 am

The last orders for passenger 744s were for 4 for CI in 2002 and 2 have been delivered already and IIRC the other 2 are due this year, MH supposedly has 2 still on the books from a previous order for delivery in 08 and 09. Wanna bet those never happen?
 
juventus
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:21 am

Is it safe to say that if the 7E7 project does not materialise, Boeing will only produce the 737 and 777. wow, how the tables have turned.
 
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N328KF
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:23 am

Wow, Juventus, you have a penchant for the overdramatic. "How the tables have turned?" I think at this point the 787 is a done deal.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
MidnightMike
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:44 am

Juventus

The 787 will happen, almost 200 orders. 737 & 777 programs are going very strong, plus, you have the 767 Tanker Program & the 737 MMA program going.
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juventus
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:08 pm

I guess I'm the only one who looks at the glass half empty. Like most Americans, I'm a boeing fan, but I think the wide-body market will eventually go to Airbus.
 
Newark777
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:11 pm

I guess I'm the only one who looks at the glass half empty

I guess you are. Actually, it is more like you are looking at a glass that is almost full as almost empty.

Harry
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aviationwiz
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:16 pm

If any 747 order is a potential A380 order, then any A330 order is a potential 787 order, and so on and so forth... kind of a stupid comment to make from the A380 program director.
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Sjoerd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:18 pm

The point is that Airbus is betting on 2 future trends (A350 and A380) and Boeing 's money is only on one (B787) so far.

Sjoerd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:25 pm

No, they're betting on the hub-centric trend. If they were betting on the other one, they'd scrap the A330/A340/A350 altogether and do a new airframe from scratch. What they're doing is trying to save what sales they can hedging against Boeing's (so far successful) attempt to cut into a segment where they were not quite prepared.
When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' -Theodore Roosevelt
 
B2707SST
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:47 pm

Boeing has said that half of all 747s produced before the mid-1990s were sold for their range, not their capacity. The arrival of long-range 300-seaters like the 777 and A340 has taken a big bite out of 747 sales, which have obviously slowed pretty dramatically. Even if the A380 takes most of the rest of that market, will it be enough to recoup a $15 billion investment?

--B2707SST
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Sjoerd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:48 pm

I partially agree that A is playing catch up and it remains to be seen how successful they are with the A350.

The A350 is not some cheap derivative just because it will have the same fuselage dimensions, it will have a completely new wing (with a higher degree of composites than in the B787 one) and new engines, meaning pretty much a new aircraft. Development costs are about 5 bn usd. Not too much is known about the A350 but A is smart enough to make it competitive with the B787 and they still have time to make adjustments.

You can't deny that Airbus has a product for each future trend and that Boeing does not.

On the other hand it would have been stupid of Airbus to launch something like the A350 before Boeing launched the B787. Their products (A332 and A333) were outselling Boeings product (B767s) so there was no need to invest as there was no real competition. They were (and still are and will be for the next 3.5 years) making a lot of money with them. When B acted A reacted (they saw the need, were able to and had the will to) !

I think there is a need for a middle sized long range aircraft and a very large long range aircraft in the future. Airbus offers both types, Boeing only offers one type.

Airbus is definitely not betting on the hub trend alone !

Sjoerd

[Edited 2005-02-03 04:56:25]
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avek00
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:54 pm

"The A350 is not some cheap derivative just because it will have the same fuselage dimensions, it will have a completely new wing (with a higher degree of composites than in the B787 one) and new engines, meaning pretty much a new aircraft."

No, new engines and new wings do NOT equal a new aircraft, period.
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Sjoerd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 12:59 pm

It says pretty much a new aircraft.

Sjoerd
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trevd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:35 pm

So Sjoerd - by that same reasoning do you agree that the 737NG is also pretty much a new aircraft ??
 
Sjoerd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 1:47 pm

Yes, hence it's success. Hopefully the A350 is as successfull !
By that same reasoning do you agree that the A350 has a good chance to be a success ?

Sjoerd

[Edited 2005-02-03 05:49:49]
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
trevd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 3:37 pm

Sjoerd - Yes I do, but only if they follow through and do the upgrades necessary to make the airplane competitive.

I've seen numbers from both manufacturers on the A330 and the 7E7 and I'm convinced that Airbus must react to the 7E7. Otherwise Boeing will run away with the entire middle of the market and instantly obsolete the A300, A310's (I know, gone anyway), but also today's current A330 and A340-200's and -300's. So Airbus must respond - and quite frankly, I give them credit for reacting as quickly as they have in recognizing the threat.

But to be competitive, they are truly going to have to do a complete overhaul of the A330 product and offer similar 7E7 technology engines, the new wing, and improve overall structural efficiency (i.e. fuselage). If they do all that, then yes, I do believe the A350 has a chance of being a success!!

Regards,

Trev
 
AvObserver
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:09 pm

"kind of a stupid comment to make from the A380 program director."

I agree. There's been at least airline interest, if not yet launch orders, for BCA's 747 Advanced proposal. I think that's because some of these airlines would prefer a nominal 450 seater, not 550 or so. The A380 has stolen many 747 sales but it won't necessarily take all of them. If a carrier knows it can't fill 500+ seats, it might look for something a bit smaller but comparable in other aspects. Whether the Adv. gets launched is still in doubt but for airlines to be looking at it, there must be some interest in having a somewhat smaller airplane than the A388. Even a difference of 100 seats, not just 200 or more, seems significant. Not everyone will want to 'misuse' the A380 like Singapore to fly fewer than 500. The current 744 for passengers may be a lame duck but a tweaked, reengined 747 stretch seems to have appeal for many that aren't quite ready to join the superjumbo club, if it's price is kept reasonable.
 
ual747den
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 4:55 pm

You won't hear too many good things about Airbus from me so read closely it might be the only time!
Now it should be obvious that Airbus is going to have the best large aircraft on the market. Even if Boeing makes the 747ADV it will not be as good as the A380. Boeing would make it for 2 reasons. 1) Fleet commonality 2) Less people. Boeing is playing catch up on this project. If an airline can save a little by buying the A380 over the 747ADV but they have an all Boeing fleet, would they add the Airbus and all the costs that come along or just use the Boeing? I think that most would use the Boeing and that is what Boeing is trying to figure out right now! If Airbus is the only maker out there than the airlines dont even have a choice and Boeing is just giving customers away.
Now as far as the 787, Boeing is producing the best aircraft for this market. Airbus is catching up. Airbus will make the A350 because they do not want to just give the market to Boeing. Would an all Airbus airline want to add the Boeing, NO! Would they pay a little more to have to Airbus? YES, and there it is that is why one is making the other. If they didnt they are giving up the market and its hard to get back what you have given away.
/// UNITED AIRLINES
 
leelaw
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:03 pm

Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Planesmart
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 5:39 pm

UAL747DEN

'If an airline can save a little by buying the A380 over the 747ADV but they have an all Boeing fleet, would they add the Airbus and all the costs that come along or just use the Boeing? I think that most would use the Boeing and that is what Boeing is trying to figure out right now!

At the moment airlines have the choice of a 744 ('80/90's technology/efficiency) which B can heavily discount (all R&D and associated costs amortised) or A38.

If B develop a 744ADV, they can make a few changes that produce the easiest (cheapest benefits), like new engines, tweak wing, lighten structure. It will produce benefits over the 744, but cost more than a 744, and be a short life (interim) improvement for customers, with high degree of commonality. It could be ready in 2008/9. But who wants it? Quite frankly this version of the 747ADV could be a retrofit to existing aircraft, something no doubt that B are concerned about. Conversions occur instead of new sales.

The other option is a much more drastic change. This version of the 747ADV would offer A38 operating efficiencies, or better. Delivery in 2010/11, depending how much of a new model it really is.

But if B are delivering a 747ADV in 2011 (with no R&D/production & start-up costs amortised), and A are delivering A38's (with a high % of R&D/production start-up costs amortised), A has the ability to discount (just as B can do now with the 744), where B won't be able to.

That shifts lifetime ownership costs in favour of the A38, and allows SQ for instance to operate one model instead of 2 (immediate savings), and the financial penalty of operating a 550 seat aircraft with 450 passengers, versus a 450 seat aircraft with 450 passengers shrinks.

B are now trying to gain support for something between these two extremes, with little interest. I haven't encountered a single client that is seriously looking at the 747ADV, or believes B is serious either. The one qualification is, if A38 performance isn't as expected. If this happens, the expectation is that sales of both the A38 and 787 will halt, pending A38 solutions and 787 performance.

UAL you mention a 'Boeing fleet'. Are we talking 747ADV commonality with other 747's? Apart from the B name, the current model range is anything but common. The 747ADV design team (or perhaps other more senior influences)can't even decide whether cockpit commonality will be based on 744, 777, 787 or something else.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:25 pm

The point is that Airbus is betting on 2 future trends (A350 and A380) and Boeing 's money is only on one (B787) so far.

You and Airbus keep thinking that and you'll wake up one morning very shortly here and find you've had your asses handed to you on a silver platter while you spent all of your available investment money on a 550 pax single use aircraft.
 
NumberTwelve
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:28 pm

B 7e7, maybe you are a little disgruntled?
Maybe you cool down a little, dude?

A gets subsidies and B doesnt! (need a laugh?) So there is enough money for A  Wink/being sarcastic
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Boeing7E7
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:42 pm

Nope.. Just being straight up. If Airbus thinks Boeing is going to build the 787 as an orphan aircraft and people want to think that then they will wake up one morning after Boeing has announced an entire line of new, more efficient aircraft seating from 100 to 350 passengers and have absolutely no response, and no way to respond other than play catch up and make quick modifications to existing airframes. Just like Boeing has had to do in the last few years.

It's just a simple observation of the situation.
 
LifelinerOne
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 8:57 pm

No, new engines and new wings do NOT equal a new aircraft, period.

Well, maybe nice to know that the A350 fuselage will also be new. The same size, but constructed with the low-weight glare. Glare has been used for the first time on the A380.

So the A350 will have:

* A new lightweight fuselage with glare components
* A new wing
* 2 new bleedless engines

Does it count now as a new plane?

Cheers!
Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
 
Adria
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 9:55 pm

it's nice to see that Airbus is not making the same mistake Boeing did at the beginning when they underestimated the competitor







 
NYC777
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:13 pm

the A350 won't have bleedless engines, they will use the same engines as the 787 but they will use bleed air. Thus they won't be removing the duct work and other bleed air support systems thus that weight will still be carried along. The 787 will be bleedless becuase it is designed from the outset to be bleedless the A350 is derivative of the A330 which uses bleed air. To redesign the A350 to be bleedless would entail a wholesale new design and would cost significantly more than $5bn.
That which does not kill me makes me stronger.
 
juventus
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:43 pm

Nobody is playing catch up. Its two manufacturers going head to head. Right now, Airbus is ahead. But like everything in aviation, it is SUBJECT TO CHANGE.
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Thu Feb 03, 2005 11:45 pm

Nobody is playing catch up.

So that's what the 350 is.
 
Sjoerd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:45 am

If Airbus thinks Boeing is going to build the 787 as an orphan aircraft and people want to think that then they will wake up one morning after Boeing has announced an entire line of new, more efficient aircraft seating from 100 to 350 passengers

You are imagining things about the future, you don't know what Boeing will do and especially what they are able to do. They even couldn't develop the B787 on their own !

I am looking at the present situation and what's currently on offer, you are not.

Sjoerd
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
leelaw
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Air

Fri Feb 04, 2005 12:55 am

"They even couldn't develop the B787 on their own !"

What's inherently wrong with Boeing entering into partnerships, joint-ventures, and consortiums if that advances its interests?

Wasn't that type of organization the genesis and remains the ongoing ethos of Airbus?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
mrocktor
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:28 am

"Nobody is playing catch up.

So that's what the 350 is."

You are far behind and you start running faster, if the other guy speeds up as well that doesn't mean the other guy is catching up to you. You are still behind until you actually overtake him.

mrocktor
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 1:37 am

I am looking at the present situation and what's currently on offer, you are not.

Way to go proving my point! Thanks!  Smile/happy/getting dizzy
 
Sjoerd
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 2:20 am

I am looking at the present situation and what's currently on offer, you are not.

Way to go proving my point! Thanks!


What else can you do when you're not Boeing or Airbus ? You're speculating about something that might or might not happen. Do you think A is going to sit by and watch ?

What's inherently wrong with Boeing entering into partnerships, joint-ventures, and consortiums if that advances its interests?

A outsources as well but not at such a large scale as with the B787.

The problem with massive outsourcing is that your profits are smaller (they go to the other companies as well), meaning less money available for future investments (for developping new products).

Sjoerd
Flanders + Wallonnia + Brussels = the UNITED STATES of BELGIUM
 
leelaw
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Air

Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:28 am

"The problem with massive outsourcing is that your profits are smaller (they go to the other companies as well), meaning less money available for future investments (for developing new products)."

Thanx for setting me straight. I was under the mistaken impression that the main rationales for outsourcing and risk sharing partnerships were to increase efficiency, reduce costs, and maximize profits so the lead company can concentrate on high value activities like R & D and design, rather than lower value activities like manufacture and assembly. Apparently all the hand wringing about corporations lining their pockets and maximizing profits on the backs of workers through outsourcing is unfounded?
Lex Ancilla Justitiae
 
Boeing7E7
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:31 am

Do you think A is going to sit by and watch ?

That's pretty much all they can do, for about 3-4 years.
 
Rj111
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:32 am

I often wonder If A and B do sincerely belive in their market forecast, or if they just made them up afterwards to promote/put down their or the opposition's products.

I'm sure they do have slightly different ideas on the future market but i think PR completely blows the opinions out of proportion.
 
wingman
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 3:46 am

Here's a more accurate way of loking at things IMO. Some say Boeing is down to the 777, 737 and new 787. They've just taken serious charges in closing the 717 and 757 lines. Next up will be the 767 unless the Tanker program materializes. So you have three major programs going presently at Boeing with two lesser programs (747 freighter and possbily ADV) and the 767 with trickling production but a major program still in play over the next 2-3 years (Tankers).

Now look at Airbus. While they've outsold and outdelivered Boeing over the past two years by decent margins, they are also focused on 3 major programs (just like Boeing!). These are the 320 series, the 330 and 380. With the advent of the 350 my guess is that Airbus will be shutting down two programs in the next 3-10 years, namely the 300 and the 340. Sure some will argue that the 330 and the 340 are the same production line but still very different segments. Bottom line, each company is selling 3 primary jet programs. I hate to see people disparage Boeing for selling only the 777 and 737 lately when Airbus has only been selling two primary lines as well: the 320 and the 330. Now both are pushing a third line of new aircraft, the 787 and the 380. And to whit, let's not forget that Boeing is still the one with the last all new frame in the air (the 777) and as soon as Airbus gets theirs in the air (the 380), Boeing will be countering yet again with the 787.

This company is not dead. They've taken some serious body blows but I think their game plan is sound. Same goes for Airbus, but let's not forget they also have some lackluster and/or dying programs just like Boeing. In a few years they will be facing the same serious charges that Boeing has just been through with the 717, 757 and perhaps the 767. The latter will survive as a tanker though because I still don't see the Pentagon and McCain handing $100B+ to the EU for 330s under present trade imabalances and such a poisoned political atmosphere between France and the US. I mean, can you imagine France and Germany buying 100 C17s? It would never pass the "national interest" litmus test.
 
Planesmart
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 4:00 am

Agree Wingman.

Don't rule out an A36 version of the A35.
 
lazybones
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Fri Feb 04, 2005 10:06 am

Good points wingman, I think the lines boeing are closing will actually allow them to base all future a/c on the 787 platform. But they need the 787 to launch and be successful first before they can do this. Also this would allow Boeing to offer similar commonality to its fleet that Airbus do. Airlines don't need a selection of 717/737/747/777/747/MD11 etc. They just need a smaller more flexable selection to meet their needs and keep costs down.

I think the patent on the sub 200 seater wide body is a sign that the 737 is next for the axe (not for a while), to be replaced by a short 787. Who knows they might even have a 4 engine version in the future to compete with a340 and avoid ETOPS.

But in short, Boeing isn't dead! nor has it clipped its wings, consider this a restructure to remain competitve in the future. Just like any big company does.
 
RIX
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Sat Feb 05, 2005 7:43 am

"Who knows they might even have a 4 engine version in the future to compete with a340 and avoid ETOPS." - it's about 787, isn't it? I'd rather see stretch "787-technology" possibly 4-engined version of '777NG'. Even if not, 777 frame definitely has a huge potential. I simply can't understand how it can be ignored when discussing what Boeing has "for future"...
 
ConcordeBoy
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RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

Sat Feb 05, 2005 8:00 am

I often wonder If A and B do sincerely belive in their market forecast, or if they just made them up afterwards to promote/put down their or the opposition's products.

To have you answer for that, just observe what the manufacturers do instead of what they say:

  • if Airbus truly believed that hub-hub was the only way of the future, they wouldn't be offering the A350.

  • if Boeing truly beleived that there was room to compete in the 500seat+ market in the next decade or two, they'd be doing it.





    Who knows they might even have a 4 engine version in the future to compete with a340 and avoid ETOPS

    One way or another, ETOPS will most likely be an inconsequential concept by the time these new generation aircraft are flying commercially en masse.
  • Faire du ciel le plus bel endroit de la terre c'est impossible sans Concorde!
     
    lazybones
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    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Sat Feb 05, 2005 10:37 am

    777 frame definitely has a huge potential

    Yes it does, but if the 787 performs as expected, then the 777 could easily be superceded by the 787 in much the same way the A350 will supercede the A330.
     
    CORULEZ05
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    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Sat Feb 05, 2005 12:35 pm

    NO comparison..........a 747 order can NOT be considered a potention A380 order. They are very different planes.......A380 offering much more than the "classic" 747. Love both, just comes down to what they airlines need and that's how the decide which one to order..........
    Fly jetBlue today!!!!!!!
     
    astuteman
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    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Sat Feb 05, 2005 5:54 pm

    Corulez05

    I certainly agree with your point that 747 and 380 are different aircraft.

    From a point of view of establishing POTENTIAL marketplace for the A380, though, I would have thought that looking at existing 747 users is the logical place to start. (Can't think of anywhere else, off the top of my head....)

    I suspect if I was Airbus CEO, I'd be looking for my programme director to have the attitude that ANY 747 order is a POTENTIAL A380 order, fully recognising that, in many cases, that aspiration will not be realised, as the needs of the carriers are different.

    Would you say its realistic that his real goal is to punch the A380 into as big a market as he can? So won't he necessarily look at all 747 users to see how far he can push the boundary?

     
    AvObserver
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    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Sun Feb 06, 2005 12:46 pm

    "Well, maybe nice to know that the A350 fuselage will also be new. The same size, but constructed with the low-weight glare.

    So the A350 will have:

    * A new lightweight fuselage with glare components
    * A new wing
    * 2 new bleedless engines

    Does it count now as a new plane?"

    No, because the fuselage ISN'T entirely new. Though the previous aluminum alloy skin panels will be replaced with GLARE and also, perhaps, lightweight lithium aluminum also used in the A380, the internal structure will be the same as on the A330, another reason it can't get down to the 787 in weight. And as related above, the engines will have to be bleed-air variants of those designed for the 787 because the basic A330 systems aren't being overhauled. Though substantially changed in many ways, the A350 is most definitely a derivative, NOT a new design. Cost effectiveness had to be a consideration here, even though a clean-sheet design would have been preferable.
     
    RIX
    Posts: 1589
    Joined: Thu Aug 03, 2000 4:46 am

    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:18 am

    "if the 787 performs as expected, then the 777 could easily be superceded by the 787 in much the same way the A350 will supercede the A330." - if both 787 and 350 perform as expected, they, yes, may supersede 772/ER. What I mean by huge 777 potential is both present 773 frame (as well as 772LR/F) and potential '777NG' that may use 787 technology. Much lighter, with a new wing, it still can be stretched, expanding to 400+ market, and a '773/774NG' combination may be an absolute winner, with no competition at all from any 2-4-2 airframe. Sooner or later, 744 needs a replacement, and don't expect airlines to jump for A380 for 400+ seater, nor A340/350 or B787 to be overstretched...

    As for 350 to supersede 330 - it was said somewhere else that those who don't need range of 350 will be still happily buying 330. It's 345 who faces real threat, and all '340NG' family may end up same "supplemental product" to 350 as 342/3 was to 330...
     
    Ken777
    Posts: 9048
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    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Wed Feb 09, 2005 3:12 am

    A potential order for a 747 "may" be a potential order for a 380, or it may be a potential order for a 777. The 747 fits rather nicely between the two, which makes it potentially attractive to airlines. Not everyone is going to want to "abuse" the 380 and fleet management will want a 747 option, just as they want an option of a 767 or 777 (787 or 777 in the future) for a particular route.

    I believe that Boeing has two priorities after the 787 gets into prototype production. The first is the 747ADV, which I consider critical to Boeing, even if they sell the pax version just above break even. Just as important is getting the jump on A for a 737E. As soon as the wind tunnel work is finished on the 787 there is no reason not to ramp back room engineering efforts on this plane, with a few friends (like WN) invited to make some initial suggestions.

    In general I believe we are entering a time where A & B will need to move faster to introduce new technologies. The 737E would be the first (but not the last) rapid conversion. A is going to need to follow just as fast with their 32X line. With the 350 A is in the unique position of having prospective customers ask "If you are going to improve one version of the 330 why aren't you improving ALL versions of the 330?" That's the conversion speed I believe airlines are going to expect and both A & B had better be ready to respond.
     
    lazybones
    Posts: 159
    Joined: Thu Jan 13, 2005 7:32 am

    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Wed Feb 09, 2005 12:55 pm

    potential '777NG' that may use 787 technology

    Good idea, but it probably makes more business sense to do it the other way around. IE take what you have in 777 and use it in the 787. Make it a family with commonality allowing crews to fly more models of the 787 on a single type.

    I don't think the A345 is at risk from A350 because of ETOPS. And also I reckon A is scheming on another stretch of the A340 to fill that gap from the A346 to A387. It would make it a flying sausage and a half at just under 80 meters, but it could do 440-450 in 3 classes.

     
    greaser
    Posts: 1040
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    RE: "Any 747 Order Is A Potential A380 Order". Airbus

    Wed Feb 09, 2005 1:14 pm

    And also I reckon A is scheming on another stretch of the A340 to fill that gap from the A346 to A387. It would make it a flying sausage and a half at just under 80 meters, but it could do 440-450 in 3 classes.

    The A340-600 is already 75.3m, a stretch to fit 450 would exceed the 80 X 80 box size for the airports. I dont see this happening. If anything, it will be a A380-700.
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